Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

March 9, 2021

NRL Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

I have decided to not give home ground advantage to the Warriors for any games played at their Australian base on the Central Coast of New South Wales. I will treat all those games as being played on neutral ground.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.53 14.53 -0.00
Roosters 10.25 10.25 0.00
Panthers 8.88 8.88 0.00
Rabbitohs 7.73 7.73 -0.00
Raiders 6.98 6.98 0.00
Eels 1.68 1.68 -0.00
Sharks -0.76 -0.76 0.00
Warriors -1.84 -1.84 0.00
Knights -2.61 -2.61 -0.00
Wests Tigers -3.07 -3.07 -0.00
Sea Eagles -4.77 -4.77 -0.00
Dragons -4.95 -4.95 0.00
Titans -7.22 -7.22 0.00
Bulldogs -7.62 -7.62 -0.00
Cowboys -8.05 -8.05 -0.00
Broncos -11.16 -11.16 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Mar 11 Storm 9.80
2 Knights vs. Bulldogs Mar 12 Knights 8.00
3 Broncos vs. Eels Mar 12 Eels -9.80
4 Warriors vs. Titans Mar 13 Warriors 5.40
5 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Mar 13 Roosters 18.00
6 Panthers vs. Cowboys Mar 13 Panthers 19.90
7 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Mar 14 Raiders 13.00
8 Dragons vs. Sharks Mar 14 Sharks -1.20

 

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March 2, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

I apparently missed another rescheduled game. The prediction is given below for completeness.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.56 4.80 3.80
Clermont Auvergne 7.03 3.22 3.80
Racing-Metro 92 6.26 6.21 0.00
La Rochelle 6.25 2.32 3.90
Bordeaux-Begles 4.58 2.83 1.80
Lyon Rugby 3.70 5.61 -1.90
RC Toulonnais 3.25 3.56 -0.30
Montpellier 1.01 2.30 -1.30
Stade Francais Paris -0.71 -3.22 2.50
Castres Olympique -1.58 -0.47 -1.10
Brive -2.78 -3.26 0.50
Section Paloise -4.19 -4.48 0.30
Aviron Bayonnais -6.91 -4.13 -2.80
SU Agen -13.90 -4.72 -9.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 125 matches played, 82 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 RC Toulonnais vs. Aviron Bayonnais Feb 27 14 – 16 14.90 FALSE
2 La Rochelle vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 28 11 – 14 4.50 FALSE
3 SU Agen vs. Clermont Auvergne Feb 28 16 – 52 -9.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Lyon Rugby Mar 07 Lyon Rugby -4.10
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Section Paloise Mar 07 Bordeaux-Begles 13.50
3 Castres Olympique vs. La Rochelle Mar 07 La Rochelle -0.80
4 Montpellier vs. Clermont Auvergne Mar 06 Montpellier 0.70
5 RC Toulonnais vs. Racing-Metro 92 Mar 07 RC Toulonnais 1.60
6 Stade Francais Paris vs. SU Agen Mar 07 Stade Francais Paris 18.00
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Brive Mar 07 Stade Toulousain 16.00

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

My automatic updating of scores failed, sorry. Correct results now I hope.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.76 14.49 0.30
Blues 8.45 7.80 0.70
Hurricanes 6.47 7.13 -0.70
Chiefs 4.38 4.38 0.00
Brumbies 2.86 1.47 1.40
Highlanders 2.43 2.70 -0.30
Reds 1.94 1.59 0.30
Rebels -3.16 -3.51 0.40
Waratahs -6.83 -5.02 -1.80
Western Force -13.33 -13.05 -0.30

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Feb 26 13 – 26 -6.30 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Rebels Feb 26 23 – 21 11.30 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Blues Feb 27 16 – 31 4.80 FALSE
4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Feb 27 61 – 10 13.00 TRUE

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 05 Chiefs 7.50
2 Waratahs vs. Western Force Mar 05 Waratahs 12.00
3 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Mar 06 Crusaders 13.80
4 Rebels vs. Brumbies Mar 06 Brumbies -0.50

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 6.01 7.35 -1.30
Bristol 3.75 1.28 2.50
Sale Sharks 3.27 4.96 -1.70
Harlequins 1.51 -1.08 2.60
Wasps 0.48 5.66 -5.20
Northampton Saints -0.75 -2.48 1.70
Bath -1.85 2.14 -4.00
Gloucester -2.86 -1.02 -1.80
Leicester Tigers -4.58 -6.14 1.60
London Irish -5.03 -8.05 3.00
Newcastle Falcons -5.78 -10.00 4.20
Worcester Warriors -7.27 -5.71 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 59 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 28 17 – 3 12.60 TRUE
2 Gloucester vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 28 22 – 14 9.10 TRUE
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins Feb 28 25 – 22 -3.60 FALSE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Mar 01 22 – 23 6.50 FALSE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Feb 27 25 – 20 1.20 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. London Irish Feb 28 10 – 16 11.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 07 Exeter Chiefs -3.40
2 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Mar 08 Harlequins 6.80
3 Leicester Tigers vs. London Irish Mar 06 Leicester Tigers 4.90
4 Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 06 Sale Sharks 13.60
5 Wasps vs. Gloucester Mar 07 Wasps 7.80
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Bristol Mar 07 Bristol -6.50

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.78 16.52 0.30
Munster 10.45 9.90 0.50
Ulster 9.30 4.58 4.70
Edinburgh 3.98 5.49 -1.50
Glasgow Warriors 3.32 5.66 -2.30
Connacht 2.67 0.70 2.00
Scarlets 0.75 1.98 -1.20
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Cardiff Blues -0.55 0.08 -0.60
Ospreys -1.56 -2.82 1.30
Treviso -6.53 -3.50 -3.00
Dragons -8.55 -7.85 -0.70
Zebre -14.67 -15.37 0.70
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Treviso vs. Connacht Feb 27 11 – 20 -1.30 TRUE
2 Cardiff Blues vs. Munster Feb 27 25 – 27 -5.00 TRUE
3 Ulster vs. Ospreys Feb 27 21 – 7 18.10 TRUE
4 Edinburgh vs. Scarlets Feb 28 40 – 21 8.80 TRUE
5 Zebre vs. Dragons Feb 28 26 – 15 -0.60 FALSE
6 Leinster vs. Glasgow Warriors Mar 01 17 – 19 21.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Munster vs. Connacht Mar 06 Munster 12.80
2 Zebre vs. Glasgow Warriors Mar 07 Glasgow Warriors -11.50
3 Ospreys vs. Dragons Mar 07 Ospreys 12.00
4 Ulster vs. Leinster Mar 07 Leinster -2.50
5 Edinburgh vs. Treviso Mar 08 Edinburgh 17.00

 

February 23, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games

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Team Ratings for Postponed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.13 4.80 3.30
La Rochelle 6.71 2.32 4.40
Racing-Metro 92 6.26 6.21 0.00
Clermont Auvergne 6.24 3.22 3.00
Bordeaux-Begles 4.58 2.83 1.80
RC Toulonnais 3.74 3.56 0.20
Lyon Rugby 3.67 5.61 -1.90
Montpellier 1.03 2.30 -1.30
Stade Francais Paris -0.66 -3.22 2.60
Castres Olympique -1.60 -0.47 -1.10
Brive -2.78 -3.26 0.50
Section Paloise -4.19 -4.48 0.30
Aviron Bayonnais -7.43 -4.13 -3.30
SU Agen -13.13 -4.72 -8.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 122 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brive vs. Bordeaux-Begles Feb 22 25 – 23 -2.50 FALSE
2 Clermont Auvergne vs. Aviron Bayonnais Feb 21 73 – 3 14.80 TRUE
3 La Rochelle vs. Stade Francais Paris Feb 21 16 – 11 12.90 TRUE
4 Lyon Rugby vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 22 31 – 23 0.90 TRUE
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Castres Olympique Feb 20 23 – 20 13.70 TRUE
6 Section Paloise vs. RC Toulonnais Feb 21 29 – 33 -1.20 TRUE
7 SU Agen vs. Montpellier Feb 21 19 – 39 -6.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 RC Toulonnais vs. Aviron Bayonnais Feb 27 RC Toulonnais 14.90
2 La Rochelle vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 28 La Rochelle 4.50

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.49 14.49 0.00
Blues 7.80 7.80 0.00
Hurricanes 7.13 7.13 0.00
Chiefs 4.38 4.38 0.00
Highlanders 2.70 2.70 -0.00
Reds 2.30 1.59 0.70
Brumbies 1.76 1.47 0.30
Rebels -3.51 -3.51 0.00
Waratahs -5.73 -5.02 -0.70
Western Force -13.33 -13.05 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 2 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 100%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Reds vs. Waratahs Feb 19 41 – 7 12.10 TRUE
2 Western Force vs. Brumbies Feb 19 11 – 27 -9.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Feb 26 Crusaders -6.30
2 Reds vs. Rebels Feb 26 Reds 11.30
3 Hurricanes vs. Blues Feb 27 Hurricanes 4.80
4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Feb 27 Brumbies 13.00

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 1

By

Team Ratings for Week 1

I was a bit unsure as to how to deal with Super Rugby this year but will treat it as one competition not separate Australian and New Zealand competitions followed by a joint competition. I will give predictions each week rather than by the designated rounds. Predictions are based on all games played last year in either the initial Super Rugby competition and then the separate country competitions. I am not sure how that will work for the combined competition due to start in May.

This forecast is obviously after the fact but I decided to publish it for completeness.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.49 14.49 0.00
Blues 7.80 7.80 0.00
Hurricanes 7.13 7.13 0.00
Chiefs 4.38 4.38 0.00
Highlanders 2.70 2.70 -0.00
Reds 1.59 1.59 -0.00
Brumbies 1.47 1.47 -0.00
Rebels -3.51 -3.51 0.00
Waratahs -5.02 -5.02 0.00
Western Force -13.05 -13.05 -0.00

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Reds vs. Waratahs Feb 19 Reds 12.10
2 Western Force vs. Brumbies Feb 19 Brumbies -9.00

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 11

By

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 6.31 7.35 -1.00
Bristol 3.64 1.28 2.40
Sale Sharks 2.97 4.96 -2.00
Harlequins 1.90 -1.08 3.00
Wasps 1.40 5.66 -4.30
Northampton Saints -0.30 -2.48 2.20
Bath -2.30 2.14 -4.40
Gloucester -2.77 -1.02 -1.70
Leicester Tigers -4.47 -6.14 1.70
London Irish -5.95 -8.05 2.10
Newcastle Falcons -6.17 -10.00 3.80
Worcester Warriors -7.35 -5.71 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 53 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Gloucester Feb 20 16 – 14 5.50 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Feb 21 12 – 13 12.60 FALSE
3 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Feb 21 24 – 12 2.30 TRUE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Wasps Feb 21 27 – 8 -3.60 FALSE
5 London Irish vs. Bristol Feb 22 34 – 34 -5.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 28 Bristol 12.60
2 Gloucester vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 28 Gloucester 9.10
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins Feb 28 Harlequins -3.60
4 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Mar 01 Northampton Saints 6.50
5 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Feb 27 Sale Sharks 1.20
6 Wasps vs. London Irish Feb 28 Wasps 11.90

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 13

By

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.60 16.52 1.10
Munster 10.72 9.90 0.80
Ulster 9.67 4.58 5.10
Edinburgh 3.52 5.49 -2.00
Glasgow Warriors 2.50 5.66 -3.20
Connacht 1.98 0.70 1.30
Scarlets 1.21 1.98 -0.80
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Cardiff Blues -0.83 0.08 -0.90
Ospreys -1.93 -2.82 0.90
Treviso -5.84 -3.50 -2.30
Dragons -8.05 -7.85 -0.20
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.17 -15.37 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 71 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Leinster Feb 20 29 – 35 -20.30 TRUE
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Ulster Feb 20 13 – 19 0.50 FALSE
3 Scarlets vs. Treviso Feb 21 41 – 17 12.60 TRUE
4 Ospreys vs. Zebre Feb 21 10 – 0 20.70 TRUE
5 Connacht vs. Cardiff Blues Feb 21 32 – 17 8.10 TRUE
6 Edinburgh vs. Munster Feb 21 10 – 22 0.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Treviso vs. Connacht Feb 27 Connacht -1.30
2 Cardiff Blues vs. Munster Feb 27 Munster -5.00
3 Ulster vs. Ospreys Feb 27 Ulster 18.10
4 Edinburgh vs. Scarlets Feb 28 Edinburgh 8.80
5 Zebre vs. Dragons Feb 28 Dragons -0.60
6 Leinster vs. Glasgow Warriors Mar 01 Leinster 21.60

 

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