Posts written by David Scott (1773)

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

June 8, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 14

By

Team Ratings for Round 14

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 14, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 12.17 4.63 7.50
Broncos 5.71 5.57 0.10
Wests Tigers 4.47 4.52 -0.00
Bulldogs 3.70 -1.86 5.60
Sea Eagles 2.70 9.83 -7.10
Cowboys 1.58 -1.32 2.90
Warriors 1.51 5.28 -3.80
Rabbitohs 1.00 0.04 1.00
Dragons -1.20 4.36 -5.60
Sharks -2.41 -7.97 5.60
Titans -3.13 -11.80 8.70
Roosters -3.76 0.25 -4.00
Knights -4.18 0.77 -5.00
Panthers -4.58 -3.40 -1.20
Eels -7.79 -4.23 -3.60
Raiders -9.53 -8.40 -1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 98 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.18%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Titans vs. Cowboys Jun 01 28 – 12 -3.30 FALSE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Dragons Jun 01 20 – 8 7.72 TRUE
3 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Jun 02 0 – 40 -3.69 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Jun 02 23 – 18 7.62 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Storm Jun 03 12 – 22 -5.42 TRUE
6 Broncos vs. Knights Jun 03 50 – 24 12.18 TRUE
7 Eels vs. Sharks Jun 04 29 – 20 -2.76 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Wests Tigers Jun 08 Storm 12.20
2 Knights vs. Raiders Jun 09 Knights 9.90
3 Sharks vs. Titans Jun 10 Sharks 5.20
4 Roosters vs. Broncos Jun 10 Broncos -5.00
5 Panthers vs. Warriors Jun 11 Warriors -1.60

 

 

May 30, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 13

By

Team Ratings for Round 13

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 13, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.80 4.63 7.20
Broncos 4.60 5.57 -1.00
Bulldogs 3.91 -1.86 5.80
Cowboys 3.12 -1.32 4.40
Sea Eagles 2.36 9.83 -7.50
Warriors 1.88 5.28 -3.40
Wests Tigers 1.57 4.52 -2.90
Rabbitohs 0.79 0.04 0.70
Dragons -0.86 4.36 -5.20
Sharks -1.47 -7.97 6.50
Knights -3.08 0.77 -3.90
Roosters -3.76 0.25 -4.00
Panthers -4.58 -3.40 -1.20
Titans -4.67 -11.80 7.10
Raiders -6.63 -8.40 1.80
Eels -8.73 -4.23 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 91 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.24%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Broncos May 25 34 – 10 9.36 TRUE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders May 25 36 – 18 10.75 TRUE
3 Knights vs. Titans May 26 14 – 24 9.16 FALSE
4 Dragons vs. Eels May 26 14 – 12 14.35 TRUE
5 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles May 27 22 – 4 -6.34 FALSE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys May 27 26 – 18 1.98 TRUE
7 Roosters vs. Bulldogs May 28 12 – 30 -0.34 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Titans vs. Cowboys Jun 01 Cowboys -3.30
2 Sea Eagles vs. Dragons Jun 01 Sea Eagles 7.70
3 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Jun 02 Wests Tigers -3.70
4 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Jun 02 Bulldogs 7.60
5 Warriors vs. Storm Jun 03 Storm -5.40
6 Broncos vs. Knights Jun 03 Broncos 12.20
7 Eels vs. Sharks Jun 04 Sharks -2.80

 

Super 15 Predictions, Week 15

By

Team Ratings for Week 15

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 15, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.08 10.46 -1.40
Stormers 5.92 6.59 -0.70
Bulls 5.23 4.16 1.10
Sharks 4.30 0.87 3.40
Chiefs 2.75 -1.17 3.90
Reds 0.72 5.03 -4.30
Hurricanes 0.49 -1.90 2.40
Waratahs -0.01 4.98 -5.00
Brumbies -0.02 -6.66 6.60
Highlanders -1.63 -5.69 4.10
Cheetahs -2.92 -1.46 -1.50
Blues -5.73 2.87 -8.60
Force -8.17 -4.95 -3.20
Lions -10.87 -10.82 -0.10
Rebels -12.44 -15.64 3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 94 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Bulls May 25 28 – 22 1.30 TRUE
2 Hurricanes vs. Rebels May 26 66 – 24 12.80 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Highlanders May 26 20 – 27 1.80 FALSE
4 Brumbies vs. Reds May 26 12 – 13 4.70 FALSE
5 Force vs. Lions May 26 17 – 11 7.40 TRUE
6 Cheetahs vs. Waratahs May 26 35 – 34 1.70 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Stormers May 26 25 – 20 2.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Jun 01 Crusaders 15.20
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Jun 01 Brumbies -7.90
3 Blues vs. Chiefs Jun 02 Chiefs -4.00
4 Waratahs vs. Hurricanes Jun 02 Waratahs 4.00
5 Lions vs. Sharks Jun 02 Sharks -10.70
6 Bulls vs. Stormers Jun 02 Bulls 3.80

 

View comments (2)
May 23, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 12

By

Team Ratings for Round 12

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 12, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.63 4.63 6.00
Broncos 5.77 5.57 0.20
Sea Eagles 4.31 9.83 -5.50
Cowboys 3.61 -1.32 4.90
Bulldogs 2.50 -1.86 4.40
Warriors 1.88 5.28 -3.40
Wests Tigers 1.08 4.52 -3.40
Rabbitohs 0.21 0.04 0.20
Dragons 0.13 4.36 -4.20
Sharks -1.47 -7.97 6.50
Knights -1.54 0.77 -2.30
Roosters -2.35 0.25 -2.60
Raiders -6.05 -8.40 2.30
Titans -6.21 -11.80 5.60
Panthers -6.53 -3.40 -3.10
Eels -9.71 -4.23 -5.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.14%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors May 18 22 – 20 4.03 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Panthers May 19 30 – 28 17.04 TRUE
3 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters May 20 18 – 10 11.76 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs May 20 18 – 19 5.46 FALSE
5 Bulldogs vs. Sharks May 21 26 – 6 6.27 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Broncos May 25 Storm 9.40
2 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders May 25 Rabbitohs 10.80
3 Knights vs. Titans May 26 Knights 9.20
4 Dragons vs. Eels May 26 Dragons 14.30
5 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles May 27 Sea Eagles -6.30
6 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys May 27 Wests Tigers 2.00
7 Roosters vs. Bulldogs May 28 Bulldogs -0.30

 

 

Super 15 Predictions, Week 14

By

Team Ratings for Week 14

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 14, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.08 10.46 -1.40
Stormers 6.12 6.59 -0.50
Bulls 5.61 4.16 1.40
Sharks 4.10 0.87 3.20
Chiefs 2.37 -1.17 3.50
Brumbies 0.43 -6.66 7.10
Reds 0.26 5.03 -4.80
Waratahs -0.07 4.98 -5.00
Hurricanes -1.85 -1.90 0.00
Highlanders -2.34 -5.69 3.30
Cheetahs -2.86 -1.46 -1.40
Blues -5.02 2.87 -7.90
Force -8.05 -4.95 -3.10
Rebels -10.10 -15.64 5.50
Lions -10.98 -10.82 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 87 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies May 18 25 – 37 4.90 FALSE
2 Highlanders vs. Bulls May 19 16 – 11 -5.10 FALSE
3 Crusaders vs. Blues May 19 59 – 12 13.20 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Lions May 19 34 – 20 16.10 TRUE
5 Cheetahs vs. Sharks May 19 20 – 34 -0.30 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Waratahs May 19 19 – 13 11.60 TRUE
7 Force vs. Rebels May 20 31 – 32 8.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 14

Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Bulls May 25 Chiefs 1.30
2 Hurricanes vs. Rebels May 26 Hurricanes 12.80
3 Blues vs. Highlanders May 26 Blues 1.80
4 Brumbies vs. Reds May 26 Brumbies 4.70
5 Force vs. Lions May 26 Force 7.40
6 Cheetahs vs. Waratahs May 26 Cheetahs 1.70
7 Sharks vs. Stormers May 26 Sharks 2.50

 

 

May 16, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 11

By

Team Ratings for Round 11

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 11, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.63 4.63 6.00
Broncos 5.77 5.57 0.20
Cowboys 4.81 -1.32 6.10
Sea Eagles 4.61 9.83 -5.20
Warriors 1.72 5.28 -3.60
Bulldogs 1.40 -1.86 3.30
Wests Tigers 1.25 4.52 -3.30
Dragons 0.65 4.36 -3.70
Rabbitohs -0.31 0.04 -0.40
Sharks -0.37 -7.97 7.60
Knights -1.54 0.77 -2.30
Roosters -2.65 0.25 -2.90
Raiders -6.05 -8.40 2.30
Titans -6.21 -11.80 5.60
Panthers -7.73 -3.40 -4.30
Eels -9.71 -4.23 -5.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 79 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles May 11 22 – 24 7.12 FALSE
2 Bulldogs vs. Titans May 11 14 – 25 16.50 FALSE
3 Warriors vs. Roosters May 12 30 – 26 9.79 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Cowboys May 12 12 – 32 1.60 FALSE
5 Raiders vs. Eels May 13 40 – 34 8.58 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Storm May 13 12 – 10 -8.12 FALSE
7 Panthers vs. Dragons May 14 13 – 12 -4.81 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors May 18 Wests Tigers 4.00
2 Cowboys vs. Panthers May 19 Cowboys 17.00
3 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters May 20 Sea Eagles 11.80
4 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs May 20 Dragons 5.50
5 Bulldogs vs. Sharks May 21 Bulldogs 6.30

 

Super 15 Predictions, Week 13

By

Team Ratings for Week 13

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 13, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stormers 6.57 6.59 -0.00
Bulls 6.42 4.16 2.30
Crusaders 6.37 10.46 -4.10
Sharks 3.00 0.87 2.10
Chiefs 2.37 -1.17 3.50
Reds 0.43 5.03 -4.60
Hurricanes -0.50 -1.90 1.40
Waratahs -0.52 4.98 -5.50
Brumbies -0.92 -6.66 5.70
Cheetahs -1.76 -1.46 -0.30
Blues -2.32 2.87 -5.20
Highlanders -3.14 -5.69 2.50
Force -7.33 -4.95 -2.40
Rebels -10.82 -15.64 4.80
Lions -11.15 -10.82 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Lions May 11 25 – 3 11.70 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Bulls May 11 24 – 27 -2.30 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes May 12 20 – 26 3.30 FALSE
4 Rebels vs. Crusaders May 12 28 – 19 -16.80 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Force May 12 53 – 11 9.70 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Cheetahs May 12 16 – 14 14.90 TRUE
7 Reds vs. Chiefs May 13 42 – 27 0.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies May 18 Hurricanes 4.90
2 Highlanders vs. Bulls May 19 Bulls -5.10
3 Crusaders vs. Blues May 19 Crusaders 13.20
4 Reds vs. Lions May 19 Reds 16.10
5 Cheetahs vs. Sharks May 19 Sharks -0.30
6 Stormers vs. Waratahs May 19 Stormers 11.60
7 Force vs. Rebels May 20 Force 8.00

 

View comments (3)
May 9, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 10, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.44 4.63 6.80
Broncos 6.50 5.57 0.90
Sea Eagles 3.88 9.83 -5.90
Bulldogs 3.60 -1.86 5.50
Cowboys 3.08 -1.32 4.40
Warriors 2.18 5.28 -3.10
Wests Tigers 1.25 4.52 -3.30
Dragons 1.11 4.36 -3.20
Knights 0.19 0.77 -0.60
Rabbitohs -0.31 0.04 -0.40
Sharks -1.18 -7.97 6.80
Roosters -3.11 0.25 -3.40
Raiders -5.84 -8.40 2.60
Panthers -8.20 -3.40 -4.80
Titans -8.41 -11.80 3.40
Eels -9.92 -4.23 -5.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 42 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.33%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Bulldogs May 04 12 – 46 -4.26 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Dragons May 04 30 – 6 3.13 TRUE
3 Warriors vs. Broncos May 05 30 – 20 -1.69 FALSE
4 Titans vs. Wests Tigers May 05 14 – 15 -5.95 TRUE
5 Panthers vs. Storm May 05 10 – 44 -11.55 TRUE
6 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders May 06 18 – 12 15.79 TRUE
7 Roosters vs. Knights May 06 24 – 6 -2.00 FALSE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks May 07 34 – 28 5.25 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles May 11 Broncos 7.10
2 Bulldogs vs. Titans May 11 Bulldogs 16.50
3 Warriors vs. Roosters May 12 Warriors 9.80
4 Knights vs. Cowboys May 12 Knights 1.60
5 Raiders vs. Eels May 13 Raiders 8.60
6 Sharks vs. Storm May 13 Storm -8.10
7 Panthers vs. Dragons May 14 Dragons -4.80

 

View comments (3)

Super 15 Predictions, Week 12

By

Team Ratings for Week 12

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 12, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.44 10.46 -2.00
Stormers 7.60 6.59 1.00
Bulls 6.36 4.16 2.20
Chiefs 3.56 -1.17 4.70
Sharks 0.42 0.87 -0.50
Waratahs -0.46 4.98 -5.40
Reds -0.75 5.03 -5.80
Brumbies -0.92 -6.66 5.70
Hurricanes -1.24 -1.90 0.70
Highlanders -2.39 -5.69 3.30
Cheetahs -2.79 -1.46 -1.30
Blues -3.14 2.87 -6.00
Force -4.75 -4.95 0.20
Lions -10.32 -10.82 0.50
Rebels -12.89 -15.64 2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 73 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Blues May 04 35 – 19 4.60 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Bulls May 04 35 – 41 -16.40 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Lions May 05 34 – 21 19.40 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs May 05 23 – 6 1.60 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Highlanders May 05 28 – 16 6.40 TRUE
6 Cheetahs vs. Force May 05 17 – 13 6.90 TRUE
7 Crusaders vs. Reds May 06 15 – 11 15.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Lions May 11 Blues 11.70
2 Waratahs vs. Bulls May 11 Bulls -2.30
3 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes May 12 Highlanders 3.30
4 Rebels vs. Crusaders May 12 Crusaders -16.80
5 Sharks vs. Force May 12 Sharks 9.70
6 Stormers vs. Cheetahs May 12 Stormers 14.90
7 Reds vs. Chiefs May 13 Reds 0.20

 

View comments (6)
May 2, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 9

By

 

Team Ratings for Round 9

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 9, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.64 4.63 5.00
Broncos 7.44 5.57 1.90
Sea Eagles 4.66 9.83 -5.20
Dragons 2.78 4.36 -1.60
Knights 1.79 0.77 1.00
Wests Tigers 1.64 4.52 -2.90
Cowboys 1.41 -1.32 2.70
Warriors 1.25 5.28 -4.00
Bulldogs 1.22 -1.86 3.10
Rabbitohs -0.37 0.04 -0.40
Sharks -1.12 -7.97 6.90
Roosters -4.71 0.25 -5.00
Panthers -6.40 -3.40 -3.00
Raiders -6.62 -8.40 1.80
Eels -7.54 -4.23 -3.30
Titans -8.80 -11.80 3.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.25%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Roosters Apr 25 28 – 24 13.52 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 32 – 14 11.92 TRUE
3 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Apr 27 10 – 12 1.64 FALSE
4 Broncos vs. Titans Apr 27 26 – 6 20.88 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Apr 28 20 – 16 2.47 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Sharks Apr 29 22 – 44 3.00 FALSE
7 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 29 30 – 31 -5.38 TRUE
8 Knights vs. Panthers Apr 30 34 – 14 11.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Bulldogs May 04 Bulldogs -4.30
2 Cowboys vs. Dragons May 04 Cowboys 3.10
3 Warriors vs. Broncos May 05 Broncos -1.70
4 Titans vs. Wests Tigers May 05 Wests Tigers -5.90
5 Panthers vs. Storm May 05 Storm -11.50
6 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders May 06 Sea Eagles 15.80
7 Roosters vs. Knights May 06 Knights -2.00
8 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks May 07 Rabbitohs 5.20

 

« Later posts
Earlier posts »