Posts written by David Scott (1765)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

April 2, 2024

Top 14 Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.14 7.24 -0.10
Stade Rochelais 5.96 6.40 -0.40
Toulon 5.45 3.11 2.30
Stade Francais 3.51 2.62 0.90
Racing 92 3.44 3.42 0.00
Bordeaux Begles 3.29 4.07 -0.80
Section Paloise 0.80 -0.44 1.20
Castres Olympique 0.03 -0.39 0.40
Montpellier -0.06 2.09 -2.20
Lyon -0.29 2.97 -3.30
Clermont -0.37 1.47 -1.80
Bayonne -0.97 -1.32 0.30
USA Perpignan -2.27 -3.64 1.40
US Oyonnax -8.03 -10.00 2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 140 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lyon vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 31 27 – 10 1.90 TRUE
2 Montpellier vs. Stade Francais Mar 31 10 – 12 3.50 FALSE
3 Racing 92 vs. Clermont Mar 31 26 – 10 9.70 TRUE
4 Stade Rochelais vs. US Oyonnax Mar 31 40 – 21 20.70 TRUE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise Mar 31 31 – 29 13.60 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique Mar 31 43 – 12 2.50 TRUE
7 Bayonne vs. Toulon Apr 01 10 – 46 2.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Rochelais Apr 21 Castres Olympique 0.60
2 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier Apr 21 Section Paloise 7.40
3 Stade Francais vs. Bayonne Apr 21 Stade Francais 11.00
4 Toulon vs. Stade Toulousain Apr 21 Toulon 4.80
5 US Oyonnax vs. Racing 92 Apr 21 Racing 92 -5.00
6 USA Perpignan vs. Lyon Apr 21 USA Perpignan 4.50
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Clermont Apr 22 Bordeaux Begles 10.20

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 7

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Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.22 18.86 -3.60
Chiefs 12.78 13.21 -0.40
Blues 12.51 12.20 0.30
Hurricanes 12.45 9.73 2.70
Brumbies 6.80 6.52 0.30
Reds 1.88 0.07 1.80
Highlanders 0.51 1.17 -0.70
Waratahs -2.18 -1.90 -0.30
Rebels -5.17 -4.59 -0.60
Fijian Drua -6.71 -9.21 2.50
Western Force -7.41 -6.15 -1.30
Moana Pasifika -11.56 -10.80 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Mar 29 37 – 26 4.50 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Rebels Mar 29 21 – 27 7.10 FALSE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Western Force Mar 30 31 – 13 2.40 TRUE
4 Moana Pasifika vs. Blues Mar 30 8 – 47 -19.60 TRUE
5 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 30 12 – 47 -6.90 TRUE
6 Reds vs. Brumbies Mar 30 19 – 20 -2.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Western Force Apr 05 Blues 24.90
2 Rebels vs. Fijian Drua Apr 05 Rebels 4.50
3 Chiefs vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 06 Chiefs 27.30
4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Apr 06 Brumbies 12.00

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 15

By

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 8.43 6.82 1.60
Bristol 6.08 1.00 5.10
Leicester Tigers 4.13 6.13 -2.00
Northampton Saints 3.21 2.66 0.60
Bath 2.42 -1.26 3.70
Sale Sharks 1.66 6.46 -4.80
Harlequins 0.83 1.93 -1.10
Exeter Chiefs -0.97 -0.89 -0.10
Gloucester -2.84 -1.45 -1.40
Newcastle Falcons -12.21 -10.63 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gloucester vs. Bristol Mar 31 24 – 33 -1.60 TRUE
2 Harlequins vs. Bath Mar 31 40 – 36 4.50 TRUE
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 31 13 – 19 -11.30 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens Mar 31 41 – 30 -1.40 FALSE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 31 41 – 5 3.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 21 Bristol 24.30
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Apr 21 Exeter Chiefs 2.60
3 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 21 Northampton Saints 5.10
4 Saracens vs. Gloucester Apr 21 Saracens 17.30
5 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Apr 22 Sale Sharks 6.80

 

NRL Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 14.23 14.73 -0.50
Broncos 8.38 9.07 -0.70
Storm 6.03 6.15 -0.10
Roosters 5.62 3.08 2.50
Cowboys 2.91 2.47 0.40
Sharks 1.54 2.94 -1.40
Knights 0.84 1.84 -1.00
Warriors 0.12 -0.07 0.20
Eels -0.12 0.14 -0.30
Sea Eagles -0.12 -0.48 0.40
Rabbitohs -2.50 0.87 -3.40
Raiders -2.77 -4.31 1.50
Dolphins -5.16 -7.09 1.90
Dragons -7.59 -6.93 -0.70
Wests Tigers -10.27 -13.15 2.90
Bulldogs -10.92 -13.35 2.40
Titans -12.21 -7.89 -4.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Panthers Mar 28 16 – 22 -5.50 TRUE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Mar 29 20 – 16 12.50 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 29 38 – 12 6.10 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Mar 30 20 – 12 -6.20 FALSE
5 Titans vs. Dolphins Mar 30 14 – 30 -2.40 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Knights Mar 31 20 – 12 6.00 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Raiders Mar 31 36 – 22 6.30 TRUE
8 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 01 16 – 17 15.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Broncos Apr 04 Storm 0.60
2 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Apr 05 Roosters -13.50
3 Knights vs. Dragons Apr 05 Knights 11.40
4 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Apr 06 Rabbitohs 4.40
5 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Apr 06 Panthers -11.30
6 Dolphins vs. Wests Tigers Apr 06 Dolphins 8.10
7 Cowboys vs. Titans Apr 07 Cowboys 18.10
8 Raiders vs. Eels Apr 07 Raiders 0.30

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Melbourne Demons 16.86 13.91 3.00
GWS Giants 14.55 12.60 1.90
Geelong Cats 12.35 10.50 1.90
Carlton Blues 11.49 9.73 1.80
Brisbane Lions 11.36 17.47 -6.10
Sydney Swans 11.09 9.23 1.90
Collingwood 10.45 14.87 -4.40
Port Adelaide Power 8.27 8.83 -0.60
Western Bulldogs 8.14 6.04 2.10
Fremantle Dockers 5.17 0.40 4.80
Adelaide Crows 4.76 9.56 -4.80
St Kilda Saints 1.39 -0.63 2.00
Gold Coast Suns -3.85 -4.60 0.80
Richmond Tigers -6.23 -6.13 -0.10
Essendon Bombers -13.24 -17.70 4.50
Hawthorn Hawks -16.31 -11.08 -5.20
North Melbourne -26.94 -25.73 -1.20
West Coast Eagles -45.17 -43.10 -2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 29 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brisbane Lions vs. Collingwood Mar 28 72 – 92 14.40 FALSE
2 North Melbourne vs. Carlton Blues Mar 29 81 – 137 -35.60 TRUE
3 Fremantle Dockers vs. Adelaide Crows Mar 29 69 – 34 5.50 TRUE
4 Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints Mar 30 71 – 67 -17.60 FALSE
5 Port Adelaide Power vs. Melbourne Demons Mar 30 89 – 96 2.50 FALSE
6 Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast Eagles Mar 31 106 – 30 58.50 TRUE
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Sydney Swans Mar 31 82 – 77 -12.10 FALSE
8 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Geelong Cats Apr 01 70 – 106 -17.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Adelaide Crows vs. Melbourne Demons Apr 04 Melbourne Demons -3.10
2 Brisbane Lions vs. North Melbourne Apr 05 Brisbane Lions 47.30
3 Port Adelaide Power vs. Essendon Bombers Apr 05 Port Adelaide Power 30.50
4 West Coast Eagles vs. Sydney Swans Apr 06 Sydney Swans -47.30
5 Fremantle Dockers vs. Carlton Blues Apr 06 Fremantle Dockers 2.70
6 Western Bulldogs vs. Geelong Cats Apr 06 Western Bulldogs 4.80
7 Gold Coast Suns vs. GWS Giants Apr 07 GWS Giants -9.40
8 Richmond Tigers vs. St Kilda Saints Apr 07 Richmond Tigers 1.40
9 Collingwood vs. Hawthorn Hawks Apr 07 Collingwood 26.80

 

March 26, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 13

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Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.22 10.73 1.50
Bulls 11.44 9.00 2.40
Munster 8.76 10.54 -1.80
Stormers 6.44 8.93 -2.50
Glasgow 6.19 4.19 2.00
Lions 4.06 -4.26 8.30
Ulster 3.53 7.80 -4.30
Connacht 1.61 3.17 -1.60
Sharks -0.79 0.85 -1.60
Edinburgh -1.38 -2.26 0.90
Cardiff Rugby -3.37 -5.16 1.80
Ospreys -3.58 -7.79 4.20
Benetton -4.33 -5.12 0.80
Scarlets -10.50 -2.23 -8.30
Dragons -14.77 -8.14 -6.60
Zebre -15.54 -20.25 4.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 96 matches played, 67 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 23 17 – 13 15.30 TRUE
2 Ospreys vs. Munster Mar 23 17 – 27 -7.90 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Ulster Mar 23 22 – 12 -2.20 FALSE
4 Scarlets vs. Benetton Mar 24 16 – 13 -3.50 FALSE
5 Stormers vs. Edinburgh Mar 24 43 – 21 9.90 TRUE
6 Connacht vs. Lions Mar 24 14 – 38 5.80 FALSE
7 Dragons vs. Bulls Mar 24 10 – 31 -22.50 TRUE
8 Zebre vs. Leinster Mar 24 7 – 31 -23.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Zebre Mar 30 Dragons 4.80
2 Leinster vs. Bulls Mar 30 Leinster 4.80
3 Benetton vs. Connacht Mar 30 Connacht -1.90
4 Sharks vs. Edinburgh Mar 30 Sharks 4.60
5 Ospreys vs. Lions Mar 31 Lions -3.60
6 Stormers vs. Ulster Mar 31 Stormers 6.90
7 Munster vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 31 Munster 16.10
8 Scarlets vs. Glasgow Mar 31 Glasgow -12.70

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 20

By

Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.54 7.24 0.30
Stade Rochelais 6.04 6.40 -0.40
Toulon 4.34 3.11 1.20
Bordeaux Begles 3.79 4.07 -0.30
Stade Francais 3.23 2.62 0.60
Racing 92 3.12 3.42 -0.30
Castres Olympique 0.89 -0.39 1.30
Section Paloise 0.40 -0.44 0.80
Montpellier 0.22 2.09 -1.90
Bayonne 0.14 -1.32 1.50
Clermont -0.05 1.47 -1.50
Lyon -0.79 2.97 -3.80
USA Perpignan -3.13 -3.64 0.50
US Oyonnax -8.12 -10.00 1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 133 matches played, 97 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Toulon vs. Montpellier Mar 24 54 – 7 8.40 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Racing 92 Mar 24 21 – 23 5.00 FALSE
3 Clermont vs. Section Paloise Mar 24 31 – 28 6.40 TRUE
4 Stade Francais vs. Lyon Mar 24 22 – 13 10.70 TRUE
5 US Oyonnax vs. USA Perpignan Mar 24 14 – 15 1.80 FALSE
6 Bayonne vs. Stade Rochelais Mar 24 13 – 12 0.60 TRUE
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 25 31 – 28 2.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lyon vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 31 Lyon 1.90
2 Montpellier vs. Stade Francais Mar 31 Montpellier 3.50
3 Racing 92 vs. Clermont Mar 31 Racing 92 9.70
4 Stade Rochelais vs. US Oyonnax Mar 31 Stade Rochelais 20.70
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise Mar 31 Stade Toulousain 13.60
6 USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique Mar 31 USA Perpignan 2.50
7 Bayonne vs. Toulon Apr 01 Bayonne 2.30

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.77 18.86 -4.10
Chiefs 13.23 13.21 0.00
Blues 11.76 12.20 -0.40
Hurricanes 11.44 9.73 1.70
Brumbies 6.88 6.52 0.40
Reds 1.81 0.07 1.70
Highlanders 1.52 1.17 0.40
Waratahs -1.64 -1.90 0.30
Rebels -5.72 -4.59 -1.10
Western Force -6.78 -6.15 -0.60
Fijian Drua -7.34 -9.21 1.90
Moana Pasifika -10.81 -10.80 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Rebels Mar 22 54 – 28 21.50 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 22 60 – 21 21.30 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs Mar 23 39 – 36 -3.60 FALSE
4 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 23 28 – 21 15.50 TRUE
5 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 23 26 – 6 -1.60 FALSE
6 Western Force vs. Reds Mar 23 40 – 31 -6.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Mar 29 Crusaders 4.50
2 Waratahs vs. Rebels Mar 29 Waratahs 7.10
3 Fijian Drua vs. Western Force Mar 30 Fijian Drua 2.40
4 Moana Pasifika vs. Blues Mar 30 Blues -19.60
5 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 30 Hurricanes -6.90
6 Reds vs. Brumbies Mar 30 Brumbies -2.10

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 9.53 6.82 2.70
Bristol 5.41 1.00 4.40
Leicester Tigers 4.62 6.13 -1.50
Bath 2.37 -1.26 3.60
Northampton Saints 2.12 2.66 -0.50
Exeter Chiefs 1.79 -0.89 2.70
Harlequins 0.89 1.93 -1.00
Sale Sharks -1.10 6.46 -7.60
Gloucester -2.17 -1.45 -0.70
Newcastle Falcons -12.70 -10.63 -2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 65 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Mar 23 52 – 21 4.90 TRUE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Mar 23 25 – 27 15.90 FALSE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 24 25 – 16 22.90 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Harlequins Mar 24 52 – 7 8.60 TRUE
5 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Mar 25 42 – 24 7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Bristol Mar 31 Bristol -1.60
2 Harlequins vs. Bath Mar 31 Harlequins 4.50
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 31 Leicester Tigers -11.30
4 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens Mar 31 Saracens -1.40
5 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 31 Sale Sharks 3.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 4

By

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 14.20 14.73 -0.50
Broncos 7.18 9.07 -1.90
Storm 6.03 6.15 -0.10
Roosters 5.65 3.08 2.60
Cowboys 4.11 2.47 1.60
Sharks 1.05 2.94 -1.90
Knights 0.98 1.84 -0.90
Eels 0.86 0.14 0.70
Sea Eagles 0.75 -0.48 1.20
Warriors -0.02 -0.07 0.10
Rabbitohs -1.96 0.87 -2.80
Raiders -2.29 -4.31 2.00
Dolphins -6.00 -7.09 1.10
Dragons -8.46 -6.93 -1.50
Wests Tigers -11.25 -13.15 1.90
Titans -11.37 -7.89 -3.50
Bulldogs -11.46 -13.35 1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Broncos Mar 21 34 – 12 8.30 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Raiders Mar 22 18 – 10 9.50 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Mar 22 48 – 6 6.40 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Titans Mar 23 32 – 0 -1.00 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Cowboys Mar 23 24 – 46 -7.80 TRUE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Mar 23 32 – 6 -14.00 FALSE
7 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Mar 24 28 – 24 3.00 TRUE
8 Knights vs. Storm Mar 24 14 – 12 -2.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Panthers Mar 28 Panthers -5.50
2 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Mar 29 Rabbitohs 12.50
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 29 Broncos 6.10
4 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Mar 30 Sea Eagles -6.20
5 Titans vs. Dolphins Mar 30 Dolphins -2.40
6 Warriors vs. Knights Mar 31 Warriors 6.00
7 Sharks vs. Raiders Mar 31 Sharks 6.30
8 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 01 Eels 15.10

 

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