Posts filed under General (2986)

April 1, 2025

AFL Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawthorn Hawks 24.22 21.95 2.30
Brisbane Lions 19.46 22.65 -3.20
Geelong Cats 17.06 15.04 2.00
Western Bulldogs 13.83 18.20 -4.40
Collingwood 12.95 5.39 7.60
GWS Giants 9.70 9.08 0.60
Adelaide Crows 8.68 2.69 6.00
Sydney Swans 8.31 12.60 -4.30
Port Adelaide Power 3.39 7.63 -4.20
Carlton Blues 2.73 5.01 -2.30
St Kilda Saints 2.41 0.89 1.50
Gold Coast Suns 2.15 -6.41 8.60
Fremantle Dockers 1.29 5.99 -4.70
Melbourne Demons -10.70 -0.21 -10.50
Essendon Bombers -11.08 -10.15 -0.90
North Melbourne -27.64 -37.08 9.40
Richmond Tigers -33.44 -31.00 -2.40
West Coast Eagles -35.71 -34.67 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 27 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Essendon Bombers vs. Port Adelaide Power Mar 27 72 – 60 -6.30 FALSE
2 Carlton Blues vs. Western Bulldogs Mar 28 75 – 83 -12.10 TRUE
3 Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats Mar 29 70 – 61 5.60 TRUE
4 Melbourne Demons vs. Gold Coast Suns Mar 29 62 – 120 6.40 FALSE
5 St Kilda Saints vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 29 135 – 53 28.80 TRUE
6 Hawthorn Hawks vs. GWS Giants Mar 29 76 – 64 28.10 TRUE
7 Adelaide Crows vs. North Melbourne Mar 30 114 – 78 49.50 TRUE
8 West Coast Eagles vs. Fremantle Dockers Mar 30 68 – 106 -36.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Collingwood vs. Carlton Blues Apr 03 Collingwood 10.20
2 Geelong Cats vs. Melbourne Demons Apr 04 Geelong Cats 38.80
3 Gold Coast Suns vs. Adelaide Crows Apr 05 Gold Coast Suns 4.50
4 Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Apr 05 Brisbane Lions -41.90
5 North Melbourne vs. Sydney Swans Apr 05 Sydney Swans -25.00
6 GWS Giants vs. West Coast Eagles Apr 06 GWS Giants 56.40
7 Port Adelaide Power vs. St Kilda Saints Apr 06 Port Adelaide Power 12.00
8 Fremantle Dockers vs. Western Bulldogs Apr 06 Western Bulldogs -1.50

 

March 31, 2025

Bogus polls are bogus even for the good guys

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Nature magazine (yes, that one) has a headline 75% of US scientists who answered Nature poll consider leaving.

This is a more honest phrasing that one usually gets in bogus poll headlines, but it’s still bogus.  The ‘poll’ was

Responses were solicited earlier this month on the journal’s website, on social media and in the Nature Briefing e-mail newsletter. Roughly 1,650 people completed the survey.

The other problem with the poll is that ’emigrational ideation’, as one might call it, is a very low bar. Lots of people consider doing things. Many fewer actually do them. People having been claiming they are considering leaving the US for a long time, and we don’t know from the ‘poll’ how the current numbers compare to the usual state of affairs. Remember this cartoon, from 2006:

In fact, I think it’s quite likely that there are more scientists than before actively looking into leaving the US.  Anecdotally, we are getting more enquiries here and more US applicants to advertised positions.  You might think this sort of anecdata is a pretty weak basis for conclusions . You’d be right, but it’s still better than a bogus poll.

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March 26, 2025

Ebikes for brains

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Q: Did you see ebikes are good for your brain? If you’re old.

A: How old?

Q: Over 50

A: That’s not… Ahem. That’s a very inclusive definition of  ‘old’, isn’t it?

Q: Does it work?

A: Who knows? It might.

Q: Does this research show it works?

A: What would we want to check?

Q: Mice or people?

A: Good. People, not mice.

Q: Random allocation of people or just correlations?

A: Yes, that’s right.  This one is … somewhere in between.

Q: What’s in between randomly allocating people and just seeing what they choose? You flip a coin, but with your eyes closed?

A:  Well…

Participants were pseudo-randomly assigned to one of three groups: pedal cycling, e-bike or non-cycling control groups. Priority was given to filling the cycling spots then controls were recruited to match sample characteristics. The control group were recruited after the experimental groups had started to be run so that we could match age and gender in the control group with those participants in the experimental groups. The control group were aware that they would not be cycling during the trial and those in the experimental group were all re-engaging with cycling.

Q: So, comparing people who signed up to do cycling with people who signed up to avoid cycling and other exercise.

A: Yes, but in the context of cycling research, not just random people asked to not do any extra exercise.

Q: And did the cycling group have better brains?

A: They measured a whole lot of things. Eight different multi-question assessments. Some of those improved and some didn’t

Q: Is that what they expected?

A: Not really, no. They expected improvements in a lot of the things that didn’t go up

In line with our predictions, we found trends for improvement in executive function in the Stroop task and letter updating task in both cycling groups compared to baseline and the non-cycling controls. We also found improvement in speed of processing for go trials in the Stop-It signal task only for e-bike participants during the intervention. Measures of memory and spatial functioning did not show an effect of cycling. Furthermore, we found increases in self-reported mental health on the SF-36 health survey for only the e-bike cycling group. Despite strong evidence from previous studies for an increase in well-being after exercise and the impacts of the outdoor environment on this aspect of mental health, we did not find increases on the PWB, SL or PANAS questionnaires.

Q: Could it just be the study was too small to give reliable conclusions?

A: Well, if that’s the explanation, then the study is too small to support press releases and media attention.

Q: So e-bikes are bad?

A: E-bikes are a good form of low-carbon transport, especially in hilly cities with nice climates, and let you get some, but not too much, exercise.   I don’t think they need special effects on the brain to be popular.

Bogus Tesla Polls Are Bogus

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Via the US website Electrek, which does news about electric vehicles and adjacent subjects, a story about bogus polls.

A bogus online clicky poll in Germany got 100,000 clicks and found that 94% of the time that a button was clicked, it corresponded to “absolutely not willing to buy a Tesla”.  Electrek calls this “100,000 Germans”, based on very little evidence.

The poll kept running.  By the time it had 470,000 clicks, only 29% of the clicks corresponded to “absolutely not willing to buy a Tesla”.  Quite a lot of these clicks — 253,000 — came from just two IP addresses in the US. A bit of maths shows that the clicks from the two US addresses made up about three-quarters of the pro-Tesla clicks.

The magazine, T-Online, was forced to the shocking conclusion that its meaningless customer-engagement exercise had been manipulated by someone else’s meaningless customer-engagement exercise.

March 25, 2025

AFL Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawthorn Hawks 25.49 21.95 3.50
Brisbane Lions 19.05 22.65 -3.60
Geelong Cats 17.47 15.04 2.40
Western Bulldogs 14.32 18.20 -3.90
Collingwood 12.95 5.39 7.60
Adelaide Crows 9.78 2.69 7.10
GWS Giants 8.43 9.08 -0.70
Sydney Swans 8.31 12.60 -4.30
Port Adelaide Power 4.81 7.63 -2.80
Carlton Blues 2.24 5.01 -2.80
Fremantle Dockers 1.13 5.99 -4.90
St Kilda Saints -1.11 0.89 -2.00
Gold Coast Suns -1.98 -6.41 4.40
Melbourne Demons -6.56 -0.21 -6.40
Essendon Bombers -12.50 -10.15 -2.40
North Melbourne -28.74 -37.08 8.30
Richmond Tigers -29.93 -31.00 1.10
West Coast Eagles -35.55 -34.67 -0.90

Performance So Far

So far there have been 19 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks Mar 20 60 – 80 -24.30 TRUE
2 Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood Mar 21 70 – 76 3.70 FALSE
3 Essendon Bombers vs. Adelaide Crows Mar 22 100 – 161 -3.80 TRUE
4 Port Adelaide Power vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 22 140 – 68 41.30 TRUE
5 St Kilda Saints vs. Geelong Cats Mar 22 98 – 91 -10.30 FALSE
6 Brisbane Lions vs. West Coast Eagles Mar 23 94 – 75 72.70 TRUE
7 North Melbourne vs. Melbourne Demons Mar 23 125 – 66 -33.40 FALSE
8 Fremantle Dockers vs. Sydney Swans Mar 23 65 – 68 6.00 FALSE

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Essendon Bombers vs. Port Adelaide Power Mar 27 Port Adelaide Power -6.30
2 Carlton Blues vs. Western Bulldogs Mar 28 Western Bulldogs -12.10
3 Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats Mar 29 Brisbane Lions 5.60
4 Melbourne Demons vs. Gold Coast Suns Mar 29 Melbourne Demons 6.40
5 St Kilda Saints vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 29 St Kilda Saints 28.80
6 Hawthorn Hawks vs. GWS Giants Mar 29 Hawthorn Hawks 28.10
7 Adelaide Crows vs. North Melbourne Mar 30 Adelaide Crows 49.50
8 West Coast Eagles vs. Fremantle Dockers Mar 30 Fremantle Dockers -36.70

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 14

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Team Ratings for Week 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.55 12.09 1.50
Bulls 7.64 8.83 -1.20
Glasgow 7.42 9.39 -2.00
Stormers 5.32 6.75 -1.40
Munster 5.08 9.28 -4.20
Lions 3.52 6.73 -3.20
Edinburgh 1.25 0.09 1.20
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Sharks 0.62 -2.94 3.60
Ospreys -0.46 -2.51 2.10
Ulster -1.13 2.52 -3.70
Connacht -1.17 -0.76 -0.40
Benetton -3.33 1.02 -4.40
Scarlets -4.51 -10.65 6.10
Cardiff Rugby -4.87 -2.55 -2.30
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Zebre -8.50 -16.17 7.70
Dragons -14.72 -15.41 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 104 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Lions Mar 22 20 – 17 -4.60 FALSE
2 Glasgow vs. Munster Mar 22 28 – 25 9.20 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Zebre Mar 22 35 – 34 16.90 TRUE
4 Benetton vs. Edinburgh Mar 23 21 – 18 0.30 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Leinster Mar 23 21 – 20 -0.80 FALSE
6 Dragons vs. Ulster Mar 23 30 – 34 -9.20 TRUE
7 Ospreys vs. Connacht Mar 23 43 – 40 7.10 TRUE
8 Scarlets vs. Stormers Mar 23 17 – 29 -2.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 14

Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Edinburgh vs. Dragons Mar 29 Edinburgh 21.50
2 Ulster vs. Stormers Mar 29 Stormers -0.90
3 Connacht vs. Munster Mar 30 Munster -3.70
4 Bulls vs. Zebre Mar 30 Bulls 21.60
5 Connacht vs. Munster Mar 30 Munster -3.70
6 Scarlets vs. Ospreys Mar 30 Ospreys -1.50
7 Sharks vs. Leinster Mar 30 Leinster -7.40
8 Benetton vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 30 Benetton 7.00
9 Glasgow vs. Lions Mar 30 Glasgow 9.40

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 11.82 8.76 3.10
Toulon 6.94 5.32 1.60
Bordeaux Begles 6.16 3.96 2.20
Montpellier 1.56 -0.96 2.50
Stade Rochelais 1.05 4.85 -3.80
Lyon 0.78 -0.18 1.00
Castres Olympique 0.53 -0.09 0.60
Clermont 0.34 0.41 -0.10
Section Paloise 0.31 1.38 -1.10
Bayonne 0.01 -1.69 1.70
Racing 92 -0.15 2.75 -2.90
Stade Francais -1.68 1.86 -3.50
USA Perpignan -4.08 -0.66 -3.40
Vannes -7.88 -10.00 2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 133 matches played, 100 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Clermont vs. Racing 92 Mar 23 21 – 23 6.20 FALSE
2 Lyon vs. Vannes Mar 23 36 – 21 15.60 TRUE
3 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier Mar 23 40 – 38 7.70 TRUE
4 Stade Francais vs. Bayonne Mar 23 31 – 27 4.60 TRUE
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Castres Olympique Mar 23 12 – 12 7.90 FALSE
6 Toulon vs. USA Perpignan Mar 23 40 – 19 16.20 TRUE
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 24 32 – 24 1.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Lyon Mar 30 Bayonne 5.30
2 Castres Olympique vs. Toulon Mar 30 Toulon -0.10
3 Clermont vs. Stade Rochelais Mar 30 Clermont 5.20
4 Montpellier vs. Stade Francais Mar 30 Montpellier 9.00
5 Racing 92 vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 30 Racing 92 0.30
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise Mar 30 Stade Toulousain 16.30
7 Vannes vs. USA Perpignan Mar 30 Vannes 2.70

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 7

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Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 12.15 14.92 -2.80
Chiefs 11.94 11.43 0.50
Crusaders 10.46 8.99 1.50
Hurricanes 8.24 10.97 -2.70
Brumbies 4.98 6.19 -1.20
Reds 2.02 1.35 0.70
Highlanders -2.08 -2.50 0.40
Waratahs -4.41 -5.17 0.80
Western Force -5.74 -6.41 0.70
Fijian Drua -7.36 -7.98 0.60
Moana Pasifika -9.67 -11.25 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Chiefs Mar 21 35 – 50 -18.60 TRUE
2 Highlanders vs. Reds Mar 22 23 – 29 0.90 FALSE
3 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 22 19 – 42 7.30 FALSE
4 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Mar 22 28 – 23 -6.90 FALSE
5 Western Force vs. Fijian Drua Mar 23 52 – 15 2.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Waratahs Mar 28 Hurricanes 16.70
2 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Mar 28 Brumbies 11.10
3 Crusaders vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 29 Crusaders 23.60
4 Reds vs. Western Force Mar 29 Reds 11.30

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 13.68 5.55 8.10
Leicester Tigers 6.03 3.27 2.80
Bristol 5.33 9.58 -4.30
Sale Sharks 4.90 4.73 0.20
Harlequins 1.68 -2.73 4.40
Northampton Saints 1.54 7.50 -6.00
Gloucester 1.15 -9.04 10.20
Saracens -0.50 9.68 -10.20
Exeter Chiefs -2.16 1.23 -3.40
Newcastle Falcons -20.91 -19.02 -1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Mar 22 15 – 39 -18.10 TRUE
2 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 23 52 – 38 14.00 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 23 0 – 33 10.80 FALSE
4 Saracens vs. Harlequins Mar 23 12 – 23 8.20 FALSE
5 Bath vs. Gloucester Mar 24 42 – 26 19.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Harlequins Mar 30 Bath 18.50
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 30 Exeter Chiefs 25.30
3 Gloucester vs. Bristol Mar 30 Gloucester 2.30
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Mar 30 Leicester Tigers 13.00
5 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Mar 30 Sale Sharks 9.90

 

NRL Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.33 9.29 1.00
Panthers 8.05 8.50 -0.50
Sharks 6.11 5.10 1.00
Roosters 5.65 7.44 -1.80
Sea Eagles 4.00 2.97 1.00
Cowboys 1.42 4.11 -2.70
Bulldogs 1.09 0.07 1.00
Broncos -0.04 -1.82 1.80
Knights -0.88 -0.05 -0.80
Warriors -1.10 -1.68 0.60
Raiders -2.98 -3.61 0.60
Dolphins -3.48 -1.96 -1.50
Rabbitohs -4.13 -4.35 0.20
Titans -4.90 -5.50 0.60
Dragons -5.17 -4.55 -0.60
Eels -5.67 -3.02 -2.70
Wests Tigers -8.30 -10.97 2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Panthers Mar 20 30 – 24 5.10 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Roosters Mar 21 14 – 6 -4.40 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 21 26 – 16 0.60 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Mar 22 27 – 12 12.90 TRUE
5 Dolphins vs. Wests Tigers Mar 22 18 – 30 9.70 FALSE
6 Titans vs. Knights Mar 22 26 – 6 -3.00 FALSE
7 Eels vs. Bulldogs Mar 23 8 – 16 -3.20 TRUE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Mar 23 40 – 12 8.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Mar 27 Panthers -9.20
2 Roosters vs. Titans Mar 28 Roosters 13.50
3 Dolphins vs. Broncos Mar 28 Broncos -3.40
4 Dragons vs. Storm Mar 29 Storm -12.50
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Mar 29 Cowboys 7.40
6 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Mar 29 Sharks 8.00
7 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Mar 30 Sea Eagles 12.70
8 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Mar 30 Warriors -3.70

 

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