Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

February 15, 2022

Top 14 Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.03 6.78 0.20
Bordeaux-Begles 6.71 5.42 1.30
Stade Toulousain 6.48 6.83 -0.30
Racing-Metro 92 5.16 6.13 -1.00
Lyon Rugby 4.88 4.15 0.70
Montpellier 4.33 -0.01 4.30
Clermont Auvergne 4.07 5.09 -1.00
Castres Olympique 1.51 0.94 0.60
Stade Francais Paris 0.73 1.20 -0.50
RC Toulonnais -0.31 1.82 -2.10
Section Paloise -2.10 -2.25 0.10
USA Perpignan -3.22 -2.78 -0.40
Brive -3.32 -3.19 -0.10
Biarritz -4.60 -2.78 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 115 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brive vs. Clermont Auvergne Dec 27 27 – 20 -1.30 FALSE
2 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Section Paloise Dec 27 35 – 29 13.30 TRUE
3 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais Paris Dec 27 28 – 29 14.70 FALSE
4 RC Toulonnais vs. Bordeaux-Begles Dec 27 21 – 18 -1.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brive vs. Montpellier Feb 20 Montpellier -1.20
2 Castres Olympique vs. Lyon Rugby Feb 20 Castres Olympique 3.10
3 La Rochelle vs. Clermont Auvergne Feb 20 La Rochelle 9.50
4 Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 20 Stade Toulousain -2.10
5 Stade Francais Paris vs. Biarritz Feb 20 Stade Francais Paris 11.80
6 RC Toulonnais vs. USA Perpignan Feb 20 RC Toulonnais 9.40
7 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Racing-Metro 92 Feb 21 Bordeaux-Begles 8.10

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

A couple of comments for the start of this competition.

I have in the past have had reasonable success rating new teams at -10, and have done that this time. The Waratahs were a total disaster last year and rated -11. I don’t believe they will be worse than the new teams so did adjust their rating to -9. Even this may be viewing them a little negatively. Overall, be aware this is a new competition in a number of ways, and initially I may not achieve very good results.

I have predicted a result for the opening game involving Moana Pasifika, which seems unlikely to go ahead.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 13.43 13.43 0.00
Blues 9.26 9.26 -0.00
Hurricanes 8.28 8.28 0.00
Highlanders 6.54 6.54 -0.00
Chiefs 5.56 5.56 -0.00
Brumbies 3.61 3.61 -0.00
Reds 1.37 1.37 -0.00
Western Force -4.96 -4.96 0.00
Rebels -5.79 -5.79 -0.00
Waratahs -9.00 -9.00 0.00
Moana Pasifika -10.00 -10.00 0.00
Fijian Drua -10.00 -10.00 0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Blues Feb 18 Blues -19.30
2 Waratahs vs. Fijian Drua Feb 18 Waratahs 6.50
3 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Feb 19 Highlanders -6.50
4 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Feb 19 Crusaders 5.20
5 Reds vs. Rebels Feb 19 Reds 12.70
6 Brumbies vs. Western Force Feb 19 Brumbies 14.10

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 4.76 -5.00 9.80
Exeter Chiefs 4.00 7.35 -3.30
Sale Sharks 3.31 4.96 -1.70
Wasps 2.53 5.66 -3.10
Leicester Tigers 2.51 -6.14 8.60
Gloucester 1.54 -1.02 2.60
Northampton Saints 0.10 -2.48 2.60
Harlequins 0.00 -1.08 1.10
Bristol -2.67 1.28 -4.00
London Irish -2.82 -8.05 5.20
Bath -6.44 2.14 -8.60
Newcastle Falcons -7.61 -3.52 -4.10
Worcester Warriors -10.82 -5.71 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 94 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. London Irish Feb 13 32 – 49 7.00 FALSE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Feb 13 24 – 15 6.60 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Feb 13 35 – 20 5.90 TRUE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 13 36 – 12 17.90 TRUE
5 Saracens vs. Harlequins Feb 13 19 – 10 9.30 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Bath Feb 13 41 – 24 12.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 20 Leicester Tigers -4.40
2 Harlequins vs. Wasps Feb 20 Harlequins 2.00
3 London Irish vs. Saracens Feb 20 Saracens -3.10
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Exeter Chiefs Feb 20 Exeter Chiefs -7.10
5 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Feb 20 Northampton Saints 1.30
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Bristol Feb 20 Bristol -3.60

 

February 8, 2022

Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games

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Team Ratings for Postponed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.03 6.78 0.20
Stade Toulousain 6.97 6.83 0.10
Bordeaux-Begles 6.87 5.42 1.50
Racing-Metro 92 5.50 6.13 -0.60
Lyon Rugby 4.87 4.15 0.70
Clermont Auvergne 4.45 5.09 -0.60
Montpellier 4.32 -0.01 4.30
Castres Olympique 1.49 0.94 0.50
Stade Francais Paris 0.30 1.20 -0.90
RC Toulonnais -0.53 1.82 -2.30
Section Paloise -2.40 -2.25 -0.20
USA Perpignan -3.23 -2.78 -0.50
Brive -3.68 -3.19 -0.50
Biarritz -4.60 -2.78 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 111 matches played, 82 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 06 36 – 13 -5.40 FALSE
2 Lyon Rugby vs. Stade Francais Paris Feb 06 26 – 22 11.90 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. Section Paloise Feb 06 29 – 12 12.80 TRUE
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Brive Feb 06 57 – 19 14.20 TRUE
5 RC Toulonnais vs. Castres Olympique Feb 06 10 – 22 5.60 FALSE
6 Biarritz vs. La Rochelle Feb 07 27 – 24 -6.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brive vs. Clermont Auvergne Feb 13 Clermont Auvergne -1.30
2 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Section Paloise Feb 13 Racing-Metro 92 13.30
3 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais Paris Feb 12 Stade Toulousain 14.70
4 RC Toulonnais vs. Bordeaux-Begles Feb 13 Bordeaux-Begles -1.10

 

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 14

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Team Ratings for Week 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.71 14.79 -0.10
Munster 9.92 10.69 -0.80
Ulster 7.71 7.41 0.30
Glasgow 4.87 3.69 1.20
Edinburgh 3.66 2.90 0.80
Bulls 2.28 3.65 -1.40
Stormers 1.83 0.00 1.80
Connacht 1.71 1.72 -0.00
Sharks 0.69 -0.07 0.80
Ospreys 0.18 0.94 -0.80
Cardiff Rugby -0.93 -0.11 -0.80
Scarlets -1.39 -0.77 -0.60
Benetton -3.05 -4.50 1.40
Lions -3.37 -3.91 0.50
Dragons -6.46 -6.92 0.50
Zebre -16.31 -13.47 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 67 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Ulster vs. Connacht Feb 05 32 – 12 9.90 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Lions Feb 06 21 – 13 11.20 TRUE
3 Stormers vs. Sharks Feb 06 20 – 10 5.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 14

Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leinster vs. Edinburgh Feb 12 Leinster 17.50
2 Glasgow vs. Munster Feb 12 Glasgow 1.40
3 Lions vs. Stormers Feb 13 Stormers -0.20
4 Bulls vs. Sharks Feb 13 Bulls 6.60

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 4.79 -5.00 9.80
Exeter Chiefs 3.81 7.35 -3.50
Sale Sharks 2.94 4.96 -2.00
Wasps 2.27 5.66 -3.40
Leicester Tigers 1.98 -6.14 8.10
Gloucester 1.73 -1.02 2.80
Northampton Saints 0.62 -2.48 3.10
Harlequins -0.02 -1.08 1.10
Bristol -1.48 1.28 -2.80
London Irish -4.01 -8.05 4.00
Bath -6.18 2.14 -8.30
Newcastle Falcons -7.61 -3.52 -4.10
Worcester Warriors -10.45 -5.71 -4.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 52.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 06 37 – 21 9.90 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Wasps Feb 06 26 – 27 7.00 FALSE
3 Gloucester vs. London Irish Feb 06 24 – 7 9.30 TRUE
4 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Feb 06 14 – 36 4.10 FALSE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 06 36 – 16 16.30 TRUE
6 Saracens vs. Bath Feb 06 40 – 3 13.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. London Irish Feb 13 Bristol 7.00
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Feb 13 Exeter Chiefs 6.60
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Feb 13 Leicester Tigers 5.90
4 Sale Sharks vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 13 Sale Sharks 17.90
5 Saracens vs. Harlequins Feb 13 Saracens 9.30
6 Wasps vs. Bath Feb 13 Wasps 12.90

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 7.21 7.25 -0.00
Sharks 3.77 4.13 -0.40
Western Province -0.14 1.42 -1.60
Cheetahs -0.20 -2.70 2.50
Pumas -2.36 -3.31 0.90
Griquas -2.73 -4.92 2.20
Lions -5.56 -1.88 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 9 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Pumas Feb 03 41 – 20 1.10 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Feb 03 25 – 38 16.10 FALSE
3 Sharks vs. Western Province Feb 03 35 – 20 7.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Western Province Feb 19 Griquas 1.90
2 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Feb 19 Pumas 2.30
3 Lions vs. Sharks Feb 20 Sharks -4.80

 

February 2, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 13

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Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.71 14.79 -0.10
Munster 9.92 10.69 -0.80
Ulster 7.14 7.41 -0.30
Glasgow 4.87 3.69 1.20
Edinburgh 3.66 2.90 0.80
Bulls 2.57 3.65 -1.10
Connacht 2.28 1.72 0.60
Stormers 1.40 0.00 1.40
Sharks 1.12 -0.07 1.20
Ospreys 0.18 0.94 -0.80
Cardiff Rugby -0.93 -0.11 -0.80
Scarlets -1.39 -0.77 -0.60
Benetton -3.05 -4.50 1.40
Lions -3.66 -3.91 0.30
Dragons -6.46 -6.92 0.50
Zebre -16.31 -13.47 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 43 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Benetton Jan 29 13 – 13 3.80 FALSE
2 Ulster vs. Scarlets Jan 29 27 – 15 15.70 TRUE
3 Cardiff Rugby vs. Leinster Jan 30 29 – 27 -10.50 FALSE
4 Connacht vs. Glasgow Jan 30 20 – 42 6.50 FALSE
5 Ospreys vs. Edinburgh Jan 30 23 – 19 2.80 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Stormers Jan 30 22 – 22 5.70 FALSE
7 Lions vs. Bulls Jan 30 10 – 34 1.10 FALSE
8 Zebre vs. Munster Jan 30 17 – 34 -20.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Ulster vs. Connacht Feb 05 Ulster 9.90
2 Lions vs. Bulls Feb 06 Bulls -1.20
3 Stormers vs. Sharks Feb 06 Stormers 5.30

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.83 6.83 1.00
La Rochelle 7.48 6.78 0.70
Bordeaux-Begles 6.87 5.42 1.50
Lyon Rugby 5.26 4.15 1.10
Racing-Metro 92 4.76 6.13 -1.40
Clermont Auvergne 4.45 5.09 -0.60
Montpellier 4.11 -0.01 4.10
Castres Olympique 0.92 0.94 -0.00
RC Toulonnais 0.05 1.82 -1.80
Stade Francais Paris -0.10 1.20 -1.30
Section Paloise -2.19 -2.25 0.10
Brive -2.94 -3.19 0.20
USA Perpignan -4.09 -2.78 -1.30
Biarritz -5.05 -2.78 -2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 105 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Castres Olympique Jan 30 23 – 10 12.40 TRUE
2 Brive vs. Biarritz Jan 30 33 – 10 7.60 TRUE
3 La Rochelle vs. Montpellier Jan 30 23 – 29 11.00 FALSE
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing-Metro 92 Jan 30 15 – 20 10.60 FALSE
5 USA Perpignan vs. Lyon Rugby Jan 30 23 – 28 -2.60 TRUE
6 Section Paloise vs. Clermont Auvergne Jan 31 28 – 20 -1.00 FALSE
7 Stade Francais Paris vs. RC Toulonnais Jan 31 26 – 24 6.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 06 Stade Toulousain -5.40
2 Lyon Rugby vs. Stade Francais Paris Feb 06 Lyon Rugby 11.90
3 Montpellier vs. Section Paloise Feb 06 Montpellier 12.80
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Brive Feb 06 Racing-Metro 92 14.20
5 RC Toulonnais vs. Castres Olympique Feb 06 RC Toulonnais 5.60
6 Biarritz vs. La Rochelle Feb 07 La Rochelle -6.00
7 Clermont Auvergne vs. Bordeaux-Begles Feb 07 Clermont Auvergne 4.10

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 4.27 7.35 -3.10
Saracens 3.60 -5.00 8.60
Wasps 1.80 5.66 -3.90
Leicester Tigers 1.69 -6.14 7.80
Sale Sharks 1.66 4.96 -3.30
Gloucester 1.28 -1.02 2.30
Harlequins 1.26 -1.08 2.30
Northampton Saints 0.62 -2.48 3.10
Bristol -1.85 1.28 -3.10
London Irish -3.56 -8.05 4.50
Bath -4.99 2.14 -7.10
Newcastle Falcons -7.24 -3.52 -3.70
Worcester Warriors -10.15 -5.71 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 82 matches played, 42 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 51.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Harlequins Jan 29 21 – 17 -2.50 FALSE
2 London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 30 18 – 14 -4.30 FALSE
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester Jan 30 22 – 32 -3.20 TRUE
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Northampton Saints Jan 30 13 – 29 -5.10 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 31 35 – 26 3.80 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Saracens Jan 31 26 – 20 2.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 06 Bristol 9.90
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Wasps Feb 06 Exeter Chiefs 7.00
3 Gloucester vs. London Irish Feb 06 Gloucester 9.30
4 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Feb 06 Harlequins 4.10
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 06 Leicester Tigers 16.30
6 Saracens vs. Bath Feb 06 Saracens 13.10

 

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