Posts written by David Scott (1539)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

October 18, 2022

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 7.46 2.00 5.50
Wellington 7.15 3.58 3.60
North Harbour 6.08 2.31 3.80
Hawke’s Bay 5.09 5.87 -0.80
Bay of Plenty 4.05 0.10 4.00
Tasman 3.60 5.94 -2.30
Waikato 3.54 2.00 1.50
Auckland 3.05 4.50 -1.40
Otago -0.46 -1.63 1.20
Taranaki -1.13 3.63 -4.80
Northland -5.08 -6.68 1.60
Counties Manukau -7.34 -6.32 -1.00
Southland -11.26 -7.01 -4.20
Manawatu -12.41 -5.97 -6.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 76 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wellington vs. Auckland Oct 14 54 – 19 4.00 TRUE
2 Canterbury vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 15 24 – 10 4.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wellington vs. Canterbury Oct 22 Wellington 2.20

 

October 11, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.23 16.79 0.40
Ulster 10.46 9.27 1.20
Stormers 7.93 7.14 0.80
Bulls 6.87 7.84 -1.00
Munster 6.84 9.78 -2.90
Sharks 5.30 6.95 -1.70
Edinburgh 3.91 3.58 0.30
Glasgow 0.10 -0.00 0.10
Lions -0.67 -1.74 1.10
Ospreys -1.00 -0.83 -0.20
Connacht -1.86 -1.60 -0.30
Benetton -2.48 -3.68 1.20
Scarlets -3.16 -1.23 -1.90
Cardiff Rugby -7.25 -7.42 0.20
Dragons -11.49 -11.81 0.30
Zebre -14.70 -16.99 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 31 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Connacht vs. Munster Oct 08 20 – 11 -6.00 FALSE
2 Edinburgh vs. Lions Oct 08 19 – 22 10.30 FALSE
3 Zebre vs. Stormers Oct 09 20 – 37 -18.40 TRUE
4 Leinster vs. Sharks Oct 09 54 – 34 15.50 TRUE
5 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Rugby Oct 09 10 – 16 9.50 FALSE
6 Glasgow vs. Bulls Oct 09 35 – 21 -3.80 FALSE
7 Ulster vs. Ospreys Oct 09 47 – 17 14.60 TRUE
8 Benetton vs. Dragons Oct 09 34 – 14 12.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Connacht vs. Leinster Oct 15 Leinster -15.10
2 Ospreys vs. Stormers Oct 15 Stormers -4.40
3 Lions vs. Ulster Oct 15 Ulster -6.60
4 Sharks vs. Glasgow Oct 16 Sharks 9.70
5 Cardiff Rugby vs. Dragons Oct 16 Cardiff Rugby 8.20
6 Edinburgh vs. Benetton Oct 16 Edinburgh 10.90
7 Munster vs. Bulls Oct 16 Munster 4.50
8 Scarlets vs. Zebre Oct 16 Scarlets 16.00

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.35 6.34 2.00
La Rochelle 6.30 6.88 -0.60
Toulon 4.68 4.09 0.60
Montpellier 4.44 4.18 0.30
Racing 92 4.18 4.86 -0.70
Bordeaux Begles 4.08 5.27 -1.20
Clermont 3.90 4.05 -0.20
Castres Olympique 2.51 2.87 -0.40
Lyon 2.43 3.10 -0.70
Stade Francais 0.90 -1.05 2.00
Aviron Bayonnais -2.68 -4.26 1.60
Section Paloise -2.77 -2.12 -0.60
USA Perpignan -4.36 -2.75 -1.60
Brive -4.70 -4.20 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. La Rochelle Oct 08 29 – 13 -3.80 FALSE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier Oct 08 26 – 13 3.60 TRUE
3 Lyon vs. Bordeaux Begles Oct 08 36 – 21 4.10 TRUE
4 Racing 92 vs. Section Paloise Oct 08 26 – 13 13.50 TRUE
5 Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan Oct 08 52 – 3 9.50 TRUE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont Oct 08 46 – 10 9.30 TRUE
7 Toulon vs. Brive Oct 08 47 – 0 13.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 Oct 15 Bordeaux Begles 6.40
2 Brive vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 15 Stade Toulousain -6.50
3 Castres Olympique vs. Aviron Bayonnais Oct 15 Castres Olympique 11.70
4 La Rochelle vs. Toulon Oct 15 La Rochelle 8.10
5 Montpellier vs. Lyon Oct 15 Montpellier 8.50
6 Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais Oct 15 Section Paloise 2.80
7 USA Perpignan vs. Clermont Oct 15 Clermont -1.80

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sale Sharks 5.87 4.14 1.70
Leicester Tigers 5.64 7.93 -2.30
Exeter Chiefs 5.27 3.67 1.60
Gloucester 4.84 5.92 -1.10
Harlequins 3.51 3.92 -0.40
Northampton Saints 3.38 3.99 -0.60
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Saracens -0.94 -5.00 4.10
London Irish -1.52 -1.65 0.10
Bristol -4.36 -2.43 -1.90
Bath -8.75 -9.15 0.40
Newcastle Falcons -10.01 -8.76 -1.30
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 08 14 – 50 -1.90 TRUE
2 Bath vs. Gloucester Oct 09 17 – 21 -9.80 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Oct 09 16 – 26 6.00 FALSE
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Saracens Oct 10 14 – 34 -2.80 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Northampton Saints Oct 10 36 – 40 1.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. London Irish Oct 15 Sale Sharks 11.90
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Wasps Oct 16 Exeter Chiefs 10.00
3 Gloucester vs. Bristol Oct 16 Gloucester 13.70
4 Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 16 Northampton Saints 17.90
5 Saracens vs. Bath Oct 16 Saracens 12.30
6 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 17 Harlequins 2.40

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Finals

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Team Ratings for the Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 6.93 2.00 4.90
North Harbour 6.08 2.31 3.80
Wellington 5.83 3.58 2.30
Hawke’s Bay 5.09 5.87 -0.80
Bay of Plenty 4.58 0.10 4.50
Auckland 4.37 4.50 -0.10
Tasman 3.60 5.94 -2.30
Waikato 3.54 2.00 1.50
Otago -0.46 -1.63 1.20
Taranaki -1.13 3.63 -4.80
Northland -5.08 -6.68 1.60
Counties Manukau -7.34 -6.32 -1.00
Southland -11.26 -7.01 -4.20
Manawatu -12.41 -5.97 -6.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 74 matches played, 55 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 North Harbour vs. Auckland Oct 07 18 – 21 5.20 FALSE
2 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 08 28 – 21 2.30 TRUE
3 Canterbury vs. Northland Oct 08 23 – 16 15.50 TRUE
4 Waikato vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 09 27 – 34 2.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Finals

Here are the predictions for the Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wellington vs. Auckland Oct 14 Wellington 4.00
2 Canterbury vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 15 Canterbury 4.90

 

October 4, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.79 16.79 0.00
Ulster 9.78 9.27 0.50
Stormers 8.07 7.14 0.90
Bulls 7.62 7.84 -0.20
Munster 7.51 9.78 -2.30
Sharks 5.75 6.95 -1.20
Edinburgh 4.53 3.58 1.00
Ospreys -0.32 -0.83 0.50
Glasgow -0.65 -0.00 -0.60
Lions -1.29 -1.74 0.50
Scarlets -2.48 -1.23 -1.20
Connacht -2.53 -1.60 -0.90
Benetton -2.88 -3.68 0.80
Cardiff Rugby -7.93 -7.42 -0.50
Dragons -11.09 -11.81 0.70
Zebre -14.84 -16.99 2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 23 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 82.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulls vs. Connacht Oct 01 28 – 14 14.80 TRUE
2 Cardiff Rugby vs. Lions Oct 01 18 – 31 -1.00 TRUE
3 Ulster vs. Leinster Oct 01 13 – 20 -2.00 TRUE
4 Stormers vs. Edinburgh Oct 01 34 – 18 7.10 TRUE
5 Ospreys vs. Glasgow Oct 02 32 – 17 3.70 TRUE
6 Munster vs. Zebre Oct 02 21 – 5 28.00 TRUE
7 Benetton vs. Scarlets Oct 02 34 – 23 3.30 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Sharks Oct 02 19 – 20 -13.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Connacht vs. Munster Oct 08 Munster -6.00
2 Edinburgh vs. Lions Oct 08 Edinburgh 10.30
3 Zebre vs. Stormers Oct 09 Stormers -18.40
4 Leinster vs. Sharks Oct 09 Leinster 15.50
5 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Rugby Oct 09 Scarlets 9.50
6 Glasgow vs. Bulls Oct 09 Bulls -3.80
7 Ulster vs. Ospreys Oct 09 Ulster 14.60
8 Benetton vs. Dragons Oct 09 Benetton 12.70

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.53 6.34 1.20
La Rochelle 6.93 6.88 0.10
Montpellier 4.91 4.18 0.70
Clermont 4.71 4.05 0.70
Bordeaux Begles 4.46 5.27 -0.80
Racing 92 4.21 4.86 -0.60
Toulon 3.70 4.09 -0.40
Lyon 2.05 3.10 -1.10
Castres Olympique 2.04 2.87 -0.80
Stade Francais -0.24 -1.05 0.80
Section Paloise -2.79 -2.12 -0.70
USA Perpignan -3.23 -2.75 -0.50
Aviron Bayonnais -3.32 -4.26 0.90
Brive -3.72 -4.20 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Francais Oct 01 15 – 10 11.90 TRUE
2 Brive vs. Aviron Bayonnais Oct 02 25 – 22 6.40 TRUE
3 Clermont vs. Lyon Oct 02 43 – 20 8.20 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. Toulon Oct 02 17 – 34 1.20 FALSE
5 USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique Oct 02 14 – 10 0.90 TRUE
6 La Rochelle vs. Racing 92 Oct 02 24 – 19 9.70 TRUE
7 Montpellier vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 03 17 – 19 4.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. La Rochelle Oct 08 La Rochelle -3.80
2 Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier Oct 08 Castres Olympique 3.60
3 Lyon vs. Bordeaux Begles Oct 08 Lyon 4.10
4 Racing 92 vs. Section Paloise Oct 08 Racing 92 13.50
5 Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan Oct 08 Stade Francais 9.50
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont Oct 08 Stade Toulousain 9.30
7 Toulon vs. Brive Oct 08 Toulon 13.90

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 6.03 7.93 -1.90
Gloucester 5.92 5.92 0.00
Sale Sharks 4.38 4.14 0.20
Harlequins 4.05 3.92 0.10
Northampton Saints 3.86 3.99 -0.10
Exeter Chiefs 3.43 3.67 -0.20
Wasps 0.77 0.77 -0.00
London Irish -1.89 -1.65 -0.20
Saracens -3.10 -5.00 1.90
Bristol -3.31 -2.43 -0.90
Newcastle Falcons -7.88 -8.76 0.90
Bath -8.91 -9.15 0.20
Worcester Warriors -12.27 -12.27 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 5 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol Oct 01 30 – 15 -1.80 FALSE
2 London Irish vs. Bath Oct 02 47 – 38 12.00 TRUE
3 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 02 28 – 20 5.00 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 02 51 – 18 -8.40 FALSE
5 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Oct 03 35 – 29 4.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 08 Exeter Chiefs -2.20
2 Bath vs. Gloucester Oct 09 Gloucester -10.30
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Oct 09 Leicester Tigers 6.20
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Harlequins Oct 09 Harlequins -11.80
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Saracens Oct 10 Saracens -0.30
6 Wasps vs. Northampton Saints Oct 10 Wasps 1.40

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 7.43 2.00 5.40
North Harbour 6.56 2.31 4.20
Hawke’s Bay 5.56 5.87 -0.30
Wellington 5.36 3.58 1.80
Waikato 4.08 2.00 2.10
Bay of Plenty 4.03 0.10 3.90
Auckland 3.88 4.50 -0.60
Tasman 3.60 5.94 -2.30
Otago -0.46 -1.63 1.20
Taranaki -1.13 3.63 -4.80
Northland -5.58 -6.68 1.10
Counties Manukau -7.34 -6.32 -1.00
Southland -11.26 -7.01 -4.20
Manawatu -12.41 -5.97 -6.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman Sep 30 25 – 17 3.60 TRUE
2 Southland vs. North Harbour Oct 01 8 – 66 -11.80 TRUE
3 Auckland vs. Taranaki Oct 01 38 – 24 6.60 TRUE
4 Otago vs. Canterbury Oct 01 21 – 27 -5.20 TRUE
5 Counties Manukau vs. Wellington Oct 02 31 – 64 -8.00 TRUE
6 Northland vs. Manawatu Oct 02 41 – 24 8.30 TRUE
7 Waikato vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 02 35 – 34 2.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Auckland Oct 07 North Harbour 5.20
2 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 08 Wellington 2.30
3 Canterbury vs. Northland Oct 08 Canterbury 15.50
4 Waikato vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 09 Waikato 2.50

 

September 29, 2022

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 9

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Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 7.35 2.00 5.30
Hawke’s Bay 5.12 5.87 -0.70
North Harbour 4.79 2.31 2.50
Waikato 4.27 2.00 2.30
Wellington 4.24 3.58 0.70
Tasman 4.05 5.94 -1.90
Bay of Plenty 3.84 0.10 3.70
Auckland 3.44 4.50 -1.10
Otago -0.39 -1.63 1.20
Taranaki -0.69 3.63 -4.30
Northland -6.09 -6.68 0.60
Counties Manukau -6.22 -6.32 0.10
Southland -9.49 -7.01 -2.50
Manawatu -11.90 -5.97 -5.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Northland Sep 28 21 – 23 14.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman Sep 30 Hawke’s Bay 3.60
2 Southland vs. North Harbour Oct 01 North Harbour -11.80
3 Auckland vs. Taranaki Oct 01 Auckland 6.60
4 Otago vs. Canterbury Oct 01 Canterbury -5.20
5 Counties Manukau vs. Wellington Oct 02 Wellington -8.00
6 Northland vs. Manawatu Oct 02 Northland 8.30
7 Waikato vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 02 Waikato 2.90

 

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