Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

March 23, 2021

NRL Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 14.11 10.25 3.90
Storm 13.14 14.53 -1.40
Panthers 10.44 8.88 1.60
Rabbitohs 8.14 7.73 0.40
Raiders 7.23 6.98 0.30
Eels 2.71 1.68 1.00
Sharks 0.57 -0.76 1.30
Knights -1.45 -2.61 1.20
Warriors -1.59 -1.84 0.30
Wests Tigers -5.34 -3.07 -2.30
Dragons -5.39 -4.95 -0.40
Sea Eagles -7.04 -4.77 -2.30
Titans -7.37 -7.22 -0.10
Cowboys -9.12 -8.05 -1.10
Bulldogs -9.51 -7.62 -1.90
Broncos -11.52 -11.16 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Storm Mar 18 16 – 12 -9.90 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Knights Mar 19 16 – 20 0.70 FALSE
3 Titans vs. Broncos Mar 19 28 – 16 6.10 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Mar 20 0 – 28 -14.60 TRUE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Mar 20 12 – 26 -11.70 TRUE
6 Cowboys vs. Dragons Mar 20 18 – 25 0.70 FALSE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Mar 21 6 – 40 -12.80 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Raiders Mar 21 10 – 12 -4.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Storm Mar 25 Panthers 0.30
2 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Mar 26 Dragons 4.70
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Mar 26 Roosters -3.00
4 Raiders vs. Warriors Mar 27 Raiders 11.80
5 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Mar 27 Broncos 1.00
6 Eels vs. Sharks Mar 27 Eels 5.10
7 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Mar 28 Knights 6.90
8 Cowboys vs. Titans Mar 28 Cowboys 1.20

 

March 16, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.90 4.80 4.10
Clermont Auvergne 6.67 3.22 3.50
Racing-Metro 92 6.08 6.21 -0.10
La Rochelle 5.72 2.32 3.40
Bordeaux-Begles 4.07 2.83 1.20
Lyon Rugby 4.01 5.61 -1.60
RC Toulonnais 3.41 3.56 -0.20
Montpellier 1.37 2.30 -0.90
Stade Francais Paris -0.67 -3.22 2.60
Castres Olympique -1.06 -0.47 -0.60
Brive -3.08 -3.26 0.20
Section Paloise -3.69 -4.48 0.80
Aviron Bayonnais -6.73 -4.13 -2.60
SU Agen -14.44 -4.72 -9.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 133 matches played, 89 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. SU Agen Mar 14 48 – 20 12.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Racing-Metro 92 Mar 28 Racing-Metro 92 -7.30
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. La Rochelle Mar 28 Bordeaux-Begles 3.80
3 Brive vs. SU Agen Mar 28 Brive 16.90
4 Castres Olympique vs. Section Paloise Mar 28 Castres Olympique 8.10
5 Lyon Rugby vs. RC Toulonnais Mar 28 Lyon Rugby 6.10
6 Stade Francais Paris vs. Clermont Auvergne Mar 28 Clermont Auvergne -1.80
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier Mar 28 Stade Toulousain 13.00

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.41 14.49 0.90
Blues 8.85 7.80 1.10
Hurricanes 6.15 7.13 -1.00
Chiefs 3.69 4.38 -0.70
Brumbies 2.91 1.47 1.40
Highlanders 2.39 2.70 -0.30
Reds 2.29 1.59 0.70
Rebels -3.59 -3.51 -0.10
Waratahs -7.36 -5.02 -2.30
Western Force -12.76 -13.05 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Force vs. Rebels Mar 12 7 – 10 -3.80 TRUE
2 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Mar 13 39 – 17 16.60 TRUE
3 Brumbies vs. Reds Mar 13 38 – 40 6.80 FALSE
4 Blues vs. Highlanders Mar 14 39 – 17 11.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rebels vs. Waratahs Mar 19 Rebels 9.30
2 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Mar 20 Hurricanes 8.00
3 Reds vs. Western Force Mar 20 Reds 20.50
4 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 21 Crusaders -1.10

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 6.48 7.35 -0.90
Bristol 3.93 1.28 2.60
Sale Sharks 3.13 4.96 -1.80
Harlequins 2.62 -1.08 3.70
Wasps -0.55 5.66 -6.20
Northampton Saints -1.11 -2.48 1.40
Bath -1.78 2.14 -3.90
Gloucester -3.06 -1.02 -2.00
Leicester Tigers -4.19 -6.14 1.90
London Irish -5.01 -8.05 3.00
Worcester Warriors -6.63 -5.71 -0.90
Newcastle Falcons -6.93 -10.00 3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 71 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Wasps Mar 13 37 – 20 7.90 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Mar 14 21 – 20 9.30 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 14 14 – 20 7.00 FALSE
4 London Irish vs. Worcester Warriors Mar 15 20 – 17 6.70 TRUE
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bath Mar 14 19 – 38 1.40 FALSE
6 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Mar 14 17 – 14 -0.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Worcester Warriors Mar 21 Bath 9.40
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 21 Exeter Chiefs 15.20
3 Harlequins vs. Gloucester Mar 21 Harlequins 10.20
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Wasps Mar 21 Wasps -1.90
5 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Mar 21 Bristol -0.50
6 Sale Sharks vs. London Irish Mar 21 Sale Sharks 12.60

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.65 16.52 0.10
Munster 10.20 9.90 0.30
Ulster 8.13 4.58 3.50
Edinburgh 4.58 5.49 -0.90
Glasgow Warriors 2.63 5.66 -3.00
Connacht 2.52 0.70 1.80
Scarlets 0.55 1.98 -1.40
Cardiff Blues 0.06 0.08 -0.00
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -1.73 -2.82 1.10
Treviso -7.15 -3.50 -3.60
Dragons -7.21 -7.85 0.60
Zebre -13.85 -15.37 1.50
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Zebre vs. Leinster Mar 13 31 – 48 -25.50 TRUE
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Ospreys Mar 13 30 – 25 12.10 TRUE
3 Munster vs. Scarlets Mar 13 28 – 10 15.70 TRUE
4 Connacht vs. Edinburgh Mar 14 14 – 15 5.60 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Ulster Mar 14 22 – 26 -9.90 TRUE
6 Treviso vs. Cardiff Blues Mar 15 14 – 29 0.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Munster vs. Treviso Mar 20 Munster 23.90
2 Leinster vs. Ospreys Mar 20 Leinster 24.90
3 Ulster vs. Zebre Mar 20 Ulster 28.50
4 Dragons vs. Glasgow Warriors Mar 22 Glasgow Warriors -3.30
5 Cardiff Blues vs. Edinburgh Mar 23 Cardiff Blues 2.00
6 Scarlets vs. Connacht Mar 23 Scarlets 4.50

 

NRL Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.35 14.53 -0.20
Roosters 12.29 10.25 2.00
Panthers 9.26 8.88 0.40
Rabbitohs 7.91 7.73 0.20
Raiders 7.43 6.98 0.50
Eels 1.50 1.68 -0.20
Sharks 0.37 -0.76 1.10
Warriors -1.15 -1.84 0.70
Knights -1.89 -2.61 0.70
Wests Tigers -3.53 -3.07 -0.50
Dragons -6.08 -4.95 -1.10
Sea Eagles -6.81 -4.77 -2.00
Titans -7.91 -7.22 -0.70
Bulldogs -8.34 -7.62 -0.70
Cowboys -8.43 -8.05 -0.40
Broncos -10.97 -11.16 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 100%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Mar 11 26 – 18 9.80 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Bulldogs Mar 12 32 – 16 8.00 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Eels Mar 12 16 – 24 -9.80 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Titans Mar 13 19 – 6 5.40 TRUE
5 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Mar 13 46 – 4 18.00 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Cowboys Mar 13 24 – 0 19.90 TRUE
7 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Mar 14 30 – 12 13.00 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Sharks Mar 14 18 – 32 -1.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Storm Mar 18 Storm -9.90
2 Warriors vs. Knights Mar 19 Warriors 0.70
3 Titans vs. Broncos Mar 19 Titans 6.10
4 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Mar 20 Panthers -14.60
5 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Mar 20 Rabbitohs -11.70
6 Cowboys vs. Dragons Mar 20 Cowboys 0.70
7 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Mar 21 Roosters -12.80
8 Sharks vs. Raiders Mar 21 Raiders -4.10

 

March 9, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games

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Team Ratings for Postponed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.91 4.80 4.10
Clermont Auvergne 6.67 3.22 3.50
Racing-Metro 92 6.08 6.21 -0.10
La Rochelle 5.71 2.32 3.40
Bordeaux-Begles 4.06 2.83 1.20
Lyon Rugby 3.98 5.61 -1.60
RC Toulonnais 3.41 3.56 -0.20
Montpellier 1.38 2.30 -0.90
Stade Francais Paris -0.64 -3.22 2.60
Castres Olympique -1.06 -0.47 -0.60
Brive -3.11 -3.26 0.20
Section Paloise -3.69 -4.48 0.80
Aviron Bayonnais -7.19 -4.13 -3.10
SU Agen -13.96 -4.72 -9.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 132 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Lyon Rugby Mar 07 20 – 28 -4.10 TRUE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Section Paloise Mar 07 29 – 23 13.50 TRUE
3 Castres Olympique vs. La Rochelle Mar 07 22 – 15 -0.80 FALSE
4 Montpellier vs. Clermont Auvergne Mar 06 22 – 16 0.70 TRUE
5 RC Toulonnais vs. Racing-Metro 92 Mar 07 25 – 21 1.60 TRUE
6 Stade Francais Paris vs. SU Agen Mar 07 40 – 21 18.00 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Brive Mar 07 42 – 17 16.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. SU Agen Mar 14 Aviron Bayonnais 12.20

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

If you happen to check back on my predictions for Week 3 you will see a different margin for the Brumbies against the Rebels, though still a win for the Brumbies. I had that game as a home game for the Rebels. I think it might have been switched because of Covid. The return game on April 18 seems to have been switched also. Super Rugby has it as a home game for the Rebels while some other sites still have it as home for the Brumbies.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.96 14.49 0.50
Blues 8.45 7.80 0.70
Hurricanes 6.28 7.13 -0.80
Chiefs 3.63 4.38 -0.70
Highlanders 3.18 2.70 0.50
Brumbies 2.53 1.47 1.10
Reds 1.94 1.59 0.30
Rebels -2.82 -3.51 0.70
Waratahs -7.39 -5.02 -2.40
Western Force -12.78 -13.05 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 05 23 – 39 7.50 FALSE
2 Waratahs vs. Western Force Mar 05 16 – 20 12.00 FALSE
3 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Mar 06 33 – 16 13.80 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Rebels Mar 06 27 – 24 11.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Force vs. Rebels Mar 12 Rebels -4.50
2 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Mar 13 Crusaders 16.80
3 Brumbies vs. Reds Mar 13 Brumbies 6.10
4 Blues vs. Highlanders Mar 14 Blues 10.80

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 13

By

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 6.97 7.35 -0.40
Bristol 3.41 1.28 2.10
Sale Sharks 3.39 4.96 -1.60
Harlequins 2.13 -1.08 3.20
Wasps -0.03 5.66 -5.70
Northampton Saints -1.37 -2.48 1.10
Gloucester -2.35 -1.02 -1.30
Bath -2.82 2.14 -5.00
London Irish -4.71 -8.05 3.30
Leicester Tigers -4.90 -6.14 1.20
Newcastle Falcons -5.89 -10.00 4.10
Worcester Warriors -6.93 -5.71 -1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 65 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 07 16 – 38 -3.40 TRUE
2 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Mar 08 37 – 19 6.80 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. London Irish Mar 06 33 – 32 4.90 TRUE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 06 31 – 16 13.60 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Gloucester Mar 07 19 – 20 7.80 FALSE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Bristol Mar 07 23 – 24 -6.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Wasps Mar 13 Bristol 7.90
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Mar 14 Exeter Chiefs 9.30
3 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 14 Gloucester 7.00
4 London Irish vs. Worcester Warriors Mar 15 London Irish 6.70
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bath Mar 14 Newcastle Falcons 1.40
6 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Mar 14 Sale Sharks -0.30

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.42 16.52 0.90
Munster 10.00 9.90 0.10
Ulster 8.66 4.58 4.10
Edinburgh 3.98 5.49 -1.50
Glasgow Warriors 3.28 5.66 -2.40
Connacht 3.11 0.70 2.40
Scarlets 0.75 1.98 -1.20
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Cardiff Blues -0.55 0.08 -0.60
Ospreys -2.37 -2.82 0.40
Treviso -6.53 -3.50 -3.00
Dragons -7.74 -7.85 0.10
Zebre -14.62 -15.37 0.70
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 82 matches played, 55 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Munster vs. Connacht Mar 06 20 – 17 12.80 TRUE
2 Zebre vs. Glasgow Warriors Mar 07 20 – 31 -11.50 TRUE
3 Ospreys vs. Dragons Mar 07 20 – 31 12.00 FALSE
4 Ulster vs. Leinster Mar 07 19 – 38 -2.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Zebre vs. Leinster Mar 13 Leinster -25.50
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Ospreys Mar 13 Glasgow Warriors 12.10
3 Munster vs. Scarlets Mar 13 Munster 15.70
4 Connacht vs. Edinburgh Mar 14 Connacht 5.60
5 Dragons vs. Ulster Mar 14 Ulster -9.90
6 Treviso vs. Cardiff Blues Mar 15 Treviso 0.50

 

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