Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

May 7, 2019

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 22

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Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 11.03 11.19 -0.20
Exeter Chiefs 9.05 11.13 -2.10
Northampton Saints 5.44 3.42 2.00
Gloucester Rugby 4.01 1.23 2.80
Bath Rugby 3.18 3.11 0.10
Wasps 2.08 8.30 -6.20
Harlequins 2.07 2.05 0.00
Sale Sharks 1.37 -0.81 2.20
Leicester Tigers -0.03 6.26 -6.30
Worcester Warriors -1.76 -5.18 3.40
Bristol -1.85 -5.60 3.80
Newcastle Falcons -3.00 -3.51 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 86 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath Rugby vs. Wasps May 04 29 – 17 5.40 TRUE
2 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks May 04 20 – 20 2.80 FALSE
3 Gloucester Rugby vs. Newcastle Falcons May 04 28 – 19 13.30 TRUE
4 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers May 04 23 – 19 8.40 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors May 04 38 – 10 11.20 TRUE
6 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs May 04 38 – 7 5.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints May 18 Exeter Chiefs 9.10
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Rugby May 18 Leicester Tigers 2.30
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol May 18 Newcastle Falcons 4.40
4 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Rugby May 18 Sale Sharks 2.90
5 Wasps vs. Harlequins May 18 Wasps 5.50
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Saracens May 18 Saracens -7.30

 

NRL Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 11.00 8.72 2.30
Rabbitohs 6.54 3.89 2.70
Storm 6.42 6.03 0.40
Raiders 3.81 1.81 2.00
Sharks 1.30 3.90 -2.60
Dragons 0.09 0.06 0.00
Broncos 0.03 2.63 -2.60
Eels -0.56 -6.17 5.60
Sea Eagles -1.62 -5.61 4.00
Cowboys -2.30 0.15 -2.50
Panthers -3.21 0.93 -4.10
Warriors -3.50 -0.27 -3.20
Bulldogs -3.98 -0.61 -3.40
Titans -5.22 -3.36 -1.90
Knights -5.24 -8.51 3.30
Wests Tigers -5.53 -5.57 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos May 02 38 – 6 5.80 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Titans May 03 28 – 14 4.60 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Storm May 03 20 – 18 -2.80 FALSE
4 Raiders vs. Panthers May 04 30 – 12 8.70 TRUE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs May 04 18 – 10 4.90 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers May 04 42 – 12 17.80 TRUE
7 Warriors vs. Knights May 05 18 – 36 10.20 FALSE
8 Eels vs. Dragons May 05 32 – 18 0.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Titans vs. Sharks May 09 Sharks -3.50
2 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers May 10 Wests Tigers 0.70
3 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos May 10 Sea Eagles 1.40
4 Bulldogs vs. Knights May 11 Bulldogs 4.30
5 Warriors vs. Dragons May 11 Warriors 0.90
6 Storm vs. Eels May 11 Storm 10.00
7 Roosters vs. Raiders May 12 Roosters 10.20
8 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys May 12 Rabbitohs 11.80

 

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Pro14 Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Munster 9.89 8.08 1.80
Leinster 9.40 9.80 -0.40
Glasgow Warriors 9.16 8.55 0.60
Connacht 2.67 0.01 2.70
Scarlets 2.67 6.39 -3.70
Ulster 2.43 2.07 0.40
Ospreys 1.47 -0.86 2.30
Edinburgh 1.20 -0.64 1.80
Cardiff Blues 0.25 0.24 0.00
Treviso 0.21 -5.19 5.40
Cheetahs -1.42 -0.83 -0.60
Dragons -9.57 -8.59 -1.00
Southern Kings -12.62 -7.91 -4.70
Zebre -15.18 -10.57 -4.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 149 matches played, 113 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Munster vs. Treviso May 05 15 – 13 15.30 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Connacht May 05 21 – 13 3.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Ulster May 18 Glasgow Warriors 11.20
2 Leinster vs. Munster May 19 Leinster 4.00

 

April 30, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 18.04 17.67 0.40
Hurricanes 8.46 9.43 -1.00
Highlanders 5.20 4.01 1.20
Chiefs 2.41 8.56 -6.10
Lions 2.08 8.28 -6.20
Jaguares 1.39 -0.26 1.70
Sharks 0.12 0.45 -0.30
Brumbies -0.18 0.00 -0.20
Waratahs -0.29 2.00 -2.30
Stormers -0.50 -0.39 -0.10
Bulls -0.63 -3.79 3.20
Blues -1.68 -3.42 1.70
Rebels -3.47 -7.26 3.80
Reds -5.07 -8.19 3.10
Sunwolves -14.90 -16.08 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 71 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Lions Apr 26 36 – 10 19.10 TRUE
2 Sunwolves vs. Highlanders Apr 27 0 – 52 -11.20 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 27 47 – 19 7.00 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Sharks Apr 27 15 – 23 5.20 FALSE
5 Stormers vs. Bulls Apr 27 24 – 23 4.00 TRUE
6 Jaguares vs. Brumbies Apr 27 20 – 15 5.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Sharks May 03 Crusaders 21.90
2 Reds vs. Sunwolves May 03 Reds 13.80
3 Hurricanes vs. Rebels May 04 Hurricanes 15.90
4 Highlanders vs. Chiefs May 04 Highlanders 6.30
5 Brumbies vs. Blues May 04 Brumbies 5.50
6 Bulls vs. Waratahs May 04 Bulls 3.70
7 Jaguares vs. Stormers May 04 Jaguares 5.90

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 21

By

Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 10.07 11.13 -1.10
Saracens 10.01 11.19 -1.20
Northampton Saints 4.70 3.42 1.30
Gloucester Rugby 4.39 1.23 3.20
Wasps 2.67 8.30 -5.60
Bath Rugby 2.59 3.11 -0.50
Harlequins 2.47 2.05 0.40
Sale Sharks 1.12 -0.81 1.90
Leicester Tigers -0.43 6.26 -6.70
Worcester Warriors -1.02 -5.18 4.20
Bristol -1.60 -5.60 4.00
Newcastle Falcons -3.38 -3.51 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Apr 27 17 – 15 14.30 TRUE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Apr 27 20 – 23 7.70 FALSE
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints Apr 27 17 – 31 -1.40 TRUE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Rugby Apr 27 6 – 3 4.30 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Saracens Apr 27 14 – 31 -0.40 TRUE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Gloucester Rugby Apr 27 27 – 20 -0.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath Rugby vs. Wasps May 04 Bath Rugby 5.40
2 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks May 04 Bristol 2.80
3 Gloucester Rugby vs. Newcastle Falcons May 04 Gloucester Rugby 13.30
4 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers May 04 Harlequins 8.40
5 Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors May 04 Northampton Saints 11.20
6 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs May 04 Saracens 5.40

 

Pro14 Predictions for the Quarter-finals

By

Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Munster 10.44 8.08 2.40
Leinster 9.40 9.80 -0.40
Glasgow Warriors 9.16 8.55 0.60
Connacht 3.03 0.01 3.00
Scarlets 2.67 6.39 -3.70
Ulster 2.08 2.07 0.00
Ospreys 1.47 -0.86 2.30
Edinburgh 1.20 -0.64 1.80
Cardiff Blues 0.25 0.24 0.00
Treviso -0.34 -5.19 4.90
Cheetahs -1.42 -0.83 -0.60
Dragons -9.57 -8.59 -1.00
Southern Kings -12.62 -7.91 -4.70
Zebre -15.18 -10.57 -4.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 147 matches played, 111 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Ospreys Apr 27 23 – 26 4.50 FALSE
2 Cheetahs vs. Southern Kings Apr 27 61 – 25 14.10 TRUE
3 Dragons vs. Scarlets Apr 27 34 – 32 -8.70 FALSE
4 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors Apr 27 34 – 10 -5.50 FALSE
5 Munster vs. Connacht Apr 27 27 – 14 11.70 TRUE
6 Ulster vs. Leinster Apr 27 14 – 13 -3.50 FALSE
7 Zebre vs. Treviso Apr 27 11 – 25 -9.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Munster vs. Treviso May 05 Munster 15.30
2 Ulster vs. Connacht May 05 Ulster 3.50

 

NRL Predictions for Round 8

By

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.14 8.72 1.40
Storm 6.75 6.03 0.70
Rabbitohs 4.71 3.89 0.80
Raiders 3.16 1.81 1.40
Broncos 1.86 2.63 -0.80
Dragons 1.04 0.06 1.00
Sharks 0.97 3.90 -2.90
Eels -1.51 -6.17 4.70
Warriors -1.53 -0.27 -1.30
Sea Eagles -1.84 -5.61 3.80
Panthers -2.57 0.93 -3.50
Cowboys -2.96 0.15 -3.10
Bulldogs -3.77 -0.61 -3.20
Titans -4.56 -3.36 -1.20
Wests Tigers -4.67 -5.57 0.90
Knights -7.21 -8.51 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Dragons Apr 25 20 – 10 12.40 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 13 – 12 14.70 TRUE
3 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Apr 26 24 – 12 0.60 TRUE
4 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Apr 26 18 – 22 -4.30 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Apr 27 30 – 14 0.80 TRUE
6 Broncos vs. Sharks Apr 27 29 – 6 0.80 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Apr 28 24 – 20 -3.00 FALSE
8 Knights vs. Eels Apr 28 28 – 14 -5.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos May 02 Rabbitohs 5.80
2 Cowboys vs. Titans May 03 Cowboys 4.60
3 Sharks vs. Storm May 03 Storm -2.80
4 Raiders vs. Panthers May 04 Raiders 8.70
5 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs May 04 Sea Eagles 4.90
6 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers May 04 Roosters 17.80
7 Warriors vs. Knights May 05 Warriors 10.20
8 Eels vs. Dragons May 05 Eels 0.50

 

April 22, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.63 17.67 -0.00
Hurricanes 7.20 9.43 -2.20
Chiefs 3.67 8.56 -4.90
Highlanders 2.76 4.01 -1.20
Lions 2.50 8.28 -5.80
Jaguares 1.42 -0.26 1.70
Waratahs 0.50 2.00 -1.50
Brumbies -0.22 0.00 -0.20
Stormers -0.32 -0.39 0.10
Sharks -0.67 0.45 -1.10
Bulls -0.81 -3.79 3.00
Blues -1.68 -3.42 1.70
Rebels -3.47 -7.26 3.80
Reds -5.07 -8.19 3.10
Sunwolves -12.45 -16.08 3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 65 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Lions Apr 19 17 – 23 6.70 FALSE
2 Sharks vs. Reds Apr 19 14 – 21 10.50 FALSE
3 Sunwolves vs. Hurricanes Apr 20 23 – 29 -17.00 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Blues Apr 20 24 – 12 7.40 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Rebels Apr 20 23 – 20 8.10 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Brumbies Apr 20 17 – 19 4.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Lions Apr 26 Crusaders 19.10
2 Sunwolves vs. Highlanders Apr 27 Highlanders -11.20
3 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 27 Hurricanes 7.00
4 Waratahs vs. Sharks Apr 27 Waratahs 5.20
5 Stormers vs. Bulls Apr 27 Stormers 4.00
6 Jaguares vs. Brumbies Apr 27 Jaguares 5.60

 

NRL Predictions for Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.31 8.72 1.60
Storm 7.71 6.03 1.70
Rabbitohs 4.73 3.89 0.80
Raiders 3.65 1.81 1.80
Sharks 2.53 3.90 -1.40
Dragons 0.87 0.06 0.80
Broncos 0.30 2.63 -2.30
Eels -0.15 -6.17 6.00
Cowboys -2.16 0.15 -2.30
Sea Eagles -2.33 -5.61 3.30
Warriors -2.49 -0.27 -2.20
Panthers -2.59 0.93 -3.50
Titans -3.50 -3.36 -0.10
Bulldogs -4.57 -0.61 -4.00
Wests Tigers -5.74 -5.57 -0.20
Knights -8.57 -8.51 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Panthers Apr 18 24 – 20 8.80 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Apr 19 6 – 14 -6.00 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Roosters Apr 19 20 – 21 0.60 FALSE
4 Warriors vs. Cowboys Apr 20 10 – 17 6.00 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Apr 20 12 – 10 6.90 TRUE
6 Titans vs. Knights Apr 21 38 – 14 5.50 TRUE
7 Raiders vs. Broncos Apr 21 26 – 22 6.70 TRUE
8 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 22 51 – 6 2.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Dragons Apr 25 Roosters 12.40
2 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 Storm 14.70
3 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Apr 26 Bulldogs 0.60
4 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Apr 26 Rabbitohs -4.30
5 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Apr 27 Wests Tigers 0.80
6 Broncos vs. Sharks Apr 27 Broncos 0.80
7 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Apr 28 Raiders -3.00
8 Knights vs. Eels Apr 28 Eels -5.40

 

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April 16, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.63 17.67 -0.00
Hurricanes 7.86 9.43 -1.60
Chiefs 4.44 8.56 -4.10
Highlanders 2.48 4.01 -1.50
Lions 1.73 8.28 -6.60
Jaguares 1.42 -0.26 1.70
Waratahs 0.81 2.00 -1.20
Sharks 0.38 0.45 -0.10
Stormers 0.08 -0.39 0.50
Brumbies -0.62 0.00 -0.60
Bulls -0.81 -3.79 3.00
Blues -1.40 -3.42 2.00
Rebels -3.78 -7.26 3.50
Reds -6.11 -8.19 2.10
Sunwolves -13.11 -16.08 3.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 59 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Apr 12 43 – 17 17.60 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Stormers Apr 12 24 – 41 2.50 FALSE
3 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 13 33 – 29 10.10 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Lions Apr 13 31 – 20 0.40 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Jaguares Apr 13 17 – 51 8.00 FALSE
6 Bulls vs. Reds Apr 13 32 – 17 8.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Lions Apr 19 Chiefs 6.70
2 Sharks vs. Reds Apr 19 Sharks 10.50
3 Sunwolves vs. Hurricanes Apr 20 Hurricanes -17.00
4 Highlanders vs. Blues Apr 20 Highlanders 7.40
5 Waratahs vs. Rebels Apr 20 Waratahs 8.10
6 Stormers vs. Brumbies Apr 20 Stormers 4.70

 

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