Posts filed under Sports statistics (453)

September 19, 2017

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 6

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 19.04 14.78 4.30
Wellington 8.87 -1.62 10.50
Taranaki 6.27 7.04 -0.80
North Harbour 5.62 -1.27 6.90
Tasman 4.82 9.54 -4.70
Otago 4.03 -0.34 4.40
Counties Manukau -1.13 5.70 -6.80
Manawatu -2.01 -3.59 1.60
Auckland -2.34 6.11 -8.40
Waikato -2.59 -0.26 -2.30
Northland -4.38 -12.37 8.00
Bay of Plenty -4.61 -3.98 -0.60
Hawke’s Bay -13.56 -5.85 -7.70
Southland -20.62 -16.50 -4.10

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau Sep 13 78 – 5 20.80 TRUE
2 Northland vs. North Harbour Sep 14 22 – 31 -5.40 TRUE
3 Southland vs. Auckland Sep 15 17 – 27 -15.20 TRUE
4 Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 15 29 – 7 13.30 TRUE
5 Waikato vs. Manawatu Sep 16 10 – 23 7.00 FALSE
6 Otago vs. Tasman Sep 16 27 – 29 4.40 FALSE
7 Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 17 33 – 14 20.60 TRUE
8 Wellington vs. Canterbury Sep 17 60 – 14 -12.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Sep 20 Bay of Plenty 20.00
2 Otago vs. Auckland Sep 21 Otago 10.40
3 Manawatu vs. Northland Sep 22 Manawatu 6.40
4 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 23 Canterbury -9.40
5 Waikato vs. Wellington Sep 23 Wellington -7.50
6 Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki Sep 23 Taranaki -15.80
7 Bay of Plenty vs. Counties Manukau Sep 24 Bay of Plenty 0.50
8 Tasman vs. Southland Sep 24 Tasman 29.40

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 11

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 4.99 2.15 2.80
Western Province 3.46 3.30 0.20
Cheetahs 3.23 4.33 -1.10
Lions 3.02 7.41 -4.40
Blue Bulls 0.47 2.32 -1.90
Pumas -7.01 -10.63 3.60
Griquas -10.91 -11.62 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Western Province Sep 15 22 – 12 -7.10 FALSE
2 Griquas vs. Sharks Sep 16 22 – 40 -10.10 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Blue Bulls Sep 16 36 – 33 7.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Blue Bulls Sep 23 Sharks 9.00
2 Western Province vs. Griquas Sep 23 Western Province 18.90
3 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Sep 23 Cheetahs 14.70

 

September 12, 2017

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 2

Team Ratings for Finals Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.43 8.49 5.90
Broncos 6.56 4.36 2.20
Raiders 4.07 9.94 -5.90
Panthers 2.77 6.08 -3.30
Cowboys 2.68 6.90 -4.20
Sharks 2.55 5.84 -3.30
Eels 2.51 -0.81 3.30
Roosters 1.34 -1.17 2.50
Dragons -0.94 -7.74 6.80
Sea Eagles -1.11 -2.98 1.90
Bulldogs -3.55 -1.34 -2.20
Wests Tigers -3.72 -3.89 0.20
Rabbitohs -3.84 -1.82 -2.00
Warriors -7.23 -6.02 -1.20
Titans -9.03 -0.98 -8.10
Knights -9.54 -16.94 7.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 196 matches played, 118 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Broncos Sep 08 24 – 22 -2.50 FALSE
2 Storm vs. Eels Sep 09 18 – 16 17.90 TRUE
3 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Sep 09 10 – 22 -2.30 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Cowboys Sep 10 14 – 15 4.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 2

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Panthers Sep 15 Broncos 7.30
2 Eels vs. Cowboys Sep 16 Eels 3.30

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 5

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 20.07 14.78 5.30
Taranaki 5.49 7.04 -1.50
North Harbour 5.30 -1.27 6.60
Otago 4.60 -0.34 4.90
Tasman 4.24 9.54 -5.30
Counties Manukau 3.29 5.70 -2.40
Wellington 3.14 -1.62 4.80
Waikato -0.79 -0.26 -0.50
Auckland -1.87 6.11 -8.00
Manawatu -3.81 -3.59 -0.20
Bay of Plenty -3.83 -3.98 0.10
Northland -4.06 -12.37 8.30
Hawke’s Bay -13.28 -5.85 -7.40
Southland -21.09 -16.50 -4.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 06 40 – 27 17.70 TRUE
2 Counties Manukau vs. North Harbour Sep 07 18 – 27 4.40 FALSE
3 Canterbury vs. Southland Sep 08 78 – 20 42.30 TRUE
4 Manawatu vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 08 17 – 20 5.60 FALSE
5 Auckland vs. Taranaki Sep 09 38 – 49 -1.70 TRUE
6 Northland vs. Waikato Sep 09 37 – 7 -5.70 FALSE
7 Tasman vs. Wellington Sep 10 37 – 35 5.40 TRUE
8 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Sep 10 21 – 64 -7.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau Sep 13 Canterbury 20.80
2 Northland vs. North Harbour Sep 14 North Harbour -5.40
3 Southland vs. Auckland Sep 15 Auckland -15.20
4 Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 15 Taranaki 13.30
5 Waikato vs. Manawatu Sep 16 Waikato 7.00
6 Otago vs. Tasman Sep 16 Otago 4.40
7 Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 17 Counties Manukau 20.60
8 Wellington vs. Canterbury Sep 17 Canterbury -12.90

 

September 5, 2017

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 15.68 8.49 7.20
Broncos 6.96 4.36 2.60
Raiders 4.07 9.94 -5.90
Sharks 2.98 5.84 -2.90
Cowboys 2.25 6.90 -4.70
Panthers 2.00 6.08 -4.10
Eels 1.26 -0.81 2.10
Roosters 0.93 -1.17 2.10
Sea Eagles -0.33 -2.98 2.60
Dragons -0.94 -7.74 6.80
Bulldogs -3.55 -1.34 -2.20
Wests Tigers -3.72 -3.89 0.20
Rabbitohs -3.84 -1.82 -2.00
Warriors -7.23 -6.02 -1.20
Titans -9.03 -0.98 -8.10
Knights -9.54 -16.94 7.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 192 matches played, 116 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 31 10 – 20 0.50 FALSE
2 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Sep 01 22 – 16 9.20 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Titans Sep 02 20 – 16 15.20 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Sep 02 28 – 12 -1.60 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Raiders Sep 02 32 – 6 13.10 TRUE
6 Knights vs. Sharks Sep 03 0 – 18 -7.30 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Sep 03 20 – 26 8.40 FALSE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Sep 03 28 – 16 6.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Broncos Sep 08 Broncos -2.50
2 Storm vs. Eels Sep 09 Storm 17.90
3 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Sep 09 Panthers -2.30
4 Sharks vs. Cowboys Sep 10 Sharks 4.20

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 4.88 2.15 2.70
Cheetahs 4.29 4.33 -0.00
Lions 3.05 7.41 -4.40
Western Province 2.99 3.30 -0.30
Blue Bulls 0.09 2.32 -2.20
Pumas -8.12 -10.63 2.50
Griquas -9.93 -11.62 1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blue Bulls vs. Griquas Sep 01 44 – 42 15.50 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Sep 02 45 – 15 3.50 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Pumas Sep 02 29 – 28 16.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Lions Sep 08 Lions -8.50
2 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Sep 09 Western Province 3.20
3 Pumas vs. Sharks Sep 09 Sharks -8.50

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 4

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 18.66 14.78 3.90
Taranaki 4.65 7.04 -2.40
Tasman 4.59 9.54 -5.00
Counties Manukau 4.49 5.70 -1.20
North Harbour 4.09 -1.27 5.40
Wellington 3.23 -1.62 4.80
Waikato 2.42 -0.26 2.70
Otago 1.40 -0.34 1.70
Auckland -1.03 6.11 -7.10
Manawatu -3.04 -3.59 0.50
Bay of Plenty -4.60 -3.98 -0.60
Northland -7.27 -12.37 5.10
Hawke’s Bay -10.51 -5.85 -4.70
Southland -19.68 -16.50 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Auckland vs. Waikato Aug 30 27 – 35 7.00 FALSE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Wellington Aug 31 10 – 31 -0.10 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Canterbury Sep 01 10 – 53 -21.20 TRUE
4 Otago vs. Manawatu Sep 02 40 – 30 8.10 TRUE
5 Southland vs. Northland Sep 02 13 – 44 -3.50 TRUE
6 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Sep 02 30 – 27 4.40 TRUE
7 Waikato vs. Tasman Sep 03 29 – 31 1.30 FALSE
8 North Harbour vs. Auckland Sep 03 57 – 10 -0.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 06 Wellington 17.70
2 Counties Manukau vs. North Harbour Sep 07 Counties Manukau 4.40
3 Canterbury vs. Southland Sep 08 Canterbury 42.30
4 Manawatu vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 08 Manawatu 5.60
5 Auckland vs. Taranaki Sep 09 Taranaki -1.70
6 Northland vs. Waikato Sep 09 Waikato -5.70
7 Tasman vs. Wellington Sep 10 Tasman 5.40
8 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Sep 10 Otago -7.90

 

August 29, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 26

Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.65 8.49 6.20
Broncos 6.13 4.36 1.80
Raiders 5.10 9.94 -4.80
Panthers 3.37 6.08 -2.70
Cowboys 3.08 6.90 -3.80
Sharks 2.13 5.84 -3.70
Roosters 1.83 -1.17 3.00
Eels 1.54 -0.81 2.30
Dragons 0.20 -7.74 7.90
Sea Eagles -1.70 -2.98 1.30
Rabbitohs -4.12 -1.82 -2.30
Wests Tigers -4.17 -3.89 -0.30
Bulldogs -4.69 -1.34 -3.40
Warriors -6.79 -6.02 -0.80
Knights -8.68 -16.94 8.30
Titans -9.92 -0.98 -8.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 111 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 24 34 – 52 12.70 FALSE
2 Raiders vs. Knights Aug 25 46 – 28 17.10 TRUE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Aug 25 14 – 22 -2.90 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Bulldogs Aug 26 14 – 26 0.20 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Aug 26 64 – 6 16.00 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Roosters Aug 26 14 – 16 4.90 FALSE
7 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Aug 27 21 – 22 -1.10 TRUE
8 Panthers vs. Dragons Aug 27 14 – 16 8.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 31 Cowboys 0.50
2 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Sep 01 Eels 9.20
3 Roosters vs. Titans Sep 02 Roosters 15.20
4 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Sep 02 Panthers -1.60
5 Storm vs. Raiders Sep 02 Storm 13.10
6 Knights vs. Sharks Sep 03 Sharks -7.30
7 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Sep 03 Dragons 8.40
8 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Sep 03 Wests Tigers 6.60

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 16.70 14.78 1.90
Taranaki 4.78 7.04 -2.30
Auckland 4.47 6.11 -1.60
Counties Manukau 4.36 5.70 -1.30
Tasman 4.16 9.54 -5.40
Waikato 1.50 -0.26 1.80
Wellington 1.34 -1.62 3.00
Otago 1.23 -0.34 1.60
North Harbour -0.07 -1.27 1.20
Bay of Plenty -2.72 -3.98 1.30
Manawatu -2.87 -3.59 0.70
Hawke’s Bay -8.55 -5.85 -2.70
Northland -9.75 -12.37 2.60
Southland -17.20 -16.50 -0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southland vs. North Harbour Aug 24 20 – 45 -10.50 TRUE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 25 46 – 17 5.60 TRUE
3 Waikato vs. Counties Manukau Aug 25 33 – 21 -1.30 FALSE
4 Wellington vs. Taranaki Aug 26 42 – 26 -2.80 FALSE
5 Auckland vs. Northland Aug 26 10 – 8 21.80 TRUE
6 Manawatu vs. Tasman Aug 27 35 – 20 -7.00 FALSE
7 Canterbury vs. Otago Aug 27 30 – 24 22.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Auckland vs. Waikato Aug 30 Auckland 7.00
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Wellington Aug 31 Wellington -0.10
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Canterbury Sep 01 Canterbury -21.20
4 Otago vs. Manawatu Sep 02 Otago 8.10
5 Southland vs. Northland Sep 02 Northland -3.50
6 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Sep 02 Taranaki 4.40
7 Waikato vs. Tasman Sep 03 Waikato 1.30
8 North Harbour vs. Auckland Sep 03 Auckland -0.50

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cheetahs 5.08 4.33 0.70
Sharks 4.09 2.15 1.90
Lions 3.60 7.41 -3.80
Western Province 2.99 3.30 -0.30
Blue Bulls 0.58 2.32 -1.70
Pumas -8.67 -10.63 2.00
Griquas -10.42 -11.62 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Blue Bulls Aug 25 51 – 15 -7.00 FALSE
2 Cheetahs vs. Lions Aug 26 30 – 24 6.00 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Sharks Aug 26 20 – 21 4.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blue Bulls vs. Griquas Sep 01 Blue Bulls 15.50
2 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Sep 02 Sharks 3.50
3 Lions vs. Pumas Sep 02 Lions 16.80