Posts written by David Scott (1773)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

May 2, 2012

Super 15 Predictions, Week 11

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Team Ratings for Week 11

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 11, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.36 10.46 -1.10
Stormers 7.60 6.59 1.00
Bulls 7.19 4.16 3.00
Chiefs 4.07 -1.17 5.20
Waratahs 0.77 4.98 -4.20
Sharks -0.03 0.87 -0.90
Reds -1.68 5.03 -6.70
Highlanders -1.95 -5.69 3.70
Hurricanes -2.16 -1.90 -0.30
Brumbies -2.16 -6.66 4.50
Blues -2.23 2.87 -5.10
Cheetahs -2.56 -1.46 -1.10
Force -4.98 -4.95 -0.00
Lions -10.83 -10.82 -0.00
Rebels -13.72 -15.64 1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 66 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Reds Apr 27 11 – 23 7.00 FALSE
2 Lions vs. Brumbies Apr 27 20 – 34 -2.30 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Apr 28 33 – 14 9.20 TRUE
4 Force vs. Stormers Apr 28 3 – 17 -7.00 TRUE
5 Cheetahs vs. Highlanders Apr 28 33 – 36 5.20 FALSE
6 Waratahs vs. Crusaders Apr 29 33 – 37 -4.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Blues May 04 Hurricanes 4.60
2 Rebels vs. Bulls May 04 Bulls -16.40
3 Chiefs vs. Lions May 05 Chiefs 19.40
4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs May 05 Brumbies 1.60
5 Sharks vs. Highlanders May 05 Sharks 6.40
6 Cheetahs vs. Force May 05 Cheetahs 6.90
7 Crusaders vs. Reds May 06 Crusaders 15.50

 

April 25, 2012

Super 15 Predictions, Week 10

By

Team Ratings for Week 10

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 10, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.37 10.46 -1.10
Bulls 7.19 4.16 3.00
Stormers 7.03 6.59 0.40
Chiefs 3.28 -1.17 4.40
Waratahs 0.76 4.98 -4.20
Sharks -0.03 0.87 -0.90
Blues -0.71 2.87 -3.60
Hurricanes -1.37 -1.90 0.50
Cheetahs -1.90 -1.46 -0.40
Highlanders -2.60 -5.69 3.10
Brumbies -3.09 -6.66 3.60
Reds -3.20 5.03 -8.20
Force -4.42 -4.95 0.50
Lions -9.90 -10.82 0.90
Rebels -13.72 -15.64 1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Blues Apr 20 30 – 27 2.50 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Stormers Apr 20 13 – 23 -4.90 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Apr 21 14 – 42 -2.10 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Rebels Apr 21 30 – 21 20.90 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Chiefs Apr 21 12 – 18 2.60 FALSE
6 Bulls vs. Brumbies Apr 21 36 – 34 17.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Reds Apr 27 Blues 7.00
2 Lions vs. Brumbies Apr 27 Brumbies -2.30
3 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Apr 28 Chiefs 9.20
4 Force vs. Stormers Apr 28 Stormers -7.00
5 Cheetahs vs. Highlanders Apr 28 Cheetahs 5.20
6 Waratahs vs. Crusaders Apr 29 Crusaders -4.10

 

NRL Predictions, Round 8

By

Team Ratings for Round 8

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 8, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.16 4.63 4.50
Broncos 7.51 5.57 1.90
Sea Eagles 4.37 9.83 -5.50
Dragons 3.54 4.36 -0.80
Wests Tigers 1.99 4.52 -2.50
Warriors 1.73 5.28 -3.50
Cowboys 1.53 -1.32 2.80
Bulldogs 1.51 -1.86 3.40
Knights 1.09 0.77 0.30
Rabbitohs -0.49 0.04 -0.50
Sharks -3.12 -7.97 4.90
Raiders -4.62 -8.40 3.80
Roosters -5.47 0.25 -5.70
Panthers -5.71 -3.40 -2.30
Eels -7.89 -4.23 -3.70
Titans -8.87 -11.80 2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 53.57%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Knights Apr 13 12 – 4 6.76 TRUE
2 Broncos vs. Raiders Apr 13 30 – 6 15.23 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Bulldogs Apr 14 12 – 6 13.32 TRUE
4 Roosters vs. Cowboys Apr 14 12 – 50 4.26 FALSE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Titans Apr 14 14 – 26 23.41 FALSE
6 Warriors vs. Rabbitohs Apr 15 44 – 22 3.82 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Eels Apr 15 24 – 18 9.90 TRUE
8 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Apr 15 0 – 30 1.91 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Roosters Apr 25 Dragons 13.50
2 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 Storm 11.90
3 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Apr 27 Bulldogs 1.60
4 Broncos vs. Titans Apr 27 Broncos 20.90
5 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Apr 28 Rabbitohs 2.50
6 Raiders vs. Sharks Apr 29 Raiders 3.00
7 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 29 Wests Tigers -5.40
8 Knights vs. Panthers Apr 30 Knights 11.30

 

April 19, 2012

Super 15 Predictions, Week 9

By

Team Ratings for Week 9

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 9, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.


Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 8.41 4.16 4.20
Crusaders 7.30 10.46 -3.20
Stormers 6.63 6.59 0.00
Chiefs 2.60 -1.17 3.80
Waratahs 1.72 4.98 -3.30
Hurricanes 0.70 -1.90 2.60
Sharks 0.65 0.87 -0.20
Blues -0.67 2.87 -3.50
Cheetahs -1.90 -1.46 -0.40
Highlanders -2.64 -5.69 3.00
Reds -2.79 5.03 -7.80
Brumbies -4.31 -6.66 2.30
Force -4.42 -4.95 0.50
Lions -9.90 -10.82 0.90
Rebels -14.68 -15.64 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Sharks Apr 13 23 – 29 4.90 FALSE
2 Force vs. Waratahs Apr 13 18 – 23 -1.00 TRUE
3 Crusaders vs. Stormers Apr 14 31 – 24 4.80 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Rebels Apr 14 37 – 6 11.80 TRUE
5 Cheetahs vs. Chiefs Apr 14 33 – 39 1.10 FALSE
6 Lions vs. Bulls Apr 14 18 – 32 -13.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Blues Apr 20 Highlanders 2.50
2 Reds vs. Stormers Apr 20 Stormers -4.90
3 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Apr 21 Crusaders -2.10
4 Waratahs vs. Rebels Apr 21 Waratahs 20.90
5 Sharks vs. Chiefs Apr 21 Sharks 2.60
6 Bulls vs. Brumbies Apr 21 Bulls 17.20

 

April 12, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 7, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.74 4.63 5.10
Sea Eagles 7.20 9.83 -2.60
Broncos 6.81 5.57 1.20
Dragons 3.45 4.36 -0.90
Knights 1.19 0.77 0.40
Rabbitohs 0.96 0.04 0.90
Bulldogs 0.92 -1.86 2.80
Warriors 0.28 5.28 -5.00
Wests Tigers -0.56 4.52 -5.10
Cowboys -1.85 -1.32 -0.50
Roosters -2.09 0.25 -2.30
Sharks -2.81 -7.97 5.20
Panthers -3.15 -3.40 0.30
Raiders -3.92 -8.40 4.50
Eels -8.20 -4.23 -4.00
Titans -11.71 -11.80 0.10

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 52.08%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Apr 06 20 – 10 3.50 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Broncos Apr 06 14 – 18 -2.65 TRUE
3 Titans vs. Roosters Apr 07 12 – 18 -4.95 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Dragons Apr 07 12 – 0 -4.37 FALSE
5 Raiders vs. Warriors Apr 08 32 – 12 -3.45 FALSE
6 Knights vs. Eels Apr 08 14 – 6 15.01 TRUE
7 Cowboys vs. Storm Apr 08 18 – 42 -3.87 TRUE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Apr 09 30 – 0 11.97 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Knights Apr 13 Dragons 6.80
2 Broncos vs. Raiders Apr 13 Broncos 15.20
3 Storm vs. Bulldogs Apr 14 Storm 13.30
4 Roosters vs. Cowboys Apr 14 Roosters 4.30
5 Sea Eagles vs. Titans Apr 14 Sea Eagles 23.40
6 Warriors vs. Rabbitohs Apr 15 Warriors 3.80
7 Sharks vs. Eels Apr 15 Sharks 9.90
8 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Apr 15 Panthers 1.90

 

Super 15 Predictions, Week 8

By

Team Ratings for Week 8

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 8, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 8.39 4.16 4.20
Crusaders 7.12 10.46 -3.30
Stormers 6.80 6.59 0.20
Chiefs 2.03 -1.17 3.20
Waratahs 1.39 4.98 -3.60
Hurricanes 0.70 -1.90 2.60
Blues 0.20 2.87 -2.70
Sharks -0.22 0.87 -1.10
Cheetahs -1.33 -1.46 0.10
Highlanders -2.64 -5.69 3.00
Reds -2.79 5.03 -7.80
Force -4.10 -4.95 0.90
Brumbies -5.85 -6.66 0.80
Lions -9.88 -10.82 0.90
Rebels -13.14 -15.64 2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rebels vs. Blues Apr 05 34 – 23 -12.60 FALSE
2 Hurricanes vs. Sharks Apr 06 43 – 18 1.70 TRUE
3 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 06 20 – 13 7.70 TRUE
4 Force vs. Chiefs Apr 06 12 – 20 -0.40 TRUE
5 Highlanders vs. Stormers Apr 07 6 – 21 -3.00 TRUE
6 Cheetahs vs. Lions Apr 07 26 – 5 11.50 TRUE
7 Bulls vs. Crusaders Apr 07 32 – 30 6.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Sharks Apr 13 Blues 4.90
2 Force vs. Waratahs Apr 13 Waratahs -1.00
3 Crusaders vs. Stormers Apr 14 Crusaders 4.80
4 Brumbies vs. Rebels Apr 14 Brumbies 11.80
5 Cheetahs vs. Chiefs Apr 14 Cheetahs 1.10
6 Lions vs. Bulls Apr 14 Bulls -13.80

 

 

April 5, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 6

By

 

Team Ratings for Round 6

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 6, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.


Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.13 4.63 3.50
Broncos 6.70 5.57 1.10
Sea Eagles 5.76 9.83 -4.10
Dragons 4.76 4.36 0.40
Warriors 2.15 5.28 -3.10
Knights 1.75 0.77 1.00
Bulldogs 1.44 -1.86 3.30
Rabbitohs 0.44 0.04 0.40
Cowboys -0.24 -1.32 1.10
Wests Tigers -0.45 4.52 -5.00
Panthers -1.71 -3.40 1.70
Roosters -2.18 0.25 -2.40
Sharks -4.12 -7.97 3.90
Raiders -5.80 -8.40 2.60
Eels -8.76 -4.23 -4.50
Titans -11.62 -11.80 0.20

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 47.5%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.


Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Knights Mar 30 34 – 22 10.67 TRUE
2 Broncos vs. Dragons Mar 30 28 – 20 6.15 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Sharks Mar 31 14 – 15 8.41 FALSE
4 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Mar 31 29 – 20 -13.65 FALSE
5 Roosters vs. Warriors Mar 31 26 – 8 -3.23 FALSE
6 Titans vs. Bulldogs Apr 01 20 – 30 -8.29 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Apr 01 16 – 17 4.48 FALSE
8 Raiders vs. Cowboys Apr 02 6 – 22 1.78 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Apr 06 Rabbitohs 3.50
2 Wests Tigers vs. Broncos Apr 06 Broncos -2.70
3 Titans vs. Roosters Apr 07 Roosters -4.90
4 Sharks vs. Dragons Apr 07 Dragons -4.40
5 Raiders vs. Warriors Apr 08 Warriors -3.50
6 Knights vs. Eels Apr 08 Knights 15.00
7 Cowboys vs. Storm Apr 08 Storm -3.90
8 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Apr 09 Sea Eagles 12.00

Super 15 Predictions, Week 7

By

Team Ratings for Week 7

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 7, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 8.75 4.16 4.60
Crusaders 6.77 10.46 -3.70
Stormers 5.84 6.59 -0.80
Blues 2.09 2.87 -0.80
Sharks 1.64 0.87 0.80
Chiefs 1.42 -1.17 2.60
Waratahs 1.39 4.98 -3.60
Hurricanes -1.16 -1.90 0.70
Highlanders -1.68 -5.69 4.00
Cheetahs -2.09 -1.46 -0.60
Reds -2.74 5.03 -7.80
Force -3.49 -4.95 1.50
Brumbies -5.90 -6.66 0.80
Lions -9.12 -10.82 1.70
Rebels -15.03 -15.64 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 41 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Rebels Mar 30 43 – 12 15.30 TRUE
2 Hurricanes vs. Cheetahs Mar 31 38 – 47 8.20 FALSE
3 Chiefs vs. Waratahs Mar 31 30 – 13 2.10 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Sharks Mar 31 26 – 29 -3.10 TRUE
5 Force vs. Reds Mar 31 45 – 19 -0.50 FALSE
6 Lions vs. Crusaders Mar 31 13 – 23 -11.70 TRUE
7 Stormers vs. Bulls Mar 31 20 – 17 1.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rebels vs. Blues Apr 05 Blues -12.60
2 Hurricanes vs. Sharks Apr 06 Hurricanes 1.70
3 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 06 Reds 7.70
4 Force vs. Chiefs Apr 06 Chiefs -0.40
5 Highlanders vs. Stormers Apr 07 Stormers -3.00
6 Cheetahs vs. Lions Apr 07 Cheetahs 11.50
7 Bulls vs. Crusaders Apr 07 Bulls 6.50

 

 

March 31, 2012

Statistics New Zealand Digital Yearbooks

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Statistics New Zealand has been undertaking the task of digitising their Yearbooks, dating back to 1893. The digitisation is not simple scanning which would not allow the easy copying of data.

One method of obtaining data which I have tested and appears to work satisfactorily is to use Excel 2010. Go to the Data tab, and select From Web. In the address box give the address of the page containing the table you wish to import. (For example from the 1893 Yearbook, I chose the page with the address http://www3.stats.govt.nz/New_Zealand_Official_Yearbooks/1893/NZOYB_1893.html#id333C618.) Then go to the table you want, click on the Yellow Arrow as directed, and you have your table in Excel.

I was alerted to this project by the interview last Saturday by Kim Hill of Claire Stent from Statistics New Zealand. You can get a podcast or listen to this by going to http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/saturday/20120324.

I would nominate this project for Stat of the Week, but I don’t think I am eligible.

March 30, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 5, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.03 4.63 3.40
Sea Eagles 7.57 9.83 -2.30
Broncos 6.55 5.57 1.00
Dragons 4.90 4.36 0.50
Warriors 3.85 5.28 -1.40
Knights 1.86 0.77 1.10
Bulldogs 1.31 -1.86 3.20
Rabbitohs 0.00 0.04 -0.00
Wests Tigers -0.01 4.52 -4.50
Panthers -0.96 -3.40 2.40
Cowboys -1.66 -1.32 -0.30
Roosters -3.87 0.25 -4.10
Raiders -4.38 -8.40 4.00
Sharks -4.87 -7.97 3.10
Eels -10.58 -4.23 -6.30
Titans -11.49 -11.80 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Panthers Mar 23 6 – 39 0.19 FALSE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Mar 23 12 – 20 -0.91 TRUE
3 Warriors vs. Titans Mar 24 26 – 6 19.81 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Mar 24 17 – 6 0.08 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Sharks Mar 24 14 – 20 10.32 FALSE
6 Storm vs. Roosters Mar 25 44 – 4 11.90 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Knights Mar 25 6 – 20 7.37 FALSE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Mar 26 16 – 30 13.22 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Knights Mar 30 Storm 10.70
2 Broncos vs. Dragons Mar 30 Broncos 6.10
3 Panthers vs. Sharks Mar 31 Panthers 8.40
4 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Mar 31 Sea Eagles -13.70
5 Roosters vs. Warriors Mar 31 Warriors -3.20
6 Titans vs. Bulldogs Apr 01 Bulldogs -8.30
7 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Apr 01 Wests Tigers 4.50
8 Raiders vs. Cowboys Apr 02 Raiders 1.80

 

 

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