Currie Cup Predictions for Round 2
Team Ratings for Round 2
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 13.69 | 14.61 | -0.90 |
| Griquas | 8.56 | 9.78 | -1.20 |
| Pumas | 4.49 | 5.36 | -0.90 |
| Cheetahs | -1.50 | -2.42 | 0.90 |
| Bulls | -3.01 | -2.24 | -0.80 |
| Boland Cavaliers | -3.47 | -4.25 | 0.80 |
| Sharks | -3.78 | -4.65 | 0.90 |
| Stormers | -8.78 | -10.00 | 1.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 4 matches played, 1 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 25%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pumas vs. Sharks | Jul 18 | 24 – 26 | 13.00 | FALSE |
| 2 | Stormers vs. Griquas | Jul 18 | 25 – 19 | -16.80 | FALSE |
| 3 | Cheetahs vs. Lions | Jul 19 | 29 – 27 | -14.00 | FALSE |
| 4 | Boland Cavaliers vs. Bulls | Jul 20 | 24 – 10 | 1.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 2
Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cheetahs vs. Sharks | Jul 25 | Cheetahs | 5.30 |
| 2 | Lions vs. Pumas | Jul 26 | Lions | 12.20 |
| 3 | Griquas vs. Bulls | Jul 26 | Griquas | 14.60 |
| 4 | Boland Cavaliers vs. Stormers | Jul 27 | Boland Cavaliers | 8.30 |
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