AFL Predictions for Week 15
Team Ratings for Week 15
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 26.87 | 26.75 | 0.10 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 24.45 | 6.56 | 17.90 |
| Sydney Swans | 20.77 | 0.56 | 20.20 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 17.69 | 22.83 | -5.10 |
| Brisbane Lions | 13.37 | 26.20 | -12.80 |
| Adelaide Crows | 12.58 | 15.32 | -2.70 |
| Western Bulldogs | 10.87 | 26.06 | -15.20 |
| GWS Giants | 6.61 | 9.54 | -2.90 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 6.55 | 10.24 | -3.70 |
| Collingwood | 5.12 | 11.76 | -6.60 |
| Melbourne Demons | 1.75 | 1.64 | 0.10 |
| St Kilda Saints | -0.38 | -7.63 | 7.20 |
| Carlton Blues | -2.41 | -4.77 | 2.40 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -10.85 | -14.65 | 3.80 |
| North Melbourne | -18.19 | -21.71 | 3.50 |
| Essendon Bombers | -28.81 | -27.89 | -0.90 |
| West Coast Eagles | -33.44 | -39.36 | 5.90 |
| Richmond Tigers | -40.56 | -29.44 | -11.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 114 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide Crows vs. Geelong Cats | Jun 04 | 75 – 74 | -4.20 | FALSE |
| 2 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Western Bulldogs | Jun 05 | 71 – 77 | 9.20 | FALSE |
| 3 | North Melbourne vs. Fremantle Dockers | Jun 06 | 31 – 155 | -41.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Brisbane Lions | Jun 06 | 75 – 106 | 3.40 | FALSE |
| 5 | West Coast Eagles vs. Port Adelaide Power | Jun 06 | 71 – 77 | -12.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Sydney Swans vs. St Kilda Saints | Jun 07 | 104 – 102 | 37.50 | TRUE |
| 7 | Essendon Bombers vs. Carlton Blues | Jun 07 | 67 – 72 | -30.30 | TRUE |
| 8 | Collingwood vs. Melbourne Demons | Jun 08 | 75 – 83 | 5.90 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 15
Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Bulldogs vs. Adelaide Crows | Jun 11 | Western Bulldogs | 9.30 |
| 2 | Geelong Cats vs. Gold Coast Suns | Jun 12 | Geelong Cats | 31.30 |
| 3 | Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers | Jun 13 | Melbourne Demons | 30.60 |
| 4 | North Melbourne vs. West Coast Eagles | Jun 13 | North Melbourne | 4.30 |
| 5 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans | Jun 13 | Sydney Swans | -20.60 |
| 6 | Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions | Jun 14 | Brisbane Lions | -53.90 |
| 7 | St Kilda Saints vs. GWS Giants | Jun 14 | St Kilda Saints | 4.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »