AFL Predictions for Week 12
Team Ratings for Week 12
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 28.48 | 26.75 | 1.70 |
| Sydney Swans | 20.78 | 0.56 | 20.20 |
| Brisbane Lions | 19.79 | 26.20 | -6.40 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 15.89 | 22.83 | -6.90 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 15.62 | 6.56 | 9.10 |
| Adelaide Crows | 11.54 | 15.32 | -3.80 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 10.65 | 10.24 | 0.40 |
| Collingwood | 10.22 | 11.76 | -1.50 |
| Western Bulldogs | 9.85 | 26.06 | -16.20 |
| Melbourne Demons | 3.97 | 1.64 | 2.30 |
| St Kilda Saints | 0.91 | -7.63 | 8.50 |
| GWS Giants | -3.61 | 9.54 | -13.20 |
| Carlton Blues | -5.61 | -4.77 | -0.80 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -6.99 | -14.65 | 7.70 |
| North Melbourne | -13.75 | -21.71 | 8.00 |
| Essendon Bombers | -26.37 | -27.89 | 1.50 |
| Richmond Tigers | -39.51 | -29.44 | -10.10 |
| West Coast Eagles | -39.85 | -39.36 | -0.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 90 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats | May 14 | 76 – 117 | 9.80 | FALSE |
| 2 | Sydney Swans vs. Collingwood | May 15 | 81 – 75 | 24.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Port Adelaide Power | May 15 | 98 – 73 | 16.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Adelaide Crows vs. North Melbourne | May 16 | 133 – 65 | 30.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Melbourne Demons vs. Hawthorn Hawks | May 16 | 120 – 81 | -20.70 | FALSE |
| 6 | Carlton Blues vs. Western Bulldogs | May 16 | 74 – 62 | -20.40 | FALSE |
| 7 | Essendon Bombers vs. Fremantle Dockers | May 17 | 61 – 104 | -28.70 | TRUE |
| 8 | St Kilda Saints vs. Richmond Tigers | May 17 | 109 – 73 | 41.40 | TRUE |
| 9 | West Coast Eagles vs. GWS Giants | May 17 | 88 – 71 | -32.60 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 12
Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Adelaide Crows | May 21 | Hawthorn Hawks | 15.30 |
| 2 | Richmond Tigers vs. Essendon Bombers | May 22 | Essendon Bombers | -13.10 |
| 3 | Fremantle Dockers vs. St Kilda Saints | May 22 | Fremantle Dockers | 25.70 |
| 4 | North Melbourne vs. Gold Coast Suns | May 23 | Gold Coast Suns | -13.40 |
| 5 | Geelong Cats vs. Sydney Swans | May 23 | Geelong Cats | 18.70 |
| 6 | Collingwood vs. West Coast Eagles | May 23 | Collingwood | 61.10 |
| 7 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Carlton Blues | May 23 | Port Adelaide Power | 9.60 |
| 8 | GWS Giants vs. Brisbane Lions | May 24 | Brisbane Lions | -12.40 |
| 9 | Western Bulldogs vs. Melbourne Demons | May 24 | Western Bulldogs | 5.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »