NFL Predictions for the Super Bowl
Team Ratings for the Super Bowl
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 11.49 | 1.60 | 9.90 |
| Patriots | 9.73 | -6.88 | 16.60 |
| Rams | 6.65 | 3.32 | 3.30 |
| Lions | 5.54 | 9.26 | -3.70 |
| Texans | 5.51 | 0.65 | 4.90 |
| Bills | 5.10 | 8.28 | -3.20 |
| Jaguars | 4.42 | -6.28 | 10.70 |
| Broncos | 4.05 | 3.65 | 0.40 |
| Vikings | 3.09 | 2.67 | 0.40 |
| Ravens | 2.84 | 11.27 | -8.40 |
| Packers | 2.06 | 5.92 | -3.90 |
| Bears | 1.41 | -3.03 | 4.40 |
| Chargers | 0.96 | 2.67 | -1.70 |
| Eagles | 0.79 | 12.46 | -11.70 |
| 49ers | 0.61 | -3.05 | 3.70 |
| Bengals | 0.48 | 3.45 | -3.00 |
| Steelers | -0.75 | -0.33 | -0.40 |
| Colts | -1.15 | -5.52 | 4.40 |
| Falcons | -1.19 | -3.22 | 2.00 |
| Chiefs | -1.92 | 3.00 | -4.90 |
| Browns | -2.14 | -9.54 | 7.40 |
| Giants | -2.18 | -7.54 | 5.40 |
| Saints | -2.73 | -5.63 | 2.90 |
| Cowboys | -4.12 | -3.23 | -0.90 |
| Dolphins | -4.39 | 0.72 | -5.10 |
| Buccaneers | -4.55 | 3.86 | -8.40 |
| Panthers | -4.81 | -7.28 | 2.50 |
| Commanders | -5.09 | 2.74 | -7.80 |
| Raiders | -6.18 | -5.45 | -0.70 |
| Cardinals | -7.86 | 0.58 | -8.40 |
| Titans | -9.33 | -9.40 | 0.10 |
| Jets | -10.49 | -3.87 | -6.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 284 matches played, 172 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Patriots | Jan 26 | 7 – 10 | -5.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Seahawks vs. Rams | Jan 26 | 31 – 27 | 6.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for the Super Bowl
Here are the predictions for the Super Bowl. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patriots vs. Seahawks | Feb 09 | Seahawks | -1.80 |