Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

May 28, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.55 6.03 3.50
Roosters 7.64 8.72 -1.10
Rabbitohs 7.53 3.89 3.60
Raiders 2.56 1.81 0.80
Broncos 2.20 2.63 -0.40
Sharks 1.09 3.90 -2.80
Knights 0.88 -8.51 9.40
Cowboys -1.53 0.15 -1.70
Warriors -1.69 -0.27 -1.40
Wests Tigers -2.77 -5.57 2.80
Sea Eagles -3.04 -5.61 2.60
Titans -4.13 -3.36 -0.80
Dragons -4.35 0.06 -4.40
Eels -4.88 -6.17 1.30
Bulldogs -5.15 -0.61 -4.50
Panthers -5.92 0.93 -6.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Panthers May 23 10 – 16 5.70 FALSE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Titans May 24 18 – 36 7.70 FALSE
3 Knights vs. Roosters May 24 38 – 12 -8.60 FALSE
4 Raiders vs. Cowboys May 25 16 – 22 9.20 FALSE
5 Warriors vs. Broncos May 25 2 – 8 1.70 FALSE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers May 25 32 – 16 12.90 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Storm May 26 6 – 28 -10.00 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Sharks May 26 9 – 22 -0.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles May 30 Panthers 0.10
2 Eels vs. Rabbitohs May 31 Rabbitohs -9.40
3 Bulldogs vs. Raiders Jun 01 Raiders -4.70
4 Titans vs. Cowboys Jun 02 Titans 0.40

 

May 21, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.00 17.67 -0.70
Hurricanes 7.20 9.43 -2.20
Highlanders 4.20 4.01 0.20
Jaguares 2.61 -0.26 2.90
Lions 2.23 8.28 -6.10
Chiefs 1.86 8.56 -6.70
Sharks 1.40 0.45 1.00
Brumbies 0.68 0.00 0.70
Stormers 0.41 -0.39 0.80
Waratahs 0.21 2.00 -1.80
Bulls -0.51 -3.79 3.30
Blues -0.90 -3.42 2.50
Rebels -4.16 -7.26 3.10
Reds -5.91 -8.19 2.30
Sunwolves -15.31 -16.08 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 91 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Jaguares May 17 20 – 28 10.80 FALSE
2 Blues vs. Chiefs May 18 23 – 8 -1.20 FALSE
3 Rebels vs. Bulls May 18 17 – 32 2.40 FALSE
4 Reds vs. Waratahs May 18 32 – 40 -1.90 TRUE
5 Lions vs. Highlanders May 18 38 – 29 1.10 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Crusaders May 18 19 – 19 -14.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Reds May 24 Chiefs 11.80
2 Brumbies vs. Bulls May 24 Brumbies 5.20
3 Sunwolves vs. Rebels May 25 Rebels -7.20
4 Crusaders vs. Blues May 25 Crusaders 21.40
5 Waratahs vs. Jaguares May 25 Waratahs 1.60
6 Stormers vs. Highlanders May 25 Stormers 0.20
7 Sharks vs. Lions May 25 Sharks 2.70

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 10.55 11.19 -0.60
Exeter Chiefs 9.55 11.13 -1.60
Northampton Saints 4.94 3.42 1.50
Gloucester Rugby 3.82 1.23 2.60
Bath Rugby 3.47 3.11 0.40
Harlequins 2.39 2.05 0.30
Wasps 1.76 8.30 -6.50
Sale Sharks 1.56 -0.81 2.40
Leicester Tigers -0.33 6.26 -6.60
Worcester Warriors -1.28 -5.18 3.90
Bristol -1.29 -5.60 4.30
Newcastle Falcons -3.55 -3.51 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 132 matches played, 89 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints May 18 40 – 21 9.10 TRUE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Rugby May 18 31 – 32 2.30 FALSE
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol May 18 12 – 19 4.40 FALSE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Rugby May 18 46 – 41 2.90 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Harlequins May 18 27 – 25 5.50 TRUE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Saracens May 18 31 – 29 -7.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Saracens vs. Gloucester Rugby May 26 Saracens 12.20
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints May 26 Exeter Chiefs 10.10

 

Pro14 Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Glasgow Warriors 9.88 8.55 1.30
Leinster 9.88 9.80 0.10
Munster 9.40 8.08 1.30
Connacht 2.67 0.01 2.70
Scarlets 2.67 6.39 -3.70
Ulster 1.71 2.07 -0.40
Ospreys 1.47 -0.86 2.30
Edinburgh 1.20 -0.64 1.80
Cardiff Blues 0.25 0.24 0.00
Treviso 0.21 -5.19 5.40
Cheetahs -1.42 -0.83 -0.60
Dragons -9.57 -8.59 -1.00
Southern Kings -12.62 -7.91 -4.70
Zebre -15.18 -10.57 -4.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 151 matches played, 115 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Ulster May 18 50 – 20 11.20 TRUE
2 Leinster vs. Munster May 19 24 – 9 4.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Leinster May 26 Glasgow Warriors 4.50

 

NRL Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.07 8.72 1.40
Storm 8.71 6.03 2.70
Rabbitohs 7.31 3.89 3.40
Raiders 3.62 1.81 1.80
Broncos 1.67 2.63 -1.00
Sharks 0.23 3.90 -3.70
Warriors -1.15 -0.27 -0.90
Sea Eagles -1.24 -5.61 4.40
Knights -1.54 -8.51 7.00
Wests Tigers -2.55 -5.57 3.00
Cowboys -2.60 0.15 -2.80
Dragons -3.49 0.06 -3.50
Eels -4.06 -6.17 2.10
Bulldogs -4.31 -0.61 -3.70
Titans -5.93 -3.36 -2.60
Panthers -6.74 0.93 -7.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 55 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Wests Tigers May 16 24 – 22 16.30 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Warriors May 17 10 – 30 2.00 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Roosters May 17 15 – 10 -7.10 FALSE
4 Titans vs. Bulldogs May 18 16 – 22 2.60 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Eels May 18 17 – 10 4.00 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs May 18 12 – 16 -0.10 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Knights May 19 12 – 45 6.60 FALSE
8 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles May 19 14 – 24 6.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Panthers May 23 Eels 5.70
2 Sea Eagles vs. Titans May 24 Sea Eagles 7.70
3 Knights vs. Roosters May 24 Roosters -8.60
4 Raiders vs. Cowboys May 25 Raiders 9.20
5 Warriors vs. Broncos May 25 Warriors 1.70
6 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers May 25 Rabbitohs 12.90
7 Bulldogs vs. Storm May 26 Storm -10.00
8 Dragons vs. Sharks May 26 Sharks -0.70

 

May 15, 2019

Updated NRL Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Round 9 games all being played in Brisbane caused problems for me again. I had changed the order of the teams for the Sea Eagles versus Broncos game to give them home ground advantage which then impacted my routines for webscraping results and adding them to my database. I thought I had corrected the resulting errors but missed one. Since that affected the updated ratings and the predictions for Round 10, I have updated the whole post.

Thanks to Chad James for advising me of the error.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.91 8.72 2.20
Storm 9.71 6.03 3.70
Rabbitohs 7.04 3.89 3.20
Raiders 3.89 1.81 2.10
Sharks 1.41 3.90 -2.50
Broncos 0.82 2.63 -1.80
Dragons -0.72 0.06 -0.80
Sea Eagles -2.42 -5.61 3.20
Warriors -2.69 -0.27 -2.40
Cowboys -2.80 0.15 -3.00
Wests Tigers -3.54 -5.57 2.00
Eels -3.85 -6.17 2.30
Knights -4.31 -8.51 4.20
Bulldogs -4.91 -0.61 -4.30
Panthers -5.20 0.93 -6.10
Titans -5.33 -3.36 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Titans vs. Sharks May 09 18 – 26 -6.50 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers May 10 30 – 4 -2.30 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles May 10 26 – 10 4.60 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Knights May 11 10 – 22 1.30 FALSE
5 Warriors vs. Dragons May 11 26 – 18 -3.60 FALSE
6 Storm vs. Eels May 11 64 – 10 7.00 TRUE
7 Roosters vs. Raiders May 12 30 – 24 7.20 TRUE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys May 12 32 – 16 8.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Wests Tigers May 16 Storm 16.30
2 Panthers vs. Warriors May 17 Panthers 2.00
3 Broncos vs. Roosters May 17 Roosters -7.10
4 Titans vs. Bulldogs May 18 Titans 2.60
5 Cowboys vs. Eels May 18 Cowboys 4.00
6 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs May 18 Rabbitohs -0.10
7 Dragons vs. Knights May 19 Dragons 6.60
8 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles May 19 Sharks 6.80

 

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May 14, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.86 17.67 0.20
Hurricanes 8.33 9.43 -1.10
Highlanders 4.68 4.01 0.70
Chiefs 2.83 8.56 -5.70
Lions 1.75 8.28 -6.50
Jaguares 1.48 -0.26 1.70
Sharks 1.40 0.45 1.00
Brumbies 0.68 0.00 0.70
Waratahs -0.15 2.00 -2.20
Stormers -0.45 -0.39 -0.10
Bulls -1.56 -3.79 2.20
Blues -1.87 -3.42 1.60
Rebels -3.11 -7.26 4.10
Reds -5.54 -8.19 2.60
Sunwolves -15.31 -16.08 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 85 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Hurricanes May 10 12 – 22 -6.20 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Reds May 10 30 – 24 5.90 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Crusaders May 10 13 – 45 -13.20 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Jaguares May 11 32 – 27 7.50 TRUE
5 Chiefs vs. Sharks May 11 29 – 23 5.40 TRUE
6 Lions vs. Waratahs May 11 29 – 28 6.60 TRUE
7 Brumbies vs. Sunwolves May 12 33 – 0 18.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Jaguares May 17 Hurricanes 10.80
2 Blues vs. Chiefs May 18 Chiefs -1.20
3 Rebels vs. Bulls May 18 Rebels 2.40
4 Reds vs. Waratahs May 18 Waratahs -1.90
5 Lions vs. Highlanders May 18 Lions 1.10
6 Stormers vs. Crusaders May 18 Crusaders -14.30

 

NRL Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.91 8.72 2.20
Storm 9.71 6.03 3.70
Rabbitohs 7.04 3.89 3.20
Raiders 3.89 1.81 2.10
Sharks 1.41 3.90 -2.50
Broncos 0.82 2.63 -1.80
Dragons -0.72 0.06 -0.80
Sea Eagles -2.42 -5.61 3.20
Warriors -2.69 -0.27 -2.40
Cowboys -2.80 0.15 -3.00
Bulldogs -2.95 -0.61 -2.30
Wests Tigers -3.54 -5.57 2.00
Eels -3.85 -6.17 2.30
Panthers -5.20 0.93 -6.10
Titans -5.33 -3.36 -2.00
Knights -6.27 -8.51 2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Titans vs. Sharks May 09 18 – 26 -6.50 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers May 10 30 – 4 -2.30 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles May 10 26 – 10 4.60 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Knights May 11 32 – 16 1.30 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Dragons May 11 26 – 18 -5.10 FALSE
6 Storm vs. Eels May 11 64 – 10 7.00 TRUE
7 Roosters vs. Raiders May 12 30 – 24 7.20 TRUE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys May 12 32 – 16 8.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Wests Tigers May 16 Storm 16.30
2 Panthers vs. Warriors May 17 Panthers 2.00
3 Broncos vs. Roosters May 17 Roosters -7.10
4 Titans vs. Bulldogs May 18 Titans 0.60
5 Cowboys vs. Eels May 18 Cowboys 4.00
6 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs May 18 Rabbitohs -0.10
7 Dragons vs. Knights May 19 Dragons 8.50
8 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles May 19 Sharks 6.80

 

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May 9, 2019

Updated NRL Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

This is an unusual round in that all games are being played at Suncorp Stadium which is the home ground of the Brisbane Broncos. Hence they have been assigned home ground advantage. All other games are treated as being played at a neutral ground. The exception is the Warriors versus the Dragons where I have penalised the Warriors because they are playing overseas.

Thanks to Ben Frank for alerting me to this unusual situation.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 11.00 8.72 2.30
Rabbitohs 6.54 3.89 2.70
Storm 6.42 6.03 0.40
Raiders 3.81 1.81 2.00
Sharks 1.30 3.90 -2.60
Dragons 0.09 0.06 0.00
Broncos 0.03 2.63 -2.60
Eels -0.56 -6.17 5.60
Sea Eagles -1.62 -5.61 4.00
Cowboys -2.30 0.15 -2.50
Panthers -3.21 0.93 -4.10
Warriors -3.50 -0.27 -3.20
Bulldogs -3.98 -0.61 -3.40
Titans -5.22 -3.36 -1.90
Knights -5.24 -8.51 3.30
Wests Tigers -5.53 -5.57 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos May 02 38 – 6 5.80 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Titans May 03 28 – 14 4.60 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Storm May 03 20 – 18 -2.80 FALSE
4 Raiders vs. Panthers May 04 30 – 12 8.70 TRUE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs May 04 18 – 10 4.90 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers May 04 42 – 12 17.80 TRUE
7 Warriors vs. Knights May 05 18 – 36 10.20 FALSE
8 Eels vs. Dragons May 05 32 – 18 0.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Titans vs. Sharks May 09 Sharks -6.50
2 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers May 10 Panthers -2.30
3 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles May 10 Broncos 4.60
4 Bulldogs vs. Knights May 11 Bulldogs 1.30
5 Warriors vs. Dragons May 11 Dragons -5.10
6 Storm vs. Eels May 11 Storm 7.00
7 Roosters vs. Raiders May 12 Roosters 7.20
8 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys May 12 Rabbitohs 8.80

 

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May 7, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.73 17.67 -0.90
Hurricanes 8.10 9.43 -1.30
Highlanders 4.83 4.01 0.80
Chiefs 2.79 8.56 -5.80
Lions 2.08 8.28 -6.20
Sharks 1.44 0.45 1.00
Jaguares 1.33 -0.26 1.60
Brumbies -0.21 0.00 -0.20
Bulls -0.43 -3.79 3.40
Stormers -0.45 -0.39 -0.10
Waratahs -0.49 2.00 -2.50
Blues -1.65 -3.42 1.80
Rebels -3.12 -7.26 4.10
Reds -5.53 -8.19 2.70
Sunwolves -14.43 -16.08 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 78 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Sharks May 03 21 – 21 21.90 FALSE
2 Reds vs. Sunwolves May 03 32 – 26 13.80 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Rebels May 04 29 – 19 15.90 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Chiefs May 04 31 – 31 6.30 FALSE
5 Brumbies vs. Blues May 04 26 – 21 5.50 TRUE
6 Bulls vs. Waratahs May 04 28 – 21 3.70 TRUE
7 Jaguares vs. Stormers May 04 30 – 25 5.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Hurricanes May 10 Hurricanes -6.20
2 Rebels vs. Reds May 10 Rebels 5.90
3 Bulls vs. Crusaders May 10 Crusaders -13.20
4 Highlanders vs. Jaguares May 11 Highlanders 7.50
5 Chiefs vs. Sharks May 11 Chiefs 5.40
6 Lions vs. Waratahs May 11 Lions 6.60
7 Brumbies vs. Sunwolves May 12 Brumbies 18.20

 

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