AFL Predictions for Week 4
Team Ratings for Week 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 31.57 | 26.06 | 5.50 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 21.12 | 22.83 | -1.70 |
| Brisbane Lions | 20.96 | 26.20 | -5.20 |
| Geelong Cats | 20.94 | 26.75 | -5.80 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 16.95 | 10.24 | 6.70 |
| Adelaide Crows | 16.69 | 15.32 | 1.40 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 10.22 | 6.56 | 3.70 |
| Collingwood | 9.49 | 11.76 | -2.30 |
| Sydney Swans | 8.70 | 0.56 | 8.10 |
| GWS Giants | 5.47 | 9.54 | -4.10 |
| Melbourne Demons | -0.33 | 1.64 | -2.00 |
| St Kilda Saints | -5.07 | -7.63 | 2.60 |
| Carlton Blues | -9.58 | -4.77 | -4.80 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -14.75 | -14.65 | -0.10 |
| North Melbourne | -20.58 | -21.71 | 1.10 |
| Richmond Tigers | -30.85 | -29.44 | -1.40 |
| Essendon Bombers | -32.15 | -27.89 | -4.30 |
| West Coast Eagles | -36.80 | -39.36 | 2.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 21 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Sydney Swans | Mar 19 | 99 – 82 | 24.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Adelaide Crows vs. Western Bulldogs | Mar 20 | 88 – 94 | -3.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Richmond Tigers vs. Gold Coast Suns | Mar 21 | 60 – 128 | -31.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | GWS Giants vs. St Kilda Saints | Mar 21 | 74 – 78 | 26.10 | FALSE |
| 5 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Melbourne Demons | Mar 21 | 118 – 70 | 16.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Essendon Bombers | Mar 22 | 133 – 70 | 22.30 | TRUE |
| 7 | West Coast Eagles vs. North Melbourne | Mar 22 | 111 – 94 | -9.20 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 4
Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geelong Cats vs. Adelaide Crows | Mar 26 | Geelong Cats | 15.20 |
| 2 | Collingwood vs. GWS Giants | Mar 27 | Collingwood | 15.00 |
| 3 | St Kilda Saints vs. Brisbane Lions | Mar 28 | Brisbane Lions | -15.00 |
| 4 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Richmond Tigers | Mar 28 | Fremantle Dockers | 52.10 |
| 5 | Essendon Bombers vs. North Melbourne | Mar 28 | North Melbourne | -11.60 |
| 6 | Port Adelaide Power vs. West Coast Eagles | Mar 29 | Port Adelaide Power | 33.10 |
| 7 | Carlton Blues vs. Melbourne Demons | Mar 29 | Melbourne Demons | -9.20 |
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