Posts filed under Sports statistics (1772)

September 6, 2024

Top 14 Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.76 8.76 -0.00
Toulon 5.32 5.32 0.00
Stade Rochelais 4.85 4.85 -0.00
Bordeaux Begles 3.96 3.96 0.00
Racing 92 2.75 2.75 -0.00
Stade Francais 1.86 1.86 -0.00
Section Paloise 1.38 1.38 -0.00
Clermont 0.41 0.41 0.00
Castres Olympique -0.09 -0.09 0.00
Lyon -0.18 -0.18 -0.00
USA Perpignan -0.66 -0.66 -0.00
Montpellier -0.96 -0.96 -0.00
Bayonne -1.69 -1.69 -0.00
Vannes -10.00 -10.00 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. USA Perpignan Sep 07 Bayonne 5.50
2 Castres Olympique vs. Racing 92 Sep 08 Castres Olympique 3.70
3 Clermont vs. Section Paloise Sep 08 Clermont 5.50
4 Montpellier vs. Lyon Sep 08 Montpellier 5.70
5 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Francais Sep 08 Bordeaux Begles 8.60
6 Stade Rochelais vs. Toulon Sep 09 Stade Rochelais 6.00
7 Vannes vs. Stade Toulousain Sep 09 Stade Toulousain -12.30

 

NRL Predictions for Round 27

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Team Ratings for Round 27

My apologies for missing the first game this week—I am travelling in Europe and have had little opportunity to work on the predictions in time.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.38 6.15 2.20
Roosters 8.29 3.08 5.20
Panthers 7.93 14.73 -6.80
Sharks 5.81 2.94 2.90
Sea Eagles 4.96 -0.48 5.40
Cowboys 2.36 2.47 -0.10
Bulldogs 1.63 -13.35 15.00
Knights -1.08 1.84 -2.90
Broncos -1.72 9.07 -10.80
Warriors -2.75 -0.07 -2.70
Dolphins -2.94 -7.09 4.20
Eels -5.32 0.14 -5.50
Raiders -5.57 -4.31 -1.30
Dragons -5.73 -6.93 1.20
Rabbitohs -6.03 0.87 -6.90
Titans -8.05 -7.89 -0.20
Wests Tigers -12.16 -13.15 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 196 matches played, 118 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Storm Aug 29 38 – 30 -4.60 FALSE
2 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 30 22 – 34 1.30 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Aug 30 34 – 12 16.20 TRUE
4 Eels vs. Dragons Aug 31 44 – 40 3.30 TRUE
5 Dolphins vs. Broncos Aug 31 40 – 6 -5.90 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Warriors Aug 31 28 – 30 18.00 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Titans Sep 01 36 – 14 8.30 TRUE
8 Roosters vs. Raiders Sep 01 12 – 14 19.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 27

Here are the predictions for Round 27. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Storm Sep 05 Storm -7.10
2 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Sep 06 Eels -3.80
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sep 06 Roosters -11.30
4 Dragons vs. Raiders Sep 07 Dragons 2.80
5 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Sep 07 Bulldogs 2.30
6 Panthers vs. Titans Sep 07 Panthers 19.00
7 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Sep 08 Sea Eagles 2.10
8 Knights vs. Dolphins Sep 08 Knights 4.90

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 12.13 10.63 1.50
Waikato 6.28 5.30 1.00
Hawke’s Bay 5.35 6.09 -0.70
Canterbury 4.52 6.01 -1.50
Taranaki 4.31 5.21 -0.90
Tasman 3.35 2.17 1.20
Bay of Plenty 2.35 3.52 -1.20
Auckland 2.09 3.00 -0.90
North Harbour 2.06 3.06 -1.00
Otago -2.36 -3.26 0.90
Counties Manukau -4.21 -5.22 1.00
Northland -5.33 -4.29 -1.00
Southland -9.07 -10.05 1.00
Manawatu -17.98 -18.73 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northland vs. Southland Aug 30 26 – 31 8.80 FALSE
2 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Aug 31 33 – 36 11.30 FALSE
3 Taranaki vs. Otago Aug 31 22 – 18 11.50 TRUE
4 Waikato vs. Auckland Aug 31 39 – 21 5.30 TRUE
5 Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 31 34 – 15 1.60 TRUE
6 Canterbury vs. Wellington Sep 01 21 – 46 -1.60 TRUE
7 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 01 26 – 38 -21.80 TRUE
8 Waikato vs. Northland Sep 04 34 – 19 14.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Sep 06 Bay of Plenty 23.30
2 Wellington vs. Southland Sep 07 Wellington 24.20
3 Auckland vs. North Harbour Sep 07 Auckland 3.00
4 Otago vs. Canterbury Sep 07 Canterbury -3.90
5 Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman Sep 07 Hawke’s Bay 5.00
6 Taranaki vs. Waikato Sep 08 Taranaki 1.00
7 Counties Manukau vs. Northland Sep 08 Counties Manukau 4.10
8 Otago vs. Wellington Sep 11 Wellington -11.50

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 9.66 -4.44 14.10
Bulls 5.81 -0.48 6.30
Sharks 5.78 0.96 4.80
Cheetahs 1.82 6.37 -4.60
Western Province -1.27 0.59 -1.90
Pumas -1.84 4.30 -6.10
Griquas -3.52 -2.59 -0.90
Griffons -26.44 -14.70 -11.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Aug 30 44 – 31 -5.10 FALSE
2 Bulls vs. Lions Aug 31 33 – 57 4.50 FALSE
3 Sharks vs. Griffons Aug 31 75 – 19 31.40 TRUE
4 Western Province vs. Pumas Sep 01 39 – 30 2.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Western Province Sep 06 Griquas 1.20
2 Lions vs. Griffons Sep 07 Lions 39.60
3 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Sep 07 Cheetahs -0.20
4 Sharks vs. Bulls Sep 08 Sharks 3.50

 

August 26, 2024

AFL Predictions for Finals Week 1

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Bulldogs 19.83 6.04 13.80
Hawthorn Hawks 18.31 -11.08 29.40
Brisbane Lions 16.61 17.47 -0.90
Sydney Swans 16.44 9.23 7.20
Port Adelaide Power 14.33 8.83 5.50
Geelong Cats 9.97 10.50 -0.50
GWS Giants 9.90 12.60 -2.70
Collingwood 6.73 14.87 -8.10
Carlton Blues 6.03 9.73 -3.70
Fremantle Dockers 5.35 0.40 5.00
Adelaide Crows 3.14 9.56 -6.40
Melbourne Demons 1.12 13.91 -12.80
St Kilda Saints 0.29 -0.63 0.90
Gold Coast Suns -6.56 -4.60 -2.00
Essendon Bombers -10.33 -17.70 7.40
Richmond Tigers -31.43 -6.13 -25.30
West Coast Eagles -36.56 -43.10 6.50
North Melbourne -39.02 -25.73 -13.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 207 matches played, 131 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Melbourne Demons vs. Collingwood Aug 23 57 – 103 0.10 FALSE
2 Geelong Cats vs. West Coast Eagles Aug 24 168 – 75 50.20 TRUE
3 Richmond Tigers vs. Gold Coast Suns Aug 24 66 – 94 -12.40 TRUE
4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. North Melbourne Aug 24 170 – 46 58.70 TRUE
5 Brisbane Lions vs. Essendon Bombers Aug 24 87 – 67 38.60 TRUE
6 Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Aug 24 121 – 90 19.80 TRUE
7 Western Bulldogs vs. GWS Giants Aug 25 98 – 61 16.00 TRUE
8 Carlton Blues vs. St Kilda Saints Aug 25 74 – 76 7.90 FALSE
9 Fremantle Dockers vs. Port Adelaide Power Aug 25 67 – 87 3.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Port Adelaide Power vs. Geelong Cats Sep 05 Port Adelaide Power 13.40
2 Western Bulldogs vs. Hawthorn Hawks Sep 06 Hawthorn Hawks -7.50
3 Sydney Swans vs. GWS Giants Sep 07 Sydney Swans 15.50
4 Brisbane Lions vs. Carlton Blues Sep 07 Brisbane Lions 19.60

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 26

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Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 9.58 3.08 6.50
Storm 9.15 6.15 3.00
Panthers 7.56 14.73 -7.20
Sharks 7.02 2.94 4.10
Sea Eagles 4.14 -0.48 4.60
Bulldogs 2.45 -13.35 15.80
Cowboys 1.58 2.47 -0.90
Broncos 0.61 9.07 -8.50
Knights -1.92 1.84 -3.80
Warriors -3.95 -0.07 -3.90
Dolphins -5.26 -7.09 1.80
Eels -5.37 0.14 -5.50
Rabbitohs -5.66 0.87 -6.50
Dragons -5.68 -6.93 1.20
Raiders -6.86 -4.31 -2.50
Titans -7.21 -7.89 0.70
Wests Tigers -12.16 -13.15 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 188 matches played, 115 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Aug 22 34 – 26 -16.20 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Aug 23 18 – 34 2.90 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 23 30 – 24 9.40 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Panthers Aug 24 22 – 18 -13.50 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Dolphins Aug 24 48 – 6 14.10 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Aug 24 16 – 36 1.90 FALSE
7 Titans vs. Roosters Aug 25 22 – 48 -12.10 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Sharks Aug 25 10 – 38 -7.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Storm Aug 29 Storm -4.60
2 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 30 Bulldogs 1.30
3 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Aug 30 Panthers 16.20
4 Eels vs. Dragons Aug 31 Eels 3.30
5 Dolphins vs. Broncos Aug 31 Broncos -5.90
6 Sharks vs. Warriors Aug 31 Sharks 18.00
7 Knights vs. Titans Sep 01 Knights 8.30
8 Roosters vs. Raiders Sep 01 Roosters 19.40

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 9.09 10.63 -1.50
Hawke’s Bay 6.95 6.09 0.90
Canterbury 6.73 6.01 0.70
Taranaki 5.54 5.21 0.30
Tasman 4.49 2.17 2.30
Waikato 4.35 5.30 -1.00
North Harbour 4.01 3.06 0.90
Bay of Plenty 2.47 3.52 -1.10
Auckland 2.29 3.00 -0.70
Otago -2.20 -3.26 1.10
Northland -5.14 -4.29 -0.90
Counties Manukau -7.54 -5.22 -2.30
Southland -10.38 -10.05 -0.30
Manawatu -17.19 -18.73 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Aug 23 55 – 30 13.40 TRUE
2 Counties Manukau vs. Tasman Aug 24 3 – 48 -4.40 TRUE
3 Auckland vs. Canterbury Aug 24 21 – 27 -0.00 TRUE
4 Southland vs. Taranaki Aug 24 24 – 39 -12.30 TRUE
5 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 25 31 – 26 -3.80 FALSE
6 Wellington vs. Manawatu Aug 25 39 – 31 32.40 TRUE
7 North Harbour vs. Waikato Aug 25 43 – 29 0.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northland vs. Southland Aug 30 Northland 8.20
2 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Aug 31 North Harbour 14.60
3 Taranaki vs. Otago Aug 31 Taranaki 10.70
4 Waikato vs. Auckland Aug 31 Waikato 5.10
5 Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 31 Tasman 5.00
6 Canterbury vs. Wellington Sep 01 Canterbury 0.60
7 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 01 Hawke’s Bay -21.10
8 Waikato vs. Northland Sep 04 Waikato 12.50

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 8.26 -0.48 8.70
Lions 7.21 -4.44 11.60
Sharks 3.64 0.96 2.70
Cheetahs 3.45 6.37 -2.90
Pumas -1.22 4.30 -5.50
Western Province -1.89 0.59 -2.50
Griquas -5.15 -2.59 -2.60
Griffons -24.30 -14.70 -9.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulls vs. Griquas Aug 24 47 – 24 15.40 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Sharks Aug 24 23 – 31 -0.60 TRUE
3 Cheetahs vs. Lions Aug 25 21 – 38 3.40 FALSE
4 Griffons vs. Pumas Aug 25 26 – 45 -19.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Aug 30 Cheetahs -5.10
2 Bulls vs. Lions Aug 31 Bulls 4.50
3 Sharks vs. Griffons Aug 31 Sharks 31.40
4 Western Province vs. Pumas Sep 01 Western Province 2.80

 

August 20, 2024

NRL Predictions for Round 25

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Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 8.72 3.08 5.60
Panthers 8.62 14.73 -6.10
Storm 7.50 6.15 1.30
Sharks 5.77 2.94 2.80
Sea Eagles 5.58 -0.48 6.10
Cowboys 1.58 2.47 -0.90
Bulldogs 1.31 -13.35 14.70
Broncos 0.83 9.07 -8.20
Warriors -2.81 -0.07 -2.70
Knights -3.23 1.84 -5.10
Dolphins -3.61 -7.09 3.50
Rabbitohs -4.34 0.87 -5.20
Dragons -4.43 -6.93 2.50
Eels -5.59 0.14 -5.70
Titans -6.36 -7.89 1.50
Raiders -7.92 -4.31 -3.60
Wests Tigers -13.61 -13.15 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 180 matches played, 111 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Storm Aug 15 22 – 24 5.00 FALSE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Aug 16 24 – 10 15.60 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Eels Aug 16 38 – 14 16.30 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Dolphins Aug 17 30 – 10 2.80 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Aug 17 42 – 4 9.10 TRUE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Aug 17 18 – 16 -7.40 FALSE
7 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 18 32 – 16 3.40 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Knights Aug 18 19 – 18 13.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Aug 22 Sea Eagles -16.20
2 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Aug 23 Warriors 2.90
3 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 23 Broncos 9.40
4 Raiders vs. Panthers Aug 24 Panthers -13.50
5 Storm vs. Dolphins Aug 24 Storm 14.10
6 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Aug 24 Rabbitohs 1.90
7 Titans vs. Roosters Aug 25 Roosters -12.10
8 Dragons vs. Sharks Aug 25 Sharks -7.20

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 10.46 10.63 -0.20
Hawke’s Bay 5.48 6.09 -0.60
Taranaki 5.38 5.21 0.20
Waikato 5.12 5.30 -0.20
Canterbury 4.92 6.01 -1.10
Bay of Plenty 3.59 3.52 0.10
Tasman 3.26 2.17 1.10
North Harbour 3.00 3.06 -0.10
Auckland 2.37 3.00 -0.60
Otago -2.62 -3.26 0.60
Northland -4.34 -4.29 -0.10
Counties Manukau -5.04 -5.22 0.20
Southland -9.43 -10.05 0.60
Manawatu -18.68 -18.73 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Otago vs. Auckland Aug 16 27 – 25 -3.30 FALSE
2 Northland vs. Manawatu Aug 17 35 – 18 17.40 TRUE
3 Tasman vs. Canterbury Aug 17 22 – 7 -0.80 FALSE
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Southland Aug 17 31 – 17 19.10 TRUE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. North Harbour Aug 18 24 – 20 3.50 TRUE
6 Wellington vs. Taranaki Aug 18 26 – 19 8.40 TRUE
7 Counties Manukau vs. Waikato Aug 18 20 – 26 -7.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Aug 23 Hawke’s Bay 12.80
2 Counties Manukau vs. Tasman Aug 24 Tasman -5.30
3 Auckland vs. Canterbury Aug 24 Auckland 0.50
4 Southland vs. Taranaki Aug 24 Taranaki -11.80
5 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 25 Bay of Plenty -3.20
6 Wellington vs. Manawatu Aug 25 Wellington 32.10
7 North Harbour vs. Waikato Aug 25 North Harbour 0.90
8 Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 28 Canterbury 2.40

 

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