AFL Predictions for Week 16
Team Ratings for Week 16
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 28.10 | 26.75 | 1.40 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 24.45 | 6.56 | 17.90 |
| Sydney Swans | 19.39 | 0.56 | 18.80 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 17.69 | 22.83 | -5.10 |
| Adelaide Crows | 17.42 | 15.32 | 2.10 |
| Brisbane Lions | 11.90 | 26.20 | -14.30 |
| GWS Giants | 6.25 | 9.54 | -3.30 |
| Western Bulldogs | 6.03 | 26.06 | -20.00 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 5.32 | 10.24 | -4.90 |
| Collingwood | 5.12 | 11.76 | -6.60 |
| Melbourne Demons | 2.89 | 1.64 | 1.30 |
| St Kilda Saints | -0.02 | -7.63 | 7.60 |
| Carlton Blues | -2.41 | -4.77 | 2.40 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -9.48 | -14.65 | 5.20 |
| North Melbourne | -18.48 | -21.71 | 3.20 |
| Essendon Bombers | -29.94 | -27.89 | -2.00 |
| West Coast Eagles | -33.15 | -39.36 | 6.20 |
| Richmond Tigers | -39.09 | -29.44 | -9.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 121 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Bulldogs vs. Adelaide Crows | Jun 11 | 64 – 121 | 9.30 | FALSE |
| 2 | Geelong Cats vs. Gold Coast Suns | Jun 12 | 105 – 60 | 31.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers | Jun 13 | 95 – 50 | 30.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | North Melbourne vs. West Coast Eagles | Jun 13 | 74 – 73 | 4.30 | TRUE |
| 5 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans | Jun 13 | 90 – 93 | -20.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions | Jun 14 | 80 – 115 | -53.90 | TRUE |
| 7 | St Kilda Saints vs. GWS Giants | Jun 14 | 96 – 88 | 4.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 16
Here are the predictions for Week 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Geelong Cats | Jun 18 | Fremantle Dockers | 7.40 |
| 2 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Jun 19 | Hawthorn Hawks | -1.40 |
| 3 | Adelaide Crows vs. Melbourne Demons | Jun 20 | Adelaide Crows | 25.50 |
| 4 | GWS Giants vs. Carlton Blues | Jun 20 | GWS Giants | 19.70 |
| 5 | Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide Power | Jun 20 | Collingwood | 25.60 |
| 6 | Richmond Tigers vs. North Melbourne | Jun 21 | North Melbourne | -20.60 |
| 7 | St Kilda Saints vs. Western Bulldogs | Jun 21 | Western Bulldogs | -6.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »