Search results for super rugby (171)

May 2, 2023

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 11

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Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.21 17.95 -1.70
Blues 13.66 12.34 1.30
Chiefs 12.43 8.81 3.60
Hurricanes 10.23 9.59 0.60
Brumbies 7.51 6.64 0.90
Highlanders 2.35 5.04 -2.70
Reds 0.83 1.89 -1.10
Waratahs -1.87 -2.50 0.60
Western Force -5.56 -5.54 -0.00
Rebels -5.92 -6.19 0.30
Fijian Drua -9.51 -10.50 1.00
Moana Pasifika -11.73 -8.91 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies Apr 28 32 – 27 8.60 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Apr 28 21 – 20 1.30 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Blues Apr 29 14 – 30 -17.90 TRUE
4 Moana Pasifika vs. Rebels Apr 29 33 – 43 0.60 FALSE
5 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Apr 29 34 – 24 -1.30 FALSE
6 Reds vs. Western Force Apr 29 31 – 17 9.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs May 05 Chiefs -6.60
2 Fijian Drua vs. Hurricanes May 06 Hurricanes -14.20
3 Crusaders vs. Western Force May 06 Crusaders 27.30
4 Blues vs. Moana Pasifika May 06 Blues 28.90
5 Reds vs. Waratahs May 06 Reds 6.20
6 Rebels vs. Brumbies May 07 Brumbies -9.90

 

April 25, 2023

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 10

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Team Ratings for Week 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.70 17.95 -1.30
Blues 13.79 12.34 1.40
Chiefs 11.94 8.81 3.10
Hurricanes 10.42 9.59 0.80
Brumbies 7.32 6.64 0.70
Highlanders 2.33 5.04 -2.70
Reds 0.60 1.89 -1.30
Waratahs -1.85 -2.50 0.70
Western Force -5.32 -5.54 0.20
Rebels -6.38 -6.19 -0.20
Fijian Drua -9.65 -10.50 0.90
Moana Pasifika -11.27 -8.91 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Fijian Drua Apr 21 50 – 17 26.50 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Crusaders Apr 21 27 – 43 -17.80 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Waratahs Apr 22 55 – 21 20.00 TRUE
4 Western Force vs. Highlanders Apr 22 30 – 17 -3.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies Apr 28 Hurricanes 8.60
2 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Apr 28 Waratahs 1.30
3 Fijian Drua vs. Blues Apr 29 Blues -17.90
4 Moana Pasifika vs. Rebels Apr 29 Moana Pasifika 0.60
5 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Apr 29 Crusaders -1.30
6 Reds vs. Western Force Apr 29 Reds 9.40

 

April 18, 2023

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 9

By

Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.83 17.95 -1.10
Blues 13.21 12.34 0.90
Chiefs 11.63 8.81 2.80
Hurricanes 10.42 9.59 0.80
Brumbies 7.32 6.64 0.70
Highlanders 2.99 5.04 -2.10
Reds 0.60 1.89 -1.30
Waratahs -1.27 -2.50 1.20
Western Force -5.98 -5.54 -0.40
Rebels -6.51 -6.19 -0.30
Fijian Drua -9.33 -10.50 1.20
Moana Pasifika -11.27 -8.91 -2.40

Performance So Far

So far there have been 44 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Reds Apr 14 28 – 40 -5.80 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Fijian Drua Apr 14 43 – 28 20.70 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 15 17 – 33 3.80 FALSE
4 Waratahs vs. Western Force Apr 15 36 – 16 7.10 TRUE

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Fijian Drua Apr 21 Chiefs 26.50
2 Rebels vs. Crusaders Apr 21 Crusaders -17.80
3 Blues vs. Waratahs Apr 22 Blues 20.00
4 Western Force vs. Highlanders Apr 22 Highlanders -3.50
April 11, 2023

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 8

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Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.83 17.95 -1.10
Blues 13.21 12.34 0.90
Hurricanes 11.18 9.59 1.60
Chiefs 10.87 8.81 2.10
Brumbies 7.60 6.64 1.00
Highlanders 2.99 5.04 -2.10
Reds 0.29 1.89 -1.60
Waratahs -1.81 -2.50 0.70
Western Force -5.44 -5.54 0.10
Rebels -6.51 -6.19 -0.30
Fijian Drua -9.62 -10.50 0.90
Moana Pasifika -10.97 -8.91 -2.10

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 07 38 – 21 32.60 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 07 24 – 52 -1.90 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Apr 08 14 – 29 -3.70 TRUE
4 Rebels vs. Blues Apr 08 17 – 54 -12.40 TRUE

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Reds Apr 14 Reds -5.80
2 Brumbies vs. Fijian Drua Apr 14 Brumbies 20.70
3 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 15 Hurricanes 3.80
4 Waratahs vs. Western Force Apr 15 Waratahs 7.10
April 4, 2023

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 7

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Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.46 17.95 -0.50
Blues 12.31 12.34 -0.00
Chiefs 10.87 8.81 2.10
Hurricanes 10.70 9.59 1.10
Brumbies 6.65 6.64 0.00
Highlanders 3.47 5.04 -1.60
Reds 1.25 1.89 -0.60
Waratahs -1.81 -2.50 0.70
Western Force -5.44 -5.54 0.10
Rebels -5.60 -6.19 0.60
Fijian Drua -9.62 -10.50 0.90
Moana Pasifika -11.60 -8.91 -2.70

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Highlanders Mar 31 17 – 45 -10.20 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Crusaders Mar 31 12 – 25 -10.30 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Rebels Apr 01 38 – 28 -1.50 FALSE
4 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 01 20 – 13 1.50 TRUE
5 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Apr 01 40 – 36 12.70 TRUE
6 Hurricanes vs. Western Force Apr 02 45 – 42 23.20 TRUE

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 07 Crusaders 32.60
2 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 07 Brumbies -1.90
3 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Apr 08 Hurricanes -3.70
4 Rebels vs. Blues Apr 08 Blues -12.40
March 28, 2023

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 6

By

Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.27 17.95 -0.70
Blues 12.58 12.34 0.20
Hurricanes 11.47 9.59 1.90
Chiefs 10.59 8.81 1.80
Brumbies 7.04 6.64 0.40
Highlanders 2.77 5.04 -2.30
Reds 1.43 1.89 -0.50
Waratahs -2.20 -2.50 0.30
Rebels -5.11 -6.19 1.10
Western Force -6.21 -5.54 -0.70
Fijian Drua -10.11 -10.50 0.40
Moana Pasifika -10.89 -8.91 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 22 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Brumbies Mar 24 35 – 17 15.40 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Mar 24 14 – 24 -7.00 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Fijian Drua Mar 25 57 – 24 17.10 TRUE
4 Moana Pasifika vs. Hurricanes Mar 25 0 – 59 -16.00 TRUE
5 Rebels vs. Reds Mar 25 40 – 34 -3.90 FALSE
6 Blues vs. Western Force Mar 26 30 – 17 25.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Highlanders Mar 31 Highlanders -10.20
2 Reds vs. Crusaders Mar 31 Crusaders -10.30
3 Fijian Drua vs. Rebels Apr 01 Rebels -1.50
4 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 01 Chiefs 1.50
5 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Apr 01 Brumbies 12.70
6 Hurricanes vs. Western Force Apr 02 Hurricanes 23.20

 

March 21, 2023

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 5

By

Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.08 17.95 -0.90
Blues 13.10 12.34 0.80
Chiefs 10.42 8.81 1.60
Hurricanes 10.06 9.59 0.50
Brumbies 7.23 6.64 0.60
Highlanders 2.13 5.04 -2.90
Reds 1.87 1.89 -0.00
Waratahs -2.03 -2.50 0.50
Rebels -5.55 -6.19 0.60
Western Force -6.74 -5.54 -1.20
Fijian Drua -9.47 -10.50 1.00
Moana Pasifika -9.48 -8.91 -0.60

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Waratahs Mar 17 34 – 17 17.70 TRUE
2 Chiefs vs. Rebels Mar 18 44 – 25 21.90 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 18 28 – 34 0.10 FALSE
4 Brumbies vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 18 62 – 36 21.80 TRUE
5 Highlanders vs. Western Force Mar 19 43 – 35 15.00 TRUE
6 Reds vs. Fijian Drua Mar 19 27 – 24 15.90 TRUE

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Brumbies Mar 24 Crusaders 15.40
2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Mar 24 Chiefs -7.00
3 Highlanders vs. Fijian Drua Mar 25 Highlanders 17.10
4 Moana Pasifika vs. Hurricanes Mar 25 Hurricanes -16.00
5 Rebels vs. Reds Mar 25 Reds -3.90
6 Blues vs. Western Force Mar 26 Blues 25.30
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March 14, 2023

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.79 17.95 -1.20
Blues 13.40 12.34 1.10
Chiefs 10.62 8.81 1.80
Hurricanes 10.10 9.59 0.50
Brumbies 7.01 6.64 0.40
Highlanders 2.47 5.04 -2.60
Reds 2.41 1.89 0.50
Waratahs -2.08 -2.50 0.40
Rebels -5.75 -6.19 0.40
Western Force -7.07 -5.54 -1.50
Moana Pasifika -9.25 -8.91 -0.30
Fijian Drua -10.01 -10.50 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 10 28 – 7 10.80 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs Mar 10 34 – 27 -0.90 FALSE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Crusaders Mar 11 25 – 24 -23.10 FALSE
4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 11 19 – 25 0.90 FALSE
5 Brumbies vs. Reds Mar 11 23 – 17 8.40 TRUE
6 Western Force vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 11 21 – 18 8.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Waratahs Mar 17 Hurricanes 17.70
2 Chiefs vs. Rebels Mar 18 Chiefs 21.90
3 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 18 Blues 0.10
4 Brumbies vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 18 Brumbies 21.80
5 Highlanders vs. Western Force Mar 19 Highlanders 15.00
6 Reds vs. Fijian Drua Mar 19 Reds 15.90

 

March 7, 2023

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 3

By

Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.68 17.95 -0.30
Blues 13.07 12.34 0.70
Hurricanes 10.43 9.59 0.80
Chiefs 10.17 8.81 1.40
Brumbies 7.18 6.64 0.50
Highlanders 2.92 5.04 -2.10
Reds 2.24 1.89 0.40
Waratahs -1.72 -2.50 0.80
Rebels -6.11 -6.19 0.10
Western Force -6.81 -5.54 -1.30
Moana Pasifika -9.52 -8.91 -0.60
Fijian Drua -10.91 -10.50 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Mar 03 52 – 15 13.00 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Hurricanes Mar 03 33 – 39 -11.60 TRUE
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Chiefs Mar 04 29 – 52 -19.30 TRUE
4 Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs Mar 04 17 – 46 -7.60 TRUE
5 Blues vs. Brumbies Mar 05 20 – 25 6.90 FALSE
6 Western Force vs. Reds Mar 05 20 – 71 -6.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 10 Chiefs 10.80
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs Mar 10 Waratahs -0.90
3 Fijian Drua vs. Crusaders Mar 11 Crusaders -23.10
4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 11 Hurricanes 0.90
5 Brumbies vs. Reds Mar 11 Brumbies 8.40
6 Western Force vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 11 Western Force 8.20

 

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February 28, 2023

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.79 17.95 -1.20
Blues 13.58 12.34 1.20
Hurricanes 10.71 9.59 1.10
Chiefs 9.97 8.81 1.20
Brumbies 6.67 6.64 0.00
Highlanders 3.81 5.04 -1.20
Reds 0.78 1.89 -1.10
Waratahs -2.53 -2.50 -0.00
Western Force -5.34 -5.54 0.20
Rebels -6.39 -6.19 -0.20
Moana Pasifika -9.32 -8.91 -0.40
Fijian Drua -10.09 -10.50 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Feb 24 10 – 31 12.60 FALSE
2 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Feb 24 25 – 31 -5.60 TRUE
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Fijian Drua Feb 25 34 – 36 7.10 FALSE
4 Highlanders vs. Blues Feb 25 20 – 60 -3.80 TRUE
5 Reds vs. Hurricanes Feb 25 13 – 47 -2.20 TRUE
6 Western Force vs. Rebels Feb 25 34 – 27 4.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Mar 03 Crusaders 13.00
2 Rebels vs. Hurricanes Mar 03 Hurricanes -11.60
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Chiefs Mar 04 Chiefs -19.30
4 Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs Mar 04 Waratahs -7.60
5 Blues vs. Brumbies Mar 05 Blues 6.90
6 Western Force vs. Reds Mar 05 Reds -6.10

 

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