Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

September 6, 2022

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 7.93 7.93 0.00
Gloucester 5.92 5.92 0.00
Sale Sharks 4.14 4.14 0.00
Northampton Saints 3.99 3.99 0.00
Harlequins 3.92 3.92 -0.00
Exeter Chiefs 3.67 3.67 0.00
Wasps 0.77 0.77 -0.00
London Irish -1.65 -1.65 -0.00
Bristol -2.43 -2.43 0.00
Saracens -5.00 -5.00 0.00
Newcastle Falcons -8.76 -8.76 -0.00
Bath -9.15 -9.15 -0.00
Worcester Warriors -12.27 -12.27 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Bath Sep 10 Bristol 11.20
2 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Sep 10 Sale Sharks 4.60
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 11 Exeter Chiefs 0.20
4 London Irish vs. Worcester Warriors Sep 11 London Irish 15.10
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins Sep 11 Harlequins -8.20
6 Gloucester vs. Wasps Sep 12 Gloucester 9.60

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 6.42 2.00 4.40
Hawke’s Bay 5.03 5.87 -0.80
Auckland 4.87 4.50 0.40
Waikato 4.77 2.00 2.80
North Harbour 4.15 2.31 1.80
Tasman 2.74 5.94 -3.20
Bay of Plenty 2.39 0.10 2.30
Wellington 1.85 3.58 -1.70
Taranaki 0.55 3.63 -3.10
Otago -1.72 -1.63 -0.10
Northland -4.02 -6.68 2.70
Counties Manukau -5.75 -6.32 0.60
Southland -7.21 -7.01 -0.20
Manawatu -11.74 -5.97 -5.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Manawatu vs. Tasman Sep 02 26 – 36 -12.50 TRUE
2 Northland vs. Auckland Sep 03 23 – 22 -7.40 FALSE
3 Taranaki vs. Waikato Sep 03 6 – 21 -0.20 TRUE
4 Southland vs. Wellington Sep 03 28 – 41 -5.70 TRUE
5 Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 04 32 – 28 3.90 TRUE
6 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 04 27 – 33 -0.50 TRUE
7 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Sep 04 37 – 12 11.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Tasman vs. Wellington Sep 07 Tasman 3.40

 

September 1, 2022

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 6.41 2.00 4.40
Auckland 5.36 4.50 0.90
Hawke’s Bay 5.04 5.87 -0.80
Waikato 4.02 2.00 2.00
North Harbour 3.43 2.31 1.10
Tasman 2.99 5.94 -3.00
Bay of Plenty 1.84 0.10 1.70
Wellington 1.40 3.58 -2.20
Taranaki 1.30 3.63 -2.30
Otago -1.17 -1.63 0.50
Northland -4.51 -6.68 2.20
Counties Manukau -5.03 -6.32 1.30
Southland -6.77 -7.01 0.20
Manawatu -11.99 -5.97 -6.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 31 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Canterbury vs. North Harbour Aug 31 35 – 22 4.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Manawatu vs. Tasman Sep 02 Tasman -12.50
2 Northland vs. Auckland Sep 03 Auckland -7.40
3 Taranaki vs. Waikato Sep 03 Waikato -0.20
4 Southland vs. Wellington Sep 03 Wellington -5.70
5 Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 04 Canterbury 3.90
6 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 04 Bay of Plenty -0.50
7 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Sep 04 North Harbour 11.00

 

August 30, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 25

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Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.26 19.20 -5.90
Panthers 12.38 14.26 -1.90
Rabbitohs 8.59 15.81 -7.20
Roosters 8.23 2.23 6.00
Sharks 5.55 -1.10 6.70
Eels 5.04 2.54 2.50
Cowboys 4.43 -12.27 16.70
Raiders 0.47 -1.10 1.60
Dragons -3.09 -7.99 4.90
Sea Eagles -5.16 10.99 -16.20
Broncos -5.56 -8.90 3.30
Titans -6.48 1.05 -7.50
Bulldogs -8.39 -10.25 1.90
Knights -8.86 -6.54 -2.30
Warriors -10.96 -8.99 -2.00
Wests Tigers -11.45 -10.94 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 128 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 25 6 – 53 -2.80 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Warriors Aug 26 46 – 12 27.90 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Roosters Aug 26 14 – 18 9.70 FALSE
4 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Aug 27 48 – 6 4.40 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Aug 27 16 – 0 17.10 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Aug 27 20 – 10 6.60 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons Aug 28 22 – 24 -6.00 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Knights Aug 28 36 – 26 4.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Storm Sep 01 Storm -5.20
2 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Sep 02 Sea Eagles -0.20
3 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Sep 02 Roosters 2.60
4 Warriors vs. Titans Sep 03 Warriors 1.00
5 Dragons vs. Broncos Sep 03 Dragons 5.50
6 Cowboys vs. Panthers Sep 03 Panthers -4.90
7 Knights vs. Sharks Sep 04 Sharks -11.40
8 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Sep 04 Raiders -8.90

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 5.91 2.00 3.90
Auckland 5.36 4.50 0.90
Hawke’s Bay 5.04 5.87 -0.80
Waikato 4.02 2.00 2.00
North Harbour 3.93 2.31 1.60
Tasman 2.99 5.94 -3.00
Bay of Plenty 1.84 0.10 1.70
Wellington 1.40 3.58 -2.20
Taranaki 1.30 3.63 -2.30
Otago -1.17 -1.63 0.50
Northland -4.51 -6.68 2.20
Counties Manukau -5.03 -6.32 1.30
Southland -6.77 -7.01 0.20
Manawatu -11.99 -5.97 -6.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Tasman vs. Canterbury Aug 26 20 – 52 2.40 FALSE
2 Waikato vs. Manawatu Aug 26 53 – 6 15.90 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Aug 27 25 – 23 4.00 TRUE
4 Auckland vs. Otago Aug 27 35 – 17 7.90 TRUE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Counties Manukau Aug 28 13 – 18 11.00 FALSE
6 Wellington vs. Taranaki Aug 28 31 – 25 1.70 TRUE
7 Northland vs. Southland Aug 28 32 – 19 3.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Canterbury vs. North Harbour Aug 31 Canterbury 4.50

 

August 23, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 24

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Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.10 19.20 -5.10
Panthers 11.89 14.26 -2.40
Rabbitohs 8.32 15.81 -7.50
Roosters 7.39 2.23 5.20
Sharks 5.64 -1.10 6.70
Cowboys 4.70 -12.27 17.00
Eels 2.62 2.54 0.10
Raiders -1.62 -1.10 -0.50
Dragons -2.77 -7.99 5.20
Sea Eagles -3.07 10.99 -14.10
Broncos -3.14 -8.90 5.80
Titans -6.92 1.05 -8.00
Knights -8.42 -6.54 -1.90
Bulldogs -8.47 -10.25 1.80
Warriors -10.47 -8.99 -1.50
Wests Tigers -11.77 -10.94 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 176 matches played, 121 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Aug 18 22 – 26 0.10 FALSE
2 Cowboys vs. Warriors Aug 19 48 – 4 17.60 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Storm Aug 19 12 – 60 -10.00 TRUE
4 Eels vs. Bulldogs Aug 20 42 – 6 11.20 TRUE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Aug 20 6 – 40 -2.10 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Aug 20 72 – 6 16.80 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 21 46 – 26 5.40 TRUE
8 Knights vs. Raiders Aug 21 22 – 28 -3.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 25 Eels -2.80
2 Panthers vs. Warriors Aug 26 Panthers 27.90
3 Storm vs. Roosters Aug 26 Storm 9.70
4 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Aug 27 Raiders 4.40
5 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Aug 27 Sharks 17.10
6 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Aug 27 Rabbitohs 6.60
7 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons Aug 28 Dragons -6.00
8 Titans vs. Knights Aug 28 Titans 4.50

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawke’s Bay 5.25 5.87 -0.60
Auckland 4.79 4.50 0.30
Canterbury 4.49 2.00 2.50
Tasman 4.41 5.94 -1.50
North Harbour 3.72 2.31 1.40
Waikato 2.70 2.00 0.70
Bay of Plenty 2.64 0.10 2.50
Taranaki 1.73 3.63 -1.90
Wellington 0.97 3.58 -2.60
Otago -0.60 -1.63 1.00
Northland -5.04 -6.68 1.60
Counties Manukau -5.83 -6.32 0.50
Southland -6.24 -7.01 0.80
Manawatu -10.67 -5.97 -4.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 23 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. Waikato Aug 19 20 – 34 -5.00 TRUE
2 Taranaki vs. Canterbury Aug 20 16 – 10 -1.10 FALSE
3 Wellington vs. Northland Aug 20 6 – 15 10.40 FALSE
4 North Harbour vs. Tasman Aug 20 35 – 27 0.90 TRUE
5 Auckland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 21 17 – 21 5.80 FALSE
6 Southland vs. Otago Aug 21 32 – 37 -2.70 TRUE
7 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 21 17 – 43 -12.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Tasman vs. Canterbury Aug 26 Tasman 2.40
2 Waikato vs. Manawatu Aug 26 Waikato 15.90
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Aug 27 Hawke’s Bay 4.00
4 Auckland vs. Otago Aug 27 Auckland 7.90
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Counties Manukau Aug 28 Bay of Plenty 11.00
6 Wellington vs. Taranaki Aug 28 Wellington 1.70
7 Northland vs. Southland Aug 28 Northland 3.70

 

August 18, 2022

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Auckland 5.35 4.50 0.90
Canterbury 4.92 2.00 2.90
Tasman 4.85 5.94 -1.10
Hawke’s Bay 4.52 5.87 -1.30
North Harbour 3.29 2.31 1.00
Waikato 2.18 2.00 0.20
Bay of Plenty 2.08 0.10 2.00
Wellington 1.90 3.58 -1.70
Taranaki 1.29 3.63 -2.30
Otago -0.83 -1.63 0.80
Counties Manukau -5.31 -6.32 1.00
Northland -5.96 -6.68 0.70
Southland -6.00 -7.01 1.00
Manawatu -9.95 -5.97 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 17 18 – 13 -3.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Counties Manukau vs. Waikato Aug 19 Waikato -5.00
2 Taranaki vs. Canterbury Aug 20 Canterbury -1.10
3 Wellington vs. Northland Aug 20 Wellington 10.40
4 North Harbour vs. Tasman Aug 20 North Harbour 0.90
5 Auckland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 21 Auckland 5.80
6 Southland vs. Otago Aug 21 Otago -2.70
7 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 21 Hawke’s Bay -12.00

 

August 16, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 23

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Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.99 19.20 -7.20
Panthers 11.56 14.26 -2.70
Rabbitohs 8.65 15.81 -7.20
Roosters 4.72 2.23 2.50
Sharks 3.83 -1.10 4.90
Cowboys 3.18 -12.27 15.40
Eels 1.18 2.54 -1.40
Broncos -1.03 -8.90 7.90
Sea Eagles -1.26 10.99 -12.30
Raiders -1.83 -1.10 -0.70
Dragons -3.67 -7.99 4.30
Titans -6.03 1.05 -7.10
Bulldogs -7.04 -10.25 3.20
Knights -8.21 -6.54 -1.70
Warriors -8.95 -8.99 0.00
Wests Tigers -9.11 -10.94 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 114 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Storm Aug 11 0 – 16 5.10 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Aug 12 42 – 18 0.90 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Aug 12 0 – 26 -1.60 TRUE
4 Roosters vs. Cowboys Aug 13 32 – 18 3.20 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Aug 13 12 – 36 -11.40 TRUE
6 Broncos vs. Knights Aug 13 28 – 10 9.00 TRUE
7 Raiders vs. Dragons Aug 14 24 – 22 5.40 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Aug 14 44 – 24 -4.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Aug 18 Rabbitohs 0.10
2 Cowboys vs. Warriors Aug 19 Cowboys 17.60
3 Broncos vs. Storm Aug 19 Storm -10.00
4 Eels vs. Bulldogs Aug 20 Eels 11.20
5 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Aug 20 Sharks -2.10
6 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Aug 20 Roosters 16.80
7 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 21 Dragons 5.40
8 Knights vs. Raiders Aug 21 Raiders -3.40

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Auckland 5.35 4.50 0.90
Hawke’s Bay 5.04 5.87 -0.80
Canterbury 4.92 2.00 2.90
Tasman 4.85 5.94 -1.10
North Harbour 3.29 2.31 1.00
Waikato 2.18 2.00 0.20
Bay of Plenty 2.08 0.10 2.00
Wellington 1.90 3.58 -1.70
Taranaki 1.29 3.63 -2.30
Otago -1.35 -1.63 0.30
Counties Manukau -5.31 -6.32 1.00
Northland -5.96 -6.68 0.70
Southland -6.00 -7.01 1.00
Manawatu -9.95 -5.97 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Counties Manukau Aug 12 33 – 32 14.20 TRUE
2 Otago vs. Tasman Aug 13 25 – 19 -4.90 FALSE
3 Northland vs. Waikato Aug 13 10 – 16 -5.60 TRUE
4 Canterbury vs. Wellington Aug 13 43 – 10 3.00 TRUE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Aug 14 46 – 6 0.10 TRUE
6 Southland vs. Auckland Aug 14 23 – 24 -9.90 TRUE
7 North Harbour vs. Manawatu Aug 14 64 – 14 12.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 17 Hawke’s Bay -3.90

 

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