RWC 2023 Predictions for Week 5
Team Ratings for Week 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 19.21 | 16.32 | 2.90 |
| Ireland | 18.17 | 15.46 | 2.70 |
| South Africa | 17.93 | 16.35 | 1.60 |
| France | 14.26 | 12.48 | 1.80 |
| Scotland | 8.89 | 6.81 | 2.10 |
| England | 7.25 | 4.22 | 3.00 |
| Wales | 3.01 | 0.75 | 2.30 |
| Argentina | 2.61 | 1.23 | 1.40 |
| Australia | 1.84 | 2.63 | -0.80 |
| Fiji | 0.67 | 0.58 | 0.10 |
| Samoa | -0.96 | -0.50 | -0.50 |
| Georgia | -3.84 | -2.56 | -1.30 |
| Japan | -5.21 | -6.10 | 0.90 |
| Italy | -8.65 | -8.84 | 0.20 |
| Tonga | -12.59 | -11.38 | -1.20 |
| Portugal | -13.90 | -13.61 | -0.30 |
| Uruguay | -14.67 | -15.47 | 0.80 |
| Namibia | -18.85 | -13.18 | -5.70 |
| Chile | -19.97 | -15.13 | -4.80 |
| Romania | -22.18 | -17.02 | -5.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 32 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 84.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uruguay vs. Namibia | Sep 27 | 36 – 26 | 3.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Japan vs. Samoa | Sep 28 | 28 – 22 | -5.40 | FALSE |
| 3 | New Zealand vs. Italy | Sep 29 | 96 – 17 | 23.90 | TRUE |
| 4 | Argentina vs. Chile | Sep 30 | 59 – 5 | 19.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Fiji vs. Georgia | Sep 30 | 17 – 12 | 4.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Scotland vs. Romania | Sep 30 | 84 – 0 | 27.00 | TRUE |
| 7 | Australia vs. Portugal | Oct 01 | 34 – 14 | 14.90 | TRUE |
| 8 | South Africa vs. Tonga | Oct 01 | 49 – 18 | 30.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 5
Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Zealand vs. Uruguay | Oct 05 | New Zealand | 33.90 |
| 2 | France vs. Italy | Oct 06 | France | 29.90 |
| 3 | Wales vs. Georgia | Oct 07 | Wales | 6.80 |
| 4 | England vs. Samoa | Oct 07 | England | 8.20 |
| 5 | Ireland vs. Scotland | Oct 07 | Ireland | 9.30 |
| 6 | Japan vs. Argentina | Oct 08 | Argentina | -7.80 |
| 7 | Fiji vs. Portugal | Oct 08 | Fiji | 14.60 |
| 8 | Tonga vs. Romania | Oct 08 | Tonga | 9.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
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