Posts filed under Sports statistics (1768)

March 25, 2025

NRL Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.33 9.29 1.00
Panthers 8.05 8.50 -0.50
Sharks 6.11 5.10 1.00
Roosters 5.65 7.44 -1.80
Sea Eagles 4.00 2.97 1.00
Cowboys 1.42 4.11 -2.70
Bulldogs 1.09 0.07 1.00
Broncos -0.04 -1.82 1.80
Knights -0.88 -0.05 -0.80
Warriors -1.10 -1.68 0.60
Raiders -2.98 -3.61 0.60
Dolphins -3.48 -1.96 -1.50
Rabbitohs -4.13 -4.35 0.20
Titans -4.90 -5.50 0.60
Dragons -5.17 -4.55 -0.60
Eels -5.67 -3.02 -2.70
Wests Tigers -8.30 -10.97 2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Panthers Mar 20 30 – 24 5.10 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Roosters Mar 21 14 – 6 -4.40 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 21 26 – 16 0.60 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Mar 22 27 – 12 12.90 TRUE
5 Dolphins vs. Wests Tigers Mar 22 18 – 30 9.70 FALSE
6 Titans vs. Knights Mar 22 26 – 6 -3.00 FALSE
7 Eels vs. Bulldogs Mar 23 8 – 16 -3.20 TRUE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Mar 23 40 – 12 8.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Mar 27 Panthers -9.20
2 Roosters vs. Titans Mar 28 Roosters 13.50
3 Dolphins vs. Broncos Mar 28 Broncos -3.40
4 Dragons vs. Storm Mar 29 Storm -12.50
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Mar 29 Cowboys 7.40
6 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Mar 29 Sharks 8.00
7 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Mar 30 Sea Eagles 12.70
8 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Mar 30 Warriors -3.70

 

March 19, 2025

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 13.23 14.92 -1.70
Chiefs 12.20 11.43 0.80
Crusaders 9.39 8.99 0.40
Hurricanes 8.24 10.97 -2.70
Brumbies 5.49 6.19 -0.70
Reds 1.54 1.35 0.20
Highlanders -1.60 -2.50 0.90
Waratahs -4.92 -5.17 0.30
Fijian Drua -6.18 -7.98 1.80
Western Force -6.92 -6.41 -0.50
Moana Pasifika -9.93 -11.25 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 25 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 14 18 – 20 -7.00 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Fijian Drua Mar 14 38 – 21 14.90 TRUE
3 Crusaders vs. Western Force Mar 15 55 – 33 20.00 TRUE
4 Chiefs vs. Blues Mar 15 32 – 31 2.70 TRUE
5 Reds vs. Waratahs Mar 15 35 – 15 9.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Chiefs Mar 21 Chiefs -18.60
2 Highlanders vs. Reds Mar 22 Highlanders 0.90
3 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 22 Blues 7.30
4 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Mar 22 Brumbies -6.90
5 Western Force vs. Fijian Drua Mar 23 Western Force 2.80

 

NRL Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.26 9.29 1.00
Panthers 8.12 8.50 -0.40
Roosters 6.25 7.44 -1.20
Sharks 5.94 5.10 0.80
Sea Eagles 3.13 2.97 0.20
Cowboys 1.91 4.11 -2.20
Bulldogs 0.81 0.07 0.70
Knights 0.10 -0.05 0.10
Broncos -0.53 -1.82 1.30
Warriors -1.70 -1.68 -0.00
Raiders -2.11 -3.61 1.50
Dolphins -2.55 -1.96 -0.60
Rabbitohs -3.97 -4.35 0.40
Dragons -5.17 -4.55 -0.60
Eels -5.39 -3.02 -2.40
Titans -5.88 -5.50 -0.40
Wests Tigers -9.24 -10.97 1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Dolphins Mar 13 26 – 12 4.70 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Mar 14 36 – 16 -3.30 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Roosters Mar 14 32 – 38 6.00 FALSE
4 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Mar 15 24 – 25 2.30 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Sharks Mar 15 12 – 36 1.10 FALSE
6 Raiders vs. Broncos Mar 15 32 – 22 0.40 TRUE
7 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Mar 16 6 – 32 9.60 FALSE
8 Bulldogs vs. Titans Mar 16 40 – 24 8.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Panthers Mar 20 Storm 5.10
2 Warriors vs. Roosters Mar 21 Roosters -4.40
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 21 Broncos 0.60
4 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Mar 22 Sharks 12.90
5 Dolphins vs. Wests Tigers Mar 22 Dolphins 9.70
6 Titans vs. Knights Mar 22 Knights -3.00
7 Eels vs. Bulldogs Mar 23 Bulldogs -3.20
8 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Mar 23 Sea Eagles 8.20

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawthorn Hawks 26.00 21.95 4.00
Brisbane Lions 22.59 22.65 -0.10
Geelong Cats 18.82 15.04 3.80
Western Bulldogs 15.48 18.20 -2.70
Collingwood 11.79 5.39 6.40
GWS Giants 8.43 9.08 -0.70
Sydney Swans 7.23 12.60 -5.40
Adelaide Crows 6.04 2.69 3.30
Port Adelaide Power 2.61 7.63 -5.00
Fremantle Dockers 2.21 5.99 -3.80
Carlton Blues 1.73 5.01 -3.30
Melbourne Demons -0.94 -0.21 -0.70
Gold Coast Suns -1.98 -6.41 4.40
St Kilda Saints -2.46 0.89 -3.30
Essendon Bombers -8.76 -10.15 1.40
Richmond Tigers -27.72 -31.00 3.30
North Melbourne -34.37 -37.08 2.70
West Coast Eagles -39.10 -34.67 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 11 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Mar 13 82 – 69 -36.00 FALSE
2 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Mar 14 111 – 85 37.50 TRUE
3 Geelong Cats vs. Fremantle Dockers Mar 15 147 – 69 20.00 TRUE
4 Sydney Swans vs. Brisbane Lions Mar 15 82 – 86 -4.50 TRUE
5 Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide Power Mar 15 136 – 45 10.10 TRUE
6 Western Bulldogs vs. North Melbourne Mar 15 113 – 97 55.30 TRUE
7 Adelaide Crows vs. St Kilda Saints Mar 16 135 – 72 12.80 TRUE
8 Melbourne Demons vs. GWS Giants Mar 16 74 – 77 3.10 FALSE
9 West Coast Eagles vs. Gold Coast Suns Mar 16 49 – 136 -17.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks Mar 20 Hawthorn Hawks -24.30
2 Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood Mar 21 Western Bulldogs 3.70
3 Essendon Bombers vs. Adelaide Crows Mar 22 Adelaide Crows -3.80
4 Port Adelaide Power vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 22 Port Adelaide Power 41.30
5 St Kilda Saints vs. Geelong Cats Mar 22 Geelong Cats -10.30
6 Brisbane Lions vs. West Coast Eagles Mar 23 Brisbane Lions 72.70
7 North Melbourne vs. Melbourne Demons Mar 23 Melbourne Demons -33.40
8 Fremantle Dockers vs. Sydney Swans Mar 23 Fremantle Dockers 6.00

 

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March 11, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 13

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Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.75 12.09 1.70
Glasgow 8.10 9.39 -1.30
Bulls 7.44 8.83 -1.40
Munster 4.39 9.28 -4.90
Lions 4.35 6.73 -2.40
Stormers 4.23 6.75 -2.50
Sharks 1.78 -2.94 4.70
Edinburgh 1.54 0.09 1.50
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Ospreys -0.01 -2.51 2.50
Ulster -0.55 2.52 -3.10
Connacht -1.62 -0.76 -0.90
Scarlets -3.42 -10.65 7.20
Benetton -3.62 1.02 -4.60
Cardiff Rugby -5.70 -2.55 -3.10
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Zebre -9.65 -16.17 6.50
Dragons -15.29 -15.41 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 96 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Lions Mar 09 25 – 22 -0.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Lions Mar 22 Lions -4.60
2 Glasgow vs. Munster Mar 22 Glasgow 9.20
3 Sharks vs. Zebre Mar 22 Sharks 16.90
4 Benetton vs. Edinburgh Mar 23 Benetton 0.30
5 Bulls vs. Leinster Mar 23 Leinster -0.80
6 Dragons vs. Ulster Mar 23 Ulster -9.20
7 Ospreys vs. Connacht Mar 23 Ospreys 7.10
8 Scarlets vs. Stormers Mar 23 Stormers -2.20

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 13.11 14.92 -1.80
Chiefs 12.32 11.43 0.90
Crusaders 9.25 8.99 0.30
Hurricanes 8.59 10.97 -2.40
Brumbies 5.34 6.19 -0.90
Reds 1.06 1.35 -0.30
Highlanders -1.95 -2.50 0.60
Waratahs -4.44 -5.17 0.70
Fijian Drua -6.03 -7.98 1.90
Western Force -6.78 -6.41 -0.40
Moana Pasifika -9.93 -11.25 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 20 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Brumbies Mar 07 20 – 21 12.90 FALSE
2 Fijian Drua vs. Chiefs Mar 08 28 – 24 -15.90 FALSE
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Hurricanes Mar 08 40 – 31 -16.90 FALSE
4 Waratahs vs. Western Force Mar 08 34 – 10 4.30 TRUE
5 Crusaders vs. Reds Mar 09 43 – 19 11.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 14 Hurricanes -7.00
2 Brumbies vs. Fijian Drua Mar 14 Brumbies 14.90
3 Crusaders vs. Western Force Mar 15 Crusaders 20.00
4 Chiefs vs. Blues Mar 15 Chiefs 2.70
5 Reds vs. Waratahs Mar 15 Reds 9.00

 

NRL Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

Unfortunately my predictions for the first round were incorrect because I had the Dolphins playing at home, when in fact the Rabbitohs were at home. The results below use the correct home ground and show the Rabbitohs as predicted winners rather than the Dolphins.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.26 9.29 1.00
Panthers 8.71 8.50 0.20
Roosters 5.66 7.44 -1.80
Sharks 4.89 5.10 -0.20
Sea Eagles 4.13 2.97 1.20
Cowboys 2.96 4.11 -1.20
Bulldogs 0.43 0.07 0.40
Broncos -0.04 -1.82 1.80
Knights -0.38 -0.05 -0.30
Dolphins -2.07 -1.96 -0.10
Raiders -2.59 -3.61 1.00
Warriors -2.69 -1.68 -1.00
Eels -3.99 -3.02 -1.00
Rabbitohs -4.23 -4.35 0.10
Dragons -4.90 -4.55 -0.30
Titans -5.50 -5.50 -0.00
Wests Tigers -10.64 -10.97 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Warriors Mar 02 30 – 8 -1.90 FALSE
2 Panthers vs. Sharks Mar 02 28 – 22 3.40 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Broncos Mar 06 14 – 50 12.30 FALSE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Mar 07 8 – 10 -7.90 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Dolphins Mar 07 16 – 14 0.60 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Mar 08 20 – 28 -1.60 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Mar 08 42 – 12 1.90 TRUE
8 Storm vs. Eels Mar 09 56 – 18 15.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Knights vs. Dolphins Mar 13 Knights 4.70
2 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Mar 14 Sea Eagles -3.30
3 Panthers vs. Roosters Mar 14 Panthers 6.00
4 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Mar 15 Dragons 2.30
5 Cowboys vs. Sharks Mar 15 Cowboys 1.10
6 Raiders vs. Broncos Mar 15 Raiders 0.40
7 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Mar 16 Eels 9.60
8 Bulldogs vs. Titans Mar 16 Bulldogs 8.90

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawthorn Hawks 23.59 21.95 1.60
Brisbane Lions 22.65 22.65 -0.00
Western Bulldogs 18.20 18.20 0.00
Geelong Cats 15.04 15.04 0.00
GWS Giants 11.68 9.08 2.60
Sydney Swans 10.97 12.60 -1.60
Port Adelaide Power 7.63 7.63 -0.00
Fremantle Dockers 5.99 5.99 0.00
Carlton Blues 5.01 5.01 -0.00
Collingwood 2.78 5.39 -2.60
Adelaide Crows 2.69 2.69 -0.00
St Kilda Saints 0.89 0.89 0.00
Melbourne Demons -0.21 -0.21 -0.00
Gold Coast Suns -6.41 -6.41 0.00
Essendon Bombers -10.15 -10.15 -0.00
Richmond Tigers -31.00 -31.00 0.00
West Coast Eagles -34.67 -34.67 -0.00
North Melbourne -37.08 -37.08 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 2 matches played, 1 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sydney Swans vs. Hawthorn Hawks Mar 07 76 – 96 1.60 FALSE
2 GWS Giants vs. Collingwood Mar 09 104 – 52 14.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Mar 13 Carlton Blues -36.00
2 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Mar 14 Hawthorn Hawks 33.70
3 Geelong Cats vs. Fremantle Dockers Mar 15 Geelong Cats 20.00
4 Sydney Swans vs. Brisbane Lions Mar 15 Brisbane Lions -0.70
5 Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide Power Mar 15 Collingwood 6.20
6 Western Bulldogs vs. North Melbourne Mar 15 Western Bulldogs 55.30
7 Adelaide Crows vs. St Kilda Saints Mar 16 Adelaide Crows 12.80
8 Melbourne Demons vs. GWS Giants Mar 16 GWS Giants -0.90
9 West Coast Eagles vs. Gold Coast Suns Mar 16 Gold Coast Suns -17.30

 

March 4, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Delayed Games

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Team Ratings for Delayed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.75 12.09 1.70
Glasgow 8.10 9.39 -1.30
Bulls 7.44 8.83 -1.40
Lions 4.79 6.73 -1.90
Munster 4.39 9.28 -4.90
Stormers 4.23 6.75 -2.50
Edinburgh 1.54 0.09 1.50
Sharks 1.35 -2.94 4.30
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Ospreys -0.01 -2.51 2.50
Ulster -0.55 2.52 -3.10
Connacht -1.62 -0.76 -0.90
Scarlets -3.42 -10.65 7.20
Benetton -3.62 1.02 -4.60
Cardiff Rugby -5.70 -2.55 -3.10
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Zebre -9.65 -16.17 6.50
Dragons -15.29 -15.41 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 95 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Munster vs. Edinburgh Mar 01 28 – 34 10.80 FALSE
2 Zebre vs. Dragons Mar 01 31 – 21 11.50 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Sharks Mar 02 38 – 14 3.00 TRUE
4 Bulls vs. Stormers Mar 02 16 – 19 7.30 FALSE
5 Leinster vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 02 42 – 24 26.90 TRUE
6 Ulster vs. Scarlets Mar 02 30 – 28 10.20 TRUE
7 Connacht vs. Benetton Mar 02 38 – 30 7.40 TRUE
8 Glasgow vs. Ospreys Mar 02 31 – 32 16.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Delayed Games

Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Lions Mar 09 Lions -0.90

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.23 8.76 3.50
Toulon 6.66 5.32 1.30
Bordeaux Begles 5.80 3.96 1.80
Stade Rochelais 1.37 4.85 -3.50
Montpellier 1.24 -0.96 2.20
Lyon 0.84 -0.18 1.00
Clermont 0.68 0.41 0.30
Section Paloise 0.63 1.38 -0.80
Castres Olympique 0.20 -0.09 0.30
Bayonne -0.04 -1.69 1.60
Racing 92 -0.50 2.75 -3.30
Stade Francais -1.66 1.86 -3.50
USA Perpignan -3.80 -0.66 -3.10
Vannes -7.92 -10.00 2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 95 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lyon vs. Toulon Mar 02 27 – 20 1.10 TRUE
2 Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique Mar 02 21 – 17 7.90 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. Section Paloise Mar 02 29 – 47 6.60 FALSE
4 Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais Mar 02 22 – 17 3.80 TRUE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Vannes Mar 02 63 – 21 24.20 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 02 17 – 29 -2.20 TRUE
7 Bayonne vs. Clermont Mar 03 31 – 18 6.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Clermont vs. Racing 92 Mar 23 Clermont 6.20
2 Lyon vs. Vannes Mar 23 Lyon 15.60
3 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier Mar 23 Section Paloise 7.70
4 Stade Francais vs. Bayonne Mar 23 Stade Francais 4.60
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Castres Olympique Mar 23 Stade Rochelais 7.90
6 Toulon vs. USA Perpignan Mar 23 Toulon 16.20
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 24 Bordeaux Begles 1.10

 

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