May 10, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 20.53 19.20 1.30
Panthers 14.15 14.26 -0.10
Rabbitohs 9.74 15.81 -6.10
Sea Eagles 6.49 10.99 -4.50
Eels 4.06 2.54 1.50
Sharks 2.05 -1.10 3.20
Roosters 2.03 2.23 -0.20
Titans -3.61 1.05 -4.70
Cowboys -3.76 -12.27 8.50
Raiders -4.50 -1.10 -3.40
Broncos -4.79 -8.90 4.10
Dragons -7.44 -7.99 0.60
Warriors -8.47 -8.99 0.50
Wests Tigers -8.60 -10.94 2.30
Knights -9.78 -6.54 -3.20
Bulldogs -10.10 -10.25 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos May 05 12 – 32 22.20 FALSE
2 Raiders vs. Bulldogs May 06 14 – 4 8.30 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Eels May 06 20 – 22 15.20 FALSE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers May 07 36 – 22 18.90 TRUE
5 Roosters vs. Titans May 07 44 – 16 6.10 TRUE
6 Cowboys vs. Knights May 07 36 – 16 7.50 TRUE
7 Storm vs. Dragons May 08 42 – 6 30.00 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Warriors May 08 29 – 10 15.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Knights May 13 Knights -0.30
2 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos May 13 Sea Eagles 8.30
3 Warriors vs. Rabbitohs May 14 Rabbitohs -18.20
4 Titans vs. Dragons May 14 Titans 3.80
5 Storm vs. Panthers May 14 Storm 6.40
6 Sharks vs. Raiders May 15 Sharks 6.50
7 Roosters vs. Eels May 15 Eels -2.00
8 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys May 15 Cowboys -4.80

 

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United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 27

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Team Ratings for Week 27

There was one rescheduled game last week which I didn’t pick up so wasn’t in my forecast. I have added it in the results below.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.97 14.79 1.20
Munster 10.59 10.69 -0.10
Ulster 8.71 7.41 1.30
Stormers 6.90 0.00 6.90
Bulls 6.62 3.65 3.00
Sharks 6.19 -0.07 6.30
Edinburgh 3.03 2.90 0.10
Glasgow 2.39 3.69 -1.30
Ospreys -0.23 0.94 -1.20
Connacht -0.53 1.72 -2.20
Scarlets -0.90 -0.77 -0.10
Lions -2.45 -3.91 1.50
Cardiff Rugby -5.72 -0.11 -5.60
Benetton -5.93 -4.50 -1.40
Dragons -11.05 -6.92 -4.10
Zebre -17.57 -13.47 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 134 matches played, 94 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Zebre May 07 42 – 14 17.10 TRUE
2 Ospreys vs. Dragons May 09 50 – 31 15.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 27

Here are the predictions for Week 27. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Cardiff Rugby May 14 Cardiff Rugby -0.30
2 Benetton vs. Zebre May 15 Benetton 16.60

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 13

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Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.29 13.43 0.90
Blues 11.67 9.26 2.40
Hurricanes 9.35 8.28 1.10
Chiefs 7.72 5.56 2.20
Brumbies 6.09 3.61 2.50
Highlanders 4.37 6.54 -2.20
Reds 0.93 1.37 -0.40
Waratahs -4.19 -9.00 4.80
Western Force -6.39 -4.96 -1.40
Rebels -9.30 -5.79 -3.50
Moana Pasifika -11.77 -10.00 -1.80
Fijian Drua -14.46 -10.00 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 65 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Rebels May 06 71 – 28 25.10 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Highlanders May 06 19 – 27 3.90 FALSE
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Waratahs May 07 20 – 26 -0.70 TRUE
4 Chiefs vs. Brumbies May 07 28 – 38 9.60 FALSE
5 Western Force vs. Crusaders May 07 15 – 53 -12.10 TRUE
6 Hurricanes vs. Fijian Drua May 08 67 – 5 26.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Western Force May 13 Highlanders 16.80
2 Brumbies vs. Crusaders May 13 Crusaders -2.20
3 Fijian Drua vs. Moana Pasifika May 14 Fijian Drua 3.30
4 Blues vs. Reds May 14 Blues 16.70
5 Waratahs vs. Hurricanes May 14 Hurricanes -7.50
6 Rebels vs. Chiefs May 15 Chiefs -11.00

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 9.24 7.25 2.00
Cheetahs 5.06 -2.70 7.80
Sharks 2.43 4.13 -1.70
Pumas 1.13 -3.31 4.40
Griquas -2.42 -4.92 2.50
Western Province -2.42 1.42 -3.80
Lions -13.02 -1.88 -11.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 29 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Cheetahs May 07 26 – 35 -14.60 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Pumas May 07 10 – 20 8.70 FALSE
3 Bulls vs. Griquas May 08 48 – 38 17.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Western Province May 14 Pumas 8.00
2 Cheetahs vs. Sharks May 14 Cheetahs 7.10
3 Bulls vs. Lions May 15 Bulls 26.80

 

May 3, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 20.05 19.20 0.80
Panthers 15.18 14.26 0.90
Rabbitohs 12.07 15.81 -3.70
Sea Eagles 6.88 10.99 -4.10
Eels 3.03 2.54 0.50
Sharks 1.77 -1.10 2.90
Roosters 0.74 2.23 -1.50
Titans -2.32 1.05 -3.40
Cowboys -4.54 -12.27 7.70
Raiders -4.63 -1.10 -3.50
Dragons -6.96 -7.99 1.00
Broncos -7.12 -8.90 1.80
Warriors -8.19 -8.99 0.80
Wests Tigers -8.99 -10.94 1.90
Knights -9.00 -6.54 -2.50
Bulldogs -9.97 -10.25 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Sharks Apr 28 16 – 7 -7.90 FALSE
2 Titans vs. Panthers Apr 29 4 – 18 -14.60 TRUE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Apr 29 40 – 22 6.80 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Raiders Apr 30 21 – 20 -4.40 FALSE
5 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Apr 30 16 – 12 -9.40 FALSE
6 Eels vs. Cowboys Apr 30 4 – 35 15.60 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Storm May 01 2 – 50 -23.20 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers May 01 12 – 6 4.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos May 05 Rabbitohs 22.20
2 Raiders vs. Bulldogs May 06 Raiders 8.30
3 Panthers vs. Eels May 06 Panthers 15.20
4 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers May 07 Sea Eagles 18.90
5 Roosters vs. Titans May 07 Roosters 6.10
6 Cowboys vs. Knights May 07 Cowboys 7.50
7 Storm vs. Dragons May 08 Storm 30.00
8 Sharks vs. Warriors May 08 Sharks 15.50

 

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United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 26

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Team Ratings for Week 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.97 14.79 1.20
Munster 10.59 10.69 -0.10
Ulster 8.71 7.41 1.30
Stormers 6.90 0.00 6.90
Bulls 6.62 3.65 3.00
Sharks 6.19 -0.07 6.30
Edinburgh 3.03 2.90 0.10
Glasgow 2.39 3.69 -1.30
Connacht -0.53 1.72 -2.20
Ospreys -0.58 0.94 -1.50
Scarlets -0.90 -0.77 -0.10
Lions -2.45 -3.91 1.50
Benetton -5.93 -4.50 -1.40
Cardiff Rugby -6.32 -0.11 -6.20
Dragons -10.70 -6.92 -3.80
Zebre -16.97 -13.47 -3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 132 matches played, 92 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulls vs. Glasgow Apr 30 29 – 17 10.40 TRUE
2 Munster vs. Cardiff Rugby Apr 30 42 – 21 23.90 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Benetton May 01 37 – 29 10.40 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Connacht May 01 41 – 21 11.70 TRUE
5 Zebre vs. Dragons May 01 23 – 18 -0.80 FALSE
6 Ospreys vs. Scarlets May 01 54 – 36 3.80 TRUE
7 Stormers vs. Leinster May 01 20 – 13 -3.80 FALSE
8 Edinburgh vs. Ulster May 01 10 – 16 2.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 26

Here are the predictions for Week 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Ospreys vs. Dragons May 09 Ospreys 15.10

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 25

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Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.11 6.78 0.30
Racing-Metro 92 6.70 6.13 0.60
Stade Toulousain 6.01 6.83 -0.80
Bordeaux-Begles 5.61 5.42 0.20
Lyon Rugby 4.67 4.15 0.50
Clermont Auvergne 4.54 5.09 -0.60
RC Toulonnais 4.05 1.82 2.20
Montpellier 3.06 -0.01 3.10
Castres Olympique 2.63 0.94 1.70
Stade Francais Paris 0.41 1.20 -0.80
Section Paloise -1.12 -2.25 1.10
USA Perpignan -3.23 -2.78 -0.50
Brive -4.42 -3.19 -1.20
Biarritz -8.68 -2.78 -5.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 167 matches played, 121 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Biarritz vs. Castres Olympique May 01 13 – 48 -2.90 TRUE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. RC Toulonnais May 01 16 – 29 9.50 FALSE
3 Clermont Auvergne vs. Stade Francais Paris May 01 29 – 26 11.50 TRUE
4 Lyon Rugby vs. Montpellier May 01 43 – 20 7.10 TRUE
5 Section Paloise vs. Racing-Metro 92 May 01 21 – 42 0.00 FALSE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. La Rochelle May 01 23 – 16 5.20 TRUE
7 USA Perpignan vs. Brive May 01 27 – 10 7.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Biarritz vs. Clermont Auvergne May 22 Clermont Auvergne -6.70
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Lyon Rugby May 22 Bordeaux-Begles 7.40
3 Brive vs. Stade Toulousain May 22 Stade Toulousain -3.90
4 Castres Olympique vs. USA Perpignan May 22 Castres Olympique 12.40
5 La Rochelle vs. Stade Francais Paris May 22 La Rochelle 13.20
6 Montpellier vs. Racing-Metro 92 May 22 Montpellier 2.90
7 RC Toulonnais vs. Section Paloise May 22 RC Toulonnais 11.70

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 12

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Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 13.02 13.43 -0.40
Blues 10.74 9.26 1.50
Chiefs 8.73 5.56 3.20
Hurricanes 7.68 8.28 -0.60
Brumbies 5.09 3.61 1.50
Highlanders 3.72 6.54 -2.80
Reds 1.58 1.37 0.20
Waratahs -4.61 -9.00 4.40
Western Force -5.12 -4.96 -0.20
Rebels -8.37 -5.79 -2.60
Moana Pasifika -11.35 -10.00 -1.30
Fijian Drua -12.80 -10.00 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 59 matches played, 42 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Reds vs. Chiefs Apr 29 25 – 27 -1.00 TRUE
2 Western Force vs. Blues Apr 29 18 – 22 -11.00 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Highlanders Apr 30 24 – 27 -11.50 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Crusaders Apr 30 24 – 21 -13.30 FALSE
5 Rebels vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 30 26 – 22 9.90 TRUE
6 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes May 01 42 – 25 1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Rebels May 06 Blues 25.10
2 Reds vs. Highlanders May 06 Reds 3.90
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Waratahs May 07 Waratahs -0.70
4 Chiefs vs. Brumbies May 07 Chiefs 9.60
5 Western Force vs. Crusaders May 07 Crusaders -12.10
6 Hurricanes vs. Fijian Drua May 08 Hurricanes 26.50

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 25

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Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 5.95 -5.00 10.90
Leicester Tigers 4.66 -6.14 10.80
Gloucester 3.01 -1.02 4.00
Harlequins 2.88 -1.08 4.00
Exeter Chiefs 2.60 7.35 -4.70
Wasps 1.98 5.66 -3.70
Northampton Saints 1.50 -2.48 4.00
Sale Sharks 1.38 4.96 -3.60
London Irish -2.60 -8.05 5.40
Bristol -4.08 1.28 -5.40
Newcastle Falcons -7.07 -3.52 -3.60
Bath -8.44 2.14 -10.60
Worcester Warriors -13.39 -5.71 -7.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 141 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Apr 30 32 – 31 3.50 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 30 35 – 27 13.60 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Bath May 01 64 – 0 11.30 TRUE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol May 01 56 – 26 11.30 TRUE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Saracens May 01 16 – 38 -13.90 TRUE
6 London Irish vs. Wasps May 02 42 – 42 -0.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. London Irish May 22 London Irish -1.30
2 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs May 22 Exeter Chiefs -2.20
3 Harlequins vs. Gloucester May 22 Harlequins 4.40
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers May 22 Leicester Tigers -7.20
5 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints May 22 Saracens 8.90
6 Wasps vs. Sale Sharks May 22 Wasps 5.10

 

April 26, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 18.61 19.20 -0.60
Panthers 15.23 14.26 1.00
Rabbitohs 11.36 15.81 -4.50
Sea Eagles 7.59 10.99 -3.40
Eels 5.57 2.54 3.00
Sharks 2.79 -1.10 3.90
Roosters 1.56 2.23 -0.70
Titans -2.37 1.05 -3.40
Raiders -4.19 -1.10 -3.10
Dragons -7.05 -7.99 0.90
Cowboys -7.08 -12.27 5.20
Knights -7.56 -6.54 -1.00
Broncos -8.14 -8.90 0.80
Warriors -8.62 -8.99 0.40
Wests Tigers -8.89 -10.94 2.00
Bulldogs -10.79 -10.25 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Apr 21 34 – 22 -3.70 FALSE
2 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Apr 22 34 – 14 3.70 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Titans Apr 23 30 – 4 -5.30 FALSE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Apr 23 23 – 22 -19.70 FALSE
5 Knights vs. Eels Apr 24 2 – 39 -6.70 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Raiders Apr 24 36 – 6 21.30 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Roosters Apr 25 14 – 12 -6.70 FALSE
8 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 70 – 10 29.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Sharks Apr 28 Sharks -7.90
2 Titans vs. Panthers Apr 29 Panthers -14.60
3 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Apr 29 Rabbitohs 6.80
4 Warriors vs. Raiders Apr 30 Raiders -4.40
5 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Apr 30 Roosters -9.40
6 Eels vs. Cowboys Apr 30 Eels 15.60
7 Knights vs. Storm May 01 Storm -23.20
8 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers May 01 Dragons 4.80

 

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