Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

July 2, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 16

By

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.88 6.03 5.80
Roosters 6.59 8.72 -2.10
Raiders 4.88 1.81 3.10
Rabbitohs 3.97 3.89 0.10
Knights 1.37 -8.51 9.90
Sharks 0.05 3.90 -3.90
Eels -1.38 -6.17 4.80
Sea Eagles -1.40 -5.61 4.20
Broncos -1.78 2.63 -4.40
Dragons -2.09 0.06 -2.10
Warriors -2.66 -0.27 -2.40
Cowboys -2.68 0.15 -2.80
Panthers -2.96 0.93 -3.90
Wests Tigers -4.10 -5.57 1.50
Titans -5.06 -3.36 -1.70
Bulldogs -6.62 -0.61 -6.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 116 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jun 27 14 – 19 -5.10 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Cowboys Jun 28 22 – 14 2.90 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Storm Jun 28 12 – 14 -2.30 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jun 29 12 – 30 2.20 FALSE
5 Knights vs. Broncos Jun 29 26 – 12 4.90 TRUE
6 Eels vs. Raiders Jun 29 22 – 16 -4.80 FALSE
7 Warriors vs. Panthers Jun 30 18 – 19 5.70 FALSE
8 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jun 30 14 – 12 -4.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Storm Jul 04 Storm -11.00
2 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Jul 05 Roosters -7.70
3 Knights vs. Warriors Jul 06 Knights 8.50
4 Sharks vs. Broncos Jul 07 Sharks 4.80

 

June 25, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for the Semi-finals

By

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.72 17.67 0.10
Hurricanes 8.27 9.43 -1.20
Chiefs 5.91 8.56 -2.60
Jaguares 5.81 -0.26 6.10
Highlanders 4.28 4.01 0.30
Brumbies 3.57 0.00 3.60
Bulls 1.28 -3.79 5.10
Lions 0.40 8.28 -7.90
Blues -0.05 -3.42 3.40
Stormers -0.71 -0.39 -0.30
Sharks -0.85 0.45 -1.30
Waratahs -2.48 2.00 -4.50
Reds -5.86 -8.19 2.30
Rebels -7.82 -7.26 -0.60
Sunwolves -18.47 -16.08 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 123 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Jan 14 38 – 14 16.00 TRUE
2 Jaguares vs. Chiefs Jun 21 21 – 16 3.80 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Bulls Jun 22 35 – 28 11.50 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Sharks Jun 22 38 – 13 6.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Jaguares vs. Brumbies Jun 29 Jaguares 6.20
2 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Jun 29 Crusaders 13.00

 

June 18, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for the Quarter-finals

By

Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.24 17.67 -0.40
Hurricanes 8.54 9.43 -0.90
Chiefs 5.98 8.56 -2.60
Jaguares 5.74 -0.26 6.00
Highlanders 4.76 4.01 0.80
Brumbies 2.44 0.00 2.40
Bulls 1.01 -3.79 4.80
Lions 0.40 8.28 -7.90
Sharks 0.28 0.45 -0.20
Blues -0.05 -3.42 3.40
Stormers -0.71 -0.39 -0.30
Waratahs -2.48 2.00 -4.50
Reds -5.86 -8.19 2.30
Rebels -7.82 -7.26 -0.60
Sunwolves -18.47 -16.08 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 119 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Waratahs Jun 14 49 – 12 7.70 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Chiefs Jun 14 8 – 59 -4.20 TRUE
3 Jaguares vs. Sunwolves Jun 14 52 – 10 26.30 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Jun 15 29 – 24 13.10 TRUE
5 Brumbies vs. Reds Jun 15 40 – 27 11.60 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Sharks Jun 15 9 – 12 3.30 FALSE
7 Bulls vs. Lions Jun 15 48 – 27 1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Jun 21 Crusaders 16.00
2 Jaguares vs. Chiefs Jun 21 Jaguares 3.80
3 Hurricanes vs. Bulls Jun 22 Hurricanes 11.50
4 Brumbies vs. Sharks Jun 22 Brumbies 6.20

 

NRL Predictions for Round 15

By

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.91 6.03 5.90
Roosters 6.56 8.72 -2.20
Raiders 5.63 1.81 3.80
Rabbitohs 3.97 3.89 0.10
Knights 0.73 -8.51 9.20
Sharks 0.51 3.90 -3.40
Broncos -1.14 2.63 -3.80
Eels -2.14 -6.17 4.00
Warriors -2.19 -0.27 -1.90
Cowboys -2.32 0.15 -2.50
Dragons -2.45 0.06 -2.50
Sea Eagles -2.81 -5.61 2.80
Panthers -3.43 0.93 -4.40
Titans -3.64 -3.36 -0.30
Wests Tigers -4.11 -5.57 1.50
Bulldogs -7.08 -0.61 -6.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 67 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Sharks Jun 13 38 – 12 5.20 TRUE
2 Titans vs. Warriors Jun 14 20 – 24 4.20 FALSE
3 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers Jun 14 26 – 27 5.70 FALSE
4 Storm vs. Knights Jun 15 34 – 4 11.60 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Jun 15 18 – 19 12.30 FALSE
6 Eels vs. Broncos Jun 15 38 – 10 -2.20 FALSE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Dragons Jun 16 22 – 20 2.70 TRUE
8 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Jun 16 34 – 14 16.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jun 27 Rabbitohs -5.10
2 Dragons vs. Cowboys Jun 28 Dragons 2.90
3 Roosters vs. Storm Jun 28 Storm -2.30
4 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jun 29 Titans 2.20
5 Knights vs. Broncos Jun 29 Knights 4.90
6 Eels vs. Raiders Jun 29 Raiders -4.80
7 Warriors vs. Panthers Jun 30 Warriors 5.70
8 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jun 30 Sharks -4.60

 

June 11, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 18

By

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.24 17.67 -0.40
Hurricanes 9.02 9.43 -0.40
Jaguares 4.80 -0.26 5.10
Chiefs 3.17 8.56 -5.40
Highlanders 3.01 4.01 -1.00
Brumbies 2.36 0.00 2.40
Lions 1.55 8.28 -6.70
Sharks -0.10 0.45 -0.50
Bulls -0.15 -3.79 3.60
Stormers -0.33 -0.39 0.10
Blues -0.54 -3.42 2.90
Waratahs -0.72 2.00 -2.70
Rebels -5.02 -7.26 2.20
Reds -5.78 -8.19 2.40
Sunwolves -17.53 -16.08 -1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 112 matches played, 73 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Bulls Jun 07 24 – 24 8.10 FALSE
2 Reds vs. Blues Jun 07 29 – 28 -1.60 FALSE
3 Crusaders vs. Rebels Jun 08 66 – 0 20.80 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Jun 08 24 – 35 2.00 FALSE
5 Lions vs. Hurricanes Jun 08 17 – 37 -1.20 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Sunwolves Jun 08 31 – 18 22.30 TRUE
7 Jaguares vs. Sharks Jun 08 34 – 7 6.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Waratahs Jun 14 Highlanders 7.70
2 Rebels vs. Chiefs Jun 14 Chiefs -4.20
3 Jaguares vs. Sunwolves Jun 14 Jaguares 26.30
4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Jun 15 Hurricanes 13.10
5 Brumbies vs. Reds Jun 15 Brumbies 11.60
6 Stormers vs. Sharks Jun 15 Stormers 3.30
7 Bulls vs. Lions Jun 15 Bulls 1.80

 

NRL Predictions for Round 14

By

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.62 6.03 4.60
Roosters 6.29 8.72 -2.40
Rabbitohs 4.90 3.89 1.00
Raiders 4.18 1.81 2.40
Knights 2.01 -8.51 10.50
Sharks 1.97 3.90 -1.90
Broncos 0.98 2.63 -1.60
Cowboys -1.85 0.15 -2.00
Dragons -2.50 0.06 -2.60
Sea Eagles -2.76 -5.61 2.80
Warriors -2.76 -0.27 -2.50
Titans -3.07 -3.36 0.30
Eels -4.25 -6.17 1.90
Panthers -4.36 0.93 -5.30
Wests Tigers -4.58 -5.57 1.00
Bulldogs -6.81 -0.61 -6.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 100 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Jun 07 12 – 20 8.10 FALSE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Jun 07 0 – 28 -2.10 TRUE
3 Warriors vs. Storm Jun 08 10 – 32 -6.70 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Eels Jun 08 42 – 22 7.50 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Jun 08 20 – 22 4.90 FALSE
6 Broncos vs. Titans Jun 09 18 – 26 9.50 FALSE
7 Panthers vs. Roosters Jun 09 19 – 10 -10.40 FALSE
8 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jun 10 12 – 36 2.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Sharks Jun 13 Raiders 5.20
2 Titans vs. Warriors Jun 14 Titans 4.20
3 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers Jun 14 Cowboys 5.70
4 Storm vs. Knights Jun 15 Storm 11.60
5 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Jun 15 Rabbitohs 12.30
6 Eels vs. Broncos Jun 15 Broncos -2.20
7 Sea Eagles vs. Dragons Jun 16 Sea Eagles 2.70
8 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Jun 16 Roosters 16.10

 

June 4, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 17

By

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.53 17.67 -3.10
Hurricanes 7.90 9.43 -1.50
Jaguares 3.56 -0.26 3.80
Highlanders 3.49 4.01 -0.50
Chiefs 3.17 8.56 -5.40
Lions 2.68 8.28 -5.60
Brumbies 1.58 0.00 1.60
Sharks 1.14 0.45 0.70
Stormers 0.23 -0.39 0.60
Waratahs 0.06 2.00 -1.90
Blues -0.38 -3.42 3.00
Bulls -0.63 -3.79 3.20
Rebels -2.31 -7.26 4.90
Reds -5.94 -8.19 2.20
Sunwolves -18.08 -16.08 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 105 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Bulls May 31 22 – 22 4.80 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs May 31 15 – 20 2.00 FALSE
3 Sunwolves vs. Brumbies Jun 01 19 – 42 -14.70 TRUE
4 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jun 01 40 – 27 -14.70 FALSE
5 Reds vs. Jaguares Jun 01 23 – 34 -4.80 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Hurricanes Jun 01 17 – 30 -1.40 TRUE
7 Lions vs. Stormers Jun 01 41 – 22 4.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Bulls Jun 07 Highlanders 8.10
2 Reds vs. Blues Jun 07 Blues -1.60
3 Crusaders vs. Rebels Jun 08 Crusaders 20.80
4 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Jun 08 Waratahs 2.00
5 Lions vs. Hurricanes Jun 08 Hurricanes -1.20
6 Stormers vs. Sunwolves Jun 08 Stormers 22.30
7 Jaguares vs. Sharks Jun 08 Jaguares 6.40

 

NRL Predictions for Round 13

By

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.55 6.03 3.50
Roosters 7.64 8.72 -1.10
Rabbitohs 6.03 3.89 2.10
Raiders 2.37 1.81 0.60
Broncos 2.20 2.63 -0.40
Sharks 1.09 3.90 -2.80
Knights 0.88 -8.51 9.40
Cowboys -1.36 0.15 -1.50
Warriors -1.69 -0.27 -1.40
Wests Tigers -2.77 -5.57 2.80
Sea Eagles -3.24 -5.61 2.40
Eels -3.38 -6.17 2.80
Titans -4.30 -3.36 -0.90
Dragons -4.35 0.06 -4.40
Bulldogs -4.96 -0.61 -4.30
Panthers -5.72 0.93 -6.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 92 matches played, 60 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles May 30 15 – 12 0.10 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Rabbitohs May 31 26 – 14 -9.40 FALSE
3 Bulldogs vs. Raiders Jun 01 10 – 12 -4.70 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Cowboys Jun 02 4 – 6 0.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Jun 07 Rabbitohs 8.10
2 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Jun 07 Raiders -2.10
3 Warriors vs. Storm Jun 08 Storm -6.70
4 Sharks vs. Eels Jun 08 Sharks 7.50
5 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Jun 08 Cowboys 4.90
6 Broncos vs. Titans Jun 09 Broncos 9.50
7 Panthers vs. Roosters Jun 09 Roosters -10.40
8 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jun 10 Bulldogs 2.40

 

May 28, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 16

By

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.19 17.67 -1.50
Hurricanes 7.20 9.43 -2.20
Highlanders 3.49 4.01 -0.50
Jaguares 3.19 -0.26 3.50
Sharks 1.84 0.45 1.40
Lions 1.79 8.28 -6.50
Chiefs 1.51 8.56 -7.00
Stormers 1.12 -0.39 1.50
Brumbies 1.08 0.00 1.10
Blues -0.09 -3.42 3.30
Waratahs -0.36 2.00 -2.40
Bulls -0.92 -3.79 2.90
Rebels -1.89 -7.26 5.40
Reds -5.56 -8.19 2.60
Sunwolves -17.58 -16.08 -1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 98 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Reds May 24 19 – 13 11.80 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Bulls May 24 22 – 10 5.20 TRUE
3 Sunwolves vs. Rebels May 25 7 – 52 -7.20 TRUE
4 Crusaders vs. Blues May 25 19 – 11 21.40 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Jaguares May 25 15 – 23 1.60 FALSE
6 Stormers vs. Highlanders May 25 34 – 22 0.20 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Lions May 25 27 – 17 2.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Bulls May 31 Blues 4.80
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs May 31 Rebels 2.00
3 Sunwolves vs. Brumbies Jun 01 Brumbies -14.70
4 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jun 01 Crusaders -14.70
5 Reds vs. Jaguares Jun 01 Jaguares -4.80
6 Sharks vs. Hurricanes Jun 01 Hurricanes -1.40
7 Lions vs. Stormers Jun 01 Lions 4.20

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Final

By

Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 11.16 11.19 -0.00
Exeter Chiefs 10.40 11.13 -0.70
Northampton Saints 4.09 3.42 0.70
Bath Rugby 3.47 3.11 0.40
Gloucester Rugby 3.21 1.23 2.00
Harlequins 2.39 2.05 0.30
Wasps 1.76 8.30 -6.50
Sale Sharks 1.56 -0.81 2.40
Leicester Tigers -0.33 6.26 -6.60
Worcester Warriors -1.28 -5.18 3.90
Bristol -1.29 -5.60 4.30
Newcastle Falcons -3.55 -3.51 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 134 matches played, 91 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Saracens vs. Gloucester Rugby May 26 44 – 19 12.20 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints May 26 42 – 12 10.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Jun 02 Saracens -0.80

 

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