Posts filed under General (3123)

April 15, 2025

AFL Predictions for Week 7

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Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brisbane Lions 19.38 22.65 -3.30
Hawthorn Hawks 18.64 21.95 -3.30
Collingwood 15.48 5.39 10.10
Geelong Cats 14.44 15.04 -0.60
GWS Giants 12.62 9.08 3.50
Sydney Swans 11.35 12.60 -1.30
Western Bulldogs 10.39 18.20 -7.80
Adelaide Crows 10.20 2.69 7.50
Fremantle Dockers 5.80 5.99 -0.20
St Kilda Saints 3.48 0.89 2.60
Port Adelaide Power 3.19 7.63 -4.40
Carlton Blues 0.97 5.01 -4.00
Gold Coast Suns 0.24 -6.41 6.70
Essendon Bombers -8.44 -10.15 1.70
Melbourne Demons -8.49 -0.21 -8.30
North Melbourne -31.73 -37.08 5.40
Richmond Tigers -33.70 -31.00 -2.70
West Coast Eagles -36.21 -34.67 -1.50

Performance So Far

So far there have been 44 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Adelaide Crows vs. Geelong Cats Apr 10 100 – 119 11.10 FALSE
2 Collingwood vs. Sydney Swans Apr 11 109 – 78 -0.40 FALSE
3 North Melbourne vs. Gold Coast Suns Apr 12 89 – 141 -28.40 TRUE
4 Carlton Blues vs. West Coast Eagles Apr 12 121 – 50 31.80 TRUE
5 Western Bulldogs vs. Brisbane Lions Apr 12 97 – 118 -6.70 TRUE
6 Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers Apr 12 57 – 96 6.10 FALSE
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Fremantle Dockers Apr 13 47 – 108 -35.80 TRUE
8 St Kilda Saints vs. GWS Giants Apr 13 82 – 110 -5.80 TRUE
9 Port Adelaide Power vs. Hawthorn Hawks Apr 13 121 – 91 -10.00 FALSE

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brisbane Lions vs. Collingwood Apr 17 Brisbane Lions 14.90
2 North Melbourne vs. Carlton Blues Apr 18 Carlton Blues -32.70
3 West Coast Eagles vs. Essendon Bombers Apr 18 Essendon Bombers -16.80
4 Melbourne Demons vs. Fremantle Dockers Apr 19 Fremantle Dockers -3.30
5 Adelaide Crows vs. GWS Giants Apr 19 Adelaide Crows 8.60
6 Richmond Tigers vs. Gold Coast Suns Apr 19 Gold Coast Suns -22.90
7 Sydney Swans vs. Port Adelaide Power Apr 20 Sydney Swans 19.20
8 Western Bulldogs vs. St Kilda Saints Apr 20 Western Bulldogs 6.90
9 Geelong Cats vs. Hawthorn Hawks Apr 21 Hawthorn Hawks -15.20

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 10

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Team Ratings for Week 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 11.50 14.92 -3.40
Chiefs 10.99 11.43 -0.40
Crusaders 9.91 8.99 0.90
Hurricanes 9.17 10.97 -1.80
Brumbies 5.27 6.19 -0.90
Reds 1.27 1.35 -0.10
Highlanders -1.63 -2.50 0.90
Western Force -5.01 -6.41 1.40
Waratahs -5.27 -5.17 -0.10
Moana Pasifika -7.42 -11.25 3.80
Fijian Drua -8.24 -7.98 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 44 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Apr 11 24 – 31 3.70 FALSE
2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Apr 11 21 – 14 -13.90 FALSE
3 Blues vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 12 36 – 17 23.00 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Fijian Drua Apr 12 43 – 20 9.50 TRUE
5 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 12 26 – 39 0.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Brumbies Apr 18 Brumbies -8.70
2 Crusaders vs. Blues Apr 18 Crusaders 1.90
3 Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs Apr 19 Fijian Drua 0.50
4 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Apr 19 Chiefs 16.10
5 Western Force vs. Hurricanes Apr 19 Hurricanes -10.20

 

NRL Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.06 9.29 1.80
Panthers 5.57 8.50 -2.90
Sharks 4.80 5.10 -0.30
Roosters 4.35 7.44 -3.10
Sea Eagles 3.06 2.97 0.10
Bulldogs 2.70 0.07 2.60
Cowboys 2.57 4.11 -1.50
Broncos 0.25 -1.82 2.10
Raiders -1.34 -3.61 2.30
Dolphins -1.54 -1.96 0.40
Warriors -1.85 -1.68 -0.20
Knights -2.64 -0.05 -2.60
Rabbitohs -3.09 -4.35 1.30
Dragons -3.47 -4.55 1.10
Titans -5.64 -5.50 -0.10
Eels -7.19 -3.02 -4.20
Wests Tigers -7.61 -10.97 3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dolphins vs. Panthers Apr 10 30 – 12 -6.20 FALSE
2 Dragons vs. Titans Apr 11 38 – 16 3.50 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Roosters Apr 11 16 – 26 -0.10 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Apr 12 24 – 18 4.50 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Apr 12 16 – 24 -2.00 TRUE
6 Eels vs. Raiders Apr 12 12 – 50 -3.10 TRUE
7 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 13 42 – 14 15.20 TRUE
8 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Apr 13 4 – 20 10.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Dragons Apr 17 Sea Eagles 9.50
2 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Apr 18 Bulldogs 5.80
3 Dolphins vs. Storm Apr 18 Storm -9.60
4 Warriors vs. Broncos Apr 19 Warriors 1.40
5 Roosters vs. Panthers Apr 19 Roosters 1.80
6 Titans vs. Raiders Apr 20 Raiders -1.30
7 Knights vs. Sharks Apr 20 Sharks -4.40
8 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Apr 21 Eels -0.40

 

April 13, 2025

Briefly

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  • Jessica Mackenzie on the “dire” wolf story, and how it got that way: “It’s important to consider how sausage like this is made, and I mean the stories—not the actual wolves.”
  • Visualisation of the “demise of the love song” from pudding.cool
  • Proportions and totals: is the individual risk of Alzheimer’s going down over time? (apparently, yes, even though the total number of cases goes up with the number of older people)
  • Australian Associated Press fact check: Claim – 710,000 new voters on the electoral roll include migrants who arrived under Labor.  False: Migrants who arrived under Labor are not eligible to vote in the 2025 election.
  • Stuff headline: Traffic ‘worse than Auckland’: Is this New Zealand’s most ‘anti-car’ city? We’re seeing proper use of headline single quotes here — ‘worse than Auckland’ is an attributed quotation in the text. It is, however, attributed to a single motorist.  Headlines about traffic density/slowness really shouldn’t just be one person’s opinion — traffic is measurable, and measured.

ISI on US official statistics

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The International Statistical Institute is a professional organisation of statisticians. Its membership includes quite a lot of expertise on the production and use of official statistics, and it has a habit of commenting on political interference with official statistics.

The ISI has a statement on US official statistics

The International Statistical Institute (ISI) is concerned about government interference in the compilation and availability of Federal Statistics in the United States of America (USA). A proposed change in measuring and reporting U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) serves as an important and timely example.

The statement goes on to explain that the USA has proposed removing government expenditures from GDP, and that this is both intrinsically a bad idea and also a weakening of international agreements on which official statistics to measure and how to define them.

 

[Disclaimer: I’m a member of the ISI, but I wasn’t involved in any way in producing this statement]

April 8, 2025

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 9

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Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 11.79 11.43 0.40
Blues 11.77 14.92 -3.10
Hurricanes 9.63 10.97 -1.30
Crusaders 9.45 8.99 0.50
Brumbies 4.70 6.19 -1.50
Reds 1.83 1.35 0.50
Highlanders -2.19 -2.50 0.30
Western Force -5.01 -6.41 1.40
Waratahs -6.07 -5.17 -0.90
Fijian Drua -7.68 -7.98 0.30
Moana Pasifika -7.70 -11.25 3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 39 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Reds Apr 04 27 – 15 14.30 TRUE
2 Moana Pasifika vs. Waratahs Apr 05 45 – 28 1.10 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Crusaders Apr 05 14 – 31 -12.50 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Hurricanes Apr 05 19 – 18 6.40 TRUE
5 Western Force vs. Highlanders Apr 05 29 – 20 0.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Apr 11 Hurricanes 3.70
2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Apr 11 Chiefs -13.90
3 Blues vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 12 Blues 23.00
4 Highlanders vs. Fijian Drua Apr 12 Highlanders 9.50
5 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 12 Reds 0.60

 

NRL Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.44 9.29 1.10
Panthers 6.60 8.50 -1.90
Sharks 4.68 5.10 -0.40
Roosters 3.85 7.44 -3.60
Sea Eagles 3.18 2.97 0.20
Bulldogs 2.70 0.07 2.60
Cowboys 2.24 4.11 -1.90
Broncos 0.75 -1.82 2.60
Warriors -1.24 -1.68 0.40
Knights -1.55 -0.05 -1.50
Dolphins -2.57 -1.96 -0.60
Raiders -2.71 -3.61 0.90
Rabbitohs -2.75 -4.35 1.60
Dragons -4.30 -4.55 0.30
Titans -4.82 -5.50 0.70
Eels -5.82 -3.02 -2.80
Wests Tigers -8.70 -10.97 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 22 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Sharks Apr 03 24 – 20 -5.30 FALSE
2 Panthers vs. Cowboys Apr 04 18 – 22 8.60 FALSE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Apr 04 20 – 14 -4.70 FALSE
4 Eels vs. Dragons Apr 05 23 – 22 1.60 TRUE
5 Titans vs. Dolphins Apr 05 10 – 36 3.10 FALSE
6 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Apr 05 46 – 24 11.40 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Apr 06 24 – 48 -2.40 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Knights Apr 06 20 – 0 5.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dolphins vs. Panthers Apr 10 Panthers -6.20
2 Dragons vs. Titans Apr 11 Dragons 3.50
3 Broncos vs. Roosters Apr 11 Roosters -0.10
4 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Apr 12 Sharks 4.50
5 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Apr 12 Cowboys -2.00
6 Eels vs. Raiders Apr 12 Raiders -3.10
7 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 13 Storm 15.20
8 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Apr 13 Knights 10.10

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawthorn Hawks 24.22 21.95 2.30
Brisbane Lions 18.34 22.65 -4.30
Geelong Cats 17.09 15.04 2.10
Collingwood 13.76 5.39 8.40
Western Bulldogs 12.46 18.20 -5.70
GWS Giants 11.53 9.08 2.40
Sydney Swans 11.07 12.60 -1.50
Adelaide Crows 9.10 2.69 6.40
St Kilda Saints 4.51 0.89 3.60
Fremantle Dockers 2.66 5.99 -3.30
Carlton Blues 1.92 5.01 -3.10
Gold Coast Suns 1.74 -6.41 8.20
Port Adelaide Power 1.29 7.63 -6.30
Melbourne Demons -10.73 -0.21 -10.50
Essendon Bombers -11.08 -10.15 -0.90
North Melbourne -30.41 -37.08 6.70
Richmond Tigers -32.32 -31.00 -1.30
West Coast Eagles -37.53 -34.67 -2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Collingwood vs. Carlton Blues Apr 03 63 – 46 10.20 TRUE
2 Geelong Cats vs. Melbourne Demons Apr 04 85 – 46 38.80 TRUE
3 Gold Coast Suns vs. Adelaide Crows Apr 05 91 – 90 4.50 TRUE
4 Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Apr 05 90 – 118 -41.90 TRUE
5 North Melbourne vs. Sydney Swans Apr 05 52 – 117 -25.00 TRUE
6 GWS Giants vs. West Coast Eagles Apr 06 132 – 51 56.40 TRUE
7 Port Adelaide Power vs. St Kilda Saints Apr 06 72 – 89 12.00 FALSE
8 Fremantle Dockers vs. Western Bulldogs Apr 06 97 – 81 -1.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Adelaide Crows vs. Geelong Cats Apr 10 Adelaide Crows 3.00
2 Collingwood vs. Sydney Swans Apr 11 Collingwood 2.70
3 North Melbourne vs. Gold Coast Suns Apr 12 Gold Coast Suns -32.10
4 Carlton Blues vs. West Coast Eagles Apr 12 Carlton Blues 39.50
5 Western Bulldogs vs. Brisbane Lions Apr 12 Brisbane Lions -5.90
6 Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers Apr 12 Melbourne Demons 0.40
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Fremantle Dockers Apr 13 Fremantle Dockers -35.00
8 St Kilda Saints vs. GWS Giants Apr 13 GWS Giants -7.00
9 Port Adelaide Power vs. Hawthorn Hawks Apr 13 Hawthorn Hawks -11.90

 

April 6, 2025

Briefly

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  • Coffee nerd James Hoffman has a good video on an issue that crops up a lot on StatsChat — totals vs means/rates — though in his case it’s about shorter vs longer espresso shots for making flat white/cappucino.
  • From Axios: foreigners don’t seem to be visiting the US as much — this is more interesting than it sounds, since a lot of the dip must be short-notice cancellations, which are relatively difficult/expensive.
  • According to the NZ Herald, Elon Musk wants zero tariffs between the US and Europe. The story doesn’t point out that was very close to the situation a week ago (eg, according to economist Justin Wolfers.)
  • Friday’s rain pushed the Auckland dam water levels up nearly four percentage points (conveniently, the total storage is close to 100 GL, so 1 GL is about 1 percentage point), which was bit more than a third of the deficit from average.  While we’re being nitpicky, that should be 9.99% below, not “-9.99% below”
  • New York has a new subway map
April 4, 2025

Bike data

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Tim Welch has produced a nice Auckland Cycleways Dashboard (it’s a draft at the moment, or ‘beta’ as we nerds say).

Here are some of the University-relevant routes (click to embiggen, as usual)

These are based on the Auckland Transport cycle counters, which are good for the city centre and major bike paths, but less informative for, say, people commuting in from the south, where there aren’t bike lanes or bike counters.

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