NRL Predictions for Round 7
Team Ratings for Round 7
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 11.06 | 9.29 | 1.80 |
| Panthers | 5.57 | 8.50 | -2.90 |
| Sharks | 4.80 | 5.10 | -0.30 |
| Roosters | 4.35 | 7.44 | -3.10 |
| Sea Eagles | 3.06 | 2.97 | 0.10 |
| Bulldogs | 2.70 | 0.07 | 2.60 |
| Cowboys | 2.57 | 4.11 | -1.50 |
| Broncos | 0.25 | -1.82 | 2.10 |
| Raiders | -1.34 | -3.61 | 2.30 |
| Dolphins | -1.54 | -1.96 | 0.40 |
| Warriors | -1.85 | -1.68 | -0.20 |
| Knights | -2.64 | -0.05 | -2.60 |
| Rabbitohs | -3.09 | -4.35 | 1.30 |
| Dragons | -3.47 | -4.55 | 1.10 |
| Titans | -5.64 | -5.50 | -0.10 |
| Eels | -7.19 | -3.02 | -4.20 |
| Wests Tigers | -7.61 | -10.97 | 3.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 48 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dolphins vs. Panthers | Apr 10 | 30 – 12 | -6.20 | FALSE |
| 2 | Dragons vs. Titans | Apr 11 | 38 – 16 | 3.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Roosters | Apr 11 | 16 – 26 | -0.10 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Sea Eagles | Apr 12 | 24 – 18 | 4.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys | Apr 12 | 16 – 24 | -2.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Eels vs. Raiders | Apr 12 | 12 – 50 | -3.10 | TRUE |
| 7 | Storm vs. Warriors | Apr 13 | 42 – 14 | 15.20 | TRUE |
| 8 | Knights vs. Wests Tigers | Apr 13 | 4 – 20 | 10.10 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 7
Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sea Eagles vs. Dragons | Apr 17 | Sea Eagles | 9.50 |
| 2 | Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs | Apr 18 | Bulldogs | 5.80 |
| 3 | Dolphins vs. Storm | Apr 18 | Storm | -9.60 |
| 4 | Warriors vs. Broncos | Apr 19 | Warriors | 1.40 |
| 5 | Roosters vs. Panthers | Apr 19 | Roosters | 1.80 |
| 6 | Titans vs. Raiders | Apr 20 | Raiders | -1.30 |
| 7 | Knights vs. Sharks | Apr 20 | Sharks | -4.40 |
| 8 | Wests Tigers vs. Eels | Apr 21 | Eels | -0.40 |