Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

November 28, 2018

Pro14 Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.53 9.80 2.70
Glasgow Warriors 9.87 8.55 1.30
Munster 9.34 8.08 1.30
Scarlets 5.36 6.39 -1.00
Connacht 1.88 0.01 1.90
Cardiff Blues 0.37 0.24 0.10
Ulster 0.31 2.07 -1.80
Ospreys -0.50 -0.86 0.40
Edinburgh -1.29 -0.64 -0.70
Cheetahs -2.61 -0.83 -1.80
Treviso -4.36 -5.19 0.80
Dragons -9.31 -8.59 -0.70
Southern Kings -9.44 -7.91 -1.50
Zebre -11.61 -10.57 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 82.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Scarlets vs. Ulster Nov 24 29 – 12 8.10 TRUE
2 Leinster vs. Ospreys Nov 24 52 – 7 15.50 TRUE
3 Glasgow Warriors vs. Cardiff Blues Nov 24 40 – 15 13.00 TRUE
4 Cheetahs vs. Treviso Nov 24 31 – 25 6.30 TRUE
5 Southern Kings vs. Connacht Nov 26 14 – 31 -5.80 TRUE
6 Zebre vs. Munster Nov 26 7 – 32 -15.60 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Edinburgh Nov 26 18 – 12 -4.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Munster vs. Edinburgh Dec 01 Munster 15.10
2 Ospreys vs. Zebre Dec 01 Ospreys 15.60
3 Cheetahs vs. Connacht Dec 02 Cheetahs 0.00
4 Ulster vs. Cardiff Blues Dec 02 Ulster 4.40
5 Dragons vs. Leinster Dec 02 Leinster -17.30
6 Glasgow Warriors vs. Scarlets Dec 02 Glasgow Warriors 9.00
7 Southern Kings vs. Treviso Dec 02 Treviso -0.60

 

November 20, 2018

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 11.95 11.19 0.80
Exeter Chiefs 11.68 11.13 0.50
Wasps 5.52 8.30 -2.80
Leicester Tigers 3.92 6.26 -2.30
Gloucester Rugby 3.67 1.23 2.40
Northampton Saints 3.38 3.42 -0.00
Harlequins 2.34 2.05 0.30
Bath Rugby 1.76 3.11 -1.40
Sale Sharks -0.61 -0.81 0.20
Worcester Warriors -2.49 -5.18 2.70
Newcastle Falcons -3.49 -3.51 0.00
Bristol -6.04 -5.60 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gloucester Rugby vs. Leicester Tigers Nov 16 36 – 13 3.60 TRUE
2 Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons Nov 16 20 – 7 11.00 TRUE
3 Bath Rugby vs. Worcester Warriors Nov 17 30 – 13 8.90 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Wasps Nov 17 36 – 17 1.80 TRUE
5 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks Nov 17 31 – 25 19.30 TRUE
6 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 18 29 – 31 -13.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bath Rugby Nov 23 Newcastle Falcons 0.30
2 Worcester Warriors vs. Harlequins Nov 23 Worcester Warriors 0.70
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Rugby Nov 24 Exeter Chiefs 13.50
4 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Nov 24 Sale Sharks 1.50
5 Wasps vs. Bristol Nov 24 Wasps 17.10
6 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Nov 25 Saracens -2.50

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 9

By

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.52 9.80 1.70
Glasgow Warriors 9.36 8.55 0.80
Munster 8.92 8.08 0.80
Scarlets 4.65 6.39 -1.70
Connacht 1.39 0.01 1.40
Ulster 1.02 2.07 -1.00
Cardiff Blues 0.89 0.24 0.60
Ospreys 0.51 -0.86 1.40
Edinburgh -0.82 -0.64 -0.20
Cheetahs -2.58 -0.83 -1.70
Treviso -4.39 -5.19 0.80
Southern Kings -8.95 -7.91 -1.00
Dragons -9.77 -8.59 -1.20
Zebre -11.18 -10.57 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 82.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Ospreys vs. Glasgow Warriors Nov 03 20 – 29 -3.50 TRUE
2 Edinburgh vs. Scarlets Nov 03 31 – 21 -2.00 FALSE
3 Treviso vs. Ulster Nov 04 10 – 15 -0.10 TRUE
4 Connacht vs. Dragons Nov 04 33 – 12 14.60 TRUE
5 Southern Kings vs. Leinster Nov 04 31 – 38 -16.90 TRUE
6 Cheetahs vs. Munster Nov 05 26 – 30 -7.60 TRUE
7 Cardiff Blues vs. Zebre Nov 05 37 – 0 14.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Cardiff Blues Nov 24 Glasgow Warriors 13.00
2 Leinster vs. Ospreys Nov 24 Leinster 15.50
3 Scarlets vs. Ulster Nov 24 Scarlets 8.10
4 Cheetahs vs. Treviso Nov 24 Cheetahs 6.30
5 Southern Kings vs. Connacht Nov 26 Connacht -5.80
6 Zebre vs. Munster Nov 26 Munster -15.60
7 Dragons vs. Edinburgh Nov 26 Edinburgh -4.40

 

October 23, 2018

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

By

Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 14.09 15.32 -1.20
Wellington 11.41 12.18 -0.80
Auckland 11.16 -0.50 11.70
Tasman 9.06 2.62 6.40
Waikato 6.98 -3.24 10.20
North Harbour 5.56 6.42 -0.90
Otago -0.61 0.33 -0.90
Counties Manukau -2.03 1.84 -3.90
Taranaki -4.85 6.58 -11.40
Bay of Plenty -4.95 0.27 -5.20
Hawke’s Bay -6.26 -13.00 6.70
Northland -6.51 -3.45 -3.10
Manawatu -11.83 -4.36 -7.50
Southland -23.39 -23.17 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 74 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Waikato vs. Northland Oct 19 48 – 26 16.50 TRUE
2 Tasman vs. Canterbury Oct 19 16 – 21 -0.20 TRUE
3 Auckland vs. Wellington Oct 20 38 – 17 -0.00 FALSE
4 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 20 20 – 19 11.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Waikato vs. Otago Oct 26 Waikato 11.60
2 Auckland vs. Canterbury Oct 27 Auckland 1.10

 

Currie Cup Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

By

Team Ratings for the Currie Cup Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team.


Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 8.16 4.66 3.50
Sharks 4.52 4.18 0.30
Lions 2.56 3.23 -0.70
Cheetahs 2.23 3.86 -1.60
Blue Bulls 0.18 0.94 -0.80
Pumas -8.17 -8.36 0.20
Griquas -11.05 -9.78 -1.30
Cheetahs2 -29.69 -30.00 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 23 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 87%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.


Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Lions Oct 20 33 – 24 6.00 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Blue Bulls Oct 20 35 – 32 13.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

Here are the predictions for the Currie Cup Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.


Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Sharks Oct 27 Western Province 8.10

 

October 18, 2018

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 12.58 11.19 1.40
Exeter Chiefs 12.24 11.13 1.10
Wasps 6.28 8.30 -2.00
Leicester Tigers 4.75 6.26 -1.50
Gloucester Rugby 2.83 1.23 1.60
Northampton Saints 2.62 3.42 -0.80
Harlequins 2.16 2.05 0.10
Bath Rugby 1.32 3.11 -1.80
Sale Sharks -1.24 -0.81 -0.40
Worcester Warriors -2.05 -5.18 3.10
Newcastle Falcons -3.30 -3.51 0.20
Bristol -6.60 -5.60 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath Rugby vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 05 24 – 39 -4.40 TRUE
2 Wasps vs. Gloucester Rugby Oct 06 21 – 35 11.00 FALSE
3 Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 06 20 – 7 6.40 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 06 15 – 23 4.60 FALSE
5 Harlequins vs. Saracens Oct 06 20 – 25 -4.90 TRUE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Bristol Oct 07 52 – 7 7.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester Rugby vs. Leicester Tigers Nov 16 Gloucester Rugby 3.60
2 Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons Nov 16 Harlequins 11.00
3 Bath Rugby vs. Worcester Warriors Nov 17 Bath Rugby 8.90
4 Northampton Saints vs. Wasps Nov 17 Northampton Saints 1.80
5 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks Nov 17 Saracens 19.30
6 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 18 Exeter Chiefs -13.30

 

October 16, 2018

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

By

Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 13.65 15.32 -1.70
Wellington 13.30 12.18 1.10
Tasman 9.50 2.62 6.90
Auckland 9.27 -0.50 9.80
Waikato 6.49 -3.24 9.70
North Harbour 5.56 6.42 -0.90
Otago 0.34 0.33 0.00
Counties Manukau -2.03 1.84 -3.90
Taranaki -4.85 6.58 -11.40
Bay of Plenty -4.95 0.27 -5.20
Northland -6.02 -3.45 -2.60
Hawke’s Bay -7.21 -13.00 5.80
Manawatu -11.83 -4.36 -7.50
Southland -23.39 -23.17 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southland vs. Auckland Oct 10 8 – 56 -23.80 TRUE
2 Tasman vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 11 29 – 0 18.90 TRUE
3 Taranaki vs. Wellington Oct 12 10 – 34 -12.00 TRUE
4 Bay of Plenty vs. Northland Oct 13 38 – 35 5.50 TRUE
5 Waikato vs. Otago Oct 13 19 – 23 13.30 FALSE
6 Counties Manukau vs. Canterbury Oct 13 14 – 19 -13.10 TRUE
7 Auckland vs. North Harbour Oct 14 45 – 29 3.70 TRUE
8 Manawatu vs. Southland Oct 14 38 – 26 14.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Waikato vs. Northland Oct 19 Waikato 16.50
2 Tasman vs. Canterbury Oct 19 Canterbury -0.20
3 Auckland vs. Wellington Oct 20 Wellington -0.00
4 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 20 Otago 11.50

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for the SemiFinals

By

Team Ratings for the SemiFinals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team.


Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 8.57 4.66 3.90
Sharks 4.28 4.18 0.10
Lions 2.80 3.23 -0.40
Cheetahs 2.23 3.86 -1.60
Blue Bulls -0.22 0.94 -1.20
Pumas -8.17 -8.36 0.20
Griquas -11.05 -9.78 -1.30
Cheetahs2 -29.69 -30.00 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.


Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Lions Oct 12 21 – 33 -5.40 TRUE
2 Griquas vs. Sharks Oct 13 11 – 41 -9.50 TRUE
3 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Oct 13 7 – 34 -2.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the SemiFinals

Here are the predictions for the SemiFinals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.


Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Lions Oct 20 Sharks 6.00
2 Western Province vs. Blue Bulls Oct 20 Western Province 13.30

 

October 9, 2018

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 9

By

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 14.38 15.32 -0.90
Wellington 12.22 12.18 0.00
Tasman 8.59 2.62 6.00
Waikato 8.04 -3.24 11.30
North Harbour 6.47 6.42 0.10
Auckland 6.18 -0.50 6.70
Otago -1.22 0.33 -1.50
Counties Manukau -2.77 1.84 -4.60
Taranaki -3.77 6.58 -10.30
Bay of Plenty -4.72 0.27 -5.00
Northland -6.24 -3.45 -2.80
Hawke’s Bay -6.30 -13.00 6.70
Manawatu -11.44 -4.36 -7.10
Southland -21.60 -23.17 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 62 matches played, 43 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 03 45 – 34 8.30 TRUE
2 Wellington vs. Auckland Oct 04 24 – 29 13.30 FALSE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Manawatu Oct 05 45 – 17 5.00 TRUE
4 Northland vs. Waikato Oct 06 28 – 71 -3.10 TRUE
5 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Oct 06 36 – 26 14.00 TRUE
6 Canterbury vs. Taranaki Oct 06 41 – 7 19.50 TRUE
7 Southland vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 07 22 – 26 -15.10 TRUE
8 Otago vs. Tasman Oct 07 21 – 47 -1.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Southland vs. Auckland Oct 10 Auckland -23.80
2 Tasman vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 11 Tasman 18.90
3 Taranaki vs. Wellington Oct 12 Wellington -12.00
4 Bay of Plenty vs. Northland Oct 13 Bay of Plenty 5.50
5 Waikato vs. Otago Oct 13 Waikato 13.30
6 Counties Manukau vs. Canterbury Oct 13 Canterbury -13.10
7 Auckland vs. North Harbour Oct 14 Auckland 3.70
8 Manawatu vs. Southland Oct 14 Manawatu 14.20

 

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October 2, 2018

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 13.87 12.18 1.70
Canterbury 13.08 15.32 -2.20
North Harbour 6.83 6.42 0.40
Tasman 6.37 2.62 3.80
Auckland 4.53 -0.50 5.00
Waikato 4.45 -3.24 7.70
Otago 0.75 0.33 0.40
Taranaki -2.47 6.58 -9.00
Northland -2.65 -3.45 0.80
Counties Manukau -3.12 1.84 -5.00
Bay of Plenty -3.50 0.27 -3.80
Hawke’s Bay -8.37 -13.00 4.60
Manawatu -9.37 -4.36 -5.00
Southland -22.57 -23.17 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Sep 26 55 – 41 -4.20 FALSE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Sep 27 15 – 17 12.50 FALSE
3 Auckland vs. Otago Sep 28 26 – 31 10.60 FALSE
4 Waikato vs. Southland Sep 29 42 – 11 31.00 TRUE
5 Taranaki vs. North Harbour Sep 29 26 – 55 -0.10 TRUE
6 Wellington vs. Tasman Sep 29 22 – 28 15.30 FALSE
7 Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 30 49 – 24 27.20 TRUE
8 Counties Manukau vs. Northland Sep 30 20 – 24 3.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 03 Otago 8.30
2 Wellington vs. Auckland Oct 04 Wellington 13.30
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Manawatu Oct 05 Hawke’s Bay 5.00
4 Northland vs. Waikato Oct 06 Waikato -3.10
5 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Oct 06 North Harbour 14.00
6 Canterbury vs. Taranaki Oct 06 Canterbury 19.50
7 Southland vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 07 Bay of Plenty -15.10
8 Otago vs. Tasman Oct 07 Tasman -1.60

 

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