Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

April 16, 2019

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 10.66 11.13 -0.50
Saracens 9.27 11.19 -1.90
Gloucester Rugby 4.81 1.23 3.60
Northampton Saints 4.09 3.42 0.70
Wasps 3.41 8.30 -4.90
Bath Rugby 2.47 3.11 -0.60
Harlequins 1.88 2.05 -0.20
Sale Sharks 1.23 -0.81 2.00
Leicester Tigers 0.10 6.26 -6.20
Worcester Warriors -1.43 -5.18 3.70
Bristol -2.13 -5.60 3.50
Newcastle Falcons -2.78 -3.51 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 114 matches played, 77 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Saracens Apr 13 23 – 21 -6.80 FALSE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Wasps Apr 13 19 – 26 14.60 FALSE
3 Gloucester Rugby vs. Bath Rugby Apr 13 27 – 23 8.70 TRUE
4 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Apr 13 19 – 20 4.20 FALSE
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 13 22 – 27 3.50 FALSE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Sale Sharks Apr 13 39 – 17 1.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Apr 27 Exeter Chiefs 14.30
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Apr 27 Leicester Tigers 7.70
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints Apr 27 Northampton Saints -1.40
4 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Rugby Apr 27 Sale Sharks 4.30
5 Wasps vs. Saracens Apr 27 Saracens -0.40
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Gloucester Rugby Apr 27 Gloucester Rugby -0.70

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Munster 10.34 8.08 2.30
Glasgow Warriors 10.17 8.55 1.60
Leinster 9.76 9.80 -0.00
Scarlets 3.14 6.39 -3.30
Connacht 3.13 0.01 3.10
Ulster 1.71 2.07 -0.40
Ospreys 0.87 -0.86 1.70
Cardiff Blues 0.84 0.24 0.60
Edinburgh 0.19 -0.64 0.80
Treviso -0.69 -5.19 4.50
Cheetahs -2.24 -0.83 -1.40
Dragons -10.04 -8.59 -1.40
Southern Kings -11.81 -7.91 -3.90
Zebre -14.83 -10.57 -4.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 140 matches played, 108 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Dragons Apr 13 38 – 13 11.20 TRUE
2 Connacht vs. Cardiff Blues Apr 13 29 – 22 6.70 TRUE
3 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Apr 13 7 – 29 4.90 FALSE
4 Leinster vs. Glasgow Warriors Apr 13 24 – 39 5.60 FALSE
5 Scarlets vs. Zebre Apr 13 42 – 0 20.90 TRUE
6 Southern Kings vs. Ospreys Apr 13 7 – 43 -6.10 TRUE
7 Treviso vs. Munster Apr 13 28 – 37 -6.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Ospreys Apr 27 Cardiff Blues 4.50
2 Cheetahs vs. Southern Kings Apr 27 Cheetahs 14.10
3 Dragons vs. Scarlets Apr 27 Scarlets -8.70
4 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors Apr 27 Glasgow Warriors -5.50
5 Munster vs. Connacht Apr 27 Munster 11.70
6 Ulster vs. Leinster Apr 27 Leinster -3.50
7 Zebre vs. Treviso Apr 27 Treviso -9.60

 

NRL Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.20 8.72 1.50
Storm 7.82 6.03 1.80
Rabbitohs 4.59 3.89 0.70
Raiders 3.84 1.81 2.00
Sharks 2.86 3.90 -1.00
Dragons 1.21 0.06 1.20
Broncos 0.11 2.63 -2.50
Warriors -1.58 -0.27 -1.30
Sea Eagles -2.67 -5.61 2.90
Wests Tigers -2.78 -5.57 2.80
Panthers -2.92 0.93 -3.80
Cowboys -3.07 0.15 -3.20
Eels -3.11 -6.17 3.10
Bulldogs -4.43 -0.61 -3.80
Titans -4.79 -3.36 -1.40
Knights -7.27 -8.51 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Apr 11 16 – 22 7.80 FALSE
2 Titans vs. Panthers Apr 12 30 – 24 0.30 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Storm Apr 12 12 – 18 -8.20 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Apr 13 28 – 24 11.80 TRUE
5 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Apr 13 18 – 26 -0.60 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Roosters Apr 13 16 – 30 -2.80 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Apr 14 40 – 4 4.20 TRUE
8 Raiders vs. Eels Apr 14 19 – 0 8.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Panthers Apr 18 Sharks 8.80
2 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Apr 19 Rabbitohs -6.00
3 Storm vs. Roosters Apr 19 Storm 0.60
4 Warriors vs. Cowboys Apr 20 Warriors 6.00
5 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Apr 20 Dragons 6.90
6 Titans vs. Knights Apr 21 Titans 5.50
7 Raiders vs. Broncos Apr 21 Raiders 6.70
8 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 22 Eels 2.70

 

April 9, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.13 17.67 -0.50
Hurricanes 7.86 9.43 -1.60
Chiefs 4.80 8.56 -3.80
Highlanders 2.98 4.01 -1.00
Sharks 2.90 0.45 2.50
Lions 2.37 8.28 -5.90
Waratahs 0.81 2.00 -1.20
Jaguares -1.09 -0.26 -0.80
Stormers -1.09 -0.39 -0.70
Bulls -1.20 -3.79 2.60
Brumbies -1.26 0.00 -1.30
Blues -1.76 -3.42 1.70
Rebels -2.61 -7.26 4.60
Reds -5.73 -8.19 2.50
Sunwolves -13.11 -16.08 3.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 53 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Apr 05 28 – 31 -1.20 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Stormers Apr 05 24 – 12 -2.40 FALSE
3 Lions vs. Sharks Apr 05 5 – 42 8.40 FALSE
4 Crusaders vs. Brumbies Apr 06 36 – 14 22.40 TRUE
5 Blues vs. Waratahs Apr 06 32 – 29 1.20 TRUE
6 Rebels vs. Sunwolves Apr 06 42 – 15 12.80 TRUE
7 Bulls vs. Jaguares Apr 06 20 – 22 4.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Apr 12 Crusaders 17.60
2 Rebels vs. Stormers Apr 12 Rebels 2.50
3 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 13 Chiefs 10.10
4 Brumbies vs. Lions Apr 13 Brumbies 0.40
5 Sharks vs. Jaguares Apr 13 Sharks 8.00
6 Bulls vs. Reds Apr 13 Bulls 8.50

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 11.56 11.13 0.40
Saracens 9.73 11.19 -1.50
Gloucester Rugby 5.23 1.23 4.00
Northampton Saints 3.62 3.42 0.20
Wasps 2.51 8.30 -5.80
Harlequins 2.35 2.05 0.30
Sale Sharks 2.11 -0.81 2.90
Bath Rugby 2.05 3.11 -1.10
Leicester Tigers -0.34 6.26 -6.60
Worcester Warriors -2.31 -5.18 2.90
Newcastle Falcons -2.33 -3.51 1.20
Bristol -2.59 -5.60 3.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath Rugby vs. Bristol Apr 06 26 – 19 10.80 TRUE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 06 20 – 52 -4.20 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester Rugby Apr 06 31 – 40 5.20 FALSE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Apr 06 28 – 17 4.00 TRUE
5 Saracens vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 06 26 – 12 18.30 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors Apr 06 28 – 16 10.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Saracens Apr 13 Saracens -6.80
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Wasps Apr 13 Exeter Chiefs 14.60
3 Gloucester Rugby vs. Bath Rugby Apr 13 Gloucester Rugby 8.70
4 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Apr 13 Harlequins 4.20
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 13 Newcastle Falcons 3.50
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Sale Sharks Apr 13 Worcester Warriors 1.10

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 10.53 9.80 0.70
Munster 10.10 8.08 2.00
Glasgow Warriors 9.40 8.55 0.90
Connacht 3.11 0.01 3.10
Scarlets 2.36 6.39 -4.00
Edinburgh 1.13 -0.64 1.80
Cardiff Blues 0.86 0.24 0.60
Ulster 0.77 2.07 -1.30
Ospreys -0.15 -0.86 0.70
Treviso -0.46 -5.19 4.70
Cheetahs -2.81 -0.83 -2.00
Dragons -9.47 -8.59 -0.90
Southern Kings -10.79 -7.91 -2.90
Zebre -14.04 -10.57 -3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 133 matches played, 103 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Ospreys Apr 06 14 – 31 3.40 FALSE
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Ulster Apr 06 30 – 7 12.20 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Treviso Apr 06 27 – 27 16.80 FALSE
4 Munster vs. Cardiff Blues Apr 06 45 – 21 12.80 TRUE
5 Scarlets vs. Edinburgh Apr 06 12 – 20 6.90 FALSE
6 Southern Kings vs. Dragons Apr 06 18 – 18 3.80 FALSE
7 Zebre vs. Connacht Apr 06 5 – 6 -13.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Dragons Apr 13 Cheetahs 11.20
2 Connacht vs. Cardiff Blues Apr 13 Connacht 6.70
3 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Apr 13 Edinburgh 4.90
4 Leinster vs. Glasgow Warriors Apr 13 Leinster 5.60
5 Scarlets vs. Zebre Apr 13 Scarlets 20.90
6 Southern Kings vs. Ospreys Apr 13 Ospreys -6.10
7 Treviso vs. Munster Apr 13 Munster -6.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 9.41 8.72 0.70
Storm 7.98 6.03 1.90
Rabbitohs 5.13 3.89 1.20
Sharks 3.65 3.90 -0.30
Raiders 3.10 1.81 1.30
Broncos 1.08 2.63 -1.50
Dragons -1.02 0.06 -1.10
Warriors -2.12 -0.27 -1.80
Bulldogs -2.20 -0.61 -1.60
Eels -2.37 -6.17 3.80
Panthers -2.53 0.93 -3.50
Sea Eagles -3.19 -5.61 2.40
Cowboys -3.23 0.15 -3.40
Wests Tigers -3.74 -5.57 1.80
Titans -5.19 -3.36 -1.80
Knights -6.75 -8.51 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 22 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Broncos Apr 04 36 – 4 8.00 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Titans Apr 05 26 – 10 6.20 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Apr 05 9 – 8 4.70 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Apr 06 13 – 12 -6.30 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Apr 06 12 – 30 -0.90 TRUE
6 Eels vs. Sharks Apr 06 24 – 12 -5.50 FALSE
7 Storm vs. Bulldogs Apr 07 18 – 16 15.00 TRUE
8 Knights vs. Dragons Apr 07 12 – 13 -3.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Apr 11 Broncos 7.80
2 Titans vs. Panthers Apr 12 Titans 0.30
3 Cowboys vs. Storm Apr 12 Storm -8.20
4 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Apr 13 Rabbitohs 11.80
5 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Apr 13 Sea Eagles -0.60
6 Sharks vs. Roosters Apr 13 Roosters -2.80
7 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Apr 14 Dragons 4.20
8 Raiders vs. Eels Apr 14 Raiders 8.50

 

April 2, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.15 17.67 -0.50
Hurricanes 7.75 9.43 -1.70
Lions 5.10 8.28 -3.20
Chiefs 4.80 8.56 -3.80
Highlanders 3.09 4.01 -0.90
Waratahs 0.91 2.00 -1.10
Sharks 0.17 0.45 -0.30
Stormers -0.22 -0.39 0.20
Bulls -0.80 -3.79 3.00
Brumbies -1.29 0.00 -1.30
Jaguares -1.50 -0.26 -1.20
Blues -1.87 -3.42 1.60
Rebels -3.46 -7.26 3.80
Reds -6.59 -8.19 1.60
Sunwolves -12.25 -16.08 3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Mar 29 8 – 32 -3.40 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Sunwolves Mar 29 29 – 31 19.80 FALSE
3 Blues vs. Stormers Mar 30 24 – 9 0.60 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Rebels Mar 30 13 – 32 3.00 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Bulls Mar 30 16 – 19 5.50 FALSE
6 Jaguares vs. Chiefs Mar 30 27 – 30 -2.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Apr 05 Hurricanes -1.20
2 Reds vs. Stormers Apr 05 Stormers -2.40
3 Lions vs. Sharks Apr 05 Lions 8.40
4 Crusaders vs. Brumbies Apr 06 Crusaders 22.40
5 Blues vs. Waratahs Apr 06 Blues 1.20
6 Rebels vs. Sunwolves Apr 06 Rebels 12.80
7 Bulls vs. Jaguares Apr 06 Bulls 4.70

 

NRL Predictions for Round 4

By

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.89 6.03 2.90
Roosters 7.73 8.72 -1.00
Rabbitohs 5.65 3.89 1.80
Sharks 4.87 3.90 1.00
Broncos 2.76 2.63 0.10
Raiders 1.91 1.81 0.10
Dragons -0.88 0.06 -0.90
Cowboys -2.03 0.15 -2.20
Panthers -2.26 0.93 -3.20
Warriors -2.81 -0.27 -2.50
Bulldogs -3.11 -0.61 -2.50
Eels -3.60 -6.17 2.60
Sea Eagles -3.70 -5.61 1.90
Wests Tigers -4.01 -5.57 1.60
Titans -4.50 -3.36 -1.10
Knights -6.89 -8.51 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Dragons Mar 28 24 – 25 7.90 FALSE
2 Raiders vs. Knights Mar 29 17 – 10 12.60 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Roosters Mar 29 18 – 32 -7.40 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Mar 30 46 – 12 -1.30 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Sharks Mar 30 16 – 42 -0.30 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Storm Mar 30 2 – 32 -4.60 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs Mar 31 8 – 22 4.70 FALSE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Mar 31 28 – 20 14.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Broncos Apr 04 Roosters 8.00
2 Warriors vs. Titans Apr 05 Warriors 6.20
3 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Apr 05 Panthers 4.70
4 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Apr 06 Rabbitohs -6.30
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Apr 06 Raiders -0.90
6 Eels vs. Sharks Apr 06 Sharks -5.50
7 Storm vs. Bulldogs Apr 07 Storm 15.00
8 Knights vs. Dragons Apr 07 Dragons -3.00

 

March 26, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.92 17.67 -1.70
Hurricanes 8.98 9.43 -0.40
Lions 5.10 8.28 -3.20
Chiefs 4.75 8.56 -3.80
Highlanders 3.09 4.01 -0.90
Waratahs 2.22 2.00 0.20
Sharks 0.68 0.45 0.20
Stormers 0.64 -0.39 1.00
Brumbies -1.29 0.00 -1.30
Bulls -1.31 -3.79 2.50
Jaguares -1.45 -0.26 -1.20
Blues -2.73 -3.42 0.70
Rebels -4.78 -7.26 2.50
Reds -5.27 -8.19 2.90
Sunwolves -13.56 -16.08 2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Mar 22 33 – 26 -3.60 FALSE
2 Hurricanes vs. Stormers Mar 23 34 – 28 13.20 TRUE
3 Waratahs vs. Crusaders Mar 23 20 – 12 -12.10 FALSE
4 Sunwolves vs. Lions Mar 23 24 – 37 -14.90 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Chiefs Mar 23 20 – 56 2.60 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Rebels Mar 23 28 – 14 8.80 TRUE
7 Reds vs. Brumbies Mar 24 36 – 14 -3.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Mar 29 Crusaders -3.40
2 Waratahs vs. Sunwolves Mar 29 Waratahs 19.80
3 Blues vs. Stormers Mar 30 Blues 0.60
4 Reds vs. Rebels Mar 30 Reds 3.00
5 Sharks vs. Bulls Mar 30 Sharks 5.50
6 Jaguares vs. Chiefs Mar 30 Chiefs -2.20

 

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