NRL Predictions for Round 8
Team Ratings for Round 8
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 14.05 | 8.77 | 5.30 |
| Roosters | 5.88 | 9.50 | -3.60 |
| Sharks | 5.60 | 7.25 | -1.60 |
| Broncos | 4.72 | 7.06 | -2.30 |
| Storm | 3.44 | 6.96 | -3.50 |
| Warriors | 2.91 | -1.18 | 4.10 |
| Sea Eagles | 1.97 | 0.21 | 1.80 |
| Bulldogs | -0.08 | 2.13 | -2.20 |
| Dolphins | -0.47 | 1.85 | -2.30 |
| Wests Tigers | -1.39 | -7.26 | 5.90 |
| Raiders | -1.72 | 1.62 | -3.30 |
| Rabbitohs | -2.32 | -5.05 | 2.70 |
| Cowboys | -3.12 | -2.69 | -0.40 |
| Eels | -4.67 | -0.37 | -4.30 |
| Titans | -5.40 | -8.02 | 2.60 |
| Knights | -8.29 | -14.06 | 5.80 |
| Dragons | -11.11 | -6.72 | -4.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 56 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 53.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles | Apr 16 | 6 – 38 | 3.50 | FALSE |
| 2 | Raiders vs. Storm | Apr 17 | 26 – 22 | -2.60 | FALSE |
| 3 | Dolphins vs. Panthers | Apr 17 | 22 – 23 | -12.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Warriors vs. Titans | Apr 18 | 28 – 20 | 13.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Rabbitohs vs. Dragons | Apr 18 | 30 – 12 | 11.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Wests Tigers vs. Broncos | Apr 18 | 20 – 21 | -2.40 | TRUE |
| 7 | Roosters vs. Knights | Apr 19 | 38 – 24 | 19.30 | TRUE |
| 8 | Eels vs. Bulldogs | Apr 19 | 38 – 20 | -3.60 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 8
Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wests Tigers vs. Raiders | Apr 23 | Wests Tigers | 4.30 |
| 2 | Cowboys vs. Sharks | Apr 24 | Sharks | -4.70 |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Bulldogs | Apr 24 | Broncos | 8.80 |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Roosters | Apr 25 | Roosters | -21.00 |
| 5 | Warriors vs. Dolphins | Apr 25 | Warriors | 7.40 |
| 6 | Storm vs. Rabbitohs | Apr 25 | Storm | 9.80 |
| 7 | Knights vs. Panthers | Apr 26 | Panthers | -18.30 |
| 8 | Sea Eagles vs. Eels | Apr 26 | Sea Eagles | 10.60 |