Posts filed under Sports statistics (1803)

September 15, 2026

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 8

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Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 9.82 10.29 -0.50
Hawke’s Bay 8.70 5.18 3.50
Otago 7.04 5.80 1.20
Taranaki 5.29 7.57 -2.30
North Harbour 2.68 -4.18 6.90
Bay of Plenty 2.02 9.80 -7.80
Northland 1.86 -5.96 7.80
Waikato 0.38 -0.83 1.20
Tasman -0.22 0.68 -0.90
Auckland -1.44 -2.64 1.20
Counties Manukau -2.10 3.63 -5.70
Wellington -6.91 2.70 -9.60
Southland -10.00 -10.83 0.80
Manawatu -10.97 -15.05 4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 49 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Manawatu vs. Taranaki Sept 10 27 – 25 -15.60 FALSE
2 Otago vs. Tasman Sept 11 57 – 33 8.10 TRUE
3 Auckland vs. Counties Manukau Sept 12 43 – 33 1.70 TRUE
4 Northland vs. Waikato Sept 12 34 – 17 2.40 TRUE
5 Canterbury vs. Wellington Sept 12 66 – 19 16.00 TRUE
6 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Sept 13 24 – 31 11.50 FALSE
7 Southland vs. Bay of Plenty Sept 13 43 – 12 -14.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Counties Manukau vs. Otago Sept 17 Otago -6.10
2 Tasman vs. Auckland Sept 18 Tasman 4.20
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Sept 19 Hawke’s Bay -3.70
4 Waikato vs. Manawatu Sept 19 Waikato 14.30
5 Wellington vs. Northland Sept 19 Northland -5.80
6 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sept 20 Canterbury -4.10
7 Taranaki vs. Southland Sept 20 Taranaki 18.30

 

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AFL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

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Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sydney Swans 26.28 0.56 25.70
Geelong Cats 24.17 26.75 -2.60
Brisbane Lions 23.90 26.20 -2.30
Hawthorn Hawks 20.22 22.83 -2.60
Fremantle Dockers 19.90 6.56 13.30
Adelaide Crows 12.34 15.32 -3.00
Melbourne Demons 9.05 1.64 7.40
Carlton Blues 6.99 -4.77 11.80
Western Bulldogs 4.93 26.06 -21.10
Collingwood 3.06 11.76 -8.70
GWS Giants -0.48 9.54 -10.00
Gold Coast Suns -1.87 10.24 -12.10
St Kilda Saints -3.24 -7.63 4.40
North Melbourne -10.83 -21.71 10.90
Port Adelaide Power -18.07 -14.65 -3.40
West Coast Eagles -33.36 -39.36 6.00
Richmond Tigers -33.74 -29.44 -4.30
Essendon Bombers -37.26 -27.89 -9.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 215 matches played, 153 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Geelong Cats Sept 11 120 – 106 5.10 TRUE
2 Brisbane Lions vs. Adelaide Crows Sept 12 144 – 91 17.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sydney Swans vs. Fremantle Dockers Sept 18 Sydney Swans 17.40
2 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Brisbane Lions Sept 19 Hawthorn Hawks 7.30

 

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September 8, 2026

Top 14 Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.14 12.37 -0.20
Montpellier 5.79 6.36 -0.60
Stade Rochelais 5.20 4.97 0.20
Stade Francais 5.14 5.68 -0.50
Bordeaux Begles 5.13 3.70 1.40
Section Paloise 4.75 4.18 0.60
Clermont 4.05 4.21 -0.20
Racing 92 2.16 3.59 -1.40
Toulon -0.56 -0.81 0.30
Castres Olympique -0.72 -0.29 -0.40
Lyon -0.78 -0.94 0.20
Bayonne -2.28 -2.02 -0.30
USA Perpignan -4.85 -5.39 0.50
Vannes -9.57 -10.00 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Toulon Sept 06 27 – 26 5.30 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Vannes Sept 06 29 – 20 16.20 TRUE
3 Lyon vs. Clermont Sept 06 40 – 36 1.30 TRUE
4 Montpellier vs. Section Paloise Sept 06 19 – 27 8.70 FALSE
5 Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan Sept 06 28 – 26 17.60 TRUE
6 Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 Sept 06 64 – 5 6.60 TRUE
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Toulousain Sept 07 30 – 27 -0.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Clermont vs. Stade Francais Sept 13 Clermont 5.40
2 Racing 92 vs. Lyon Sept 13 Racing 92 9.40
3 Section Paloise vs. Bayonne Sept 13 Section Paloise 13.50
4 USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique Sept 13 USA Perpignan 2.40
5 Vannes vs. Montpellier Sept 13 Montpellier -8.90
6 Toulon vs. Stade Rochelais Sept 13 Toulon 0.70
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux Begles Sept 14 Stade Toulousain 13.50

 

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NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 11.08 8.77 2.30
Warriors 10.29 -1.18 11.50
Dolphins 6.32 1.85 4.50
Sharks 5.14 7.25 -2.10
Roosters 3.87 9.50 -5.60
Rabbitohs 3.36 -5.05 8.40
Storm 3.08 6.96 -3.90
Sea Eagles 2.09 0.21 1.90
Raiders 0.57 1.62 -1.00
Knights -0.92 -14.06 13.10
Bulldogs -1.37 2.13 -3.50
Eels -4.11 -0.37 -3.70
Cowboys -4.32 -2.69 -1.60
Broncos -5.52 7.06 -12.60
Titans -7.06 -8.02 1.00
Dragons -10.59 -6.72 -3.90
Wests Tigers -11.91 -7.26 -4.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 204 matches played, 131 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Sept 03 20 – 34 11.60 FALSE
2 Titans vs. Dolphins Sept 04 20 – 24 -10.90 TRUE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sept 04 50 – 20 -9.50 FALSE
4 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Sept 05 31 – 30 14.20 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Sept 05 30 – 50 2.20 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Storm Sept 05 20 – 24 7.90 FALSE
7 Dragons vs. Eels Sept 05 24 – 22 -3.70 FALSE
8 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Sept 05 38 – 10 21.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Sept 11 Rabbitohs 8.30
2 Warriors vs. Dolphins Sept 12 Warriors 8.00
3 Sharks vs. Cowboys Sept 12 Sharks 13.50
4 Panthers vs. Roosters Sept 13 Panthers 11.20

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 7

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Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawke’s Bay 9.94 5.18 4.80
Canterbury 7.95 10.29 -2.30
Taranaki 6.49 7.57 -1.10
Otago 5.94 5.80 0.10
Bay of Plenty 4.55 9.80 -5.30
North Harbour 1.44 -4.18 5.60
Waikato 1.41 -0.83 2.20
Tasman 0.88 0.68 0.20
Northland 0.84 -5.96 6.80
Counties Manukau -1.10 3.63 -4.70
Auckland -2.43 -2.64 0.20
Wellington -5.04 2.70 -7.70
Manawatu -12.16 -15.05 2.90
Southland -12.52 -10.83 -1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Taranaki vs. Auckland Sept 03 28 – 12 10.60 TRUE
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Sept 04 35 – 24 5.70 TRUE
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Sept 05 12 – 29 24.40 FALSE
4 Tasman vs. Wellington Sept 05 42 – 28 7.30 TRUE
5 Waikato vs. Canterbury Sept 05 14 – 36 -0.80 TRUE
6 Counties Manukau vs. Southland Sept 06 47 – 24 12.90 TRUE
7 North Harbour vs. Northland Sept 06 57 – 42 1.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Manawatu vs. Taranaki Sept 10 Taranaki -15.60
2 Otago vs. Tasman Sept 11 Otago 8.10
3 Auckland vs. Counties Manukau Sept 12 Auckland 1.70
4 Northland vs. Waikato Sept 12 Northland 2.40
5 Canterbury vs. Wellington Sept 12 Canterbury 16.00
6 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Sept 13 Hawke’s Bay 11.50
7 Southland vs. Bay of Plenty Sept 13 Bay of Plenty -14.10

 

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NFL Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Seahawks 12.03 12.03 -0.00
Patriots 8.11 8.11 -0.00
Rams 6.16 6.16 0.00
Texans 5.51 5.51 -0.00
Lions 5.20 5.20 0.00
Bills 4.81 4.81 0.00
Jaguars 4.17 4.17 0.00
Broncos 4.07 4.07 -0.00
Vikings 2.79 2.79 0.00
Ravens 2.53 2.53 0.00
Packers 1.72 1.72 0.00
Bears 1.18 1.18 0.00
Chargers 1.16 1.16 0.00
Eagles 0.73 0.73 -0.00
49ers 0.63 0.63 0.00
Bengals 0.39 0.39 -0.00
Steelers -0.43 -0.43 -0.00
Colts -0.74 -0.74 -0.00
Chiefs -1.34 -1.34 0.00
Falcons -1.39 -1.39 -0.00
Giants -2.38 -2.38 0.00
Browns -2.50 -2.50 -0.00
Saints -3.38 -3.38 -0.00
Cowboys -3.42 -3.42 0.00
Buccaneers -3.95 -3.95 0.00
Dolphins -3.99 -3.99 -0.00
Commanders -4.65 -4.65 0.00
Panthers -4.66 -4.66 -0.00
Raiders -5.72 -5.72 -0.00
Cardinals -7.49 -7.49 0.00
Titans -8.81 -8.81 0.00
Jets -9.84 -9.84 0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Seahawks vs. Patriots Sept 10 Seahawks 3.90
2 Rams vs. 49ers Sept 11 Rams 5.50
3 Panthers vs. Bears Sept 14 Bears -5.80
4 Bengals vs. Buccaneers Sept 14 Bengals 4.30
5 Lions vs. Saints Sept 14 Lions 8.60
6 Texans vs. Bills Sept 14 Texans 0.70
7 Colts vs. Ravens Sept 14 Ravens -3.30
8 Jaguars vs. Browns Sept 14 Jaguars 6.70
9 Steelers vs. Falcons Sept 14 Steelers 1.00
10 Titans vs. Jets Sept 14 Titans 1.00
11 Raiders vs. Dolphins Sept 14 Dolphins -1.70
12 Chargers vs. Cardinals Sept 14 Chargers 8.70
13 Vikings vs. Packers Sept 14 Vikings 1.10
14 Eagles vs. Commanders Sept 14 Eagles 5.40
15 Giants vs. Cowboys Sept 14 Giants 1.00
16 Chiefs vs. Broncos Sept 15 Broncos -5.40

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

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Team Ratings for the Currie Cup Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Griquas 14.61 9.78 4.80
Lions 9.75 14.61 -4.90
Pumas 4.32 5.36 -1.00
Cheetahs -0.37 -2.42 2.10
Boland Cavaliers -2.77 -4.25 1.50
Sharks -3.57 -4.65 1.10
Bulls -7.38 -2.24 -5.10
Stormers -8.39 -10.00 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Lions Sept 06 52 – 12 4.40 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Sept 07 24 – 27 -1.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

Here are the predictions for the Currie Cup Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Pumas Sept 13 Griquas 13.30

 

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AFL Predictions for Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sydney Swans 26.28 0.56 25.70
Geelong Cats 24.97 26.75 -1.80
Brisbane Lions 21.20 26.20 -5.00
Hawthorn Hawks 20.22 22.83 -2.60
Fremantle Dockers 19.11 6.56 12.60
Adelaide Crows 15.04 15.32 -0.30
Melbourne Demons 9.05 1.64 7.40
Carlton Blues 6.99 -4.77 11.80
Western Bulldogs 4.93 26.06 -21.10
Collingwood 3.06 11.76 -8.70
GWS Giants -0.48 9.54 -10.00
Gold Coast Suns -1.87 10.24 -12.10
St Kilda Saints -3.24 -7.63 4.40
North Melbourne -10.83 -21.71 10.90
Port Adelaide Power -18.07 -14.65 -3.40
West Coast Eagles -33.36 -39.36 6.00
Richmond Tigers -33.74 -29.44 -4.30
Essendon Bombers -37.26 -27.89 -9.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 213 matches played, 151 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Sept 03 40 – 72 17.20 FALSE
2 Geelong Cats vs. Carlton Blues Sept 04 107 – 74 2.30 TRUE
3 Sydney Swans vs. Brisbane Lions Sept 05 141 – 88 9.60 TRUE
4 Adelaide Crows vs. Western Bulldogs Sept 05 90 – 68 20.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Geelong Cats Sept 11 Fremantle Dockers 5.10
2 Brisbane Lions vs. Adelaide Crows Sept 12 Brisbane Lions 17.20

 

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September 6, 2026

Top 14 Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

Almost a tradition that I miss the start of a competition. For completeness, here are the predictions. As always, the predictions are not affected at all by the fact that most of the games have already been played.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.37 12.37 -0.00
Montpellier 6.36 6.36 -0.00
Stade Francais 5.68 5.68 0.00
Stade Rochelais 4.97 4.97 0.00
Clermont 4.21 4.21 -0.00
Section Paloise 4.18 4.18 -0.00
Bordeaux Begles 3.70 3.70 -0.00
Racing 92 3.59 3.59 0.00
Castres Olympique -0.29 -0.29 -0.00
Toulon -0.81 -0.81 0.00
Lyon -0.94 -0.94 0.00
Bayonne -2.02 -2.02 0.00
USA Perpignan -5.39 -5.39 -0.00
Vannes -10.00 -10.00 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Toulon Sept 06 Bayonne 5.30
2 Castres Olympique vs. Vannes Sept 06 Castres Olympique 16.20
3 Lyon vs. Clermont Sept 06 Lyon 1.30
4 Montpellier vs. Section Paloise Sept 06 Montpellier 8.70
5 Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan Sept 06 Stade Francais 17.60
6 Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 Sept 06 Bordeaux Begles 6.60
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Toulousain Sept 07 Stade Toulousain -0.90

 

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September 1, 2026

NRL Predictions for Round 27

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Team Ratings for Round 27

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Warriors 11.28 -1.18 12.50
Panthers 10.37 8.77 1.60
Dolphins 7.08 1.85 5.20
Roosters 6.37 9.50 -3.10
Sharks 6.04 7.25 -1.20
Storm 2.18 6.96 -4.80
Sea Eagles 1.10 0.21 0.90
Rabbitohs 0.85 -5.05 5.90
Bulldogs 0.36 2.13 -1.80
Knights -0.92 -14.06 13.10
Raiders -0.96 1.62 -2.60
Cowboys -2.78 -2.69 -0.10
Eels -3.48 -0.37 -3.10
Broncos -7.25 7.06 -14.30
Titans -7.82 -8.02 0.20
Wests Tigers -11.21 -7.26 -4.00
Dragons -11.23 -6.72 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 196 matches played, 128 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Storm Aug 27 20 – 46 -2.20 TRUE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Dragons Aug 28 44 – 10 13.50 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Aug 28 24 – 10 8.90 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Aug 29 22 – 42 -2.10 TRUE
5 Roosters vs. Dolphins Aug 29 12 – 26 6.10 FALSE
6 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers Aug 29 24 – 10 12.00 TRUE
7 Warriors vs. Knights Aug 30 46 – 32 16.80 TRUE
8 Eels vs. Sharks Aug 30 38 – 18 -9.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 27

Here are the predictions for Round 27. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Sept 03 Bulldogs 11.60
2 Titans vs. Dolphins Sept 04 Dolphins -10.90
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sept 04 Roosters -9.50
4 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Sept 05 Warriors 14.20
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Sept 05 Cowboys 2.20
6 Sharks vs. Storm Sept 05 Sharks 7.90
7 Dragons vs. Eels Sept 05 Eels -3.70
8 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Sept 05 Panthers 21.60

 

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