Rugby World Cup Predictions 2
I was hoping to be able to release predictions in batches of 8 matches, but some matches which could be predicted already would then not have a prediction. Instead I have decided to predict all future games, and update as required to ensure that before a team plays, my predictions will take into account all previous games.
Observe below that means for example that I will provide updated predictions before the Georgia vs. Uruguay game to take into account the game played by Uruguay against Fiji.
Team Ratings 2
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 27.68 | 27.60 | 0.10 |
| England | 19.04 | 19.78 | -0.70 |
| South Africa | 18.42 | 18.51 | -0.10 |
| Ireland | 13.68 | 12.12 | 1.60 |
| Wales | 12.62 | 12.72 | -0.10 |
| Australia | 9.06 | 8.70 | 0.40 |
| France | 7.02 | 7.11 | -0.10 |
| Argentina | 4.23 | 4.15 | 0.10 |
| Scotland | 3.88 | 5.44 | -1.60 |
| Fiji | -5.64 | -5.27 | -0.40 |
| Japan | -9.08 | -7.67 | -1.40 |
| Italy | -9.31 | -8.57 | -0.70 |
| Samoa | -11.89 | -11.89 | -0.00 |
| USA | -16.38 | -16.38 | -0.00 |
| Georgia | -17.32 | -17.43 | 0.10 |
| Tonga | -19.72 | -20.46 | 0.70 |
| Canada | -32.45 | -32.45 | 0.00 |
| Russia | -35.38 | -36.78 | 1.40 |
| Uruguay | -35.67 | -35.67 | -0.00 |
| Namibia | -41.06 | -41.80 | 0.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 8 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 100%.
Here are the predictions for the previous games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Japan vs. Russia | Sep 20 | 30 – 10 | 35.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Australia vs. Fiji | Sep 21 | 39 – 21 | 14.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | France vs. Argentina | Sep 21 | 23 – 21 | 3.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | New Zealand vs. South Africa | Sep 21 | 23 – 13 | 9.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Italy vs. Namibia | Sep 22 | 47 – 22 | 33.20 | TRUE |
| 6 | Ireland vs. Scotland | Sep 22 | 27 – 3 | 6.70 | TRUE |
| 7 | England vs. Tonga | Sep 22 | 35 – 3 | 40.20 | TRUE |
| 8 | Wales vs. Georgia | Sep 23 | 43 – 14 | 30.10 | TRUE |
Predictions 2
Here are the updated predictions. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Russia vs. Samoa | Sep 24 | Samoa | -23.50 |
| 2 | Fiji vs. Uruguay | Sep 25 | Fiji | 30.00 |
| 3 | Italy vs. Canada | Sep 26 | Italy | 23.10 |
| 4 | England vs. USA | Sep 26 | England | 35.40 |
| 5 | Argentina vs. Tonga | Sep 28 | Argentina | 24.00 |
| 6 | Japan vs. Ireland | Sep 28 | Ireland | -16.30 |
| 7 | South Africa vs. Namibia | Sep 28 | South Africa | 59.50 |
| 8 | Georgia vs. Uruguay | Sep 29 | Georgia | 18.30 |
| 9 | Australia vs. Wales | Sep 29 | Wales | -3.60 |
| 10 | Scotland vs. Samoa | Sep 30 | Scotland | 15.80 |
| 11 | France vs. USA | Oct 02 | France | 23.40 |
| 12 | New Zealand vs. Canada | Oct 02 | New Zealand | 60.10 |
| 13 | Georgia vs. Fiji | Oct 03 | Fiji | -11.70 |
| 14 | Ireland vs. Russia | Oct 03 | Ireland | 49.10 |
| 15 | South Africa vs. Italy | Oct 04 | South Africa | 27.70 |
| 16 | Australia vs. Uruguay | Oct 05 | Australia | 44.70 |
| 17 | England vs. Argentina | Oct 05 | England | 14.80 |
| 18 | Japan vs. Samoa | Oct 05 | Japan | 9.30 |
| 19 | New Zealand vs. Namibia | Oct 06 | New Zealand | 68.70 |
| 20 | France vs. Tonga | Oct 06 | France | 26.70 |
| 21 | South Africa vs. Canada | Oct 08 | South Africa | 50.90 |
| 22 | Argentina vs. USA | Oct 09 | Argentina | 20.60 |
| 23 | Scotland vs. Russia | Oct 09 | Scotland | 39.30 |
| 24 | Wales vs. Fiji | Oct 09 | Wales | 18.30 |
| 25 | Australia vs. Georgia | Oct 11 | Australia | 26.40 |
| 26 | New Zealand vs. Italy | Oct 12 | New Zealand | 37.00 |
| 27 | England vs. France | Oct 12 | England | 12.00 |
| 28 | Ireland vs. Samoa | Oct 12 | Ireland | 25.60 |
| 29 | Namibia vs. Canada | Oct 13 | Canada | -8.60 |
| 30 | USA vs. Tonga | Oct 13 | USA | 3.30 |
| 31 | Wales vs. Uruguay | Oct 13 | Wales | 48.30 |
| 32 | Japan vs. Scotland | Oct 13 | Scotland | -6.50 |
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