Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

February 18, 2020

Pro14 Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

I missed posting predictions for this round thinking that there was a longer break between games. Because I use an algorithm and code and no subjective analysis, these predictions are exactly what I would have posted and I am posting them now for completeness.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.11 12.20 3.90
Munster 7.81 10.73 -2.90
Glasgow Warriors 6.69 9.66 -3.00
Ulster 5.09 1.89 3.20
Edinburgh 4.82 1.24 3.60
Scarlets 3.47 3.91 -0.40
Connacht 0.45 2.68 -2.20
Cardiff Blues 0.41 0.54 -0.10
Cheetahs -0.03 -3.38 3.30
Ospreys -3.65 2.80 -6.50
Treviso -4.04 -1.33 -2.70
Dragons -8.38 -9.31 0.90
Southern Kings -14.24 -14.70 0.50
Zebre -14.51 -16.93 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Southern Kings 45 – 0 17.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Zebre Glasgow Warriors 27.70
2 Munster vs. Southern Kings Munster 28.50
3 Leinster vs. Cheetahs Leinster 22.60
4 Scarlets vs. Edinburgh Scarlets 5.10
5 Ospreys vs. Ulster Ulster -2.20
6 Connacht vs. Cardiff Blues Connacht 6.50

 

February 11, 2020

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 3

By

 

 

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.36 17.10 -1.70
Jaguares 7.64 7.23 0.40
Hurricanes 7.59 8.79 -1.20
Chiefs 7.56 5.91 1.70
Highlanders 2.44 4.53 -2.10
Stormers 1.97 -0.71 2.70
Sharks 1.73 -0.87 2.60
Brumbies 1.19 2.01 -0.80
Blues 0.99 -0.04 1.00
Bulls 0.05 1.28 -1.20
Lions -1.08 0.39 -1.50
Waratahs -3.42 -2.48 -0.90
Reds -4.88 -5.86 1.00
Rebels -8.64 -7.84 -0.80
Sunwolves -17.51 -18.45 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Sharks Feb 07 20 – 42 10.90 FALSE
2 Brumbies vs. Rebels Feb 07 39 – 26 14.60 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Feb 08 25 – 15 -5.40 FALSE
4 Waratahs vs. Blues Feb 08 12 – 32 4.80 FALSE
5 Lions vs. Reds Feb 08 27 – 20 10.40 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Bulls Feb 08 13 – 0 5.00 TRUE
7 Jaguares vs. Hurricanes Feb 08 23 – 26 7.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Crusaders Feb 14 Crusaders -9.90
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs Feb 14 Waratahs -0.70
3 Sunwolves vs. Chiefs Feb 15 Chiefs -19.10
4 Hurricanes vs. Sharks Feb 15 Hurricanes 11.90
5 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Feb 15 Brumbies 4.80
6 Lions vs. Stormers Feb 15 Lions 1.50
7 Jaguares vs. Reds Feb 15 Jaguares 18.50

 

February 4, 2020

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 2

By

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.42 17.10 -0.70
Jaguares 8.39 7.23 1.20
Hurricanes 6.84 8.79 -2.00
Chiefs 6.50 5.91 0.60
Highlanders 4.53 4.53 0.00
Brumbies 1.34 2.01 -0.70
Stormers 1.24 -0.71 1.90
Bulls 0.77 1.28 -0.50
Sharks -0.36 -0.87 0.50
Blues -0.63 -0.04 -0.60
Lions -0.77 0.39 -1.20
Waratahs -1.80 -2.48 0.70
Reds -5.19 -5.86 0.70
Rebels -8.79 -7.84 -0.90
Sunwolves -17.51 -18.45 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Chiefs Jan 31 29 – 37 -1.40 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Reds Jan 31 27 – 24 12.40 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Bulls Jan 31 23 – 15 2.40 TRUE
4 Sunwolves vs. Rebels Feb 01 36 – 27 -4.60 FALSE
5 Crusaders vs. Waratahs Feb 01 43 – 25 25.60 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Hurricanes Feb 01 27 – 0 -3.50 FALSE
7 Jaguares vs. Lions Feb 01 38 – 8 12.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Sharks Feb 07 Highlanders 10.90
2 Brumbies vs. Rebels Feb 07 Brumbies 14.60
3 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Feb 08 Crusaders -5.40
4 Waratahs vs. Blues Feb 08 Waratahs 4.80
5 Lions vs. Reds Feb 08 Lions 10.40
6 Stormers vs. Bulls Feb 08 Stormers 5.00
7 Jaguares vs. Hurricanes Feb 08 Jaguares 7.50

 

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January 29, 2020

Pro14 Predictions for Round 9 Delayed Match

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Team Ratings for Round 9 Delayed Match

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.11 12.20 3.90
Munster 7.81 10.73 -2.90
Glasgow Warriors 6.69 9.66 -3.00
Ulster 5.09 1.89 3.20
Edinburgh 4.82 1.24 3.60
Scarlets 3.47 3.91 -0.40
Connacht 0.45 2.68 -2.20
Cardiff Blues 0.41 0.54 -0.10
Cheetahs -0.95 -3.38 2.40
Ospreys -3.65 2.80 -6.50
Treviso -4.04 -1.33 -2.70
Dragons -8.38 -9.31 0.90
Southern Kings -13.32 -14.70 1.40
Zebre -14.51 -16.93 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 69 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southern Kings vs. Cheetahs Jan 26 30 – 31 -8.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9 Delayed Match

Here are the predictions for Round 9 Delayed Match. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Southern Kings Feb 02 Cheetahs 17.40

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 9.84 9.34 0.50
Exeter Chiefs 7.53 7.99 -0.50
Sale Sharks 3.88 0.17 3.70
Northampton Saints 1.67 0.25 1.40
Gloucester 1.37 0.58 0.80
Bath 0.16 1.10 -0.90
Harlequins -1.06 -0.81 -0.30
Bristol -2.00 -2.77 0.80
Wasps -2.00 0.31 -2.30
Leicester Tigers -2.99 -1.76 -1.20
Worcester Warriors -4.94 -2.69 -2.30
London Irish -5.24 -5.51 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 25 13 – 10 8.30 TRUE
2 Bristol vs. Gloucester Jan 25 34 – 16 -0.80 FALSE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Jan 25 19 – 22 9.50 FALSE
4 Harlequins vs. Saracens Jan 25 41 – 14 -9.80 FALSE
5 Northampton Saints vs. London Irish Jan 25 16 – 20 13.20 FALSE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Wasps Jan 25 26 – 30 2.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs Feb 15 Exeter Chiefs -1.70
2 Harlequins vs. London Irish Feb 15 Harlequins 8.70
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Wasps Feb 15 Leicester Tigers 3.50
4 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Feb 15 Northampton Saints 8.20
5 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks Feb 15 Saracens 10.50
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Bath Feb 15 Bath -0.60

 

January 21, 2020

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 1

By

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.10 17.10 -0.00
Hurricanes 8.79 8.79 -0.00
Jaguares 7.23 7.23 0.00
Chiefs 5.91 5.91 0.00
Highlanders 4.53 4.53 0.00
Brumbies 2.01 2.01 -0.00
Bulls 1.28 1.28 0.00
Lions 0.39 0.39 -0.00
Blues -0.04 -0.04 -0.00
Stormers -0.71 -0.71 -0.00
Sharks -0.87 -0.87 -0.00
Waratahs -2.48 -2.48 -0.00
Reds -5.86 -5.86 0.00
Rebels -7.84 -7.84 0.00
Sunwolves -18.45 -18.45 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Chiefs Jan 31 Chiefs -1.40
2 Brumbies vs. Reds Jan 31 Brumbies 12.40
3 Sharks vs. Bulls Jan 31 Sharks 2.40
4 Sunwolves vs. Rebels Feb 01 Rebels -4.60
5 Crusaders vs. Waratahs Feb 01 Crusaders 25.60
6 Stormers vs. Hurricanes Feb 01 Hurricanes -3.50
7 Jaguares vs. Lions Feb 01 Jaguares 12.80

 

January 7, 2020

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 11.56 9.34 2.20
Exeter Chiefs 8.22 7.99 0.20
Sale Sharks 3.19 0.17 3.00
Northampton Saints 2.57 0.25 2.30
Gloucester 2.34 0.58 1.80
Bath 0.49 1.10 -0.60
Wasps -2.38 0.31 -2.70
Harlequins -2.78 -0.81 -2.00
Bristol -2.97 -2.77 -0.20
Leicester Tigers -3.32 -1.76 -1.60
Worcester Warriors -4.55 -2.69 -1.90
London Irish -6.14 -5.51 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Jan 04 48 – 10 7.60 TRUE
2 Gloucester vs. Bath Jan 05 29 – 15 5.30 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Jan 05 31 – 18 3.00 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Worcester Warriors Jan 05 62 – 5 16.90 TRUE
5 London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 06 28 – 45 -8.90 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Northampton Saints Jan 06 31 – 35 0.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 25 Bath 8.30
2 Bristol vs. Gloucester Jan 25 Gloucester -0.80
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Jan 25 Exeter Chiefs 9.50
4 Harlequins vs. Saracens Jan 25 Saracens -9.80
5 Northampton Saints vs. London Irish Jan 25 Northampton Saints 13.20
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Wasps Jan 25 Worcester Warriors 2.30

 

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Pro14 Predictions for Round 8 Delayed Match

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Team Ratings for Round 8 Delayed Match

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.11 12.20 3.90
Munster 7.81 10.73 -2.90
Glasgow Warriors 6.69 9.66 -3.00
Ulster 5.09 1.89 3.20
Edinburgh 4.82 1.24 3.60
Scarlets 3.47 3.91 -0.40
Connacht 0.45 2.68 -2.20
Cardiff Blues 0.41 0.54 -0.10
Cheetahs -0.25 -3.38 3.10
Ospreys -3.65 2.80 -6.50
Treviso -4.04 -1.33 -2.70
Dragons -8.38 -9.31 0.90
Southern Kings -14.02 -14.70 0.70
Zebre -14.51 -16.93 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 68 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Scarlets Jan 04 14 – 16 2.80 FALSE
2 Ulster vs. Munster Jan 04 38 – 17 0.80 TRUE
3 Treviso vs. Glasgow Warriors Jan 04 19 – 38 -3.00 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Ospreys Jan 05 25 – 18 -1.20 FALSE
5 Zebre vs. Cheetahs Jan 05 41 – 13 -10.10 FALSE
6 Leinster vs. Connacht Jan 05 54 – 7 18.80 TRUE
7 Edinburgh vs. Southern Kings Jan 05 61 – 13 23.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8 Delayed Match

Here are the predictions for Round 8 Delayed Match. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Southern Kings vs. Cheetahs Jan 26 Cheetahs -8.80

 

December 31, 2019

Pro14 Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.18 12.20 3.00
Munster 8.55 10.73 -2.20
Glasgow Warriors 6.06 9.66 -3.60
Ulster 4.35 1.89 2.50
Edinburgh 3.98 1.24 2.70
Scarlets 3.04 3.91 -0.90
Connacht 1.38 2.68 -1.30
Cheetahs 0.90 -3.38 4.30
Cardiff Blues 0.84 0.54 0.30
Ospreys -2.91 2.80 -5.70
Treviso -3.41 -1.33 -2.10
Dragons -9.12 -9.31 0.20
Southern Kings -13.18 -14.70 1.50
Zebre -15.66 -16.93 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 61 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Dragons Dec 27 16 – 12 16.00 TRUE
2 Scarlets vs. Ospreys Dec 27 44 – 0 8.80 TRUE
3 Ulster vs. Connacht Dec 28 35 – 3 6.20 TRUE
4 Treviso vs. Zebre Dec 28 36 – 25 18.60 TRUE
5 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors Dec 29 29 – 19 1.40 TRUE
6 Munster vs. Leinster Dec 29 6 – 13 -0.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Scarlets Jan 04 Cardiff Blues 2.80
2 Ulster vs. Munster Jan 04 Ulster 0.80
3 Treviso vs. Glasgow Warriors Jan 04 Glasgow Warriors -3.00
4 Dragons vs. Ospreys Jan 05 Ospreys -1.20
5 Zebre vs. Cheetahs Jan 05 Cheetahs -10.10
6 Leinster vs. Connacht Jan 05 Leinster 18.80
7 Edinburgh vs. Southern Kings Jan 05 Edinburgh 23.70

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 8

By

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 9.72 9.34 0.40
Exeter Chiefs 7.74 7.99 -0.30
Northampton Saints 2.30 0.25 2.00
Gloucester 1.84 0.58 1.30
Sale Sharks 1.73 0.17 1.60
Bath 0.99 1.10 -0.10
Harlequins -1.32 -0.81 -0.50
Wasps -2.12 0.31 -2.40
Bristol -2.40 -2.77 0.40
Worcester Warriors -2.71 -2.69 -0.00
Leicester Tigers -3.89 -1.76 -2.10
London Irish -5.67 -5.51 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Wasps Dec 28 21 – 26 5.40 FALSE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester Dec 29 33 – 26 4.60 TRUE
3 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Dec 29 16 – 14 4.10 TRUE
4 Worcester Warriors vs. London Irish Dec 29 20 – 6 6.60 TRUE
5 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 29 30 – 30 8.00 FALSE
6 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Dec 30 14 – 7 1.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Jan 04 Sale Sharks 7.60
2 Gloucester vs. Bath Jan 05 Gloucester 5.30
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Jan 05 Leicester Tigers 3.00
4 Saracens vs. Worcester Warriors Jan 05 Saracens 16.90
5 London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 06 Exeter Chiefs -8.90
6 Wasps vs. Northampton Saints Jan 06 Wasps 0.10

 

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