Posts filed under Sports statistics (1768)

July 15, 2025

AFL Predictions for Week 20

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Team Ratings for Week 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Bulldogs 22.37 18.20 4.20
Adelaide Crows 21.38 2.69 18.70
Geelong Cats 19.76 15.04 4.70
Collingwood 19.41 5.39 14.00
Brisbane Lions 17.55 22.65 -5.10
Hawthorn Hawks 14.61 21.95 -7.30
GWS Giants 8.84 9.08 -0.20
Gold Coast Suns 8.02 -6.41 14.40
Fremantle Dockers 6.08 5.99 0.10
Sydney Swans 3.33 12.60 -9.30
Melbourne Demons -0.36 -0.21 -0.20
Port Adelaide Power -3.50 7.63 -11.10
St Kilda Saints -6.65 0.89 -7.50
Carlton Blues -8.46 5.01 -13.50
Essendon Bombers -21.62 -10.15 -11.50
North Melbourne -25.41 -37.08 11.70
West Coast Eagles -33.43 -34.67 1.20
Richmond Tigers -34.32 -31.00 -3.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 152 matches played, 101 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Carlton Blues vs. Brisbane Lions Jul 10 66 – 103 -11.20 TRUE
2 Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Jul 11 69 – 63 -2.40 FALSE
3 Western Bulldogs vs. Adelaide Crows Jul 12 98 – 109 15.90 FALSE
4 GWS Giants vs. Geelong Cats Jul 12 111 – 85 -4.30 FALSE
5 Richmond Tigers vs. Essendon Bombers Jul 12 46 – 37 -16.50 FALSE
6 Fremantle Dockers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jul 12 77 – 64 0.40 TRUE
7 Melbourne Demons vs. North Melbourne Jul 13 119 – 83 22.90 TRUE
8 St Kilda Saints vs. Sydney Swans Jul 13 87 – 92 2.90 FALSE
9 Port Adelaide Power vs. West Coast Eagles Jul 13 87 – 61 43.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 20

Here are the predictions for Week 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Essendon Bombers vs. GWS Giants Jul 17 GWS Giants -19.50
2 Brisbane Lions vs. Western Bulldogs Jul 18 Brisbane Lions 6.20
3 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Port Adelaide Power Jul 19 Hawthorn Hawks 29.10
4 Sydney Swans vs. North Melbourne Jul 19 Sydney Swans 39.70
5 Carlton Blues vs. Melbourne Demons Jul 19 Melbourne Demons -8.10
6 West Coast Eagles vs. Richmond Tigers Jul 19 West Coast Eagles 11.90
7 Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Jul 20 Geelong Cats 37.40
8 Collingwood vs. Fremantle Dockers Jul 20 Collingwood 24.30
9 Adelaide Crows vs. Gold Coast Suns Jul 20 Adelaide Crows 24.40

 

July 8, 2025

NRL Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.37 9.29 1.10
Panthers 5.13 8.50 -3.40
Roosters 4.94 7.44 -2.50
Dolphins 3.65 -1.96 5.60
Sea Eagles 2.59 2.97 -0.40
Bulldogs 2.43 0.07 2.40
Sharks 2.43 5.10 -2.70
Raiders 1.36 -3.61 5.00
Broncos 0.66 -1.82 2.50
Warriors -0.07 -1.68 1.60
Cowboys -1.50 4.11 -5.60
Knights -2.78 -0.05 -2.70
Dragons -4.05 -4.55 0.50
Eels -4.62 -3.02 -1.60
Rabbitohs -5.24 -4.35 -0.90
Wests Tigers -7.61 -10.97 3.40
Titans -7.70 -5.50 -2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 133 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Jul 04 18 – 22 5.80 FALSE
2 Raiders vs. Dragons Jul 05 28 – 24 9.00 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Storm Jul 05 20 – 26 -9.40 TRUE
4 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Jul 06 28 – 30 17.30 FALSE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Jul 06 30 – 12 10.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Dolphins Jul 11 Sharks 1.80
2 Knights vs. Storm Jul 12 Storm -10.20
3 Dragons vs. Roosters Jul 12 Roosters -6.00
4 Cowboys vs. Bulldogs Jul 12 Bulldogs -0.90
5 Warriors vs. Wests Tigers Jul 13 Warriors 11.00
6 Eels vs. Panthers Jul 13 Panthers -6.80
7 Titans vs. Broncos Jul 13 Broncos -5.40

 

AFL Predictions for Week 19

By

Team Ratings for Week 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Bulldogs 24.34 18.20 6.10
Geelong Cats 21.94 15.04 6.90
Collingwood 20.42 5.39 15.00
Adelaide Crows 19.40 2.69 16.70
Brisbane Lions 15.65 22.65 -7.00
Hawthorn Hawks 15.65 21.95 -6.30
Gold Coast Suns 7.01 -6.41 13.40
GWS Giants 6.66 9.08 -2.40
Fremantle Dockers 5.05 5.99 -0.90
Sydney Swans 2.38 12.60 -10.20
Melbourne Demons -1.43 -0.21 -1.20
Port Adelaide Power -2.12 7.63 -9.80
St Kilda Saints -5.70 0.89 -6.60
Carlton Blues -6.56 5.01 -11.60
Essendon Bombers -19.74 -10.15 -9.60
North Melbourne -24.34 -37.08 12.70
West Coast Eagles -34.81 -34.67 -0.10
Richmond Tigers -36.20 -31.00 -5.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 143 matches played, 97 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 North Melbourne vs. Western Bulldogs Jul 03 85 – 134 -48.60 TRUE
2 Carlton Blues vs. Collingwood Jul 04 59 – 115 -22.20 TRUE
3 West Coast Eagles vs. GWS Giants Jul 04 52 – 111 -25.80 TRUE
4 Essendon Bombers vs. Gold Coast Suns Jul 05 74 – 115 -11.50 TRUE
5 Geelong Cats vs. Richmond Tigers Jul 05 124 – 52 68.20 TRUE
6 Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Jul 05 120 – 92 29.00 TRUE
7 St Kilda Saints vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jul 05 74 – 94 -21.80 TRUE
8 Sydney Swans vs. Fremantle Dockers Jul 06 94 – 83 7.50 TRUE
9 Adelaide Crows vs. Melbourne Demons Jul 06 90 – 77 35.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 19

Here are the predictions for Week 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Carlton Blues vs. Brisbane Lions Jul 10 Brisbane Lions -11.20
2 Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Jul 11 Collingwood -2.40
3 Western Bulldogs vs. Adelaide Crows Jul 12 Western Bulldogs 15.90
4 GWS Giants vs. Geelong Cats Jul 12 Geelong Cats -4.30
5 Richmond Tigers vs. Essendon Bombers Jul 12 Essendon Bombers -16.50
6 Fremantle Dockers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jul 12 Fremantle Dockers 0.40
7 Melbourne Demons vs. North Melbourne Jul 13 Melbourne Demons 22.90
8 St Kilda Saints vs. Sydney Swans Jul 13 St Kilda Saints 2.90
9 Port Adelaide Power vs. West Coast Eagles Jul 13 Port Adelaide Power 43.70

 

July 1, 2025

NRL Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.64 9.29 1.30
Roosters 5.79 7.44 -1.70
Panthers 5.13 8.50 -3.40
Dolphins 3.65 -1.96 5.60
Bulldogs 2.93 0.07 2.90
Sharks 2.43 5.10 -2.70
Sea Eagles 2.17 2.97 -0.80
Raiders 1.65 -3.61 5.30
Broncos 0.17 -1.82 2.00
Warriors -0.07 -1.68 1.60
Cowboys -1.77 4.11 -5.90
Knights -2.78 -0.05 -2.70
Dragons -4.34 -4.55 0.20
Eels -4.62 -3.02 -1.60
Rabbitohs -4.82 -4.35 -0.50
Titans -7.70 -5.50 -2.20
Wests Tigers -8.46 -10.97 2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 76 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Jun 26 8 – 6 5.80 TRUE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Jun 27 28 – 10 13.10 TRUE
3 Knights vs. Raiders Jun 27 18 – 22 -0.90 TRUE
4 Broncos vs. Warriors Jun 28 26 – 12 2.60 TRUE
5 Dragons vs. Eels Jun 28 34 – 20 2.10 TRUE
6 Dolphins vs. Rabbitohs Jun 28 50 – 28 10.30 TRUE
7 Storm vs. Sharks Jun 29 30 – 6 9.90 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Cowboys Jun 29 24 – 30 -2.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Jul 04 Bulldogs 5.80
2 Raiders vs. Dragons Jul 05 Raiders 9.00
3 Cowboys vs. Storm Jul 05 Storm -9.40
4 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Jul 06 Roosters 17.30
5 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Jul 06 Sea Eagles 10.00

 

AFL Predictions for Week 18

By

Team Ratings for Week 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Bulldogs 24.30 18.20 6.10
Geelong Cats 21.49 15.04 6.50
Adelaide Crows 21.08 2.69 18.40
Collingwood 18.03 5.39 12.60
Hawthorn Hawks 15.86 21.95 -6.10
Brisbane Lions 15.77 22.65 -6.90
Fremantle Dockers 5.47 5.99 -0.50
Gold Coast Suns 4.88 -6.41 11.30
GWS Giants 4.30 9.08 -4.80
Sydney Swans 1.96 12.60 -10.60
Port Adelaide Power -2.24 7.63 -9.90
Melbourne Demons -3.10 -0.21 -2.90
Carlton Blues -4.17 5.01 -9.20
St Kilda Saints -5.91 0.89 -6.80
Essendon Bombers -17.61 -10.15 -7.50
North Melbourne -24.29 -37.08 12.80
West Coast Eagles -32.45 -34.67 2.20
Richmond Tigers -35.75 -31.00 -4.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 134 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Port Adelaide Power vs. Carlton Blues Jun 26 110 – 60 7.10 TRUE
2 Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Jun 27 96 – 105 -12.10 TRUE
3 Gold Coast Suns vs. Melbourne Demons Jun 28 104 – 85 19.00 TRUE
4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. North Melbourne Jun 28 150 – 65 37.80 TRUE
5 Collingwood vs. West Coast Eagles Jun 28 88 – 59 66.70 TRUE
6 Richmond Tigers vs. Adelaide Crows Jun 29 54 – 122 -42.00 TRUE
7 Fremantle Dockers vs. St Kilda Saints Jun 29 81 – 69 24.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 18

Here are the predictions for Week 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Melbourne vs. Western Bulldogs Jul 03 Western Bulldogs -48.60
2 Carlton Blues vs. Collingwood Jul 04 Collingwood -22.20
3 West Coast Eagles vs. GWS Giants Jul 04 GWS Giants -25.80
4 Essendon Bombers vs. Gold Coast Suns Jul 05 Gold Coast Suns -11.50
5 Geelong Cats vs. Richmond Tigers Jul 05 Geelong Cats 68.20
6 Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Jul 05 Brisbane Lions 29.00
7 St Kilda Saints vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jul 05 Hawthorn Hawks -21.80
8 Sydney Swans vs. Fremantle Dockers Jul 06 Sydney Swans 7.50
9 Adelaide Crows vs. Melbourne Demons Jul 06 Adelaide Crows 35.20

 

June 24, 2025

Top 14 Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 13.56 8.76 4.80
Bordeaux Begles 4.71 3.96 0.80
Toulon 4.67 5.32 -0.60
Clermont 2.59 0.41 2.20
Stade Rochelais 2.19 4.85 -2.70
Racing 92 1.31 2.75 -1.40
Section Paloise 0.92 1.38 -0.50
Bayonne 0.90 -1.69 2.60
Castres Olympique 0.57 -0.09 0.70
Montpellier 0.48 -0.96 1.40
Lyon -1.07 -0.18 -0.90
Stade Francais -2.53 1.86 -4.40
USA Perpignan -3.91 -0.66 -3.30
Vannes -8.66 -10.00 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 186 matches played, 143 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stade Toulousain vs. Bayonne Jun 21 32 – 25 19.20 TRUE
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Toulon Jun 22 39 – 24 6.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux Begles Jun 29 Stade Toulousain 8.00

 

NRL Predictions for Round 17

By

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.98 9.29 0.70
Roosters 5.79 7.44 -1.70
Panthers 5.43 8.50 -3.10
Sharks 3.09 5.10 -2.00
Dolphins 3.08 -1.96 5.00
Bulldogs 2.62 0.07 2.50
Sea Eagles 1.88 2.97 -1.10
Raiders 1.41 -3.61 5.00
Warriors 0.49 -1.68 2.20
Broncos -0.39 -1.82 1.40
Cowboys -2.06 4.11 -6.20
Knights -2.54 -0.05 -2.50
Eels -4.05 -3.02 -1.00
Rabbitohs -4.25 -4.35 0.10
Dragons -4.92 -4.55 -0.40
Titans -7.41 -5.50 -1.90
Wests Tigers -8.17 -10.97 2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 68 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Jun 20 12 – 16 -7.10 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Panthers Jun 21 18 – 28 -0.50 TRUE
3 Dolphins vs. Knights Jun 21 20 – 26 10.10 FALSE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Jun 21 24 – 25 -12.30 TRUE
5 Broncos vs. Sharks Jun 22 34 – 28 -1.30 FALSE
6 Roosters vs. Cowboys Jun 22 42 – 8 8.70 TRUE
7 Eels vs. Titans Jun 22 36 – 20 5.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Jun 26 Panthers 5.80
2 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Jun 27 Sea Eagles 13.10
3 Knights vs. Raiders Jun 27 Raiders -0.90
4 Broncos vs. Warriors Jun 28 Broncos 2.60
5 Dragons vs. Eels Jun 28 Dragons 2.10
6 Dolphins vs. Rabbitohs Jun 28 Dolphins 10.30
7 Storm vs. Sharks Jun 29 Storm 9.90
8 Titans vs. Cowboys Jun 29 Cowboys -2.30

 

AFL Predictions for Week 17

By

Team Ratings for Week 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Bulldogs 24.66 18.20 6.50
Geelong Cats 21.49 15.04 6.50
Collingwood 20.66 5.39 15.30
Adelaide Crows 19.16 2.69 16.50
Brisbane Lions 15.77 22.65 -6.90
Hawthorn Hawks 12.68 21.95 -9.30
Fremantle Dockers 6.49 5.99 0.50
Gold Coast Suns 4.88 -6.41 11.30
GWS Giants 4.30 9.08 -4.80
Sydney Swans 1.59 12.60 -11.00
Carlton Blues -1.24 5.01 -6.30
Melbourne Demons -3.10 -0.21 -2.90
Port Adelaide Power -5.17 7.63 -12.80
St Kilda Saints -6.93 0.89 -7.80
Essendon Bombers -17.61 -10.15 -7.50
North Melbourne -21.12 -37.08 16.00
Richmond Tigers -33.83 -31.00 -2.80
West Coast Eagles -35.08 -34.67 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 127 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Essendon Bombers Jun 19 104 – 63 33.20 TRUE
2 Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Jun 20 51 – 92 17.30 FALSE
3 Carlton Blues vs. North Melbourne Jun 21 73 – 84 29.50 FALSE
4 Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Jun 21 52 – 71 8.20 FALSE
5 Collingwood vs. St Kilda Saints Jun 21 108 – 74 30.80 TRUE
6 GWS Giants vs. Gold Coast Suns Jun 22 106 – 99 11.50 TRUE
7 Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Jun 22 135 – 56 59.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 17

Here are the predictions for Week 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Port Adelaide Power vs. Carlton Blues Jun 26 Port Adelaide Power 7.10
2 Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Jun 27 Western Bulldogs -12.10
3 Gold Coast Suns vs. Melbourne Demons Jun 28 Gold Coast Suns 19.00
4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. North Melbourne Jun 28 Hawthorn Hawks 37.80
5 Collingwood vs. West Coast Eagles Jun 28 Collingwood 66.70
6 Richmond Tigers vs. Adelaide Crows Jun 29 Adelaide Crows -42.00
7 Fremantle Dockers vs. St Kilda Saints Jun 29 Fremantle Dockers 24.40

 

June 17, 2025

Top 14 Predictions for the Semi-finals

By

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 14.01 8.76 5.20
Toulon 4.97 5.32 -0.30
Bordeaux Begles 4.39 3.96 0.40
Clermont 2.59 0.41 2.20
Stade Rochelais 2.17 4.85 -2.70
Racing 92 1.31 2.75 -1.40
Section Paloise 0.95 1.38 -0.40
Castres Olympique 0.57 -0.09 0.70
Montpellier 0.50 -0.96 1.50
Bayonne 0.43 -1.69 2.10
Lyon -1.07 -0.18 -0.90
Stade Francais -2.53 1.86 -4.40
USA Perpignan -3.89 -0.66 -3.20
Vannes -8.68 -10.00 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 141 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Toulon vs. Castres Olympique Jun 15 52 – 23 11.90 TRUE
2 Bayonne vs. Clermont Jun 14 20 – 3 4.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stade Toulousain vs. Bayonne Jun 21 Stade Toulousain 19.20
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Toulon Jun 22 Bordeaux Begles 6.80

 

Super Rugby Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

By

Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 14.41 11.43 3.00
Blues 11.30 14.92 -3.60
Crusaders 10.67 8.99 1.70
Hurricanes 9.86 10.97 -1.10
Brumbies 6.44 6.19 0.20
Reds 2.36 1.35 1.00
Highlanders -2.95 -2.50 -0.40
Waratahs -6.93 -5.17 -1.80
Western Force -7.15 -6.41 -0.70
Fijian Drua -8.52 -7.98 -0.50
Moana Pasifika -8.96 -11.25 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 82 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Blues Jun 13 21 – 14 2.20 TRUE
2 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Jun 14 37 – 17 11.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Jun 21 Chiefs -0.20

 

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