United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 17
Team Ratings for Week 17
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulls | 8.87 | 8.86 | 0.00 |
| Leinster | 8.00 | 13.41 | -5.40 |
| Stormers | 6.62 | 4.17 | 2.50 |
| Glasgow | 5.37 | 6.18 | -0.80 |
| Lions | 3.93 | -1.19 | 5.10 |
| Munster | 3.51 | 3.65 | -0.10 |
| Connacht | 0.65 | -1.39 | 2.00 |
| Ulster | 0.27 | -3.24 | 3.50 |
| Sharks | 0.10 | 1.29 | -1.20 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -1.69 | -2.74 | 1.00 |
| Scarlets | -2.47 | -0.54 | -1.90 |
| Ospreys | -2.65 | -2.15 | -0.50 |
| Edinburgh | -2.82 | 2.67 | -5.50 |
| Benetton | -5.38 | -2.32 | -3.10 |
| Dragons | -9.62 | -15.66 | 6.00 |
| Zebre | -12.71 | -11.02 | -1.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 128 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Ospreys | Apr 25 | 24 – 21 | 2.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Edinburgh vs. Sharks | Apr 25 | 33 – 28 | 3.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Zebre vs. Dragons | Apr 25 | 18 – 19 | 5.30 | FALSE |
| 4 | Stormers vs. Glasgow | Apr 25 | 48 – 12 | 5.40 | TRUE |
| 5 | Lions vs. Connacht | Apr 26 | 33 – 21 | 9.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Munster vs. Ulster | Apr 26 | 41 – 14 | 2.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Benetton vs. Leinster | Apr 26 | 29 – 26 | -7.70 | FALSE |
| 8 | Scarlets vs. Bulls | Apr 26 | 21 – 23 | -5.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 17
Here are the predictions for Week 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glasgow vs. Cardiff Rugby | May 09 | Glasgow | 14.10 |
| 2 | Ulster vs. Stormers | May 09 | Ulster | 0.70 |
| 3 | Bulls vs. Zebre | May 09 | Bulls | 28.60 |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Benetton | May 10 | Sharks | 12.50 |
| 5 | Leinster vs. Lions | May 10 | Leinster | 11.10 |
| 6 | Ospreys vs. Scarlets | May 10 | Ospreys | 1.80 |
| 7 | Connacht vs. Munster | May 10 | Munster | -0.90 |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Edinburgh | May 10 | Dragons | 0.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »