Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

August 6, 2019

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers to the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team. Possibly there will be no such clashes this year

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 7.34 7.88 -0.50
Sharks 4.21 5.56 -1.40
Lions 3.88 3.35 0.50
Cheetahs 3.69 2.68 1.00
Blue Bulls -1.08 0.30 -1.40
Pumas -7.41 -7.53 0.10
Griquas -9.11 -10.73 1.60
Cheetahs2 -14.26 -14.26 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Lions Aug 03 22 – 24 5.50 FALSE
2 Pumas vs. Sharks Aug 04 27 – 20 -8.20 FALSE
3 Blue Bulls vs. Griquas Aug 04 15 – 37 14.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Pumas Aug 10 Western Province 19.20
2 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Aug 11 Sharks 5.00
3 Lions vs. Blue Bulls Aug 11 Lions 9.50

 

July 30, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.09 6.03 5.10
Roosters 7.34 8.72 -1.40
Raiders 6.36 1.81 4.60
Rabbitohs 3.64 3.89 -0.20
Sea Eagles 0.92 -5.61 6.50
Broncos 0.74 2.63 -1.90
Sharks -1.03 3.90 -4.90
Panthers -1.13 0.93 -2.10
Eels -1.39 -6.17 4.80
Warriors -1.44 -0.27 -1.20
Cowboys -2.13 0.15 -2.30
Knights -3.14 -8.51 5.40
Dragons -3.53 0.06 -3.60
Wests Tigers -4.07 -5.57 1.50
Bulldogs -6.33 -0.61 -5.70
Titans -7.91 -3.36 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 91 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Cowboys Jul 25 16 – 14 4.40 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Jul 26 26 – 28 4.90 FALSE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Jul 26 20 – 16 11.20 TRUE
4 Eels vs. Warriors Jul 27 24 – 22 5.00 TRUE
5 Titans vs. Broncos Jul 27 12 – 34 -3.00 TRUE
6 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Jul 27 10 – 11 15.50 FALSE
7 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Jul 28 12 – 20 -11.10 TRUE
8 Panthers vs. Raiders Jul 28 18 – 30 -3.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Aug 01 Wests Tigers 1.10
2 Warriors vs. Raiders Aug 02 Raiders -3.30
3 Broncos vs. Storm Aug 02 Storm -7.30
4 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Aug 03 Sea Eagles 7.10
5 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Aug 03 Panthers -2.20
6 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Aug 03 Rabbitohs -1.70
7 Roosters vs. Titans Aug 04 Roosters 18.20
8 Dragons vs. Eels Aug 04 Dragons 0.90

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers to the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team. Possibly there will be no such clashes this year

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 7.34 7.88 -0.50
Sharks 4.75 5.56 -0.80
Cheetahs 4.29 2.68 1.60
Lions 3.27 3.35 -0.10
Blue Bulls -0.09 0.30 -0.40
Pumas -7.94 -7.53 -0.40
Griquas -10.11 -10.73 0.60
Cheetahs2 -14.26 -14.26 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 9 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Blue Bulls Jul 27 17 – 25 -2.50 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Jul 28 68 – 14 16.90 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Lions Jul 28 28 – 30 9.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Lions Aug 03 Cheetahs 5.50
2 Pumas vs. Sharks Aug 04 Sharks -8.20
3 Blue Bulls vs. Griquas Aug 04 Blue Bulls 14.50

 

July 23, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 12.25 6.03 6.20
Roosters 7.56 8.72 -1.20
Raiders 5.75 1.81 3.90
Rabbitohs 4.15 3.89 0.30
Sea Eagles -0.23 -5.61 5.40
Panthers -0.52 0.93 -1.40
Broncos -0.59 2.63 -3.20
Sharks -0.86 3.90 -4.80
Eels -1.18 -6.17 5.00
Warriors -1.65 -0.27 -1.40
Cowboys -2.30 0.15 -2.50
Knights -2.66 -8.51 5.80
Dragons -4.03 0.06 -4.10
Wests Tigers -4.55 -5.57 1.00
Bulldogs -6.55 -0.61 -5.90
Titans -6.58 -3.36 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Jul 18 28 – 6 6.80 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Sharks Jul 19 19 – 18 4.10 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Dragons Jul 19 40 – 18 4.00 TRUE
4 Roosters vs. Knights Jul 20 48 – 10 9.20 TRUE
5 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Jul 20 20 – 12 14.20 TRUE
6 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs Jul 20 18 – 30 -2.10 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Storm Jul 21 18 – 38 -15.10 TRUE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Jul 21 36 – 24 2.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Cowboys Jul 25 Sharks 4.40
2 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Jul 26 Knights 4.90
3 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Jul 26 Rabbitohs 11.20
4 Eels vs. Warriors Jul 27 Eels 5.00
5 Titans vs. Broncos Jul 27 Broncos -3.00
6 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Jul 27 Storm 15.50
7 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Jul 28 Roosters -11.10
8 Panthers vs. Raiders Jul 28 Raiders -3.30

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers to the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team. Possibly there will be no such clashes this year

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 7.78 7.88 -0.10
Sharks 4.75 5.56 -0.80
Cheetahs 3.28 2.68 0.60
Lions 2.83 3.35 -0.50
Blue Bulls -0.53 0.30 -0.80
Pumas -7.50 -7.53 0.00
Griquas -9.10 -10.73 1.60
Cavaliers -11.86 -11.86 -0.00
Cheetahs2 -14.26 -14.26 -0.00
Kings -16.84 -16.84 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Pumas Jul 20 37 – 29 1.90 TRUE
2 Blue Bulls vs. Cheetahs Jul 20 27 – 43 1.90 FALSE
3 Sharks vs. Western Province Jul 21 32 – 27 0.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Blue Bulls Jul 27 Blue Bulls -2.50
2 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Jul 28 Cheetahs 16.90
3 Western Province vs. Lions Jul 28 Western Province 9.40

 

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July 16, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.91 6.03 5.90
Raiders 6.18 1.81 4.40
Roosters 5.54 8.72 -3.20
Rabbitohs 3.45 3.89 -0.40
Eels -0.53 -6.17 5.60
Knights -0.64 -8.51 7.90
Sea Eagles -0.88 -5.61 4.70
Sharks -1.08 3.90 -5.00
Warriors -1.43 -0.27 -1.20
Cowboys -1.61 0.15 -1.80
Broncos -1.65 2.63 -4.30
Panthers -1.78 0.93 -2.70
Dragons -2.77 0.06 -2.80
Wests Tigers -4.98 -5.57 0.60
Bulldogs -5.49 -0.61 -4.90
Titans -6.24 -3.36 -2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 77 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Titans Jul 12 24 – 2 5.10 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Bulldogs Jul 12 14 – 20 10.10 FALSE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Jul 13 21 – 20 8.40 TRUE
4 Broncos vs. Warriors Jul 13 18 – 18 5.00 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Sharks Jul 13 40 – 16 14.70 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Cowboys Jul 14 12 – 15 12.30 FALSE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Jul 14 18 – 30 0.30 FALSE
8 Dragons vs. Raiders Jul 14 14 – 36 -3.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Jul 18 Broncos 6.80
2 Warriors vs. Sharks Jul 19 Warriors 4.10
3 Panthers vs. Dragons Jul 19 Panthers 4.00
4 Roosters vs. Knights Jul 20 Roosters 9.20
5 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Jul 20 Raiders 14.20
6 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs Jul 20 Rabbitohs -2.10
7 Titans vs. Storm Jul 21 Storm -15.10
8 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Jul 21 Sea Eagles 2.60

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 2

By

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers to the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team. Possibly there will be no such clashes this year.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 8.11 7.88 0.20
Sharks 4.42 5.56 -1.10
Lions 2.83 3.35 -0.50
Cheetahs 2.68 2.68 0.00
Blue Bulls 0.07 0.30 -0.20
Pumas -7.01 -7.53 0.50
Griquas -9.59 -10.73 1.10
Cavaliers -11.86 -11.86 -0.00
Cheetahs2 -14.26 -14.26 -0.00
Kings -16.84 -16.84 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 3 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Griquas Jul 13 13 – 37 20.80 FALSE
2 Lions vs. Pumas Jul 14 38 – 37 15.40 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Blue Bulls Jul 14 20 – 5 12.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Pumas Jul 20 Griquas 1.90
2 Blue Bulls vs. Cheetahs Jul 20 Blue Bulls 1.90
3 Sharks vs. Western Province Jul 21 Sharks 0.80

 

July 11, 2019

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers to the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team. Possibly there will be no such clashes this year.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 7.88 7.88 -0.00
Sharks 5.56 5.56 -0.00
Lions 3.35 3.35 -0.00
Cheetahs 2.68 2.68 0.00
Blue Bulls 0.30 0.30 -0.00
Pumas -7.53 -7.53 0.00
Griquas -10.73 -10.73 0.00
Cheetahs2 -14.26 -14.26 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Griquas Jul 13 Sharks 20.80
2 Lions vs. Pumas Jul 14 Lions 15.40
3 Western Province vs. Blue Bulls Jul 14 Western Province 12.10

 

July 9, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 17

By

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.25 6.03 5.20
Roosters 6.61 8.72 -2.10
Raiders 4.88 1.81 3.10
Rabbitohs 3.97 3.89 0.10
Knights 0.49 -8.51 9.00
Sharks -0.43 3.90 -4.30
Broncos -1.30 2.63 -3.90
Eels -1.38 -6.17 4.80
Sea Eagles -1.40 -5.61 4.20
Dragons -1.46 0.06 -1.50
Warriors -1.78 -0.27 -1.50
Cowboys -2.68 0.15 -2.80
Panthers -2.96 0.93 -3.90
Wests Tigers -4.12 -5.57 1.40
Titans -5.06 -3.36 -1.70
Bulldogs -6.62 -0.61 -6.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 73 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Storm Jul 04 14 – 16 -11.00 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Jul 05 16 – 24 -7.70 TRUE
3 Knights vs. Warriors Jul 06 20 – 24 8.50 FALSE
4 Sharks vs. Broncos Jul 07 22 – 24 4.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Titans Jul 12 Panthers 5.10
2 Knights vs. Bulldogs Jul 12 Knights 10.10
3 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Jul 13 Rabbitohs 8.40
4 Broncos vs. Warriors Jul 13 Broncos 5.00
5 Storm vs. Sharks Jul 13 Storm 14.70
6 Roosters vs. Cowboys Jul 14 Roosters 12.30
7 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Jul 14 Wests Tigers 0.30
8 Dragons vs. Raiders Jul 14 Raiders -3.30

 

July 2, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

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Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.19 17.67 -0.50
Hurricanes 8.80 9.43 -0.60
Jaguares 7.36 -0.26 7.60
Chiefs 5.91 8.56 -2.60
Highlanders 4.28 4.01 0.30
Brumbies 2.03 0.00 2.00
Bulls 1.28 -3.79 5.10
Lions 0.40 8.28 -7.90
Blues -0.05 -3.42 3.40
Stormers -0.71 -0.39 -0.30
Sharks -0.85 0.45 -1.30
Waratahs -2.48 2.00 -4.50
Reds -5.86 -8.19 2.30
Rebels -7.82 -7.26 -0.60
Sunwolves -18.47 -16.08 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 125 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Jaguares vs. Brumbies Jun 29 39 – 7 6.20 TRUE
2 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Jun 29 30 – 26 13.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Jaguares Jul 06 Crusaders 13.80

 

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