Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

March 1, 2022

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 3

By

Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.50 13.43 1.10
Blues 9.07 9.26 -0.20
Hurricanes 8.08 8.28 -0.20
Chiefs 6.43 5.56 0.90
Highlanders 5.00 6.54 -1.50
Brumbies 4.13 3.61 0.50
Reds 1.79 1.37 0.40
Western Force -3.10 -4.96 1.90
Rebels -7.61 -5.79 -1.80
Waratahs -7.82 -9.00 1.20
Moana Pasifika -10.00 -10.00 0.00
Fijian Drua -12.16 -10.00 -2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Waratahs vs. Reds Feb 25 16 – 20 -4.10 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Fijian Drua Feb 26 42 – 3 19.80 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Feb 26 19 – 34 -2.60 TRUE
4 Rebels vs. Western Force Feb 26 3 – 28 3.80 FALSE
5 Blues vs. Hurricanes Feb 27 32 – 33 1.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Crusaders Mar 04 Crusaders -19.00
2 Fijian Drua vs. Rebels Mar 04 Fijian Drua 0.90
3 Western Force vs. Reds Mar 04 Western Force 0.60
4 Blues vs. Chiefs Mar 05 Blues 8.10
5 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Mar 05 Hurricanes 8.60
6 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 05 Brumbies 17.40

 

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 17

By

Team Ratings for Week 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.01 14.79 -0.80
Munster 9.97 10.69 -0.70
Ulster 8.10 7.41 0.70
Glasgow 4.52 3.69 0.80
Edinburgh 3.42 2.90 0.50
Stormers 3.24 0.00 3.20
Bulls 2.80 3.65 -0.80
Sharks 2.58 -0.07 2.60
Connacht 1.90 1.72 0.20
Ospreys 0.10 0.94 -0.80
Cardiff Rugby -0.93 -0.11 -0.80
Scarlets -1.93 -0.77 -1.20
Lions -3.52 -3.91 0.40
Benetton -3.81 -4.50 0.70
Dragons -6.85 -6.92 0.10
Zebre -17.56 -13.47 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Leinster vs. Lions Feb 26 21 – 13 25.80 TRUE
2 Zebre vs. Bulls Feb 26 7 – 45 -11.40 TRUE
3 Benetton vs. Sharks Feb 27 7 – 29 2.40 FALSE
4 Connacht vs. Stormers Feb 27 19 – 17 5.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 17

Here are the predictions for Week 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Stormers Mar 05 Bulls 4.60
2 Edinburgh vs. Connacht Mar 05 Edinburgh 8.00
3 Sharks vs. Lions Mar 05 Sharks 11.10
4 Ulster vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 05 Ulster 15.50
5 Benetton vs. Leinster Mar 06 Leinster -11.30
6 Munster vs. Dragons Mar 06 Munster 23.30
7 Scarlets vs. Glasgow Mar 06 Scarlets 0.10
8 Ospreys vs. Zebre Mar 07 Ospreys 24.20

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 20

By

Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 6.96 6.78 0.20
Bordeaux-Begles 6.59 5.42 1.20
Racing-Metro 92 6.02 6.13 -0.10
Stade Toulousain 5.86 6.83 -1.00
Clermont Auvergne 5.14 5.09 0.00
Lyon Rugby 5.04 4.15 0.90
Montpellier 4.86 -0.01 4.90
Stade Francais Paris 1.15 1.20 -0.10
Castres Olympique 0.98 0.94 0.00
RC Toulonnais -0.41 1.82 -2.20
Section Paloise -1.94 -2.25 0.30
Brive -3.09 -3.19 0.10
USA Perpignan -4.09 -2.78 -1.30
Biarritz -5.70 -2.78 -2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 129 matches played, 94 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brive vs. RC Toulonnais Feb 27 17 – 10 3.50 TRUE
2 Clermont Auvergne vs. USA Perpignan Feb 27 52 – 12 14.10 TRUE
3 Lyon Rugby vs. Biarritz Feb 27 34 – 15 17.00 TRUE
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Castres Olympique Feb 27 45 – 25 10.60 TRUE
5 Section Paloise vs. La Rochelle Feb 27 16 – 22 -2.00 TRUE
6 Montpellier vs. Stade Francais Paris Feb 28 30 – 3 9.00 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux-Begles Feb 28 12 – 11 6.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Biarritz vs. RC Toulonnais Mar 06 Biarritz 1.20
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Section Paloise Mar 06 Bordeaux-Begles 15.00
3 Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier Mar 06 Castres Olympique 2.60
4 Clermont Auvergne vs. Lyon Rugby Mar 06 Clermont Auvergne 6.60
5 La Rochelle vs. Brive Mar 06 La Rochelle 16.50
6 USA Perpignan vs. Racing-Metro 92 Mar 06 Racing-Metro 92 -3.60
7 Stade Francais Paris vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 07 Stade Francais Paris 1.80

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 19

By

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 4.44 -5.00 9.40
Exeter Chiefs 3.93 7.35 -3.40
Sale Sharks 2.90 4.96 -2.10
Leicester Tigers 2.87 -6.14 9.00
Wasps 1.58 5.66 -4.10
Gloucester 1.14 -1.02 2.20
Harlequins 0.40 -1.08 1.50
Northampton Saints -0.39 -2.48 2.10
London Irish -1.91 -8.05 6.10
Bristol -2.47 1.28 -3.80
Bath -5.90 2.14 -8.00
Newcastle Falcons -7.74 -3.52 -4.20
Worcester Warriors -10.47 -5.71 -4.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 106 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 52.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Wasps Feb 26 31 – 19 -1.00 FALSE
2 Sale Sharks vs. London Irish Feb 26 27 – 27 10.50 FALSE
3 Worcester Warriors vs. Harlequins Feb 26 21 – 29 -6.10 TRUE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Feb 27 35 – 23 5.40 TRUE
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bath Feb 27 25 – 30 3.70 FALSE
6 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Feb 28 31 – 34 0.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 05 Harlequins 12.60
2 Bath vs. Bristol Mar 06 Bath 1.10
3 Gloucester vs. Northampton Saints Mar 06 Gloucester 6.00
4 London Irish vs. Worcester Warriors Mar 06 London Irish 13.10
5 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 06 Saracens 6.10
6 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Mar 07 Exeter Chiefs 5.50

 

February 22, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 16

By

Team Ratings for Week 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.91 14.79 0.10
Munster 9.97 10.69 -0.70
Ulster 8.10 7.41 0.70
Glasgow 4.52 3.69 0.80
Edinburgh 3.42 2.90 0.50
Stormers 2.89 0.00 2.90
Connacht 2.25 1.72 0.50
Bulls 1.55 3.65 -2.10
Sharks 1.42 -0.07 1.50
Ospreys 0.10 0.94 -0.80
Cardiff Rugby -0.93 -0.11 -0.80
Scarlets -1.93 -0.77 -1.20
Benetton -2.65 -4.50 1.80
Lions -4.43 -3.91 -0.50
Dragons -6.85 -6.92 0.10
Zebre -16.31 -13.47 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 76 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Munster vs. Edinburgh Feb 19 34 – 20 12.80 TRUE
2 Glasgow vs. Benetton Feb 20 13 – 3 14.50 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Ospreys Feb 20 29 – 7 21.20 TRUE
4 Scarlets vs. Connacht Feb 20 23 – 29 3.40 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Ulster Feb 21 0 – 12 -7.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 16

Here are the predictions for Week 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leinster vs. Lions Feb 26 Leinster 25.80
2 Zebre vs. Bulls Feb 26 Bulls -11.40
3 Benetton vs. Sharks Feb 27 Benetton 2.40
4 Connacht vs. Stormers Feb 27 Connacht 5.90

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 19

By

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 6.76 6.78 -0.00
Bordeaux-Begles 6.33 5.42 0.90
Stade Toulousain 6.12 6.83 -0.70
Racing-Metro 92 5.55 6.13 -0.60
Lyon Rugby 4.94 4.15 0.80
Clermont Auvergne 4.34 5.09 -0.80
Montpellier 4.27 -0.01 4.30
Stade Francais Paris 1.74 1.20 0.50
Castres Olympique 1.45 0.94 0.50
RC Toulonnais -0.23 1.82 -2.00
Section Paloise -1.74 -2.25 0.50
Brive -3.27 -3.19 -0.10
USA Perpignan -3.30 -2.78 -0.50
Biarritz -5.60 -2.78 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 122 matches played, 87 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brive vs. Montpellier Feb 20 16 – 16 -1.20 FALSE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Lyon Rugby Feb 20 19 – 17 3.10 TRUE
3 La Rochelle vs. Clermont Auvergne Feb 20 31 – 27 9.50 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 20 27 – 22 -2.10 FALSE
5 Stade Francais Paris vs. Biarritz Feb 20 65 – 19 11.80 TRUE
6 RC Toulonnais vs. USA Perpignan Feb 20 29 – 18 9.40 TRUE
7 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Racing-Metro 92 Feb 21 13 – 16 8.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brive vs. RC Toulonnais Feb 27 Brive 3.50
2 Clermont Auvergne vs. USA Perpignan Feb 27 Clermont Auvergne 14.10
3 Lyon Rugby vs. Biarritz Feb 27 Lyon Rugby 17.00
4 Montpellier vs. Stade Francais Paris Feb 27 Montpellier 9.00
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Castres Olympique Feb 27 Racing-Metro 92 10.60
6 Section Paloise vs. La Rochelle Feb 27 La Rochelle -2.00
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux-Begles Feb 27 Stade Toulousain 6.30

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 2

By

Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 13.82 13.43 0.40
Blues 9.26 9.26 -0.00
Hurricanes 7.89 8.28 -0.40
Chiefs 6.43 5.56 0.90
Highlanders 5.68 6.54 -0.90
Brumbies 3.14 3.61 -0.50
Reds 1.80 1.37 0.40
Western Force -4.49 -4.96 0.50
Rebels -6.21 -5.79 -0.40
Waratahs -7.83 -9.00 1.20
Moana Pasifika -10.00 -10.00 0.00
Fijian Drua -11.17 -10.00 -1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 5 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Waratahs vs. Fijian Drua Feb 18 40 – 10 6.50 TRUE
2 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Feb 19 26 – 16 -6.50 FALSE
3 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Feb 19 42 – 32 5.20 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Rebels Feb 19 23 – 5 12.70 TRUE
5 Brumbies vs. Western Force Feb 19 29 – 23 14.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 25 Chiefs 16.40
2 Waratahs vs. Reds Feb 25 Reds -4.10
3 Brumbies vs. Fijian Drua Feb 26 Brumbies 19.80
4 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Feb 26 Crusaders -2.60
5 Rebels vs. Western Force Feb 26 Rebels 3.80
6 Blues vs. Hurricanes Feb 27 Blues 1.40

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 18

By

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 4.44 -5.00 9.40
Exeter Chiefs 3.63 7.35 -3.70
Sale Sharks 3.49 4.96 -1.50
Leicester Tigers 2.47 -6.14 8.60
Wasps 2.29 5.66 -3.40
Gloucester 1.54 -1.02 2.60
Harlequins 0.24 -1.08 1.30
Northampton Saints -0.08 -2.48 2.40
London Irish -2.50 -8.05 5.50
Bristol -3.17 1.28 -4.50
Bath -6.41 2.14 -8.50
Newcastle Falcons -7.24 -3.52 -3.70
Worcester Warriors -10.32 -5.71 -4.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 100 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 20 20 – 24 -4.40 TRUE
2 Harlequins vs. Wasps Feb 20 29 – 24 2.00 TRUE
3 London Irish vs. Saracens Feb 20 32 – 30 -3.10 FALSE
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Exeter Chiefs Feb 20 14 – 15 -7.10 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Feb 20 21 – 22 1.30 FALSE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Bristol Feb 20 19 – 14 -3.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Wasps Feb 27 Wasps -1.00
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Feb 27 Leicester Tigers 5.40
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bath Feb 27 Newcastle Falcons 3.70
4 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Feb 27 Northampton Saints 0.80
5 Sale Sharks vs. London Irish Feb 27 Sale Sharks 10.50
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Harlequins Feb 27 Harlequins -6.10

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 7.21 7.25 -0.00
Sharks 4.56 4.13 0.40
Cheetahs 0.89 -2.70 3.60
Western Province -0.15 1.42 -1.60
Griquas -2.72 -4.92 2.20
Pumas -3.44 -3.31 -0.10
Lions -6.35 -1.88 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Western Province Feb 19 22 – 20 1.90 TRUE
2 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Feb 19 17 – 28 2.30 FALSE
3 Lions vs. Sharks Feb 20 31 – 45 -4.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Sharks Mar 05 Sharks -3.50
2 Griquas vs. Bulls Mar 05 Bulls -5.40
3 Cheetahs vs. Lions Mar 06 Cheetahs 11.70

 

February 15, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 15

By

Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.84 14.79 0.00
Munster 9.87 10.69 -0.80
Ulster 7.71 7.41 0.30
Glasgow 4.92 3.69 1.20
Edinburgh 3.53 2.90 0.60
Stormers 2.89 0.00 2.90
Connacht 1.71 1.72 -0.00
Bulls 1.55 3.65 -2.10
Sharks 1.42 -0.07 1.50
Ospreys 0.18 0.94 -0.80
Cardiff Rugby -0.93 -0.11 -0.80
Scarlets -1.39 -0.77 -0.60
Benetton -3.05 -4.50 1.40
Lions -4.43 -3.91 -0.50
Dragons -6.46 -6.92 0.50
Zebre -16.31 -13.47 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 71 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Leinster vs. Edinburgh Feb 12 26 – 7 17.50 TRUE
2 Glasgow vs. Munster Feb 12 13 – 11 1.40 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Stormers Feb 13 10 – 32 -0.20 TRUE
4 Bulls vs. Sharks Feb 13 22 – 29 6.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Zebre Feb 19 Cardiff Rugby 21.90
2 Munster vs. Edinburgh Feb 19 Munster 12.80
3 Glasgow vs. Benetton Feb 20 Glasgow 14.50
4 Leinster vs. Ospreys Feb 20 Leinster 21.20
5 Scarlets vs. Connacht Feb 20 Scarlets 3.40
6 Dragons vs. Ulster Feb 21 Ulster -7.70

 

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