NFL Predictions for Week 6
Team Ratings for Week 6
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 9.00 | 12.03 | -3.00 |
| Patriots | 8.86 | 8.11 | 0.70 |
| Bills | 6.39 | 4.81 | 1.60 |
| 49ers | 6.12 | 0.63 | 5.50 |
| Jaguars | 6.01 | 4.17 | 1.80 |
| Rams | 4.09 | 6.16 | -2.10 |
| Vikings | 3.81 | 2.79 | 1.00 |
| Broncos | 3.00 | 4.07 | -1.10 |
| Lions | 2.70 | 5.20 | -2.50 |
| Ravens | 2.18 | 2.53 | -0.30 |
| Texans | 2.18 | 5.51 | -3.30 |
| Chiefs | 1.77 | -1.34 | 3.10 |
| Bengals | 1.34 | 0.39 | 0.90 |
| Bears | 1.12 | 1.18 | -0.10 |
| Steelers | 0.39 | -0.43 | 0.80 |
| Packers | -0.03 | 1.72 | -1.70 |
| Eagles | -0.87 | 0.73 | -1.60 |
| Colts | -1.02 | -0.74 | -0.30 |
| Chargers | -1.46 | 1.16 | -2.60 |
| Falcons | -1.63 | -1.39 | -0.20 |
| Giants | -2.31 | -2.38 | 0.10 |
| Panthers | -2.57 | -4.66 | 2.10 |
| Cowboys | -2.86 | -3.42 | 0.60 |
| Buccaneers | -2.98 | -3.95 | 1.00 |
| Raiders | -3.16 | -5.72 | 2.60 |
| Browns | -3.63 | -2.50 | -1.10 |
| Saints | -4.63 | -3.38 | -1.30 |
| Commanders | -4.78 | -4.65 | -0.10 |
| Jets | -5.82 | -9.84 | 4.00 |
| Dolphins | -6.47 | -3.99 | -2.50 |
| Cardinals | -8.64 | -7.49 | -1.10 |
| Titans | -9.61 | -8.81 | -0.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 79 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cowboys vs. Buccaneers | Oct 09 | 16 – 24 | 3.30 | FALSE |
| 2 | Jaguars vs. Eagles | Oct 12 | 19 – 17 | 8.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Dolphins vs. Bengals | Oct 12 | 24 – 31 | -8.10 | TRUE |
| 4 | Patriots vs. Raiders | Oct 12 | 45 – 17 | 8.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Saints vs. Vikings | Oct 12 | 13 – 23 | -7.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Jets vs. Browns | Oct 12 | 17 – 12 | -5.00 | FALSE |
| 7 | Steelers vs. Colts | Oct 12 | 34 – 22 | -1.10 | FALSE |
| 8 | Titans vs. Texans | Oct 12 | 3 – 26 | -9.20 | TRUE |
| 9 | Commanders vs. Giants | Oct 12 | 27 – 27 | -3.40 | FALSE |
| 10 | Chargers vs. Broncos | Oct 12 | 17 – 23 | -3.90 | TRUE |
| 11 | Cardinals vs. Lions | Oct 12 | 21 – 45 | -8.50 | TRUE |
| 12 | Packers vs. Bears | Oct 12 | 31 – 7 | -6.20 | FALSE |
| 13 | Seahawks vs. 49ers | Oct 12 | 29 – 32 | 5.20 | FALSE |
| 14 | Falcons vs. Ravens | Oct 12 | 23 – 30 | -2.60 | TRUE |
| 15 | Rams vs. Bills | Oct 13 | 34 – 37 | -2.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 6
Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Seahawks | Oct 16 | Seahawks | -6.00 |
| 2 | Jaguars vs. Texans | Oct 19 | Jaguars | 3.80 |
| 3 | Falcons vs. Bears | Oct 19 | Bears | -2.70 |
| 4 | Browns vs. Ravens | Oct 19 | Ravens | -5.80 |
| 5 | Colts vs. Titans | Oct 19 | Colts | 8.60 |
| 6 | Patriots vs. Jets | Oct 19 | Patriots | 14.70 |
| 7 | Giants vs. Saints | Oct 19 | Giants | 2.30 |
| 8 | Eagles vs. Panthers | Oct 19 | Eagles | 1.70 |
| 9 | Buccaneers vs. Steelers | Oct 19 | Steelers | -3.40 |
| 10 | Rams vs. Cardinals | Oct 19 | Rams | 12.70 |
| 11 | Chiefs vs. Chargers | Oct 19 | Chiefs | 3.20 |
| 12 | Raiders vs. Bills | Oct 19 | Bills | -9.60 |
| 13 | Packers vs. Cowboys | Oct 19 | Packers | 2.80 |
| 14 | 49ers vs. Commanders | Oct 20 | 49ers | 10.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »