Posts filed under General (2986)

March 11, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 13

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Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.75 12.09 1.70
Glasgow 8.10 9.39 -1.30
Bulls 7.44 8.83 -1.40
Munster 4.39 9.28 -4.90
Lions 4.35 6.73 -2.40
Stormers 4.23 6.75 -2.50
Sharks 1.78 -2.94 4.70
Edinburgh 1.54 0.09 1.50
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Ospreys -0.01 -2.51 2.50
Ulster -0.55 2.52 -3.10
Connacht -1.62 -0.76 -0.90
Scarlets -3.42 -10.65 7.20
Benetton -3.62 1.02 -4.60
Cardiff Rugby -5.70 -2.55 -3.10
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Zebre -9.65 -16.17 6.50
Dragons -15.29 -15.41 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 96 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Lions Mar 09 25 – 22 -0.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Lions Mar 22 Lions -4.60
2 Glasgow vs. Munster Mar 22 Glasgow 9.20
3 Sharks vs. Zebre Mar 22 Sharks 16.90
4 Benetton vs. Edinburgh Mar 23 Benetton 0.30
5 Bulls vs. Leinster Mar 23 Leinster -0.80
6 Dragons vs. Ulster Mar 23 Ulster -9.20
7 Ospreys vs. Connacht Mar 23 Ospreys 7.10
8 Scarlets vs. Stormers Mar 23 Stormers -2.20

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 13.11 14.92 -1.80
Chiefs 12.32 11.43 0.90
Crusaders 9.25 8.99 0.30
Hurricanes 8.59 10.97 -2.40
Brumbies 5.34 6.19 -0.90
Reds 1.06 1.35 -0.30
Highlanders -1.95 -2.50 0.60
Waratahs -4.44 -5.17 0.70
Fijian Drua -6.03 -7.98 1.90
Western Force -6.78 -6.41 -0.40
Moana Pasifika -9.93 -11.25 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 20 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Brumbies Mar 07 20 – 21 12.90 FALSE
2 Fijian Drua vs. Chiefs Mar 08 28 – 24 -15.90 FALSE
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Hurricanes Mar 08 40 – 31 -16.90 FALSE
4 Waratahs vs. Western Force Mar 08 34 – 10 4.30 TRUE
5 Crusaders vs. Reds Mar 09 43 – 19 11.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 14 Hurricanes -7.00
2 Brumbies vs. Fijian Drua Mar 14 Brumbies 14.90
3 Crusaders vs. Western Force Mar 15 Crusaders 20.00
4 Chiefs vs. Blues Mar 15 Chiefs 2.70
5 Reds vs. Waratahs Mar 15 Reds 9.00

 

NRL Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

Unfortunately my predictions for the first round were incorrect because I had the Dolphins playing at home, when in fact the Rabbitohs were at home. The results below use the correct home ground and show the Rabbitohs as predicted winners rather than the Dolphins.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.26 9.29 1.00
Panthers 8.71 8.50 0.20
Roosters 5.66 7.44 -1.80
Sharks 4.89 5.10 -0.20
Sea Eagles 4.13 2.97 1.20
Cowboys 2.96 4.11 -1.20
Bulldogs 0.43 0.07 0.40
Broncos -0.04 -1.82 1.80
Knights -0.38 -0.05 -0.30
Dolphins -2.07 -1.96 -0.10
Raiders -2.59 -3.61 1.00
Warriors -2.69 -1.68 -1.00
Eels -3.99 -3.02 -1.00
Rabbitohs -4.23 -4.35 0.10
Dragons -4.90 -4.55 -0.30
Titans -5.50 -5.50 -0.00
Wests Tigers -10.64 -10.97 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Warriors Mar 02 30 – 8 -1.90 FALSE
2 Panthers vs. Sharks Mar 02 28 – 22 3.40 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Broncos Mar 06 14 – 50 12.30 FALSE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Mar 07 8 – 10 -7.90 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Dolphins Mar 07 16 – 14 0.60 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Mar 08 20 – 28 -1.60 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Mar 08 42 – 12 1.90 TRUE
8 Storm vs. Eels Mar 09 56 – 18 15.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Knights vs. Dolphins Mar 13 Knights 4.70
2 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Mar 14 Sea Eagles -3.30
3 Panthers vs. Roosters Mar 14 Panthers 6.00
4 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Mar 15 Dragons 2.30
5 Cowboys vs. Sharks Mar 15 Cowboys 1.10
6 Raiders vs. Broncos Mar 15 Raiders 0.40
7 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Mar 16 Eels 9.60
8 Bulldogs vs. Titans Mar 16 Bulldogs 8.90

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawthorn Hawks 23.59 21.95 1.60
Brisbane Lions 22.65 22.65 -0.00
Western Bulldogs 18.20 18.20 0.00
Geelong Cats 15.04 15.04 0.00
GWS Giants 11.68 9.08 2.60
Sydney Swans 10.97 12.60 -1.60
Port Adelaide Power 7.63 7.63 -0.00
Fremantle Dockers 5.99 5.99 0.00
Carlton Blues 5.01 5.01 -0.00
Collingwood 2.78 5.39 -2.60
Adelaide Crows 2.69 2.69 -0.00
St Kilda Saints 0.89 0.89 0.00
Melbourne Demons -0.21 -0.21 -0.00
Gold Coast Suns -6.41 -6.41 0.00
Essendon Bombers -10.15 -10.15 -0.00
Richmond Tigers -31.00 -31.00 0.00
West Coast Eagles -34.67 -34.67 -0.00
North Melbourne -37.08 -37.08 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 2 matches played, 1 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sydney Swans vs. Hawthorn Hawks Mar 07 76 – 96 1.60 FALSE
2 GWS Giants vs. Collingwood Mar 09 104 – 52 14.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Mar 13 Carlton Blues -36.00
2 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Mar 14 Hawthorn Hawks 33.70
3 Geelong Cats vs. Fremantle Dockers Mar 15 Geelong Cats 20.00
4 Sydney Swans vs. Brisbane Lions Mar 15 Brisbane Lions -0.70
5 Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide Power Mar 15 Collingwood 6.20
6 Western Bulldogs vs. North Melbourne Mar 15 Western Bulldogs 55.30
7 Adelaide Crows vs. St Kilda Saints Mar 16 Adelaide Crows 12.80
8 Melbourne Demons vs. GWS Giants Mar 16 GWS Giants -0.90
9 West Coast Eagles vs. Gold Coast Suns Mar 16 Gold Coast Suns -17.30

 

March 7, 2025

Painkillers and dementia

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Q: Did you see that ibuprofen prevents dementia?

A: No

Q: Common 3p anti-inflammatory pill ‘can help prevent dementia’ says new study.  And Prolonged Use Of Anti-Inflammatory Pills May Help Prevent Dementia: Study. And…

A: No

Q: Those quotes in the first headline imply someone really said it

A: Well, that used to be the convention, but apparently not in this case.

Q: Mice?

A: No, not mice. People

Q: Correlations, or randomised trials?

A: Correlations

Q: Is there a paper?

A:  There is a paper.

Q: Has anyone looked at this correlation before?

A: Oh my yes. So many people. There are even randomised trials. The Cochrane Review says “no evidence that it works, and it may be dangerous”

Q: What do the scientists say about that?

A: The trials were too short to show the effect, or they started too late in the disease process.

Q: Is that possible?

A: Sure, it’s possible. Lots of things are possible.

Q: So you don’t believe the paper?

A: It’s a perfectly reasonable paper for consenting scientists in private (I know some of the authors), but it doesn’t justify the recommendation of long-term treatment with these drugs for the prevention of dementia, especially given the potential adverse effects

Q: Well, that’s your opinion. What do the scientists who wrote the paper say?

A: Our results.. do not justify the recommendation of long-term treatment with NSAIDs for the prevention of dementia, given its potential adverse effects. 

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Age distributions

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A question from a reader, based on  this NZ Herald article
“Bowel cancer does not discriminate on race. Māori and Pacific peoples have a similar risk of developing bowel cancer compared to other population groups at a given age.
“It was true that a higher proportion of bowel cancers occur in Māori and Pacific peoples at a younger age, but that is because the overall demographics of those groups are younger. It has always been age that determines bowel cancer risk, not race”

I thought that this required more explanation. Proportion at an age does not seem to me to depend on the demographics of those ages

It’s a good question.  The minister is plausibly correct that the younger age at diagnosis for Māori and Pacific Peoples is driven substantially by demographics.   That is, one reason that few very elderly Māori get diagnosed with bowel cancer is that there aren’t many very elderly Māori.  Fewer Māori make it to be very elderly, and also the Māori population is increasing both because of higher birth rate and because more people are now identifying as Māori to the healthcare system.   If you have the same age-specific incidence rates in two groups, but one group averages younger, the incidence in the younger group will tend to be at younger ages.

That’s not the whole story, or even most of it, for this decision.  The age distribution being quoted is age at diagnosis (because that’s what you have for cancer), but diagnosis isn’t equally distributed. According to the HQSC atlas of health care variation, Māori are more likely to be diagnosed with bowel cancer following emergency presentation, and more likely to die within two years of diagnosis. This means there’s a good case that Māori are more underdiagnosed than New Zealand Europeans.   On the other hand, a lot of the problem with underdiagnosis is not being tested. If people end up just doing one test when they become eligible, and then not bothering later, the optimal age for a single test is more like 60 than 50.   And, as a general principle,  if you want to spend public money to improve health, you typically will do better by spending it on people who are less healthy and have worse access to health care.

In any case, while the headline Bowel cancer screening eligibility age to be lowered for everyone is technically true (since the lower-age screening pilot has already been stopped), it seems to miss the point a little.

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March 4, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Delayed Games

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Team Ratings for Delayed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.75 12.09 1.70
Glasgow 8.10 9.39 -1.30
Bulls 7.44 8.83 -1.40
Lions 4.79 6.73 -1.90
Munster 4.39 9.28 -4.90
Stormers 4.23 6.75 -2.50
Edinburgh 1.54 0.09 1.50
Sharks 1.35 -2.94 4.30
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Ospreys -0.01 -2.51 2.50
Ulster -0.55 2.52 -3.10
Connacht -1.62 -0.76 -0.90
Scarlets -3.42 -10.65 7.20
Benetton -3.62 1.02 -4.60
Cardiff Rugby -5.70 -2.55 -3.10
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Zebre -9.65 -16.17 6.50
Dragons -15.29 -15.41 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 95 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Munster vs. Edinburgh Mar 01 28 – 34 10.80 FALSE
2 Zebre vs. Dragons Mar 01 31 – 21 11.50 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Sharks Mar 02 38 – 14 3.00 TRUE
4 Bulls vs. Stormers Mar 02 16 – 19 7.30 FALSE
5 Leinster vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 02 42 – 24 26.90 TRUE
6 Ulster vs. Scarlets Mar 02 30 – 28 10.20 TRUE
7 Connacht vs. Benetton Mar 02 38 – 30 7.40 TRUE
8 Glasgow vs. Ospreys Mar 02 31 – 32 16.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Delayed Games

Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Lions Mar 09 Lions -0.90

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.23 8.76 3.50
Toulon 6.66 5.32 1.30
Bordeaux Begles 5.80 3.96 1.80
Stade Rochelais 1.37 4.85 -3.50
Montpellier 1.24 -0.96 2.20
Lyon 0.84 -0.18 1.00
Clermont 0.68 0.41 0.30
Section Paloise 0.63 1.38 -0.80
Castres Olympique 0.20 -0.09 0.30
Bayonne -0.04 -1.69 1.60
Racing 92 -0.50 2.75 -3.30
Stade Francais -1.66 1.86 -3.50
USA Perpignan -3.80 -0.66 -3.10
Vannes -7.92 -10.00 2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 95 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lyon vs. Toulon Mar 02 27 – 20 1.10 TRUE
2 Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique Mar 02 21 – 17 7.90 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. Section Paloise Mar 02 29 – 47 6.60 FALSE
4 Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais Mar 02 22 – 17 3.80 TRUE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Vannes Mar 02 63 – 21 24.20 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 02 17 – 29 -2.20 TRUE
7 Bayonne vs. Clermont Mar 03 31 – 18 6.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Clermont vs. Racing 92 Mar 23 Clermont 6.20
2 Lyon vs. Vannes Mar 23 Lyon 15.60
3 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier Mar 23 Section Paloise 7.70
4 Stade Francais vs. Bayonne Mar 23 Stade Francais 4.60
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Castres Olympique Mar 23 Stade Rochelais 7.90
6 Toulon vs. USA Perpignan Mar 23 Toulon 16.20
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 24 Bordeaux Begles 1.10

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 13.68 14.92 -1.20
Chiefs 13.08 11.43 1.70
Hurricanes 9.54 10.97 -1.40
Crusaders 8.71 8.99 -0.30
Brumbies 4.77 6.19 -1.40
Reds 1.60 1.35 0.30
Highlanders -1.95 -2.50 0.60
Waratahs -5.20 -5.17 -0.00
Western Force -6.03 -6.41 0.40
Fijian Drua -6.80 -7.98 1.20
Moana Pasifika -10.87 -11.25 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Highlanders Feb 28 29 – 31 -6.00 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Fijian Drua Feb 28 29 – 24 5.10 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Mar 01 49 – 34 11.90 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 01 29 – 33 -0.10 TRUE
5 Western Force vs. Reds Mar 01 24 – 28 -4.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Brumbies Mar 07 Blues 12.90
2 Fijian Drua vs. Chiefs Mar 08 Chiefs -15.90
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Hurricanes Mar 08 Hurricanes -16.90
4 Waratahs vs. Western Force Mar 08 Waratahs 4.30
5 Crusaders vs. Reds Mar 09 Crusaders 11.10

 

AFL Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brisbane Lions 22.65 22.65 -0.00
Hawthorn Hawks 21.95 21.95 -0.00
Western Bulldogs 18.20 18.20 0.00
Geelong Cats 15.04 15.04 0.00
Sydney Swans 12.60 12.60 -0.00
GWS Giants 9.08 9.08 -0.00
Port Adelaide Power 7.63 7.63 -0.00
Fremantle Dockers 5.99 5.99 0.00
Collingwood 5.39 5.39 0.00
Carlton Blues 5.01 5.01 -0.00
Adelaide Crows 2.69 2.69 -0.00
St Kilda Saints 0.89 0.89 0.00
Melbourne Demons -0.21 -0.21 -0.00
Gold Coast Suns -6.41 -6.41 0.00
Essendon Bombers -10.15 -10.15 -0.00
Richmond Tigers -31.00 -31.00 0.00
West Coast Eagles -34.67 -34.67 -0.00
North Melbourne -37.08 -37.08 0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats Mar 06 Brisbane Lions 11.60
2 Sydney Swans vs. Hawthorn Hawks Mar 07 Sydney Swans 1.60
3 Gold Coast Suns vs. Essendon Bombers Mar 08 Gold Coast Suns 14.70
4 GWS Giants vs. Collingwood Mar 09 GWS Giants 14.70

 

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