Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

September 8, 2020

Pro14 Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.53 12.20 4.30
Munster 11.18 10.73 0.50
Glasgow Warriors 6.87 9.66 -2.80
Ulster 4.12 1.89 2.20
Edinburgh 3.82 1.24 2.60
Scarlets 3.16 3.91 -0.70
Connacht 0.34 2.68 -2.30
Cardiff Blues -0.36 0.54 -0.90
Cheetahs -0.46 -3.38 2.90
Ospreys -3.38 2.80 -6.20
Treviso -4.11 -1.33 -2.80
Dragons -8.03 -9.31 1.30
Zebre -14.76 -16.93 2.20
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.70 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 103 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Leinster vs. Munster Sep 05 13 – 3 10.40 TRUE
2 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Sep 06 19 – 22 7.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leinster vs. Ulster Sep 13 Leinster 17.40

 

NRL Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.42 12.73 1.70
Roosters 12.14 12.25 -0.10
Panthers 6.47 -0.13 6.60
Raiders 5.81 7.06 -1.20
Rabbitohs 5.72 2.85 2.90
Eels 3.48 2.80 0.70
Sharks -0.23 1.81 -2.00
Knights -0.43 -5.92 5.50
Warriors -2.68 -5.17 2.50
Wests Tigers -2.95 -0.18 -2.80
Sea Eagles -3.40 1.05 -4.40
Dragons -4.28 -6.14 1.90
Bulldogs -6.86 -2.52 -4.30
Cowboys -7.01 -3.95 -3.10
Titans -10.39 -12.99 2.60
Broncos -11.80 -5.53 -6.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 92 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Panthers Sep 03 12 – 25 -16.80 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Sharks Sep 04 38 – 10 -0.70 FALSE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Sep 04 16 – 22 -6.90 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Titans Sep 05 14 – 18 6.70 FALSE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Sep 05 32 – 34 2.10 FALSE
6 Raiders vs. Roosters Sep 05 6 – 14 -3.70 TRUE
7 Eels vs. Warriors Sep 06 24 – 18 11.40 TRUE
8 Cowboys vs. Dragons Sep 06 23 – 22 -1.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Sep 10 Rabbitohs -6.70
2 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Sep 11 Sea Eagles -1.50
3 Panthers vs. Eels Sep 11 Panthers 5.00
4 Dragons vs. Raiders Sep 12 Raiders -8.10
5 Titans vs. Broncos Sep 12 Titans 3.40
6 Roosters vs. Knights Sep 12 Roosters 14.60
7 Storm vs. Cowboys Sep 13 Storm 21.40
8 Sharks vs. Warriors Sep 13 Sharks 6.90

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 15.13 15.13 0.00
Canterbury 8.40 8.40 -0.00
Bay of Plenty 8.21 8.21 0.00
Auckland 6.75 6.75 -0.00
Wellington 6.47 6.47 0.00
North Harbour 2.87 2.87 -0.00
Waikato 1.31 1.31 -0.00
Hawke’s Bay 0.91 0.91 0.00
Otago -4.03 -4.03 -0.00
Taranaki -4.42 -4.42 -0.00
Counties Manukau -8.18 -8.18 -0.00
Northland -8.71 -8.71 0.00
Manawatu -10.57 -10.57 0.00
Southland -14.04 -14.04 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 11 Canterbury -2.50
2 Waikato vs. Wellington Sep 12 Wellington -2.20
3 Otago vs. Auckland Sep 12 Auckland -7.80
4 Counties Manukau vs. Tasman Sep 12 Tasman -20.30
5 Northland vs. Manawatu Sep 13 Northland 4.90
6 Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 13 Bay of Plenty -9.60
7 Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 13 Hawke’s Bay -11.90

 

September 1, 2020

Super Rugby Australia Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

As an indication of the care needed at present in determining home ground advantage, the comprehensive scores site flashscore.com.au still has the Rebels v Waratahs game as being played in Melbourne. (Click on the match result to see the scorers and times and match details at the bottom.) Fortunately I checked beforehand that it was to be played in Sydney so I gave the Waratahs home ground advantage and predicted them to win. Otherwise I would have predicted the Rebels, even if played on a neutral ground.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brumbies 2.90 4.67 -1.80
Reds 0.41 -0.31 0.70
Rebels -3.26 -5.52 2.30
Waratahs -4.64 -7.12 2.50
Force -13.69 -10.00 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brumbies vs. Force Aug 28 31 – 14 22.00 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Rebels Aug 29 38 – 32 2.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rebels vs. Force Sep 04 Rebels 10.40
2 Reds vs. Brumbies Sep 05 Reds 2.00

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 11.90 7.99 3.90
Saracens 8.31 9.34 -1.00
Sale Sharks 6.97 0.17 6.80
Wasps 2.25 0.31 1.90
Bath 0.62 1.10 -0.50
Gloucester 0.27 0.58 -0.30
Bristol -0.21 -2.77 2.60
Northampton Saints -1.79 0.25 -2.00
Harlequins -1.83 -0.81 -1.00
Leicester Tigers -4.85 -1.76 -3.10
Worcester Warriors -7.31 -2.69 -4.60
London Irish -8.13 -5.51 -2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 102 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Aug 30 40 – 7 9.30 TRUE
2 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Aug 30 30 – 17 3.40 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Worcester Warriors Aug 31 59 – 7 20.70 TRUE
4 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Aug 31 46 – 30 8.80 TRUE
5 London Irish vs. Saracens Aug 31 12 – 40 -10.10 TRUE
6 Bath vs. Wasps Sep 01 23 – 27 3.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Worcester Warriors vs. Bristol Sep 05 Bristol -2.60
2 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Sep 05 Exeter Chiefs -9.20
3 Saracens vs. Wasps Sep 05 Saracens 10.60
4 Harlequins vs. Bath Sep 05 Harlequins 2.10
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Sep 06 Sale Sharks -7.30
6 Gloucester vs. London Irish Sep 06 Gloucester 12.90

 

Pro14 Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.57 12.20 4.40
Munster 11.14 10.73 0.40
Glasgow Warriors 6.87 9.66 -2.80
Edinburgh 4.28 1.24 3.00
Ulster 3.66 1.89 1.80
Scarlets 3.16 3.91 -0.70
Connacht 0.34 2.68 -2.30
Cardiff Blues -0.36 0.54 -0.90
Cheetahs -0.46 -3.38 2.90
Ospreys -3.38 2.80 -6.20
Treviso -4.11 -1.33 -2.80
Dragons -8.03 -9.31 1.30
Zebre -14.76 -16.93 2.20
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.70 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 101 matches played, 78 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Edinburgh Aug 29 15 – 3 6.60 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Scarlets Aug 30 20 – 41 -4.90 TRUE
3 Ulster vs. Leinster Aug 30 10 – 28 -6.90 TRUE
4 Munster vs. Connacht Aug 31 49 – 12 14.20 TRUE
5 Cardiff Blues vs. Ospreys Aug 31 29 – 20 7.80 TRUE
6 Zebre vs. Treviso Aug 31 9 – 16 -5.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leinster vs. Munster Sep 05 Leinster 10.40
2 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Sep 06 Edinburgh 7.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.51 12.73 1.80
Roosters 11.84 12.25 -0.40
Panthers 6.74 -0.13 6.90
Raiders 6.11 7.06 -0.90
Rabbitohs 5.64 2.85 2.80
Eels 3.83 2.80 1.00
Sharks 1.01 1.81 -0.80
Knights -1.67 -5.92 4.30
Warriors -3.03 -5.17 2.10
Sea Eagles -3.11 1.05 -4.20
Wests Tigers -3.24 -0.18 -3.10
Dragons -4.11 -6.14 2.00
Bulldogs -6.27 -2.52 -3.80
Cowboys -7.18 -3.95 -3.20
Titans -10.99 -12.99 2.00
Broncos -12.07 -5.53 -6.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Aug 27 0 – 38 3.50 FALSE
2 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 28 10 – 14 10.40 FALSE
3 Roosters vs. Broncos Aug 28 58 – 12 23.90 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Warriors Aug 29 6 – 36 9.00 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Cowboys Aug 29 28 – 12 9.40 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Aug 29 30 – 6 10.60 TRUE
7 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Aug 30 30 – 6 16.70 TRUE
8 Raiders vs. Bulldogs Aug 30 34 – 20 14.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Panthers Sep 03 Panthers -16.80
2 Knights vs. Sharks Sep 04 Sharks -0.70
3 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Sep 04 Storm -6.90
4 Bulldogs vs. Titans Sep 05 Bulldogs 6.70
5 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Sep 05 Sea Eagles 2.10
6 Raiders vs. Roosters Sep 05 Roosters -3.70
7 Eels vs. Warriors Sep 06 Eels 11.40
8 Cowboys vs. Dragons Sep 06 Dragons -1.10

 

August 30, 2020

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 17

By

Team Ratings for Round 17

I got caught out a bit this round with games being played earlier in the week and then again on the weekend. As usual my predictions are what they would have been before the games were played, the predictions are produced by running my algorithm over the past data and information about home grounds.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 10.41 7.99 2.40
Saracens 7.39 9.34 -1.90
Sale Sharks 5.79 0.17 5.60
Wasps 1.79 0.31 1.50
Bath 1.08 1.10 -0.00
Bristol 0.96 -2.77 3.70
Gloucester -0.16 0.58 -0.70
Northampton Saints -1.24 0.25 -1.50
Harlequins -2.38 -0.81 -1.60
Leicester Tigers -4.42 -1.76 -2.70
Worcester Warriors -5.81 -2.69 -3.10
London Irish -7.20 -5.51 -1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 96 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wasps vs. Sale Sharks Aug 26 11 – 20 1.70 FALSE
2 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Aug 26 22 – 25 -5.30 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. London Irish Aug 27 13 – 7 7.50 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Gloucester Aug 27 36 – 20 11.50 TRUE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Harlequins Aug 27 29 – 14 -0.60 FALSE
6 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Aug 27 3 – 18 4.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Aug 30 Sale Sharks 9.30
2 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Aug 30 Harlequins 3.40
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Worcester Warriors Aug 31 Exeter Chiefs 20.70
4 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Aug 31 Gloucester 8.80
5 London Irish vs. Saracens Aug 31 Saracens -10.10
6 Bath vs. Wasps Sep 01 Bath 3.80

 

August 25, 2020

Super Rugby Australia Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brumbies 3.34 4.67 -1.30
Reds 0.41 -0.31 0.70
Rebels -2.94 -5.52 2.60
Waratahs -4.96 -7.12 2.20
Force -14.14 -10.00 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Reds vs. Force Aug 21 57 – 5 14.30 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Aug 22 38 – 11 10.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brumbies vs. Force Aug 28 Brumbies 22.00
2 Waratahs vs. Rebels Aug 29 Waratahs 2.50

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 10.59 7.99 2.60
Saracens 7.10 9.34 -2.20
Sale Sharks 5.19 0.17 5.00
Wasps 2.39 0.31 2.10
Bristol 0.78 -2.77 3.60
Gloucester 0.13 0.58 -0.50
Bath 0.09 1.10 -1.00
Northampton Saints -0.26 0.25 -0.50
Harlequins -1.55 -0.81 -0.70
Leicester Tigers -4.29 -1.76 -2.50
Worcester Warriors -6.64 -2.69 -4.00
London Irish -7.32 -5.51 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Aug 22 22 – 32 0.30 FALSE
2 Gloucester vs. Bristol Aug 22 24 – 33 5.40 FALSE
3 Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors Aug 22 32 – 17 13.20 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Harlequins Aug 22 38 – 24 13.00 TRUE
5 London Irish vs. Northampton Saints Aug 22 3 – 27 -0.20 TRUE
6 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Aug 23 16 – 38 2.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wasps vs. Sale Sharks Aug 26 Wasps 1.70
2 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Aug 26 Exeter Chiefs -5.30
3 Leicester Tigers vs. London Irish Aug 27 Leicester Tigers 7.50
4 Saracens vs. Gloucester Aug 27 Saracens 11.50
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Harlequins Aug 27 Harlequins -0.60
6 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Aug 27 Northampton Saints 4.20

 

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