Posts written by David Scott (1740)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

June 2, 2026

NRL Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.54 8.77 3.80
Warriors 6.75 -1.18 7.90
Sharks 5.94 7.25 -1.30
Roosters 5.83 9.50 -3.70
Sea Eagles 5.19 0.21 5.00
Dolphins 4.75 1.85 2.90
Storm 2.33 6.96 -4.60
Cowboys -0.29 -2.69 2.40
Rabbitohs -0.37 -5.05 4.70
Broncos -0.77 7.06 -7.80
Raiders -1.33 1.62 -2.90
Bulldogs -4.42 2.13 -6.50
Knights -4.71 -14.06 9.30
Wests Tigers -4.98 -7.26 2.30
Titans -6.75 -8.02 1.30
Eels -6.86 -0.37 -6.50
Dragons -12.84 -6.72 -6.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 100 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles May 29 28 – 22 4.40 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Eels May 30 28 – 22 6.20 TRUE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs May 30 22 – 16 2.70 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Roosters May 30 18 – 4 -1.80 FALSE
5 Broncos vs. Dragons May 31 26 – 30 19.30 FALSE
6 Raiders vs. Cowboys May 31 26 – 12 1.00 TRUE
7 Panthers vs. Warriors May 31 20 – 18 11.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Jun 04 Sea Eagles 9.60
2 Storm vs. Knights Jun 05 Storm 11.00
3 Raiders vs. Roosters Jun 05 Roosters -3.20
4 Cowboys vs. Dolphins Jun 06 Dolphins -1.00
5 Broncos vs. Titans Jun 06 Broncos 10.00
6 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jun 07 Panthers -21.50
7 Sharks vs. Dragons Jun 07 Sharks 22.80
8 Bulldogs vs. Eels Jun 08 Bulldogs 6.40

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 14

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Team Ratings for Week 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 27.34 26.75 0.60
Sydney Swans 23.44 0.56 22.90
Hawthorn Hawks 18.89 22.83 -3.90
Fremantle Dockers 18.52 6.56 12.00
Adelaide Crows 12.11 15.32 -3.20
Brisbane Lions 10.78 26.20 -15.40
Western Bulldogs 9.67 26.06 -16.40
Gold Coast Suns 9.14 10.24 -1.10
GWS Giants 6.61 9.54 -2.90
Collingwood 6.37 11.76 -5.40
Melbourne Demons 0.50 1.64 -1.10
Carlton Blues -0.48 -4.77 4.30
St Kilda Saints -3.05 -7.63 4.60
Port Adelaide Power -10.24 -14.65 4.40
North Melbourne -12.25 -21.71 9.50
Essendon Bombers -30.74 -27.89 -2.80
West Coast Eagles -34.06 -39.36 5.30
Richmond Tigers -40.56 -29.44 -11.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 106 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 St Kilda Saints vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 28 67 – 119 -3.80 TRUE
2 Carlton Blues vs. Geelong Cats May 29 88 – 84 -20.60 FALSE
3 Sydney Swans vs. Richmond Tigers May 30 170 – 56 68.20 TRUE
4 Brisbane Lions vs. Fremantle Dockers May 30 78 – 103 8.30 FALSE
5 Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood May 30 97 – 93 3.10 TRUE
6 Melbourne Demons vs. GWS Giants May 31 70 – 119 1.30 FALSE
7 West Coast Eagles vs. Essendon Bombers May 31 85 – 55 3.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 14

Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Adelaide Crows vs. Geelong Cats Jun 04 Geelong Cats -4.20
2 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Western Bulldogs Jun 05 Hawthorn Hawks 9.20
3 North Melbourne vs. Fremantle Dockers Jun 06 Fremantle Dockers -41.80
4 Gold Coast Suns vs. Brisbane Lions Jun 06 Gold Coast Suns 3.40
5 West Coast Eagles vs. Port Adelaide Power Jun 06 Port Adelaide Power -12.80
6 Sydney Swans vs. St Kilda Saints Jun 07 Sydney Swans 37.50
7 Essendon Bombers vs. Carlton Blues Jun 07 Carlton Blues -30.30
8 Collingwood vs. Melbourne Demons Jun 08 Collingwood 5.90

 

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May 26, 2026

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 16

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Team Ratings for Week 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 13.67 8.29 5.40
Chiefs 12.47 12.36 0.10
Crusaders 8.40 8.41 -0.00
Blues 7.43 8.91 -1.50
Brumbies 4.11 5.59 -1.50
Reds 0.34 1.74 -1.40
Highlanders -3.16 -3.06 -0.10
Western Force -3.92 -6.29 2.40
Waratahs -4.54 -5.84 1.30
Fijian Drua -7.59 -7.64 0.10
Moana Pasifika -12.63 -7.88 -4.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs May 22 36 – 32 0.60 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Brumbies May 22 14 – 21 -3.30 TRUE
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Reds May 23 31 – 33 -10.20 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders May 23 45 – 28 22.40 TRUE
5 Western Force vs. Fijian Drua May 23 19 – 15 9.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 16

Here are the predictions for Week 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes May 29 Hurricanes -0.30
2 Reds vs. Fijian Drua May 29 Reds 12.90
3 Brumbies vs. Moana Pasifika May 30 Brumbies 20.20
4 Chiefs vs. Blues May 30 Chiefs 10.00
5 Western Force vs. Waratahs May 30 Western Force 5.60

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.27 8.77 4.50
Roosters 6.98 9.50 -2.50
Warriors 6.02 -1.18 7.20
Sharks 5.76 7.25 -1.50
Sea Eagles 5.37 0.21 5.20
Dolphins 4.75 1.85 2.90
Storm 1.18 6.96 -5.80
Broncos 0.83 7.06 -6.20
Cowboys 0.68 -2.69 3.40
Rabbitohs -0.37 -5.05 4.70
Raiders -2.30 1.62 -3.90
Bulldogs -4.06 2.13 -6.20
Knights -4.69 -14.06 9.40
Wests Tigers -5.35 -7.26 1.90
Titans -6.75 -8.02 1.30
Eels -6.88 -0.37 -6.50
Dragons -14.44 -6.72 -7.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 93 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Dolphins May 21 22 – 30 -1.70 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Storm May 22 30 – 20 -3.20 FALSE
3 Dragons vs. Warriors May 23 12 – 30 -16.00 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Titans May 23 12 – 10 18.50 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs May 24 30 – 18 3.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles May 29 Sharks 4.40
2 Knights vs. Eels May 30 Knights 6.20
3 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs May 30 Wests Tigers 2.70
4 Storm vs. Roosters May 30 Roosters -1.80
5 Broncos vs. Dragons May 31 Broncos 19.30
6 Raiders vs. Cowboys May 31 Raiders 1.00
7 Panthers vs. Warriors May 31 Panthers 11.20

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 13

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Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 29.22 26.75 2.50
Sydney Swans 20.04 0.56 19.50
Fremantle Dockers 16.00 6.56 9.40
Hawthorn Hawks 15.32 22.83 -7.50
Brisbane Lions 13.30 26.20 -12.90
Adelaide Crows 12.11 15.32 -3.20
Western Bulldogs 9.59 26.06 -16.50
Gold Coast Suns 9.14 10.24 -1.10
Collingwood 6.45 11.76 -5.30
Melbourne Demons 4.23 1.64 2.60
GWS Giants 2.88 9.54 -6.70
St Kilda Saints 0.52 -7.63 8.10
Carlton Blues -2.36 -4.77 2.40
Port Adelaide Power -10.24 -14.65 4.40
North Melbourne -12.25 -21.71 9.50
Essendon Bombers -28.73 -27.89 -0.80
West Coast Eagles -36.07 -39.36 3.30
Richmond Tigers -37.15 -29.44 -7.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 99 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Adelaide Crows May 21 75 – 66 15.30 TRUE
2 Richmond Tigers vs. Essendon Bombers May 22 74 – 56 -13.10 FALSE
3 Fremantle Dockers vs. St Kilda Saints May 22 104 – 74 25.70 TRUE
4 North Melbourne vs. Gold Coast Suns May 23 111 – 105 -13.40 FALSE
5 Geelong Cats vs. Sydney Swans May 23 107 – 80 18.70 TRUE
6 Collingwood vs. West Coast Eagles May 23 92 – 82 61.10 TRUE
7 Port Adelaide Power vs. Carlton Blues May 23 58 – 92 9.60 FALSE
8 GWS Giants vs. Brisbane Lions May 24 166 – 88 -12.40 FALSE
9 Western Bulldogs vs. Melbourne Demons May 24 93 – 90 5.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 St Kilda Saints vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 28 Hawthorn Hawks -3.80
2 Carlton Blues vs. Geelong Cats May 29 Geelong Cats -20.60
3 Sydney Swans vs. Richmond Tigers May 30 Sydney Swans 68.20
4 Brisbane Lions vs. Fremantle Dockers May 30 Brisbane Lions 8.30
5 Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood May 30 Western Bulldogs 3.10
6 Melbourne Demons vs. GWS Giants May 31 Melbourne Demons 1.30
7 West Coast Eagles vs. Essendon Bombers May 31 West Coast Eagles 3.70

 

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May 19, 2026

United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Quarter Finals

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Team Ratings for the Quarter Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 10.37 13.41 -3.00
Bulls 9.88 8.86 1.00
Glasgow 6.52 6.18 0.30
Stormers 6.17 4.17 2.00
Lions 3.11 -1.19 4.30
Connacht 2.88 -1.39 4.30
Munster 2.55 3.65 -1.10
Sharks 2.15 1.29 0.90
Ulster -0.38 -3.24 2.90
Cardiff Rugby -1.74 -2.74 1.00
Edinburgh -3.43 2.67 -6.10
Scarlets -3.61 -0.54 -3.10
Ospreys -3.70 -2.15 -1.60
Benetton -6.97 -2.32 -4.70
Dragons -9.62 -15.66 6.00
Zebre -14.18 -11.02 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 97 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Stormers May 16 22 – 16 -1.90 FALSE
2 Edinburgh vs. Connacht May 16 5 – 26 3.10 FALSE
3 Ulster vs. Glasgow May 16 22 – 26 1.30 FALSE
4 Sharks vs. Zebre May 16 54 – 19 21.80 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Benetton May 17 45 – 19 23.20 TRUE
6 Leinster vs. Ospreys May 17 68 – 14 17.80 TRUE
7 Scarlets vs. Dragons May 17 35 – 35 9.20 FALSE
8 Munster vs. Lions May 17 24 – 17 6.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter Finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow vs. Connacht May 30 Glasgow 10.60
2 Bulls vs. Munster May 30 Bulls 14.30
3 Stormers vs. Cardiff Rugby May 31 Stormers 14.90
4 Leinster vs. Lions May 31 Leinster 14.30

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 25

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Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 13.45 11.56 1.90
Montpellier 5.96 -0.21 6.20
Stade Rochelais 4.99 1.22 3.80
Stade Francais 4.84 -2.17 7.00
Bordeaux Begles 4.67 4.78 -0.10
Section Paloise 4.28 2.21 2.10
Clermont 4.18 1.88 2.30
Racing 92 2.72 1.88 0.80
Toulon -0.53 3.49 -4.00
Lyon -1.01 -0.45 -0.60
Castres Olympique -1.21 0.59 -1.80
Bayonne -2.81 1.48 -4.30
USA Perpignan -4.72 -3.37 -1.30
Montauban -21.94 -10.00 -11.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 131 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. USA Perpignan May 17 37 – 32 16.80 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier May 17 33 – 36 -0.40 TRUE
3 Lyon vs. Bayonne May 17 42 – 35 8.50 TRUE
4 Montauban vs. Stade Francais May 17 25 – 73 -18.50 TRUE
5 Racing 92 vs. Toulon May 17 43 – 28 9.00 TRUE
6 Section Paloise vs. Clermont May 17 24 – 19 6.80 TRUE
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Toulousain May 17 38 – 10 -3.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Montauban vs. Stade Rochelais May 31 Stade Rochelais -20.40
2 Montpellier vs. Section Paloise May 31 Montpellier 8.20
3 Stade Francais vs. Bayonne May 31 Stade Francais 14.10
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon May 31 Stade Toulousain 21.00
5 USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique May 31 USA Perpignan 3.00
6 Clermont vs. Racing 92 Jun 01 Clermont 8.00
7 Toulon vs. Bordeaux Begles Jun 01 Toulon 1.30

 

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Super Rugby Predictions for Week 15

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Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 13.94 8.29 5.60
Chiefs 12.66 12.36 0.30
Crusaders 8.22 8.41 -0.20
Blues 7.43 8.91 -1.50
Brumbies 3.91 5.59 -1.70
Reds 0.72 1.74 -1.00
Highlanders -3.43 -3.06 -0.40
Western Force -3.66 -6.29 2.60
Waratahs -4.34 -5.84 1.50
Fijian Drua -7.85 -7.64 -0.20
Moana Pasifika -13.01 -7.88 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 67 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders May 15 42 – 12 20.20 TRUE
2 Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs May 16 35 – 50 2.90 FALSE
3 Blues vs. Hurricanes May 16 24 – 47 0.20 FALSE
4 Western Force vs. Reds May 16 19 – 14 0.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs May 22 Crusaders 0.60
2 Waratahs vs. Brumbies May 22 Brumbies -3.30
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Reds May 23 Reds -10.20
4 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders May 23 Hurricanes 22.40
5 Western Force vs. Fijian Drua May 23 Western Force 9.20

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 12.04 10.30 1.70
Leicester Tigers 11.97 5.55 6.40
Saracens 10.00 5.03 5.00
Northampton Saints 9.34 -1.47 10.80
Exeter Chiefs 3.35 -4.58 7.90
Bristol 0.62 3.66 -3.00
Sale Sharks -1.92 6.70 -8.60
Gloucester -4.89 4.13 -9.00
Harlequins -5.42 -3.02 -2.40
Newcastle Red Bulls -27.23 -18.45 -8.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol May 16 94 – 33 8.70 TRUE
2 Bath vs. Newcastle Red Bulls May 17 69 – 12 44.30 TRUE
3 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs May 17 41 – 24 -5.00 FALSE
4 Saracens vs. Gloucester May 17 30 – 14 23.00 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers May 18 33 – 47 -5.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Bath May 30 Bath -4.40
2 Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Sale Sharks May 31 Sale Sharks -18.30
3 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester May 31 Northampton Saints 21.20
4 Saracens vs. Harlequins May 31 Saracens 22.40
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Jun 01 Leicester Tigers 15.60

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.27 8.77 4.50
Roosters 6.98 9.50 -2.50
Sea Eagles 6.56 0.21 6.30
Warriors 5.80 -1.18 7.00
Sharks 5.76 7.25 -1.50
Dolphins 4.05 1.85 2.20
Storm 2.17 6.96 -4.80
Broncos 0.83 7.06 -6.20
Rabbitohs 0.60 -5.05 5.70
Cowboys -0.30 -2.69 2.40
Raiders -1.60 1.62 -3.20
Knights -4.69 -14.06 9.40
Bulldogs -5.05 2.13 -7.20
Wests Tigers -5.35 -7.26 1.90
Eels -6.88 -0.37 -6.50
Titans -7.94 -8.02 0.10
Dragons -14.22 -6.72 -7.50

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Bulldogs May 15 38 – 16 8.80 TRUE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Dolphins May 15 10 – 32 -5.00 TRUE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles May 16 18 – 46 -9.20 TRUE
4 Roosters vs. Cowboys May 16 12 – 18 9.50 FALSE
5 Eels vs. Storm May 16 8 – 34 -6.30 TRUE
6 Titans vs. Knights May 17 12 – 36 0.00 FALSE
7 Warriors vs. Broncos May 17 42 – 12 -3.40 FALSE
8 Panthers vs. Dragons May 17 28 – 6 29.00 TRUE

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Dolphins May 21 Dolphins -1.70
2 Bulldogs vs. Storm May 22 Storm -3.20
3 Dragons vs. Warriors May 23 Warriors -16.00
4 Sea Eagles vs. Titans May 23 Sea Eagles 18.50
5 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs May 24 Cowboys 3.10
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