AFL Predictions for Week 8
Team Ratings for Week 8
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 25.06 | 26.75 | -1.70 |
| Brisbane Lions | 22.02 | 26.20 | -4.20 |
| Western Bulldogs | 20.59 | 26.06 | -5.50 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 20.25 | 22.83 | -2.60 |
| Sydney Swans | 19.33 | 0.56 | 18.80 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 12.95 | 6.56 | 6.40 |
| Adelaide Crows | 12.56 | 15.32 | -2.80 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 9.73 | 10.24 | -0.50 |
| Collingwood | 7.16 | 11.76 | -4.60 |
| GWS Giants | 4.07 | 9.54 | -5.50 |
| Melbourne Demons | -1.46 | 1.64 | -3.10 |
| St Kilda Saints | -2.87 | -7.63 | 4.80 |
| Carlton Blues | -10.18 | -4.77 | -5.40 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -12.27 | -14.65 | 2.40 |
| North Melbourne | -13.45 | -21.71 | 8.30 |
| Essendon Bombers | -21.38 | -27.89 | 6.50 |
| Richmond Tigers | -40.01 | -29.44 | -10.60 |
| West Coast Eagles | -40.10 | -39.36 | -0.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 54 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlton Blues vs. Collingwood | Apr 16 | 83 – 88 | -19.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Geelong Cats vs. Western Bulldogs | Apr 17 | 131 – 56 | 5.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Sydney Swans vs. GWS Giants | Apr 17 | 107 – 66 | 23.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Essendon Bombers | Apr 18 | 119 – 110 | 48.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Port Adelaide Power | Apr 18 | 89 – 86 | 50.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Adelaide Crows vs. St Kilda Saints | Apr 18 | 103 – 102 | 31.00 | TRUE |
| 7 | North Melbourne vs. Richmond Tigers | Apr 19 | 130 – 55 | 18.20 | TRUE |
| 8 | Melbourne Demons vs. Brisbane Lions | Apr 19 | 104 – 102 | -15.20 | FALSE |
| 9 | West Coast Eagles vs. Fremantle Dockers | Apr 19 | 41 – 97 | -52.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 8
Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Bulldogs vs. Sydney Swans | Apr 23 | Western Bulldogs | 12.30 |
| 2 | Richmond Tigers vs. Melbourne Demons | Apr 24 | Melbourne Demons | -33.60 |
| 3 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Gold Coast Suns | Apr 25 | Hawthorn Hawks | 21.50 |
| 4 | Essendon Bombers vs. Collingwood | Apr 25 | Collingwood | -23.50 |
| 5 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Geelong Cats | Apr 25 | Geelong Cats | -26.30 |
| 6 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Carlton Blues | Apr 25 | Fremantle Dockers | 34.10 |
| 7 | St Kilda Saints vs. West Coast Eagles | Apr 26 | St Kilda Saints | 48.20 |
| 8 | Brisbane Lions vs. Adelaide Crows | Apr 26 | Brisbane Lions | 20.50 |
| 9 | GWS Giants vs. North Melbourne | Apr 26 | GWS Giants | 28.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »