May 21, 2024

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bristol 9.58 1.00 8.60
Saracens 9.49 6.82 2.70
Northampton Saints 7.43 2.66 4.80
Bath 5.69 -1.26 7.00
Sale Sharks 4.84 6.46 -1.60
Leicester Tigers 3.27 6.13 -2.90
Exeter Chiefs 1.23 -0.89 2.10
Harlequins -2.73 1.93 -4.70
Gloucester -9.04 -1.45 -7.60
Newcastle Falcons -19.02 -10.63 -8.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Northampton Saints May 19 43 – 12 -1.10 FALSE
2 Gloucester vs. Newcastle Falcons May 19 54 – 14 11.10 TRUE
3 Harlequins vs. Bristol May 19 28 – 53 -2.40 TRUE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs May 19 40 – 22 5.90 TRUE
5 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks May 19 10 – 20 14.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens Jun 01 Northampton Saints 3.90
2 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Jun 02 Bath 6.90

 

NRL Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 10.83 14.73 -3.90
Broncos 7.52 9.07 -1.50
Roosters 7.52 3.08 4.40
Sharks 6.97 2.94 4.00
Storm 6.83 6.15 0.70
Sea Eagles 1.33 -0.48 1.80
Warriors -0.11 -0.07 -0.00
Cowboys -0.78 2.47 -3.20
Knights -0.92 1.84 -2.80
Dolphins -2.16 -7.09 4.90
Raiders -3.66 -4.31 0.70
Eels -5.70 0.14 -5.80
Bulldogs -6.04 -13.35 7.30
Dragons -6.99 -6.93 -0.10
Rabbitohs -7.83 0.87 -8.70
Titans -8.02 -7.89 -0.10
Wests Tigers -10.79 -13.15 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Bulldogs May 17 24 – 20 2.10 TRUE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos May 17 12 – 13 -10.40 TRUE
3 Titans vs. Knights May 18 24 – 28 -7.60 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Roosters May 18 38 – 30 -1.80 FALSE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys May 18 22 – 28 -7.20 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Panthers May 19 22 – 20 -12.70 FALSE
7 Storm vs. Eels May 19 48 – 16 9.90 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Dolphins May 19 12 – 24 -11.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Dragons May 23 Bulldogs 4.00
2 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers May 24 Cowboys 13.00
3 Sea Eagles vs. Storm May 24 Storm -2.50
4 Raiders vs. Roosters May 25 Roosters -8.20
5 Sharks vs. Panthers May 25 Panthers -0.90
6 Rabbitohs vs. Eels May 25 Rabbitohs 0.90
7 Broncos vs. Titans May 26 Broncos 18.50
8 Warriors vs. Dolphins May 26 Warriors 9.10

 

AFL Predictions for Week 12

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Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sydney Swans 21.29 9.23 12.10
Brisbane Lions 16.55 17.47 -0.90
Melbourne Demons 12.23 13.91 -1.70
Geelong Cats 11.67 10.50 1.20
Western Bulldogs 11.39 6.04 5.40
Collingwood 10.31 14.87 -4.60
GWS Giants 9.26 12.60 -3.30
Carlton Blues 8.12 9.73 -1.60
Adelaide Crows 7.54 9.56 -2.00
Fremantle Dockers 4.53 0.40 4.10
Port Adelaide Power 4.44 8.83 -4.40
Gold Coast Suns 1.17 -4.60 5.80
St Kilda Saints -2.39 -0.63 -1.80
Essendon Bombers -6.43 -17.70 11.30
Hawthorn Hawks -12.22 -11.08 -1.10
Richmond Tigers -24.00 -6.13 -17.90
West Coast Eagles -30.29 -43.10 12.80
North Melbourne -39.00 -25.73 -13.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gold Coast Suns vs. Geelong Cats May 16 164 – 100 -20.00 FALSE
2 Sydney Swans vs. Carlton Blues May 17 117 – 65 17.70 TRUE
3 Collingwood vs. Adelaide Crows May 18 78 – 74 14.00 TRUE
4 GWS Giants vs. Western Bulldogs May 18 43 – 70 11.80 FALSE
5 Brisbane Lions vs. Richmond Tigers May 18 163 – 44 40.60 TRUE
6 St Kilda Saints vs. Fremantle Dockers May 18 55 – 72 5.10 FALSE
7 Essendon Bombers vs. North Melbourne May 19 106 – 66 30.50 TRUE
8 Port Adelaide Power vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 19 80 – 79 29.40 TRUE
9 West Coast Eagles vs. Melbourne Demons May 19 105 – 70 -42.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Bulldogs vs. Sydney Swans May 23 Sydney Swans -0.90
2 Fremantle Dockers vs. Collingwood May 24 Fremantle Dockers 3.20
3 Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns May 25 Carlton Blues 16.00
4 North Melbourne vs. Port Adelaide Power May 25 Port Adelaide Power -34.40
5 Geelong Cats vs. GWS Giants May 25 Geelong Cats 11.40
6 Richmond Tigers vs. Essendon Bombers May 25 Essendon Bombers -17.60
7 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Brisbane Lions May 26 Brisbane Lions -19.80
8 Melbourne Demons vs. St Kilda Saints May 26 Melbourne Demons 23.60
9 Adelaide Crows vs. West Coast Eagles May 26 Adelaide Crows 46.80

 

May 13, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 17

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Team Ratings for Week 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Munster 12.02 10.54 1.50
Leinster 11.42 10.73 0.70
Bulls 10.37 9.00 1.40
Glasgow 8.85 4.19 4.70
Stormers 7.82 8.93 -1.10
Lions 4.66 -4.26 8.90
Ulster 2.29 7.80 -5.50
Edinburgh 0.77 -2.26 3.00
Connacht -0.07 3.17 -3.20
Sharks -1.26 0.85 -2.10
Benetton -2.13 -5.12 3.00
Cardiff Rugby -4.12 -5.16 1.00
Ospreys -4.74 -7.79 3.10
Scarlets -12.94 -2.23 -10.70
Dragons -14.72 -8.14 -6.60
Zebre -18.22 -20.25 2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 90 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Stormers May 11 21 – 44 -17.40 TRUE
2 Edinburgh vs. Zebre May 11 40 – 14 22.20 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Glasgow May 12 40 – 34 5.40 TRUE
4 Scarlets vs. Ulster May 12 20 – 31 -11.30 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Benetton May 12 24 – 25 6.30 FALSE
6 Lions vs. Cardiff Rugby May 12 34 – 13 11.20 TRUE
7 Munster vs. Connacht May 12 47 – 12 10.50 TRUE
8 Leinster vs. Ospreys May 12 61 – 14 15.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 17

Here are the predictions for Week 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Edinburgh vs. Munster May 18 Munster -7.20
2 Zebre vs. Scarlets May 18 Scarlets -1.30
3 Bulls vs. Benetton May 18 Bulls 16.50
4 Ospreys vs. Dragons May 19 Ospreys 12.00
5 Lions vs. Glasgow May 19 Glasgow -0.20
6 Connacht vs. Stormers May 19 Stormers -3.90
7 Sharks vs. Cardiff Rugby May 19 Sharks 6.90
8 Ulster vs. Leinster May 19 Leinster -7.10

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 24

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Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.31 7.24 1.10
Stade Rochelais 5.58 6.40 -0.80
Bordeaux Begles 5.19 4.07 1.10
Toulon 4.80 3.11 1.70
Racing 92 3.19 3.42 -0.20
Stade Francais 1.88 2.62 -0.70
Section Paloise 0.71 -0.44 1.10
Clermont -0.01 1.47 -1.50
Montpellier -0.24 2.09 -2.30
Lyon -0.33 2.97 -3.30
Castres Olympique -0.51 -0.39 -0.10
Bayonne -0.62 -1.32 0.70
USA Perpignan -1.46 -3.64 2.20
US Oyonnax -8.87 -10.00 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 161 matches played, 118 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Rochelais May 12 34 – 14 5.10 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier May 12 27 – 26 6.80 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. Bayonne May 12 28 – 37 11.60 FALSE
4 Section Paloise vs. US Oyonnax May 12 39 – 17 15.40 TRUE
5 Toulon vs. Lyon May 12 30 – 24 12.30 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Clermont May 12 28 – 35 5.90 FALSE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais May 13 49 – 18 11.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. USA Perpignan May 19 Bayonne 7.30
2 Clermont vs. Castres Olympique May 19 Clermont 7.00
3 Lyon vs. Racing 92 May 19 Lyon 3.00
4 Montpellier vs. Stade Toulousain May 19 Stade Toulousain -2.00
5 Stade Francais vs. Bordeaux Begles May 19 Stade Francais 3.20
6 Stade Rochelais vs. Section Paloise May 19 Stade Rochelais 11.40
7 US Oyonnax vs. Toulon May 19 Toulon -7.20

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 13

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Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 15.11 13.21 1.90
Blues 14.85 12.20 2.70
Hurricanes 13.30 9.73 3.60
Crusaders 12.51 18.86 -6.30
Brumbies 6.45 6.52 -0.10
Reds 2.75 0.07 2.70
Highlanders -0.64 1.17 -1.80
Waratahs -2.97 -1.90 -1.10
Rebels -4.75 -4.59 -0.20
Western Force -6.16 -6.15 -0.00
Fijian Drua -8.67 -9.21 0.50
Moana Pasifika -12.67 -10.80 -1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 66 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Chiefs May 10 7 – 43 -23.70 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Rebels May 10 26 – 22 11.20 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Hurricanes May 11 31 – 27 4.60 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Crusaders May 11 32 – 29 -11.30 FALSE
5 Waratahs vs. Brumbies May 11 21 – 29 -6.20 TRUE
6 Western Force vs. Fijian Drua May 11 48 – 10 3.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Moana Pasifika May 17 Hurricanes 29.00
2 Rebels vs. Chiefs May 17 Chiefs -14.90
3 Fijian Drua vs. Reds May 18 Reds -8.40
4 Brumbies vs. Crusaders May 18 Crusaders -1.10
5 Blues vs. Highlanders May 18 Blues 18.50
6 Western Force vs. Waratahs May 18 Waratahs -0.20

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 11.60 6.82 4.80
Northampton Saints 10.14 2.66 7.50
Bristol 7.65 1.00 6.70
Bath 2.99 -1.26 4.30
Sale Sharks 2.72 6.46 -3.70
Exeter Chiefs 2.30 -0.89 3.20
Leicester Tigers 2.21 6.13 -3.90
Harlequins -0.80 1.93 -2.70
Gloucester -11.48 -1.45 -10.00
Newcastle Falcons -16.58 -10.63 -5.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 85 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bath May 11 17 – 28 -14.20 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers May 11 31 – 22 5.90 TRUE
3 Bristol vs. Saracens May 12 20 – 41 6.70 FALSE
4 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins May 12 58 – 26 4.40 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester May 12 90 – 0 15.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Northampton Saints May 19 Northampton Saints -1.10
2 Gloucester vs. Newcastle Falcons May 19 Gloucester 11.10
3 Harlequins vs. Bristol May 19 Bristol -2.40
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs May 19 Leicester Tigers 5.90
5 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks May 19 Saracens 14.90

 

NRL Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 11.73 14.73 -3.00
Roosters 8.13 3.08 5.00
Broncos 8.11 9.07 -1.00
Sharks 6.36 2.94 3.40
Storm 5.50 6.15 -0.70
Sea Eagles 0.75 -0.48 1.20
Knights -0.69 1.84 -2.50
Cowboys -0.70 2.47 -3.20
Warriors -1.01 -0.07 -0.90
Dolphins -2.19 -7.09 4.90
Raiders -3.79 -4.31 0.50
Eels -4.37 0.14 -4.50
Bulldogs -5.91 -13.35 7.40
Dragons -6.99 -6.93 -0.10
Rabbitohs -7.92 0.87 -8.80
Titans -8.25 -7.89 -0.40
Wests Tigers -10.76 -13.15 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dolphins vs. Sea Eagles May 09 30 – 24 -0.80 FALSE
2 Panthers vs. Bulldogs May 10 16 – 10 22.70 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Broncos May 10 14 – 30 -8.50 TRUE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Knights May 11 14 – 20 -10.70 TRUE
5 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs May 11 28 – 14 2.50 TRUE
6 Storm vs. Sharks May 11 18 – 25 3.40 FALSE
7 Roosters vs. Warriors May 12 38 – 18 15.60 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Cowboys May 12 20 – 18 -5.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Bulldogs May 17 Raiders 2.10
2 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos May 17 Broncos -10.40
3 Titans vs. Knights May 18 Knights -7.60
4 Sharks vs. Roosters May 18 Roosters -1.80
5 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys May 18 Cowboys -7.20
6 Warriors vs. Panthers May 19 Panthers -12.70
7 Storm vs. Eels May 19 Storm 9.90
8 Wests Tigers vs. Dolphins May 19 Dolphins -11.60

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 11

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Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sydney Swans 19.07 9.23 9.80
Melbourne Demons 16.66 13.91 2.80
Geelong Cats 16.42 10.50 5.90
Brisbane Lions 12.06 17.47 -5.40
GWS Giants 11.73 12.60 -0.90
Collingwood 11.40 14.87 -3.50
Carlton Blues 10.34 9.73 0.60
Western Bulldogs 8.92 6.04 2.90
Adelaide Crows 6.45 9.56 -3.10
Port Adelaide Power 6.33 8.83 -2.50
Fremantle Dockers 3.00 0.40 2.60
St Kilda Saints -0.86 -0.63 -0.20
Gold Coast Suns -3.59 -4.60 1.00
Essendon Bombers -7.47 -17.70 10.20
Hawthorn Hawks -14.12 -11.08 -3.00
Richmond Tigers -19.51 -6.13 -13.40
West Coast Eagles -34.72 -43.10 8.40
North Melbourne -37.95 -25.73 -12.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 81 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Carlton Blues vs. Melbourne Demons May 09 77 – 76 -8.40 FALSE
2 Geelong Cats vs. Port Adelaide Power May 10 95 – 101 22.90 FALSE
3 Fremantle Dockers vs. Sydney Swans May 10 39 – 87 -1.30 TRUE
4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. St Kilda Saints May 11 58 – 53 -6.90 FALSE
5 Essendon Bombers vs. GWS Giants May 11 82 – 62 -14.70 FALSE
6 Gold Coast Suns vs. North Melbourne May 11 120 – 52 29.50 TRUE
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Western Bulldogs May 11 42 – 133 -10.20 TRUE
8 Collingwood vs. West Coast Eagles May 12 103 – 37 52.10 TRUE
9 Adelaide Crows vs. Brisbane Lions May 12 90 – 90 4.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gold Coast Suns vs. Geelong Cats May 16 Geelong Cats -20.00
2 Sydney Swans vs. Carlton Blues May 17 Sydney Swans 17.70
3 Collingwood vs. Adelaide Crows May 18 Collingwood 14.00
4 GWS Giants vs. Western Bulldogs May 18 GWS Giants 11.80
5 Brisbane Lions vs. Richmond Tigers May 18 Brisbane Lions 40.60
6 St Kilda Saints vs. Fremantle Dockers May 18 St Kilda Saints 5.10
7 Essendon Bombers vs. North Melbourne May 19 Essendon Bombers 30.50
8 Port Adelaide Power vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 19 Port Adelaide Power 29.40
9 West Coast Eagles vs. Melbourne Demons May 19 Melbourne Demons -42.40
10 Western Bulldogs vs. Sydney Swans May 23 Sydney Swans -1.10

 

May 7, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 12

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Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 14.89 12.20 2.70
Chiefs 14.59 13.21 1.40
Hurricanes 13.25 9.73 3.50
Crusaders 13.10 18.86 -5.80
Brumbies 6.32 6.52 -0.20
Reds 3.09 0.07 3.00
Highlanders -1.23 1.17 -2.40
Waratahs -2.84 -1.90 -0.90
Rebels -5.09 -4.59 -0.50
Western Force -7.36 -6.15 -1.20
Fijian Drua -7.46 -9.21 1.80
Moana Pasifika -12.15 -10.80 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Waratahs May 03 41 – 12 20.30 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Blues May 03 11 – 38 -13.90 TRUE
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Highlanders May 04 17 – 28 -7.40 TRUE
4 Crusaders vs. Reds May 04 28 – 33 16.60 FALSE
5 Chiefs vs. Western Force May 04 56 – 7 25.20 TRUE
6 Brumbies vs. Fijian Drua May 04 28 – 20 17.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Chiefs May 10 Chiefs -23.70
2 Reds vs. Rebels May 10 Reds 11.20
3 Blues vs. Hurricanes May 11 Blues 4.60
4 Highlanders vs. Crusaders May 11 Crusaders -11.30
5 Waratahs vs. Brumbies May 11 Brumbies -6.20
6 Western Force vs. Fijian Drua May 11 Western Force 3.10

 

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