Posts written by David Scott (1747)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

January 18, 2022

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 7.95 7.25 0.70
Sharks 4.13 4.13 -0.00
Western Province 1.93 1.42 0.50
Cheetahs -2.30 -2.70 0.40
Lions -2.39 -1.88 -0.50
Pumas -4.01 -3.31 -0.70
Griquas -5.31 -4.92 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 3 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 100%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Bulls Jan 15 19 – 33 -6.10 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Jan 15 30 – 20 6.70 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Lions Jan 16 48 – 36 7.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Pumas Jan 20 Lions 6.10
2 Sharks vs. Griquas Jan 20 Sharks 13.90
3 Western Province vs. Bulls Jan 20 Bulls -1.50

 

January 13, 2022

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 7.25 7.25 -0.00
Sharks 4.13 4.13 -0.00
Western Province 1.42 1.42 -0.00
Lions -1.88 -1.88 0.00
Cheetahs -2.70 -2.70 -0.00
Pumas -3.31 -3.31 -0.00
Griquas -4.92 -4.92 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Bulls Jan 15 Bulls -6.10
2 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Jan 15 Cheetahs 6.70
3 Western Province vs. Lions Jan 16 Western Province 7.80

 

January 11, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 11

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Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.38 14.79 0.60
Munster 10.22 10.69 -0.50
Ulster 7.47 7.41 0.10
Edinburgh 3.77 2.90 0.90
Connacht 3.60 1.72 1.90
Glasgow 3.55 3.69 -0.10
Bulls 1.98 3.65 -1.70
Sharks 0.97 -0.07 1.00
Stormers 0.29 0.00 0.30
Ospreys 0.07 0.94 -0.90
Cardiff Rugby -1.61 -0.11 -1.50
Scarlets -1.72 -0.77 -1.00
Lions -1.80 -3.91 2.10
Benetton -3.39 -4.50 1.10
Dragons -6.12 -6.92 0.80
Zebre -16.61 -13.47 -3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Edinburgh vs. Cardiff Rugby Jan 09 34 – 10 10.40 TRUE
2 Glasgow vs. Ospreys Jan 09 38 – 19 8.80 TRUE
3 Munster vs. Ulster Jan 09 18 – 13 8.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Sharks Jan 23 Lions 2.20
2 Bulls vs. Stormers Jan 23 Bulls 6.70

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.35 6.83 1.50
La Rochelle 8.04 6.78 1.30
Bordeaux-Begles 6.84 5.42 1.40
Lyon Rugby 5.14 4.15 1.00
Clermont Auvergne 4.90 5.09 -0.20
Racing-Metro 92 4.24 6.13 -1.90
Montpellier 3.55 -0.01 3.60
Castres Olympique 0.95 0.94 0.00
Stade Francais Paris 0.15 1.20 -1.10
RC Toulonnais -0.19 1.82 -2.00
Section Paloise -2.64 -2.25 -0.40
Brive -3.45 -3.19 -0.30
USA Perpignan -3.97 -2.78 -1.20
Biarritz -4.54 -2.78 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 98 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Biarritz vs. USA Perpignan Jan 09 23 – 25 6.80 FALSE
2 Brive vs. Bordeaux-Begles Jan 09 19 – 22 -3.90 TRUE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Francais Paris Jan 09 15 – 9 7.40 TRUE
4 Lyon Rugby vs. Section Paloise Jan 09 35 – 10 13.50 TRUE
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Clermont Auvergne Jan 09 33 – 28 5.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Castres Olympique Jan 30 Bordeaux-Begles 12.40
2 Brive vs. Biarritz Jan 30 Brive 7.60
3 La Rochelle vs. Montpellier Jan 30 La Rochelle 11.00
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing-Metro 92 Jan 30 Stade Toulousain 10.60
5 USA Perpignan vs. Lyon Rugby Jan 30 Lyon Rugby -2.60
6 Section Paloise vs. Clermont Auvergne Jan 31 Clermont Auvergne -1.00
7 Stade Francais Paris vs. RC Toulonnais Jan 31 Stade Francais Paris 6.80

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 4.76 7.35 -2.60
Saracens 3.91 -5.00 8.90
Leicester Tigers 2.01 -6.14 8.10
Harlequins 1.65 -1.08 2.70
Wasps 1.49 5.66 -4.20
Sale Sharks 1.33 4.96 -3.60
Gloucester 0.87 -1.02 1.90
Northampton Saints 0.01 -2.48 2.50
Bristol -1.85 1.28 -3.10
London Irish -4.05 -8.05 4.00
Bath -5.38 2.14 -7.50
Newcastle Falcons -6.83 -3.52 -3.30
Worcester Warriors -9.54 -5.71 -3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 76 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks Jan 08 32 – 15 -0.50 FALSE
2 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 09 14 – 12 1.30 TRUE
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints Jan 09 8 – 44 1.10 FALSE
4 Saracens vs. Gloucester Jan 09 24 – 25 8.60 FALSE
5 Bath vs. Worcester Warriors Jan 10 22 – 19 9.40 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 10 16 – 13 4.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Harlequins Jan 29 Harlequins -2.50
2 London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 30 Exeter Chiefs -4.30
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester Jan 30 Gloucester -3.20
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Northampton Saints Jan 30 Northampton Saints -5.10
5 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 31 Sale Sharks 3.80
6 Wasps vs. Saracens Jan 31 Wasps 2.10

 

January 4, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 10

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Team Ratings for Week 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.38 14.79 0.60
Munster 10.52 10.69 -0.20
Ulster 7.17 7.41 -0.20
Connacht 3.60 1.72 1.90
Edinburgh 3.04 2.90 0.10
Glasgow 2.98 3.69 -0.70
Bulls 1.98 3.65 -1.70
Sharks 0.97 -0.07 1.00
Ospreys 0.65 0.94 -0.30
Stormers 0.29 0.00 0.30
Cardiff Rugby -0.89 -0.11 -0.80
Scarlets -1.72 -0.77 -1.00
Lions -1.80 -3.91 2.10
Benetton -3.39 -4.50 1.10
Dragons -6.12 -6.92 0.80
Zebre -16.61 -13.47 -3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 51 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Connacht vs. Munster Jan 02 10 – 8 -2.80 FALSE
2 Scarlets vs. Ospreys Jan 02 22 – 19 2.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Edinburgh vs. Cardiff Rugby Jan 09 Edinburgh 10.40
2 Glasgow vs. Ospreys Jan 09 Glasgow 8.80
3 Munster vs. Ulster Jan 09 Munster 8.30
4 Scarlets vs. Dragons Jan 09 Scarlets 9.40

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.35 6.83 1.50
La Rochelle 8.04 6.78 1.30
Bordeaux-Begles 6.89 5.42 1.50
Clermont Auvergne 4.85 5.09 -0.20
Lyon Rugby 4.74 4.15 0.60
Racing-Metro 92 4.29 6.13 -1.80
Montpellier 3.55 -0.01 3.60
Castres Olympique 1.02 0.94 0.10
Stade Francais Paris 0.07 1.20 -1.10
RC Toulonnais -0.19 1.82 -2.00
Section Paloise -2.24 -2.25 0.00
Brive -3.49 -3.19 -0.30
Biarritz -4.10 -2.78 -1.30
USA Perpignan -4.41 -2.78 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 93 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Clermont Auvergne vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 02 16 – 13 3.00 TRUE
2 Stade Francais Paris vs. USA Perpignan Jan 02 27 – 17 11.10 TRUE
3 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Biarritz Jan 03 30 – 27 18.50 TRUE
4 Castres Olympique vs. La Rochelle Jan 03 31 – 30 -0.70 FALSE
5 Lyon Rugby vs. Racing-Metro 92 Jan 03 37 – 35 7.50 TRUE
6 Section Paloise vs. Brive Jan 03 43 – 20 6.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Biarritz vs. USA Perpignan Jan 09 Biarritz 6.80
2 Brive vs. Bordeaux-Begles Jan 09 Bordeaux-Begles -3.90
3 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Francais Paris Jan 09 Castres Olympique 7.40
4 Lyon Rugby vs. Section Paloise Jan 09 Lyon Rugby 13.50
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Clermont Auvergne Jan 09 Racing-Metro 92 5.90
6 RC Toulonnais vs. La Rochelle Jan 09 La Rochelle -1.70
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier Jan 10 Stade Toulousain 11.30

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 4.82 7.35 -2.50
Saracens 4.46 -5.00 9.50
Sale Sharks 2.25 4.96 -2.70
Leicester Tigers 1.92 -6.14 8.10
Harlequins 1.59 -1.08 2.70
Wasps 1.58 5.66 -4.10
Gloucester 0.32 -1.02 1.30
Northampton Saints -1.72 -2.48 0.80
Bristol -2.76 1.28 -4.00
London Irish -4.05 -8.05 4.00
Bath -5.00 2.14 -7.10
Newcastle Falcons -5.10 -3.52 -1.60
Worcester Warriors -9.93 -5.71 -4.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Jan 02 19 – 13 12.90 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Wasps Jan 02 26 – 18 4.60 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Jan 03 17 – 20 4.10 FALSE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Falcons Jan 03 31 – 0 9.30 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens Jan 03 6 – 30 0.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks Jan 08 Sale Sharks -0.50
2 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 09 Harlequins 1.30
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints Jan 09 Newcastle Falcons 1.10
4 Saracens vs. Gloucester Jan 09 Saracens 8.60
5 Bath vs. Worcester Warriors Jan 10 Bath 9.40
6 Wasps vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 10 Wasps 4.20

 

December 28, 2021

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 9

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Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.38 14.79 0.60
Munster 10.95 10.69 0.30
Ulster 7.17 7.41 -0.20
Connacht 3.16 1.72 1.40
Edinburgh 3.04 2.90 0.10
Glasgow 2.98 3.69 -0.70
Bulls 1.98 3.65 -1.70
Sharks 0.97 -0.07 1.00
Ospreys 0.69 0.94 -0.20
Stormers 0.29 0.00 0.30
Cardiff Rugby -0.89 -0.11 -0.80
Scarlets -1.76 -0.77 -1.00
Lions -1.80 -3.91 2.10
Benetton -3.39 -4.50 1.10
Dragons -6.12 -6.92 0.80
Zebre -16.61 -13.47 -3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 49 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Zebre vs. Benetton Dec 25 14 – 39 -6.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Cardiff Rugby Jan 02 Cardiff Rugby -0.20
2 Connacht vs. Munster Jan 02 Munster -2.80
3 Scarlets vs. Ospreys Jan 02 Scarlets 2.60
4 Ulster vs. Leinster Jan 02 Leinster -3.20
5 Benetton vs. Zebre Jan 03 Benetton 18.20
6 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Jan 03 Edinburgh 5.10

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.35 6.83 1.50
La Rochelle 8.12 6.78 1.30
Bordeaux-Begles 7.40 5.42 2.00
Lyon Rugby 5.02 4.15 0.90
Clermont Auvergne 4.85 5.09 -0.20
Racing-Metro 92 4.01 6.13 -2.10
Montpellier 3.55 -0.01 3.60
Castres Olympique 0.94 0.94 -0.00
Stade Francais Paris 0.13 1.20 -1.10
RC Toulonnais -0.19 1.82 -2.00
Section Paloise -2.78 -2.25 -0.50
Brive -2.96 -3.19 0.20
USA Perpignan -4.46 -2.78 -1.70
Biarritz -4.62 -2.78 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 87 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique Dec 27 19 – 20 1.30 FALSE
2 Biarritz vs. Montpellier Dec 28 12 – 27 -0.70 TRUE
3 La Rochelle vs. Lyon Rugby Dec 28 25 – 3 8.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Clermont Auvergne vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 02 Clermont Auvergne 3.00
2 Stade Francais Paris vs. USA Perpignan Jan 02 Stade Francais Paris 11.10
3 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Biarritz Jan 03 Bordeaux-Begles 18.50
4 Castres Olympique vs. La Rochelle Jan 03 La Rochelle -0.70
5 Lyon Rugby vs. Racing-Metro 92 Jan 03 Lyon Rugby 7.50
6 Montpellier vs. RC Toulonnais Jan 03 Montpellier 10.20
7 Section Paloise vs. Brive Jan 03 Section Paloise 6.70

 

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