Posts filed under Sports statistics (1566)

June 10, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.13 12.09 2.00
Bulls 11.28 8.83 2.50
Glasgow 6.79 9.39 -2.60
Stormers 5.77 6.75 -1.00
Munster 4.95 9.28 -4.30
Edinburgh 3.68 0.09 3.60
Sharks 2.93 -2.94 5.90
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Scarlets 0.62 -10.65 11.30
Lions -1.37 6.73 -8.10
Connacht -1.88 -0.76 -1.10
Cardiff Rugby -2.01 -2.55 0.50
Ospreys -2.18 -2.51 0.30
Benetton -2.30 1.02 -3.30
Ulster -4.44 2.52 -7.00
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Zebre -12.09 -16.17 4.10
Dragons -18.16 -15.41 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 150 matches played, 107 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Leinster vs. Glasgow Jun 08 37 – 19 11.40 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Sharks Jun 08 25 – 13 10.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leinster vs. Bulls Jun 15 Leinster 8.30

 

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Top 14 Predictions for the Quarter-finals

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Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 14.02 8.76 5.30
Toulon 4.79 5.32 -0.50
Bordeaux Begles 4.39 3.96 0.40
Clermont 3.05 0.41 2.60
Stade Rochelais 2.17 4.85 -2.70
Racing 92 1.31 2.75 -1.40
Section Paloise 0.95 1.38 -0.40
Castres Olympique 0.73 -0.09 0.80
Montpellier 0.51 -0.96 1.50
Bayonne -0.07 -1.69 1.60
Lyon -1.06 -0.18 -0.90
Stade Francais -2.54 1.86 -4.40
USA Perpignan -3.88 -0.66 -3.20
Vannes -8.65 -10.00 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 182 matches played, 137 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Toulon Jun 08 18 – 10 1.90 TRUE
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Vannes Jun 08 59 – 28 18.40 TRUE
3 Lyon vs. Racing 92 Jun 08 34 – 47 5.40 FALSE
4 Montpellier vs. Clermont Jun 08 10 – 23 5.50 FALSE
5 Section Paloise vs. Stade Rochelais Jun 08 32 – 18 5.90 TRUE
6 Stade Francais vs. Castres Olympique Jun 08 21 – 10 3.00 TRUE
7 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain Jun 08 42 – 35 -12.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Toulon vs. Castres Olympique Jun 15 Toulon 11.90
2 Bayonne vs. Clermont Jun 14 Bayonne 4.50

 

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Super Rugby Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 14.01 11.43 2.60
Blues 11.63 14.92 -3.30
Crusaders 10.34 8.99 1.40
Hurricanes 9.86 10.97 -1.10
Brumbies 6.84 6.19 0.60
Reds 2.36 1.35 1.00
Highlanders -2.95 -2.50 -0.40
Waratahs -6.93 -5.17 -1.80
Western Force -7.15 -6.41 -0.70
Fijian Drua -8.52 -7.98 -0.50
Moana Pasifika -8.96 -11.25 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Reds Jun 06 32 – 12 11.20 TRUE
2 Chiefs vs. Blues Jun 07 19 – 20 6.60 FALSE
3 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Jun 07 35 – 28 0.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Blues Jun 13 Crusaders 2.20
2 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Jun 14 Chiefs 11.20

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 10.82 5.55 5.30
Sale Sharks 6.93 4.73 2.20
Leicester Tigers 5.48 3.27 2.20
Saracens 5.27 9.68 -4.40
Gloucester 4.57 -9.04 13.60
Bristol 3.83 9.58 -5.80
Northampton Saints -1.27 7.50 -8.80
Harlequins -2.64 -2.73 0.10
Exeter Chiefs -4.28 1.23 -5.50
Newcastle Falcons -17.96 -19.02 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 92 matches played, 64 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Bristol Jun 07 34 – 20 13.40 TRUE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Jun 08 21 – 16 5.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers Jun 15 Bath 5.30

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.54 9.29 1.20
Panthers 4.95 8.50 -3.60
Roosters 4.83 7.44 -2.60
Sharks 3.43 5.10 -1.70
Sea Eagles 3.03 2.97 0.10
Bulldogs 2.76 0.07 2.70
Dolphins 1.81 -1.96 3.80
Raiders 1.65 -3.61 5.30
Cowboys 1.01 4.11 -3.10
Warriors 0.98 -1.68 2.70
Broncos -0.78 -1.82 1.00
Knights -3.37 -0.05 -3.30
Eels -4.58 -3.02 -1.60
Dragons -4.87 -4.55 -0.30
Rabbitohs -4.94 -4.35 -0.60
Titans -8.03 -5.50 -2.50
Wests Tigers -8.42 -10.97 2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 60 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Jun 05 26 – 22 -4.30 FALSE
2 Storm vs. Cowboys Jun 06 38 – 14 11.30 TRUE
3 Dolphins vs. Dragons Jun 06 56 – 6 6.40 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Warriors Jun 07 10 – 40 8.90 FALSE
5 Broncos vs. Titans Jun 07 44 – 14 8.40 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Jun 08 36 – 12 8.10 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jun 08 14 – 18 -11.10 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Eels Jun 09 30 – 12 9.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Dragons Jun 12 Sharks 11.30
2 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jun 13 Sea Eagles -8.10
3 Knights vs. Roosters Jun 14 Roosters -5.20
4 Cowboys vs. Dolphins Jun 14 Cowboys 2.20
5 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Jun 15 Bulldogs -7.70

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 15

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Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 20.67 15.04 5.60
Collingwood 20.28 5.39 14.90
Western Bulldogs 19.90 18.20 1.70
Adelaide Crows 18.92 2.69 16.20
Brisbane Lions 14.37 22.65 -8.30
Hawthorn Hawks 12.92 21.95 -9.00
Fremantle Dockers 8.32 5.99 2.30
Gold Coast Suns 4.34 -6.41 10.80
GWS Giants 2.44 9.08 -6.60
Carlton Blues 0.23 5.01 -4.80
Sydney Swans -0.40 12.60 -13.00
Melbourne Demons -1.79 -0.21 -1.60
St Kilda Saints -3.28 0.89 -4.20
Port Adelaide Power -4.49 7.63 -12.10
Essendon Bombers -12.07 -10.15 -1.90
North Melbourne -26.66 -37.08 10.40
Richmond Tigers -32.33 -31.00 -1.30
West Coast Eagles -33.76 -34.67 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 113 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Bulldogs vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jun 05 59 – 81 11.80 FALSE
2 Adelaide Crows vs. Brisbane Lions Jun 06 68 – 63 17.60 TRUE
3 Richmond Tigers vs. Sydney Swans Jun 07 36 – 80 -17.00 TRUE
4 Geelong Cats vs. Gold Coast Suns Jun 07 61 – 37 19.20 TRUE
5 GWS Giants vs. Port Adelaide Power Jun 07 50 – 66 23.40 FALSE
6 North Melbourne vs. West Coast Eagles Jun 08 62 – 52 -6.50 FALSE
7 Carlton Blues vs. Essendon Bombers Jun 08 78 – 70 13.60 TRUE
8 Melbourne Demons vs. Collingwood Jun 09 71 – 72 -25.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 St Kilda Saints vs. Western Bulldogs Jun 12 Western Bulldogs -23.20
2 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Adelaide Crows Jun 13 Hawthorn Hawks 5.00
3 Brisbane Lions vs. GWS Giants Jun 14 Brisbane Lions 22.90
4 Essendon Bombers vs. Geelong Cats Jun 14 Geelong Cats -21.70
5 North Melbourne vs. Fremantle Dockers Jun 14 Fremantle Dockers -46.00
6 Port Adelaide Power vs. Melbourne Demons Jun 15 Port Adelaide Power 8.30
7 West Coast Eagles vs. Carlton Blues Jun 15 Carlton Blues -23.00

 

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June 3, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.40 12.09 1.30
Bulls 11.12 8.83 2.30
Glasgow 7.51 9.39 -1.90
Stormers 5.77 6.75 -1.00
Munster 4.95 9.28 -4.30
Edinburgh 3.68 0.09 3.60
Sharks 3.09 -2.94 6.00
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Scarlets 0.62 -10.65 11.30
Lions -1.37 6.73 -8.10
Connacht -1.88 -0.76 -1.10
Cardiff Rugby -2.01 -2.55 0.50
Ospreys -2.18 -2.51 0.30
Benetton -2.30 1.02 -3.30
Ulster -4.44 2.52 -7.00
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Zebre -12.09 -16.17 4.10
Dragons -18.16 -15.41 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 148 matches played, 105 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Stormers May 31 36 – 18 5.30 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Edinburgh May 31 42 – 33 14.00 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Scarlets Jun 01 33 – 21 20.00 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Munster Jun 01 25 – 24 4.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leinster vs. Glasgow Jun 08 Leinster 11.40
2 Bulls vs. Sharks Jun 08 Bulls 10.50

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 26

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Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 14.74 8.76 6.00
Toulon 5.15 5.32 -0.20
Bordeaux Begles 3.98 3.96 0.00
Stade Rochelais 2.47 4.85 -2.40
Clermont 2.45 0.41 2.00
Montpellier 1.17 -0.96 2.10
Castres Olympique 1.06 -0.09 1.20
Section Paloise 0.70 1.38 -0.70
Racing 92 0.61 2.75 -2.10
Bayonne -0.41 -1.69 1.30
Lyon -0.48 -0.18 -0.30
Stade Francais -2.88 1.86 -4.70
USA Perpignan -4.58 -0.66 -3.90
Vannes -8.26 -10.00 1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 175 matches played, 133 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Bayonne Jun 01 33 – 3 5.30 TRUE
2 Clermont vs. Stade Francais Jun 01 55 – 20 9.10 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. Montpellier Jun 01 25 – 27 8.00 FALSE
4 Stade Rochelais vs. USA Perpignan Jun 01 38 – 15 11.90 TRUE
5 Vannes vs. Section Paloise Jun 01 26 – 52 -1.00 TRUE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon Jun 02 43 – 3 19.10 TRUE
7 Toulon vs. Bordeaux Begles Jun 02 27 – 10 6.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Toulon Jun 08 Bayonne 1.90
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Vannes Jun 08 Bordeaux Begles 18.40
3 Lyon vs. Racing 92 Jun 08 Lyon 5.40
4 Montpellier vs. Clermont Jun 08 Montpellier 5.50
5 Section Paloise vs. Stade Rochelais Jun 08 Section Paloise 5.90
6 Stade Francais vs. Castres Olympique Jun 08 Stade Francais 3.00
7 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain Jun 08 Stade Toulousain -12.00

 

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Super Rugby Predictions for the Quarter-finals

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Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 14.37 11.43 2.90
Blues 11.28 14.92 -3.60
Hurricanes 10.35 10.97 -0.60
Crusaders 9.94 8.99 1.00
Brumbies 6.35 6.19 0.20
Reds 2.76 1.35 1.40
Highlanders -2.95 -2.50 -0.40
Waratahs -6.93 -5.17 -1.80
Western Force -7.15 -6.41 -0.70
Fijian Drua -8.52 -7.98 -0.50
Moana Pasifika -8.96 -11.25 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 55 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs May 30 24 – 41 -13.30 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Crusaders May 30 31 – 33 0.80 FALSE
3 Blues vs. Waratahs May 31 46 – 6 20.70 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Moana Pasifika May 31 64 – 12 20.60 TRUE
5 Reds vs. Fijian Drua May 31 52 – 7 12.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Reds Jun 06 Crusaders 11.20
2 Chiefs vs. Blues Jun 07 Chiefs 6.60
3 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Jun 07 Brumbies 0.00

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 10.75 5.55 5.20
Sale Sharks 6.93 4.73 2.20
Leicester Tigers 5.49 3.27 2.20
Saracens 5.27 9.68 -4.40
Gloucester 4.57 -9.04 13.60
Bristol 3.89 9.58 -5.70
Northampton Saints -1.27 7.50 -8.80
Harlequins -2.64 -2.73 0.10
Exeter Chiefs -4.28 1.23 -5.50
Newcastle Falcons -17.96 -19.02 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Harlequins Jun 01 52 – 26 9.80 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Jun 01 26 – 30 -4.90 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Northampton Saints Jun 01 41 – 26 11.70 TRUE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Falcons Jun 01 42 – 20 31.90 TRUE
5 Saracens vs. Bath Jun 01 36 – 26 -1.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Bristol Jun 07 Bath 13.40
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Jun 08 Leicester Tigers 5.10

 

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