Posts written by David Scott (1773)

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

July 17, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 20

By

Team Ratings for Round 20

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 20, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulldogs 7.09 -1.86 9.00
Warriors 4.96 5.28 -0.30
Storm 4.22 4.63 -0.40
Broncos 3.91 5.57 -1.70
Rabbitohs 3.00 0.04 3.00
Sea Eagles 2.96 9.83 -6.90
Cowboys 2.90 -1.32 4.20
Wests Tigers 0.21 4.52 -4.30
Sharks -1.05 -7.97 6.90
Knights -1.92 0.77 -2.70
Dragons -2.08 4.36 -6.40
Titans -2.36 -11.80 9.40
Roosters -4.40 0.25 -4.70
Raiders -5.02 -8.40 3.40
Panthers -7.73 -3.40 -4.30
Eels -8.41 -4.23 -4.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.56%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Eels Jul 13 32 – 12 20.00 TRUE
2 Broncos vs. Warriors Jul 13 10 – 8 3.73 TRUE
3 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Jul 14 32 – 6 -5.40 FALSE
4 Storm vs. Cowboys Jul 14 16 – 20 7.69 FALSE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jul 14 26 – 18 13.29 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Titans Jul 15 26 – 38 4.48 FALSE
7 Dragons vs. Sharks Jul 15 18 – 10 2.60 TRUE
8 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Jul 16 22 – 24 -3.07 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Jul 20 Sea Eagles 0.40
2 Titans vs. Broncos Jul 20 Broncos -1.80
3 Warriors vs. Knights Jul 21 Warriors 11.40
4 Eels vs. Storm Jul 21 Storm -8.10
5 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Jul 21 Rabbitohs 9.60
6 Sharks vs. Raiders Jul 22 Sharks 8.50
7 Panthers vs. Roosters Jul 22 Panthers 1.20
8 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers Jul 23 Cowboys 7.20

 

Super 15 Predictions, Week 22

By

Team Ratings for Week 22

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 22, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.02 10.46 -1.40
Sharks 4.77 0.87 3.90
Stormers 4.55 6.59 -2.00
Hurricanes 3.40 -1.90 5.30
Bulls 3.32 4.16 -0.80
Chiefs 3.09 -1.17 4.30
Reds 1.55 5.03 -3.50
Brumbies -0.89 -6.66 5.80
Blues -2.77 2.87 -5.60
Waratahs -3.13 4.98 -8.10
Highlanders -3.17 -5.69 2.50
Cheetahs -3.99 -1.46 -2.50
Lions -8.75 -10.82 2.10
Force -9.18 -4.95 -4.20
Rebels -11.11 -15.64 4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 86 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Jul 13 28 – 25 5.20 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Blues Jul 14 16 – 30 10.30 FALSE
3 Crusaders vs. Force Jul 14 38 – 24 24.40 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Waratahs Jul 14 32 – 16 7.90 TRUE
5 Stormers vs. Rebels Jul 14 26 – 21 23.10 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Jul 14 34 – 15 12.20 TRUE
7 Bulls vs. Lions Jul 14 37 – 20 16.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 22

Here are the predictions for Week 22. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Bulls Jul 21 Crusaders 10.20
2 Reds vs. Sharks Jul 21 Reds 1.30

 

July 11, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 19

By

Team Ratings for Round 19

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 19, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulldogs 7.08 -1.86 8.90
Sea Eagles 5.47 9.83 -4.40
Storm 5.16 4.63 0.50
Warriors 4.82 5.28 -0.50
Broncos 4.04 5.57 -1.50
Rabbitohs 3.09 0.04 3.00
Cowboys 1.96 -1.32 3.30
Wests Tigers 0.63 4.52 -3.90
Sharks -0.61 -7.97 7.40
Dragons -2.51 4.36 -6.90
Titans -3.68 -11.80 8.10
Raiders -3.70 -8.40 4.70
Knights -4.44 0.77 -5.20
Roosters -4.48 0.25 -4.70
Panthers -8.16 -3.40 -4.80
Eels -8.41 -4.23 -4.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 76 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.38%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs Jul 06 20 – 32 -0.04 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Raiders Jul 07 12 – 40 21.23 FALSE
3 Titans vs. Warriors Jul 07 14 – 32 -1.34 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Jul 08 34 – 14 10.50 TRUE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Jul 08 40 – 24 18.84 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Roosters Jul 09 14 – 14 9.96 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Eels Jul 13 Bulldogs 20.00
2 Broncos vs. Warriors Jul 13 Broncos 3.70
3 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Jul 14 Sea Eagles -5.40
4 Storm vs. Cowboys Jul 14 Storm 7.70
5 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jul 14 Wests Tigers 13.30
6 Raiders vs. Titans Jul 15 Raiders 4.50
7 Dragons vs. Sharks Jul 15 Dragons 2.60
8 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Jul 16 Rabbitohs -3.10

 

Super 15 Predictions, Week 21

By

Team Ratings for Week 21

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 21, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.85 10.46 -0.60
Stormers 5.99 6.59 -0.60
Sharks 4.23 0.87 3.40
Hurricanes 3.57 -1.90 5.50
Bulls 3.28 4.16 -0.90
Chiefs 2.91 -1.17 4.10
Brumbies 1.05 -6.66 7.70
Reds 0.90 5.03 -4.10
Waratahs -2.49 4.98 -7.50
Highlanders -3.17 -5.69 2.50
Cheetahs -3.44 -1.46 -2.00
Blues -4.71 2.87 -7.60
Lions -8.71 -10.82 2.10
Force -10.01 -4.95 -5.10
Rebels -12.56 -15.64 3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 113 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jul 06 21 – 28 -1.60 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Highlanders Jul 06 19 – 13 9.10 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Bulls Jul 06 32 – 10 2.30 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Force Jul 07 32 – 9 7.30 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Jul 07 15 – 19 1.90 FALSE
6 Cheetahs vs. Stormers Jul 07 6 – 13 -4.50 TRUE
7 Lions vs. Rebels Jul 07 37 – 32 9.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 21

Here are the predictions for Week 21. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Jul 13 Hurricanes 5.20
2 Brumbies vs. Blues Jul 14 Brumbies 10.30
3 Crusaders vs. Force Jul 14 Crusaders 24.40
4 Reds vs. Waratahs Jul 14 Reds 7.90
5 Stormers vs. Rebels Jul 14 Stormers 23.10
6 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Jul 14 Sharks 12.20
7 Bulls vs. Lions Jul 14 Bulls 16.50

 

July 4, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 18

By

Team Ratings for Round 18

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 18, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.09 4.63 4.50
Bulldogs 6.13 -1.86 8.00
Sea Eagles 5.70 9.83 -4.10
Broncos 4.04 5.57 -1.50
Warriors 3.49 5.28 -1.80
Rabbitohs 2.33 0.04 2.30
Cowboys 1.96 -1.32 3.30
Wests Tigers 1.59 4.52 -2.90
Sharks 0.18 -7.97 8.20
Titans -2.35 -11.80 9.50
Dragons -2.51 4.36 -6.90
Knights -3.68 0.77 -4.50
Roosters -5.28 0.25 -5.50
Raiders -7.64 -8.40 0.80
Panthers -8.16 -3.40 -4.80
Eels -8.64 -4.23 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 122 matches played, 72 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.02%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Sharks Jun 29 12 – 26 12.62 FALSE
2 Eels vs. Knights Jun 30 12 – 20 0.97 FALSE
3 Warriors vs. Cowboys Jul 01 35 – 18 3.93 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Jul 01 38 – 12 12.89 TRUE
5 Raiders vs. Dragons Jul 02 22 – 18 -1.51 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs Jul 06 Bulldogs -0.00
2 Storm vs. Raiders Jul 07 Storm 21.20
3 Titans vs. Warriors Jul 07 Warriors -1.30
4 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Jul 08 Rabbitohs 10.50
5 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Jul 08 Sea Eagles 18.80
6 Sharks vs. Roosters Jul 09 Sharks 10.00

 

Super 15 Predictions, Week 20

By

Team Ratings for Week 20

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 20, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.42 10.46 -1.00
Stormers 5.80 6.59 -0.80
Bulls 4.85 4.16 0.70
Hurricanes 3.57 -1.90 5.50
Chiefs 3.35 -1.17 4.50
Sharks 2.65 0.87 1.80
Reds 1.14 5.03 -3.90
Brumbies 0.57 -6.66 7.20
Waratahs -2.01 4.98 -7.00
Cheetahs -3.24 -1.46 -1.80
Highlanders -3.41 -5.69 2.30
Blues -5.97 2.87 -8.80
Lions -8.39 -10.82 2.40
Force -8.76 -4.95 -3.80
Rebels -12.88 -15.64 2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 106 matches played, 74 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.8%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Jun 29 21 – 27 -1.50 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Reds Jun 29 17 – 31 -8.70 TRUE
3 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Jun 30 22 – 23 12.50 FALSE
4 Force vs. Brumbies Jun 30 17 – 28 -3.70 TRUE
5 Stormers vs. Lions Jun 30 27 – 17 20.30 TRUE
6 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Jun 30 40 – 24 11.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 20

Here are the predictions for Week 20. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jul 06 Crusaders -1.60
2 Reds vs. Highlanders Jul 06 Reds 9.10
3 Blues vs. Force Jul 07 Blues 7.30
4 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Jul 07 Waratahs 1.90
5 Cheetahs vs. Stormers Jul 07 Stormers -4.50
6 Lions vs. Rebels Jul 07 Lions 9.00
7 Sharks vs. Bulls Jul 07 Sharks 2.30

 

View comments (1)
June 28, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 17

By

Team Ratings for Round 17

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 17, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.09 4.63 4.50
Broncos 6.17 5.57 0.60
Bulldogs 6.13 -1.86 8.00
Sea Eagles 5.70 9.83 -4.10
Cowboys 3.01 -1.32 4.30
Warriors 2.44 5.28 -2.80
Wests Tigers 1.59 4.52 -2.90
Rabbitohs 1.28 0.04 1.20
Sharks -1.95 -7.97 6.00
Dragons -2.07 4.36 -6.40
Titans -2.35 -11.80 9.50
Knights -4.39 0.77 -5.20
Roosters -5.28 0.25 -5.50
Panthers -7.11 -3.40 -3.70
Eels -7.92 -4.23 -3.70
Raiders -8.08 -8.40 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 117 matches played, 70 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.83%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Titans Jun 22 8 – 6 5.31 TRUE
2 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Jun 23 26 – 12 8.52 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Raiders Jun 23 40 – 18 14.36 TRUE
4 Panthers vs. Eels Jun 23 18 – 19 6.52 FALSE
5 Bulldogs vs. Storm Jun 24 20 – 4 -6.58 FALSE
6 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Jun 24 14 – 52 -0.47 TRUE
7 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Jun 25 38 – 20 -5.19 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Sharks Jun 29 Broncos 12.60
2 Eels vs. Knights Jun 30 Eels 1.00
3 Warriors vs. Cowboys Jul 01 Warriors 3.90
4 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Jul 01 Rabbitohs 12.90
5 Raiders vs. Dragons Jul 02 Dragons -1.50

 

Super 15 Predictions, Week 19

By

Team Ratings for Week 19

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 19, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 10.50 10.46 0.00
Stormers 6.62 6.59 0.00
Bulls 4.53 4.16 0.40
Chiefs 2.99 -1.17 4.20
Sharks 2.65 0.87 1.80
Hurricanes 2.49 -1.90 4.40
Reds 0.72 5.03 -4.30
Brumbies -0.01 -6.66 6.60
Waratahs -2.01 4.98 -7.00
Cheetahs -2.92 -1.46 -1.50
Highlanders -3.06 -5.69 2.60
Blues -5.97 2.87 -8.80
Force -8.17 -4.95 -3.20
Lions -9.21 -10.82 1.60
Rebels -12.45 -15.64 3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 100 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Jun 01 51 – 18 15.20 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Jun 01 19 – 27 -7.90 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Chiefs Jun 02 34 – 41 -4.00 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Hurricanes Jun 02 12 – 33 4.00 FALSE
5 Lions vs. Sharks Jun 02 38 – 28 -10.70 FALSE
6 Bulls vs. Stormers Jun 02 14 – 19 3.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 19

Here are the predictions for Week 19. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Jun 29 Chiefs -1.50
2 Rebels vs. Reds Jun 29 Reds -8.70
3 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Jun 30 Crusaders 12.50
4 Force vs. Brumbies Jun 30 Brumbies -3.70
5 Stormers vs. Lions Jun 30 Stormers 20.30
6 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Jun 30 Bulls 11.90

 
 

June 22, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 16

By

Team Ratings for Round 16

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 16, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.90 4.63 6.30
Broncos 5.74 5.57 0.20
Bulldogs 4.32 -1.86 6.20
Wests Tigers 3.44 4.52 -1.10
Sea Eagles 2.69 9.83 -7.10
Warriors 2.44 5.28 -2.80
Cowboys 2.40 -1.32 3.70
Rabbitohs 1.72 0.04 1.70
Dragons -1.81 4.36 -6.20
Sharks -1.95 -7.97 6.00
Roosters -2.28 0.25 -2.50
Titans -2.62 -11.80 9.20
Knights -6.25 0.77 -7.00
Panthers -6.51 -3.40 -3.10
Raiders -7.47 -8.40 0.90
Eels -8.53 -4.23 -4.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 110 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Jun 15 20 – 28 -0.41 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Broncos Jun 15 12 – 0 -0.90 FALSE
3 Sharks vs. Warriors Jun 16 20 – 19 -0.06 FALSE
4 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Jun 16 6 – 24 -8.76 TRUE
5 Titans vs. Panthers Jun 17 36 – 18 6.56 TRUE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Jun 17 28 – 42 14.83 FALSE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Jun 18 22 – 26 -3.65 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Titans Jun 22 Dragons 5.30
2 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Jun 22 Broncos 8.50
3 Cowboys vs. Raiders Jun 23 Cowboys 14.40
4 Panthers vs. Eels Jun 23 Panthers 6.50
5 Bulldogs vs. Storm Jun 24 Storm -6.60
6 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Jun 24 Sea Eagles -0.50
7 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Jun 25 Wests Tigers -5.20

 

 

June 14, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 15

By

Team Ratings for Round 15

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 15, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.87 4.63 6.20
Broncos 6.75 5.57 1.20
Wests Tigers 5.77 4.52 1.30
Bulldogs 3.70 -1.86 5.60
Sea Eagles 2.70 9.83 -7.10
Warriors 2.51 5.28 -2.80
Cowboys 1.58 -1.32 2.90
Rabbitohs 1.00 0.04 1.00
Dragons -1.20 4.36 -5.60
Sharks -2.03 -7.97 5.90
Titans -3.51 -11.80 8.30
Roosters -4.80 0.25 -5.10
Panthers -5.58 -3.40 -2.20
Knights -6.25 0.77 -7.00
Raiders -7.46 -8.40 0.90
Eels -7.79 -4.23 -3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 103 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.22%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Wests Tigers Jun 08 6 – 10 12.20 FALSE
2 Knights vs. Raiders Jun 09 16 – 32 9.85 FALSE
3 Sharks vs. Titans Jun 10 22 – 12 5.22 TRUE
4 Roosters vs. Broncos Jun 10 22 – 40 -4.97 TRUE
5 Panthers vs. Warriors Jun 11 16 – 30 -1.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Jun 15 Bulldogs -0.40
2 Cowboys vs. Broncos Jun 15 Broncos -0.70
3 Sharks vs. Warriors Jun 16 Warriors -0.00
4 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Jun 16 Rabbitohs -8.80
5 Titans vs. Panthers Jun 17 Titans 6.60
6 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Jun 17 Wests Tigers 15.10
7 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Jun 18 Storm -3.70

 

« Later posts
Earlier posts »