Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

September 26, 2017

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 19.36 14.78 4.60
Wellington 10.36 -1.62 12.00
Taranaki 7.63 7.04 0.60
North Harbour 5.30 -1.27 6.60
Tasman 4.84 9.54 -4.70
Otago 3.81 -0.34 4.20
Counties Manukau -0.79 5.70 -6.50
Manawatu -1.32 -3.59 2.30
Bay of Plenty -1.63 -3.98 2.30
Auckland -2.13 6.11 -8.20
Waikato -4.08 -0.26 -3.80
Northland -5.07 -12.37 7.30
Hawke’s Bay -14.93 -5.85 -9.10
Southland -23.97 -16.50 -7.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Sep 20 57 – 0 20.00 TRUE
2 Otago vs. Auckland Sep 21 34 – 26 10.40 TRUE
3 Manawatu vs. Northland Sep 22 39 – 25 6.40 TRUE
4 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 23 28 – 41 -9.40 TRUE
5 Waikato vs. Wellington Sep 23 10 – 34 -7.50 TRUE
6 Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki Sep 23 17 – 48 -15.80 TRUE
7 Bay of Plenty vs. Counties Manukau Sep 24 31 – 31 0.50 FALSE
8 Tasman vs. Southland Sep 24 50 – 17 29.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northland vs. Otago Sep 27 Otago -4.90
2 Taranaki vs. Tasman Sep 28 Taranaki 6.80
3 North Harbour vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 29 North Harbour 24.20
4 Southland vs. Manawatu Sep 30 Manawatu -18.60
5 Auckland vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 30 Auckland 3.50
6 Canterbury vs. Waikato Sep 30 Canterbury 27.40
7 Wellington vs. Otago Oct 01 Wellington 10.50
8 Counties Manukau vs. Northland Oct 01 Counties Manukau 8.30

 

NRL Predictions for the Grand Final

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Team Ratings for the Grand Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 15.88 8.49 7.40
Broncos 5.08 4.36 0.70
Cowboys 4.71 6.90 -2.20
Raiders 4.07 9.94 -5.90
Panthers 2.80 6.08 -3.30
Sharks 2.55 5.84 -3.30
Eels 1.60 -0.81 2.40
Roosters 0.21 -1.17 1.40
Dragons -0.94 -7.74 6.80
Sea Eagles -1.11 -2.98 1.90
Bulldogs -3.55 -1.34 -2.20
Wests Tigers -3.72 -3.89 0.20
Rabbitohs -3.84 -1.82 -2.00
Warriors -7.23 -6.02 -1.20
Titans -9.03 -0.98 -8.10
Knights -9.54 -16.94 7.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 200 matches played, 120 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Broncos Sep 22 30 – 0 11.40 TRUE
2 Roosters vs. Cowboys Sep 23 16 – 29 1.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Grand Final

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Cowboys Oct 01 Storm 11.20

 

September 19, 2017

NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

By

Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.43 8.49 5.90
Broncos 6.53 4.36 2.20
Raiders 4.07 9.94 -5.90
Cowboys 3.58 6.90 -3.30
Panthers 2.80 6.08 -3.30
Sharks 2.55 5.84 -3.30
Eels 1.60 -0.81 2.40
Roosters 1.34 -1.17 2.50
Dragons -0.94 -7.74 6.80
Sea Eagles -1.11 -2.98 1.90
Bulldogs -3.55 -1.34 -2.20
Wests Tigers -3.72 -3.89 0.20
Rabbitohs -3.84 -1.82 -2.00
Warriors -7.23 -6.02 -1.20
Titans -9.03 -0.98 -8.10
Knights -9.54 -16.94 7.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 198 matches played, 119 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Panthers Sep 15 13 – 6 7.30 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Cowboys Sep 16 16 – 24 3.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Broncos Sep 22 Storm 11.40
2 Roosters vs. Cowboys Sep 23 Roosters 1.30

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 19.04 14.78 4.30
Wellington 8.87 -1.62 10.50
Taranaki 6.27 7.04 -0.80
North Harbour 5.62 -1.27 6.90
Tasman 4.82 9.54 -4.70
Otago 4.03 -0.34 4.40
Counties Manukau -1.13 5.70 -6.80
Manawatu -2.01 -3.59 1.60
Auckland -2.34 6.11 -8.40
Waikato -2.59 -0.26 -2.30
Northland -4.38 -12.37 8.00
Bay of Plenty -4.61 -3.98 -0.60
Hawke’s Bay -13.56 -5.85 -7.70
Southland -20.62 -16.50 -4.10

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau Sep 13 78 – 5 20.80 TRUE
2 Northland vs. North Harbour Sep 14 22 – 31 -5.40 TRUE
3 Southland vs. Auckland Sep 15 17 – 27 -15.20 TRUE
4 Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 15 29 – 7 13.30 TRUE
5 Waikato vs. Manawatu Sep 16 10 – 23 7.00 FALSE
6 Otago vs. Tasman Sep 16 27 – 29 4.40 FALSE
7 Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 17 33 – 14 20.60 TRUE
8 Wellington vs. Canterbury Sep 17 60 – 14 -12.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Sep 20 Bay of Plenty 20.00
2 Otago vs. Auckland Sep 21 Otago 10.40
3 Manawatu vs. Northland Sep 22 Manawatu 6.40
4 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 23 Canterbury -9.40
5 Waikato vs. Wellington Sep 23 Wellington -7.50
6 Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki Sep 23 Taranaki -15.80
7 Bay of Plenty vs. Counties Manukau Sep 24 Bay of Plenty 0.50
8 Tasman vs. Southland Sep 24 Tasman 29.40

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 11

By

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 4.99 2.15 2.80
Western Province 3.46 3.30 0.20
Cheetahs 3.23 4.33 -1.10
Lions 3.02 7.41 -4.40
Blue Bulls 0.47 2.32 -1.90
Pumas -7.01 -10.63 3.60
Griquas -10.91 -11.62 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Western Province Sep 15 22 – 12 -7.10 FALSE
2 Griquas vs. Sharks Sep 16 22 – 40 -10.10 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Blue Bulls Sep 16 36 – 33 7.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Blue Bulls Sep 23 Sharks 9.00
2 Western Province vs. Griquas Sep 23 Western Province 18.90
3 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Sep 23 Cheetahs 14.70

 

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September 12, 2017

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 2

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.43 8.49 5.90
Broncos 6.56 4.36 2.20
Raiders 4.07 9.94 -5.90
Panthers 2.77 6.08 -3.30
Cowboys 2.68 6.90 -4.20
Sharks 2.55 5.84 -3.30
Eels 2.51 -0.81 3.30
Roosters 1.34 -1.17 2.50
Dragons -0.94 -7.74 6.80
Sea Eagles -1.11 -2.98 1.90
Bulldogs -3.55 -1.34 -2.20
Wests Tigers -3.72 -3.89 0.20
Rabbitohs -3.84 -1.82 -2.00
Warriors -7.23 -6.02 -1.20
Titans -9.03 -0.98 -8.10
Knights -9.54 -16.94 7.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 196 matches played, 118 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Broncos Sep 08 24 – 22 -2.50 FALSE
2 Storm vs. Eels Sep 09 18 – 16 17.90 TRUE
3 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Sep 09 10 – 22 -2.30 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Cowboys Sep 10 14 – 15 4.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 2

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Panthers Sep 15 Broncos 7.30
2 Eels vs. Cowboys Sep 16 Eels 3.30

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 20.07 14.78 5.30
Taranaki 5.49 7.04 -1.50
North Harbour 5.30 -1.27 6.60
Otago 4.60 -0.34 4.90
Tasman 4.24 9.54 -5.30
Counties Manukau 3.29 5.70 -2.40
Wellington 3.14 -1.62 4.80
Waikato -0.79 -0.26 -0.50
Auckland -1.87 6.11 -8.00
Manawatu -3.81 -3.59 -0.20
Bay of Plenty -3.83 -3.98 0.10
Northland -4.06 -12.37 8.30
Hawke’s Bay -13.28 -5.85 -7.40
Southland -21.09 -16.50 -4.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 06 40 – 27 17.70 TRUE
2 Counties Manukau vs. North Harbour Sep 07 18 – 27 4.40 FALSE
3 Canterbury vs. Southland Sep 08 78 – 20 42.30 TRUE
4 Manawatu vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 08 17 – 20 5.60 FALSE
5 Auckland vs. Taranaki Sep 09 38 – 49 -1.70 TRUE
6 Northland vs. Waikato Sep 09 37 – 7 -5.70 FALSE
7 Tasman vs. Wellington Sep 10 37 – 35 5.40 TRUE
8 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Sep 10 21 – 64 -7.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau Sep 13 Canterbury 20.80
2 Northland vs. North Harbour Sep 14 North Harbour -5.40
3 Southland vs. Auckland Sep 15 Auckland -15.20
4 Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 15 Taranaki 13.30
5 Waikato vs. Manawatu Sep 16 Waikato 7.00
6 Otago vs. Tasman Sep 16 Otago 4.40
7 Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 17 Counties Manukau 20.60
8 Wellington vs. Canterbury Sep 17 Canterbury -12.90

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 4.36 2.15 2.20
Western Province 4.04 3.30 0.70
Lions 3.41 7.41 -4.00
Cheetahs 3.23 4.33 -1.10
Blue Bulls 0.09 2.32 -2.20
Pumas -7.60 -10.63 3.00
Griquas -10.29 -11.62 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 27 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Lions Sep 08 17 – 34 -8.50 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Sep 09 57 – 14 3.20 TRUE
3 Pumas vs. Sharks Sep 09 25 – 27 -8.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Western Province Sep 15 Western Province -7.10
2 Griquas vs. Sharks Sep 16 Sharks -10.10
3 Lions vs. Blue Bulls Sep 16 Lions 7.80

 

September 5, 2017

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

By

Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 15.68 8.49 7.20
Broncos 6.96 4.36 2.60
Raiders 4.07 9.94 -5.90
Sharks 2.98 5.84 -2.90
Cowboys 2.25 6.90 -4.70
Panthers 2.00 6.08 -4.10
Eels 1.26 -0.81 2.10
Roosters 0.93 -1.17 2.10
Sea Eagles -0.33 -2.98 2.60
Dragons -0.94 -7.74 6.80
Bulldogs -3.55 -1.34 -2.20
Wests Tigers -3.72 -3.89 0.20
Rabbitohs -3.84 -1.82 -2.00
Warriors -7.23 -6.02 -1.20
Titans -9.03 -0.98 -8.10
Knights -9.54 -16.94 7.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 192 matches played, 116 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 31 10 – 20 0.50 FALSE
2 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Sep 01 22 – 16 9.20 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Titans Sep 02 20 – 16 15.20 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Sep 02 28 – 12 -1.60 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Raiders Sep 02 32 – 6 13.10 TRUE
6 Knights vs. Sharks Sep 03 0 – 18 -7.30 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Sep 03 20 – 26 8.40 FALSE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Sep 03 28 – 16 6.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Broncos Sep 08 Broncos -2.50
2 Storm vs. Eels Sep 09 Storm 17.90
3 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Sep 09 Panthers -2.30
4 Sharks vs. Cowboys Sep 10 Sharks 4.20

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 4.88 2.15 2.70
Cheetahs 4.29 4.33 -0.00
Lions 3.05 7.41 -4.40
Western Province 2.99 3.30 -0.30
Blue Bulls 0.09 2.32 -2.20
Pumas -8.12 -10.63 2.50
Griquas -9.93 -11.62 1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blue Bulls vs. Griquas Sep 01 44 – 42 15.50 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Sep 02 45 – 15 3.50 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Pumas Sep 02 29 – 28 16.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Lions Sep 08 Lions -8.50
2 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Sep 09 Western Province 3.20
3 Pumas vs. Sharks Sep 09 Sharks -8.50

 

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