Posts filed under Sports statistics (1768)

April 1, 2025

Top 14 Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.71 8.76 3.90
Toulon 6.83 5.32 1.50
Bordeaux Begles 5.89 3.96 1.90
Montpellier 1.35 -0.96 2.30
Clermont 0.68 0.41 0.30
Stade Rochelais 0.67 4.85 -4.20
Castres Olympique 0.66 -0.09 0.80
Lyon 0.46 -0.18 0.60
Bayonne 0.37 -1.69 2.10
Racing 92 0.12 2.75 -2.60
Section Paloise -0.58 1.38 -2.00
Stade Francais -1.50 1.86 -3.40
USA Perpignan -3.92 -0.66 -3.30
Vannes -8.03 -10.00 2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 140 matches played, 105 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Lyon Mar 30 28 – 14 5.30 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Toulon Mar 30 28 – 26 -0.10 FALSE
3 Clermont vs. Stade Rochelais Mar 30 33 – 19 5.20 TRUE
4 Montpellier vs. Stade Francais Mar 30 38 – 32 9.00 TRUE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise Mar 30 55 – 10 16.30 TRUE
6 Vannes vs. USA Perpignan Mar 30 20 – 20 2.70 FALSE
7 Racing 92 vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 31 36 – 31 0.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Vannes Apr 20 Castres Olympique 14.30
2 Lyon vs. Montpellier Apr 20 Lyon 7.00
3 Section Paloise vs. Bordeaux Begles Apr 20 Section Paloise 0.50
4 Stade Francais vs. Stade Toulousain Apr 20 Stade Toulousain -7.10
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Bayonne Apr 20 Stade Rochelais 6.10
6 Toulon vs. Clermont Apr 20 Toulon 13.20
7 USA Perpignan vs. Racing 92 Apr 20 USA Perpignan 2.30

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 8

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Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 12.15 14.92 -2.80
Chiefs 11.94 11.43 0.50
Hurricanes 9.26 10.97 -1.70
Crusaders 9.13 8.99 0.10
Brumbies 4.70 6.19 -1.50
Reds 1.67 1.35 0.30
Highlanders -1.80 -2.50 0.70
Western Force -5.40 -6.41 1.00
Waratahs -5.43 -5.17 -0.30
Fijian Drua -7.36 -7.98 0.60
Moana Pasifika -8.34 -11.25 2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 34 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Waratahs Mar 28 57 – 12 16.70 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Mar 28 34 – 27 11.10 TRUE
3 Crusaders vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 29 29 – 45 23.60 FALSE
4 Reds vs. Western Force Mar 29 28 – 24 11.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Reds Apr 04 Chiefs 14.30
2 Moana Pasifika vs. Waratahs Apr 05 Moana Pasifika 1.10
3 Fijian Drua vs. Crusaders Apr 05 Crusaders -12.50
4 Blues vs. Hurricanes Apr 05 Blues 6.40
5 Western Force vs. Highlanders Apr 05 Western Force 0.40

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 13.73 5.55 8.20
Sale Sharks 4.22 4.73 -0.50
Leicester Tigers 4.03 3.27 0.80
Gloucester 3.42 -9.04 12.50
Bristol 3.07 9.58 -6.50
Northampton Saints 2.23 7.50 -5.30
Harlequins 1.63 -2.73 4.40
Saracens 1.51 9.68 -8.20
Exeter Chiefs -4.48 1.23 -5.70
Newcastle Falcons -18.58 -19.02 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 65 matches played, 43 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Mar 29 27 – 24 9.90 TRUE
2 Bath vs. Harlequins Mar 30 47 – 28 18.50 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 30 17 – 15 25.30 TRUE
4 Gloucester vs. Bristol Mar 30 53 – 28 2.30 TRUE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Mar 31 22 – 29 13.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints Apr 19 Northampton Saints -14.30
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Apr 20 Bath -11.70
3 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Apr 20 Harlequins 3.90
4 Saracens vs. Gloucester Apr 20 Saracens 4.60
5 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 21 Bristol 5.50

 

NRL Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.51 9.29 0.20
Panthers 7.20 8.50 -1.30
Sharks 5.16 5.10 0.10
Roosters 4.38 7.44 -3.10
Sea Eagles 4.11 2.97 1.10
Bulldogs 2.04 0.07 2.00
Cowboys 1.63 4.11 -2.50
Broncos 0.23 -1.82 2.00
Knights -0.88 -0.05 -0.80
Warriors -1.24 -1.68 0.40
Raiders -3.19 -3.61 0.40
Rabbitohs -3.28 -4.35 1.10
Titans -3.63 -5.50 1.90
Dolphins -3.75 -1.96 -1.80
Dragons -4.34 -4.55 0.20
Eels -5.77 -3.02 -2.80
Wests Tigers -8.17 -10.97 2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Mar 27 28 – 18 -9.20 FALSE
2 Roosters vs. Titans Mar 28 12 – 30 13.50 FALSE
3 Dolphins vs. Broncos Mar 28 12 – 20 -3.40 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Storm Mar 29 14 – 8 -12.50 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Mar 29 30 – 20 7.40 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Mar 29 6 – 20 8.00 FALSE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Mar 30 26 – 12 12.70 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Mar 30 24 – 26 -3.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Sharks Apr 03 Sharks -5.30
2 Panthers vs. Cowboys Apr 04 Panthers 8.60
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Apr 04 Roosters -4.70
4 Eels vs. Dragons Apr 05 Eels 1.60
5 Titans vs. Dolphins Apr 05 Titans 3.10
6 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Apr 05 Broncos 11.40
7 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Apr 06 Storm -2.40
8 Bulldogs vs. Knights Apr 06 Bulldogs 5.90

 

AFL Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawthorn Hawks 24.22 21.95 2.30
Brisbane Lions 19.46 22.65 -3.20
Geelong Cats 17.06 15.04 2.00
Western Bulldogs 13.83 18.20 -4.40
Collingwood 12.95 5.39 7.60
GWS Giants 9.70 9.08 0.60
Adelaide Crows 8.68 2.69 6.00
Sydney Swans 8.31 12.60 -4.30
Port Adelaide Power 3.39 7.63 -4.20
Carlton Blues 2.73 5.01 -2.30
St Kilda Saints 2.41 0.89 1.50
Gold Coast Suns 2.15 -6.41 8.60
Fremantle Dockers 1.29 5.99 -4.70
Melbourne Demons -10.70 -0.21 -10.50
Essendon Bombers -11.08 -10.15 -0.90
North Melbourne -27.64 -37.08 9.40
Richmond Tigers -33.44 -31.00 -2.40
West Coast Eagles -35.71 -34.67 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 27 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Essendon Bombers vs. Port Adelaide Power Mar 27 72 – 60 -6.30 FALSE
2 Carlton Blues vs. Western Bulldogs Mar 28 75 – 83 -12.10 TRUE
3 Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats Mar 29 70 – 61 5.60 TRUE
4 Melbourne Demons vs. Gold Coast Suns Mar 29 62 – 120 6.40 FALSE
5 St Kilda Saints vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 29 135 – 53 28.80 TRUE
6 Hawthorn Hawks vs. GWS Giants Mar 29 76 – 64 28.10 TRUE
7 Adelaide Crows vs. North Melbourne Mar 30 114 – 78 49.50 TRUE
8 West Coast Eagles vs. Fremantle Dockers Mar 30 68 – 106 -36.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Collingwood vs. Carlton Blues Apr 03 Collingwood 10.20
2 Geelong Cats vs. Melbourne Demons Apr 04 Geelong Cats 38.80
3 Gold Coast Suns vs. Adelaide Crows Apr 05 Gold Coast Suns 4.50
4 Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Apr 05 Brisbane Lions -41.90
5 North Melbourne vs. Sydney Swans Apr 05 Sydney Swans -25.00
6 GWS Giants vs. West Coast Eagles Apr 06 GWS Giants 56.40
7 Port Adelaide Power vs. St Kilda Saints Apr 06 Port Adelaide Power 12.00
8 Fremantle Dockers vs. Western Bulldogs Apr 06 Western Bulldogs -1.50

 

March 25, 2025

AFL Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawthorn Hawks 25.49 21.95 3.50
Brisbane Lions 19.05 22.65 -3.60
Geelong Cats 17.47 15.04 2.40
Western Bulldogs 14.32 18.20 -3.90
Collingwood 12.95 5.39 7.60
Adelaide Crows 9.78 2.69 7.10
GWS Giants 8.43 9.08 -0.70
Sydney Swans 8.31 12.60 -4.30
Port Adelaide Power 4.81 7.63 -2.80
Carlton Blues 2.24 5.01 -2.80
Fremantle Dockers 1.13 5.99 -4.90
St Kilda Saints -1.11 0.89 -2.00
Gold Coast Suns -1.98 -6.41 4.40
Melbourne Demons -6.56 -0.21 -6.40
Essendon Bombers -12.50 -10.15 -2.40
North Melbourne -28.74 -37.08 8.30
Richmond Tigers -29.93 -31.00 1.10
West Coast Eagles -35.55 -34.67 -0.90

Performance So Far

So far there have been 19 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks Mar 20 60 – 80 -24.30 TRUE
2 Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood Mar 21 70 – 76 3.70 FALSE
3 Essendon Bombers vs. Adelaide Crows Mar 22 100 – 161 -3.80 TRUE
4 Port Adelaide Power vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 22 140 – 68 41.30 TRUE
5 St Kilda Saints vs. Geelong Cats Mar 22 98 – 91 -10.30 FALSE
6 Brisbane Lions vs. West Coast Eagles Mar 23 94 – 75 72.70 TRUE
7 North Melbourne vs. Melbourne Demons Mar 23 125 – 66 -33.40 FALSE
8 Fremantle Dockers vs. Sydney Swans Mar 23 65 – 68 6.00 FALSE

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Essendon Bombers vs. Port Adelaide Power Mar 27 Port Adelaide Power -6.30
2 Carlton Blues vs. Western Bulldogs Mar 28 Western Bulldogs -12.10
3 Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats Mar 29 Brisbane Lions 5.60
4 Melbourne Demons vs. Gold Coast Suns Mar 29 Melbourne Demons 6.40
5 St Kilda Saints vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 29 St Kilda Saints 28.80
6 Hawthorn Hawks vs. GWS Giants Mar 29 Hawthorn Hawks 28.10
7 Adelaide Crows vs. North Melbourne Mar 30 Adelaide Crows 49.50
8 West Coast Eagles vs. Fremantle Dockers Mar 30 Fremantle Dockers -36.70

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 14

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Team Ratings for Week 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.55 12.09 1.50
Bulls 7.64 8.83 -1.20
Glasgow 7.42 9.39 -2.00
Stormers 5.32 6.75 -1.40
Munster 5.08 9.28 -4.20
Lions 3.52 6.73 -3.20
Edinburgh 1.25 0.09 1.20
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Sharks 0.62 -2.94 3.60
Ospreys -0.46 -2.51 2.10
Ulster -1.13 2.52 -3.70
Connacht -1.17 -0.76 -0.40
Benetton -3.33 1.02 -4.40
Scarlets -4.51 -10.65 6.10
Cardiff Rugby -4.87 -2.55 -2.30
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Zebre -8.50 -16.17 7.70
Dragons -14.72 -15.41 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 104 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Lions Mar 22 20 – 17 -4.60 FALSE
2 Glasgow vs. Munster Mar 22 28 – 25 9.20 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Zebre Mar 22 35 – 34 16.90 TRUE
4 Benetton vs. Edinburgh Mar 23 21 – 18 0.30 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Leinster Mar 23 21 – 20 -0.80 FALSE
6 Dragons vs. Ulster Mar 23 30 – 34 -9.20 TRUE
7 Ospreys vs. Connacht Mar 23 43 – 40 7.10 TRUE
8 Scarlets vs. Stormers Mar 23 17 – 29 -2.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 14

Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Edinburgh vs. Dragons Mar 29 Edinburgh 21.50
2 Ulster vs. Stormers Mar 29 Stormers -0.90
3 Connacht vs. Munster Mar 30 Munster -3.70
4 Bulls vs. Zebre Mar 30 Bulls 21.60
5 Connacht vs. Munster Mar 30 Munster -3.70
6 Scarlets vs. Ospreys Mar 30 Ospreys -1.50
7 Sharks vs. Leinster Mar 30 Leinster -7.40
8 Benetton vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 30 Benetton 7.00
9 Glasgow vs. Lions Mar 30 Glasgow 9.40

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 11.82 8.76 3.10
Toulon 6.94 5.32 1.60
Bordeaux Begles 6.16 3.96 2.20
Montpellier 1.56 -0.96 2.50
Stade Rochelais 1.05 4.85 -3.80
Lyon 0.78 -0.18 1.00
Castres Olympique 0.53 -0.09 0.60
Clermont 0.34 0.41 -0.10
Section Paloise 0.31 1.38 -1.10
Bayonne 0.01 -1.69 1.70
Racing 92 -0.15 2.75 -2.90
Stade Francais -1.68 1.86 -3.50
USA Perpignan -4.08 -0.66 -3.40
Vannes -7.88 -10.00 2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 133 matches played, 100 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Clermont vs. Racing 92 Mar 23 21 – 23 6.20 FALSE
2 Lyon vs. Vannes Mar 23 36 – 21 15.60 TRUE
3 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier Mar 23 40 – 38 7.70 TRUE
4 Stade Francais vs. Bayonne Mar 23 31 – 27 4.60 TRUE
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Castres Olympique Mar 23 12 – 12 7.90 FALSE
6 Toulon vs. USA Perpignan Mar 23 40 – 19 16.20 TRUE
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 24 32 – 24 1.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Lyon Mar 30 Bayonne 5.30
2 Castres Olympique vs. Toulon Mar 30 Toulon -0.10
3 Clermont vs. Stade Rochelais Mar 30 Clermont 5.20
4 Montpellier vs. Stade Francais Mar 30 Montpellier 9.00
5 Racing 92 vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 30 Racing 92 0.30
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise Mar 30 Stade Toulousain 16.30
7 Vannes vs. USA Perpignan Mar 30 Vannes 2.70

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 7

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Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 12.15 14.92 -2.80
Chiefs 11.94 11.43 0.50
Crusaders 10.46 8.99 1.50
Hurricanes 8.24 10.97 -2.70
Brumbies 4.98 6.19 -1.20
Reds 2.02 1.35 0.70
Highlanders -2.08 -2.50 0.40
Waratahs -4.41 -5.17 0.80
Western Force -5.74 -6.41 0.70
Fijian Drua -7.36 -7.98 0.60
Moana Pasifika -9.67 -11.25 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Chiefs Mar 21 35 – 50 -18.60 TRUE
2 Highlanders vs. Reds Mar 22 23 – 29 0.90 FALSE
3 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 22 19 – 42 7.30 FALSE
4 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Mar 22 28 – 23 -6.90 FALSE
5 Western Force vs. Fijian Drua Mar 23 52 – 15 2.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Waratahs Mar 28 Hurricanes 16.70
2 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Mar 28 Brumbies 11.10
3 Crusaders vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 29 Crusaders 23.60
4 Reds vs. Western Force Mar 29 Reds 11.30

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 13

By

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 13.68 5.55 8.10
Leicester Tigers 6.03 3.27 2.80
Bristol 5.33 9.58 -4.30
Sale Sharks 4.90 4.73 0.20
Harlequins 1.68 -2.73 4.40
Northampton Saints 1.54 7.50 -6.00
Gloucester 1.15 -9.04 10.20
Saracens -0.50 9.68 -10.20
Exeter Chiefs -2.16 1.23 -3.40
Newcastle Falcons -20.91 -19.02 -1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Mar 22 15 – 39 -18.10 TRUE
2 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 23 52 – 38 14.00 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 23 0 – 33 10.80 FALSE
4 Saracens vs. Harlequins Mar 23 12 – 23 8.20 FALSE
5 Bath vs. Gloucester Mar 24 42 – 26 19.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Harlequins Mar 30 Bath 18.50
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 30 Exeter Chiefs 25.30
3 Gloucester vs. Bristol Mar 30 Gloucester 2.30
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Mar 30 Leicester Tigers 13.00
5 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Mar 30 Sale Sharks 9.90

 

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