Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

August 27, 2019

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 16.61 9.00 7.60
Auckland 11.67 11.57 0.10
Canterbury 10.77 12.92 -2.10
Wellington 7.12 10.92 -3.80
Waikato 5.97 8.24 -2.30
North Harbour 3.72 5.30 -1.60
Bay of Plenty 2.60 -4.82 7.40
Counties Manukau -0.87 -1.99 1.10
Taranaki -2.04 -5.22 3.20
Hawke’s Bay -3.34 -5.69 2.30
Otago -5.63 -1.49 -4.10
Northland -10.45 -6.23 -4.20
Manawatu -15.65 -11.67 -4.00
Southland -21.72 -22.08 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Aug 22 29 – 21 5.90 TRUE
2 Wellington vs. Canterbury Aug 23 23 – 22 0.20 TRUE
3 Auckland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 24 19 – 13 14.60 TRUE
4 Tasman vs. Manawatu Aug 24 64 – 3 30.80 TRUE
5 Counties Manukau vs. Waikato Aug 24 26 – 31 -2.40 TRUE
6 Taranaki vs. Northland Aug 25 52 – 19 7.90 TRUE
7 Southland vs. North Harbour Aug 25 12 – 33 -21.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wellington vs. Counties Manukau Aug 29 Wellington 12.00
2 Otago vs. Manawatu Aug 30 Otago 14.00
3 Canterbury vs. Southland Aug 31 Canterbury 36.50
4 Northland vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 31 Hawke’s Bay -3.10
5 Waikato vs. Auckland Aug 31 Auckland -1.70
6 North Harbour vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 01 North Harbour 5.10
7 Taranaki vs. Tasman Sep 01 Tasman -14.60

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for the SemiFinals

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Team Ratings for the SemiFinals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers to the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team. Possibly there will be no such clashes this year

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 6.90 7.88 -1.00
Sharks 5.38 5.56 -0.20
Cheetahs 4.02 2.68 1.30
Lions 2.44 3.35 -0.90
Blue Bulls -1.13 0.30 -1.40
Pumas -8.02 -7.53 -0.50
Griquas -8.07 -10.73 2.70
Cheetahs2 -14.26 -14.26 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Lions Aug 25 26 – 27 -7.00 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Aug 25 38 – 33 1.00 TRUE
3 Blue Bulls vs. Sharks Aug 25 40 – 48 -0.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the SemiFinals

Here are the predictions for the SemiFinals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Griquas Sep 01 Lions 15.00
2 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Sep 01 Cheetahs 3.10

 

August 20, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 23

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Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 12.41 6.03 6.40
Roosters 11.40 8.72 2.70
Raiders 8.96 1.81 7.20
Sea Eagles 2.37 -5.61 8.00
Rabbitohs 1.00 3.89 -2.90
Eels 0.41 -6.17 6.60
Sharks -0.26 3.90 -4.20
Broncos -0.35 2.63 -3.00
Knights -1.96 -8.51 6.50
Panthers -2.09 0.93 -3.00
Wests Tigers -3.52 -5.57 2.00
Dragons -3.90 0.06 -4.00
Bulldogs -4.15 -0.61 -3.50
Warriors -4.24 -0.27 -4.00
Cowboys -6.38 0.15 -6.50
Titans -11.69 -3.36 -8.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 106 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Aug 15 32 – 12 7.10 TRUE
2 Titans vs. Eels Aug 16 12 – 36 -6.70 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Panthers Aug 16 24 – 12 3.50 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Cowboys Aug 17 42 – 6 2.80 TRUE
5 Storm vs. Raiders Aug 17 18 – 22 8.20 FALSE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Aug 17 6 – 14 10.80 FALSE
7 Roosters vs. Warriors Aug 18 42 – 6 17.60 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Dragons Aug 18 18 – 12 6.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Bulldogs Aug 22 Eels 7.60
2 Cowboys vs. Panthers Aug 23 Panthers -1.30
3 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Aug 23 Broncos 1.70
4 Sharks vs. Warriors Aug 24 Sharks 8.50
5 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Aug 24 Wests Tigers 1.40
6 Dragons vs. Roosters Aug 24 Roosters -12.30
7 Storm vs. Titans Aug 25 Storm 27.10
8 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Aug 25 Raiders 9.60

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 3

By

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 13.89 9.00 4.90
Auckland 12.44 11.57 0.90
Canterbury 10.84 12.92 -2.10
Wellington 7.05 10.92 -3.90
Waikato 5.73 8.24 -2.50
North Harbour 3.77 5.30 -1.50
Bay of Plenty 1.83 -4.82 6.70
Counties Manukau -0.63 -1.99 1.40
Hawke’s Bay -3.52 -5.69 2.20
Taranaki -4.30 -5.22 0.90
Otago -5.44 -1.49 -4.00
Northland -8.19 -6.23 -2.00
Manawatu -12.93 -11.67 -1.30
Southland -21.77 -22.08 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northland vs. Auckland Aug 15 10 – 43 -13.00 TRUE
2 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Aug 16 25 – 39 13.30 FALSE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington Aug 16 27 – 27 -8.00 FALSE
4 Manawatu vs. Taranaki Aug 17 10 – 13 -5.00 TRUE
5 Otago vs. Southland Aug 17 41 – 22 20.60 TRUE
6 Canterbury vs. Tasman Aug 18 8 – 23 4.40 FALSE
7 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Aug 18 40 – 14 -5.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Aug 22 Hawke’s Bay 5.90
2 Wellington vs. Canterbury Aug 23 Wellington 0.20
3 Auckland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 24 Auckland 14.60
4 Tasman vs. Manawatu Aug 24 Tasman 30.80
5 Counties Manukau vs. Waikato Aug 24 Waikato -2.40
6 Taranaki vs. Northland Aug 25 Taranaki 7.90
7 Southland vs. North Harbour Aug 25 North Harbour -21.50

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers to the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team. Possibly there will be no such clashes this year

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 7.22 7.88 -0.70
Sharks 4.81 5.56 -0.80
Cheetahs 3.70 2.68 1.00
Lions 2.92 3.35 -0.40
Blue Bulls -0.56 0.30 -0.90
Pumas -8.02 -7.53 -0.50
Griquas -8.55 -10.73 2.20
Cheetahs2 -14.26 -14.26 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Western Province Aug 17 27 – 23 -12.40 FALSE
2 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Aug 18 37 – 46 -6.90 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Sharks Aug 19 28 – 30 3.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Lions Aug 25 Lions -7.00
2 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Aug 25 Cheetahs 1.00
3 Blue Bulls vs. Sharks Aug 25 Sharks -0.90

 

August 13, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 22

By

Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.26 6.03 7.20
Roosters 10.11 8.72 1.40
Raiders 8.11 1.81 6.30
Rabbitohs 2.31 3.89 -1.60
Sea Eagles 1.47 -5.61 7.10
Sharks -0.21 3.90 -4.10
Eels -0.81 -6.17 5.40
Broncos -0.94 2.63 -3.60
Panthers -1.49 0.93 -2.40
Wests Tigers -2.61 -5.57 3.00
Warriors -2.95 -0.27 -2.70
Dragons -3.95 0.06 -4.00
Cowboys -4.05 0.15 -4.20
Knights -4.28 -8.51 4.20
Bulldogs -5.47 -0.61 -4.90
Titans -10.47 -3.36 -7.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 160 matches played, 100 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 08 14 – 18 0.50 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Aug 09 24 – 16 -1.20 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Sharks Aug 09 26 – 20 1.00 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 10 40 – 28 9.10 TRUE
5 Eels vs. Knights Aug 10 20 – 14 6.60 TRUE
6 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Aug 10 18 – 16 -0.20 FALSE
7 Raiders vs. Roosters Aug 11 18 – 22 1.80 FALSE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Aug 11 16 – 26 -7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Aug 15 Sea Eagles 7.10
2 Titans vs. Eels Aug 16 Eels -6.70
3 Broncos vs. Panthers Aug 16 Broncos 3.50
4 Knights vs. Cowboys Aug 17 Knights 2.80
5 Storm vs. Raiders Aug 17 Storm 8.20
6 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Aug 17 Rabbitohs 10.80
7 Roosters vs. Warriors Aug 18 Roosters 17.60
8 Sharks vs. Dragons Aug 18 Sharks 6.70

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 2

By

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 12.59 12.92 -0.30
Tasman 12.14 9.00 3.10
Auckland 10.64 11.57 -0.90
Waikato 8.57 8.24 0.30
Wellington 7.78 10.92 -3.10
North Harbour 6.23 5.30 0.90
Bay of Plenty -1.01 -4.82 3.80
Counties Manukau -3.09 -1.99 -1.10
Taranaki -4.12 -5.22 1.10
Hawke’s Bay -4.25 -5.69 1.40
Otago -5.30 -1.49 -3.80
Northland -6.40 -6.23 -0.20
Manawatu -13.11 -11.67 -1.40
Southland -21.92 -22.08 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southland vs. Northland Aug 08 17 – 27 -11.90 TRUE
2 Auckland vs. North Harbour Aug 09 28 – 28 10.30 FALSE
3 Tasman vs. Wellington Aug 10 45 – 8 2.10 TRUE
4 Counties Manukau vs. Taranaki Aug 10 29 – 34 7.20 FALSE
5 Waikato vs. Canterbury Aug 10 31 – 28 -0.70 FALSE
6 Bay of Plenty vs. Otago Aug 11 50 – 7 0.70 TRUE
7 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 11 13 – 31 -2.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northland vs. Auckland Aug 15 Auckland -13.00
2 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Aug 16 North Harbour 13.30
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington Aug 16 Wellington -8.00
4 Manawatu vs. Taranaki Aug 17 Taranaki -5.00
5 Otago vs. Southland Aug 17 Otago 20.60
6 Canterbury vs. Tasman Aug 18 Canterbury 4.40
7 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Aug 18 Waikato -5.60

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 6

By

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers to the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team. Possibly there will be no such clashes this year

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 7.79 7.88 -0.10
Sharks 4.37 5.56 -1.20
Cheetahs 3.53 2.68 0.90
Lions 3.36 3.35 0.00
Blue Bulls -0.56 0.30 -0.90
Pumas -7.85 -7.53 -0.30
Griquas -9.11 -10.73 1.60
Cheetahs2 -14.26 -14.26 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 53.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Province vs. Pumas Aug 10 45 – 14 19.20 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Aug 11 27 – 20 5.00 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Blue Bulls Aug 11 26 – 31 9.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Western Province Aug 17 Western Province -12.40
2 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Aug 18 Cheetahs -6.90
3 Lions vs. Sharks Aug 19 Lions 3.50

 

August 6, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 21

By

Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.10 6.03 7.10
Roosters 9.70 8.72 1.00
Raiders 8.51 1.81 6.70
Rabbitohs 2.48 3.89 -1.40
Sea Eagles 2.11 -5.61 7.70
Sharks 0.14 3.90 -3.80
Eels -0.77 -6.17 5.40
Broncos -1.26 2.63 -3.90
Panthers -1.84 0.93 -2.80
Wests Tigers -2.46 -5.57 3.10
Warriors -3.59 -0.27 -3.30
Cowboys -3.74 0.15 -3.90
Dragons -4.15 0.06 -4.20
Knights -4.32 -8.51 4.20
Bulldogs -5.62 -0.61 -5.00
Titans -10.27 -3.36 -6.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 152 matches played, 96 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Aug 01 28 – 4 1.10 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Raiders Aug 02 12 – 46 -3.30 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Storm Aug 02 4 – 40 -7.30 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Aug 03 30 – 6 7.10 TRUE
5 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Aug 03 16 – 8 -2.20 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Aug 03 39 – 24 -1.70 FALSE
7 Roosters vs. Titans Aug 04 58 – 6 18.20 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Eels Aug 04 4 – 12 0.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 08 Cowboys 0.50
2 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Aug 09 Sea Eagles -1.20
3 Panthers vs. Sharks Aug 09 Panthers 1.00
4 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 10 Dragons 9.10
5 Eels vs. Knights Aug 10 Eels 6.60
6 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Aug 10 Wests Tigers -0.20
7 Raiders vs. Roosters Aug 11 Raiders 1.80
8 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Aug 11 Storm -7.60

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 1

By

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 12.92 12.92 0.00
Auckland 11.57 11.57 0.00
Wellington 10.92 10.92 0.00
Tasman 9.00 9.00 0.00
Waikato 8.24 8.24 -0.00
North Harbour 5.30 5.30 -0.00
Otago -1.49 -1.49 -0.00
Counties Manukau -1.99 -1.99 0.00
Bay of Plenty -4.82 -4.82 0.00
Taranaki -5.22 -5.22 -0.00
Hawke’s Bay -5.69 -5.69 -0.00
Northland -6.23 -6.23 0.00
Manawatu -11.67 -11.67 -0.00
Southland -22.08 -22.08 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Southland vs. Northland Aug 08 Northland -11.90
2 Auckland vs. North Harbour Aug 09 Auckland 10.30
3 Tasman vs. Wellington Aug 10 Tasman 2.10
4 Counties Manukau vs. Taranaki Aug 10 Counties Manukau 7.20
5 Waikato vs. Canterbury Aug 10 Canterbury -0.70
6 Bay of Plenty vs. Otago Aug 11 Bay of Plenty 0.70
7 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 11 Hawke’s Bay -2.00

 

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