Posts filed under Sports statistics (1803)

March 25, 2025

AFL Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawthorn Hawks 25.49 21.95 3.50
Brisbane Lions 19.05 22.65 -3.60
Geelong Cats 17.47 15.04 2.40
Western Bulldogs 14.32 18.20 -3.90
Collingwood 12.95 5.39 7.60
Adelaide Crows 9.78 2.69 7.10
GWS Giants 8.43 9.08 -0.70
Sydney Swans 8.31 12.60 -4.30
Port Adelaide Power 4.81 7.63 -2.80
Carlton Blues 2.24 5.01 -2.80
Fremantle Dockers 1.13 5.99 -4.90
St Kilda Saints -1.11 0.89 -2.00
Gold Coast Suns -1.98 -6.41 4.40
Melbourne Demons -6.56 -0.21 -6.40
Essendon Bombers -12.50 -10.15 -2.40
North Melbourne -28.74 -37.08 8.30
Richmond Tigers -29.93 -31.00 1.10
West Coast Eagles -35.55 -34.67 -0.90

Performance So Far

So far there have been 19 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks Mar 20 60 – 80 -24.30 TRUE
2 Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood Mar 21 70 – 76 3.70 FALSE
3 Essendon Bombers vs. Adelaide Crows Mar 22 100 – 161 -3.80 TRUE
4 Port Adelaide Power vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 22 140 – 68 41.30 TRUE
5 St Kilda Saints vs. Geelong Cats Mar 22 98 – 91 -10.30 FALSE
6 Brisbane Lions vs. West Coast Eagles Mar 23 94 – 75 72.70 TRUE
7 North Melbourne vs. Melbourne Demons Mar 23 125 – 66 -33.40 FALSE
8 Fremantle Dockers vs. Sydney Swans Mar 23 65 – 68 6.00 FALSE

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Essendon Bombers vs. Port Adelaide Power Mar 27 Port Adelaide Power -6.30
2 Carlton Blues vs. Western Bulldogs Mar 28 Western Bulldogs -12.10
3 Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats Mar 29 Brisbane Lions 5.60
4 Melbourne Demons vs. Gold Coast Suns Mar 29 Melbourne Demons 6.40
5 St Kilda Saints vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 29 St Kilda Saints 28.80
6 Hawthorn Hawks vs. GWS Giants Mar 29 Hawthorn Hawks 28.10
7 Adelaide Crows vs. North Melbourne Mar 30 Adelaide Crows 49.50
8 West Coast Eagles vs. Fremantle Dockers Mar 30 Fremantle Dockers -36.70

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 14

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Team Ratings for Week 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.55 12.09 1.50
Bulls 7.64 8.83 -1.20
Glasgow 7.42 9.39 -2.00
Stormers 5.32 6.75 -1.40
Munster 5.08 9.28 -4.20
Lions 3.52 6.73 -3.20
Edinburgh 1.25 0.09 1.20
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Sharks 0.62 -2.94 3.60
Ospreys -0.46 -2.51 2.10
Ulster -1.13 2.52 -3.70
Connacht -1.17 -0.76 -0.40
Benetton -3.33 1.02 -4.40
Scarlets -4.51 -10.65 6.10
Cardiff Rugby -4.87 -2.55 -2.30
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Zebre -8.50 -16.17 7.70
Dragons -14.72 -15.41 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 104 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Lions Mar 22 20 – 17 -4.60 FALSE
2 Glasgow vs. Munster Mar 22 28 – 25 9.20 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Zebre Mar 22 35 – 34 16.90 TRUE
4 Benetton vs. Edinburgh Mar 23 21 – 18 0.30 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Leinster Mar 23 21 – 20 -0.80 FALSE
6 Dragons vs. Ulster Mar 23 30 – 34 -9.20 TRUE
7 Ospreys vs. Connacht Mar 23 43 – 40 7.10 TRUE
8 Scarlets vs. Stormers Mar 23 17 – 29 -2.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 14

Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Edinburgh vs. Dragons Mar 29 Edinburgh 21.50
2 Ulster vs. Stormers Mar 29 Stormers -0.90
3 Connacht vs. Munster Mar 30 Munster -3.70
4 Bulls vs. Zebre Mar 30 Bulls 21.60
5 Connacht vs. Munster Mar 30 Munster -3.70
6 Scarlets vs. Ospreys Mar 30 Ospreys -1.50
7 Sharks vs. Leinster Mar 30 Leinster -7.40
8 Benetton vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 30 Benetton 7.00
9 Glasgow vs. Lions Mar 30 Glasgow 9.40

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 11.82 8.76 3.10
Toulon 6.94 5.32 1.60
Bordeaux Begles 6.16 3.96 2.20
Montpellier 1.56 -0.96 2.50
Stade Rochelais 1.05 4.85 -3.80
Lyon 0.78 -0.18 1.00
Castres Olympique 0.53 -0.09 0.60
Clermont 0.34 0.41 -0.10
Section Paloise 0.31 1.38 -1.10
Bayonne 0.01 -1.69 1.70
Racing 92 -0.15 2.75 -2.90
Stade Francais -1.68 1.86 -3.50
USA Perpignan -4.08 -0.66 -3.40
Vannes -7.88 -10.00 2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 133 matches played, 100 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Clermont vs. Racing 92 Mar 23 21 – 23 6.20 FALSE
2 Lyon vs. Vannes Mar 23 36 – 21 15.60 TRUE
3 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier Mar 23 40 – 38 7.70 TRUE
4 Stade Francais vs. Bayonne Mar 23 31 – 27 4.60 TRUE
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Castres Olympique Mar 23 12 – 12 7.90 FALSE
6 Toulon vs. USA Perpignan Mar 23 40 – 19 16.20 TRUE
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 24 32 – 24 1.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Lyon Mar 30 Bayonne 5.30
2 Castres Olympique vs. Toulon Mar 30 Toulon -0.10
3 Clermont vs. Stade Rochelais Mar 30 Clermont 5.20
4 Montpellier vs. Stade Francais Mar 30 Montpellier 9.00
5 Racing 92 vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 30 Racing 92 0.30
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise Mar 30 Stade Toulousain 16.30
7 Vannes vs. USA Perpignan Mar 30 Vannes 2.70

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 7

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Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 12.15 14.92 -2.80
Chiefs 11.94 11.43 0.50
Crusaders 10.46 8.99 1.50
Hurricanes 8.24 10.97 -2.70
Brumbies 4.98 6.19 -1.20
Reds 2.02 1.35 0.70
Highlanders -2.08 -2.50 0.40
Waratahs -4.41 -5.17 0.80
Western Force -5.74 -6.41 0.70
Fijian Drua -7.36 -7.98 0.60
Moana Pasifika -9.67 -11.25 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Chiefs Mar 21 35 – 50 -18.60 TRUE
2 Highlanders vs. Reds Mar 22 23 – 29 0.90 FALSE
3 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 22 19 – 42 7.30 FALSE
4 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Mar 22 28 – 23 -6.90 FALSE
5 Western Force vs. Fijian Drua Mar 23 52 – 15 2.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Waratahs Mar 28 Hurricanes 16.70
2 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Mar 28 Brumbies 11.10
3 Crusaders vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 29 Crusaders 23.60
4 Reds vs. Western Force Mar 29 Reds 11.30

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 13.68 5.55 8.10
Leicester Tigers 6.03 3.27 2.80
Bristol 5.33 9.58 -4.30
Sale Sharks 4.90 4.73 0.20
Harlequins 1.68 -2.73 4.40
Northampton Saints 1.54 7.50 -6.00
Gloucester 1.15 -9.04 10.20
Saracens -0.50 9.68 -10.20
Exeter Chiefs -2.16 1.23 -3.40
Newcastle Falcons -20.91 -19.02 -1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Mar 22 15 – 39 -18.10 TRUE
2 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 23 52 – 38 14.00 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 23 0 – 33 10.80 FALSE
4 Saracens vs. Harlequins Mar 23 12 – 23 8.20 FALSE
5 Bath vs. Gloucester Mar 24 42 – 26 19.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Harlequins Mar 30 Bath 18.50
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 30 Exeter Chiefs 25.30
3 Gloucester vs. Bristol Mar 30 Gloucester 2.30
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Mar 30 Leicester Tigers 13.00
5 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Mar 30 Sale Sharks 9.90

 

NRL Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.33 9.29 1.00
Panthers 8.05 8.50 -0.50
Sharks 6.11 5.10 1.00
Roosters 5.65 7.44 -1.80
Sea Eagles 4.00 2.97 1.00
Cowboys 1.42 4.11 -2.70
Bulldogs 1.09 0.07 1.00
Broncos -0.04 -1.82 1.80
Knights -0.88 -0.05 -0.80
Warriors -1.10 -1.68 0.60
Raiders -2.98 -3.61 0.60
Dolphins -3.48 -1.96 -1.50
Rabbitohs -4.13 -4.35 0.20
Titans -4.90 -5.50 0.60
Dragons -5.17 -4.55 -0.60
Eels -5.67 -3.02 -2.70
Wests Tigers -8.30 -10.97 2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Panthers Mar 20 30 – 24 5.10 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Roosters Mar 21 14 – 6 -4.40 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 21 26 – 16 0.60 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Mar 22 27 – 12 12.90 TRUE
5 Dolphins vs. Wests Tigers Mar 22 18 – 30 9.70 FALSE
6 Titans vs. Knights Mar 22 26 – 6 -3.00 FALSE
7 Eels vs. Bulldogs Mar 23 8 – 16 -3.20 TRUE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Mar 23 40 – 12 8.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Mar 27 Panthers -9.20
2 Roosters vs. Titans Mar 28 Roosters 13.50
3 Dolphins vs. Broncos Mar 28 Broncos -3.40
4 Dragons vs. Storm Mar 29 Storm -12.50
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Mar 29 Cowboys 7.40
6 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Mar 29 Sharks 8.00
7 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Mar 30 Sea Eagles 12.70
8 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Mar 30 Warriors -3.70

 

March 19, 2025

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 13.23 14.92 -1.70
Chiefs 12.20 11.43 0.80
Crusaders 9.39 8.99 0.40
Hurricanes 8.24 10.97 -2.70
Brumbies 5.49 6.19 -0.70
Reds 1.54 1.35 0.20
Highlanders -1.60 -2.50 0.90
Waratahs -4.92 -5.17 0.30
Fijian Drua -6.18 -7.98 1.80
Western Force -6.92 -6.41 -0.50
Moana Pasifika -9.93 -11.25 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 25 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 14 18 – 20 -7.00 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Fijian Drua Mar 14 38 – 21 14.90 TRUE
3 Crusaders vs. Western Force Mar 15 55 – 33 20.00 TRUE
4 Chiefs vs. Blues Mar 15 32 – 31 2.70 TRUE
5 Reds vs. Waratahs Mar 15 35 – 15 9.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Chiefs Mar 21 Chiefs -18.60
2 Highlanders vs. Reds Mar 22 Highlanders 0.90
3 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 22 Blues 7.30
4 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Mar 22 Brumbies -6.90
5 Western Force vs. Fijian Drua Mar 23 Western Force 2.80

 

NRL Predictions for Round 3

By

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.26 9.29 1.00
Panthers 8.12 8.50 -0.40
Roosters 6.25 7.44 -1.20
Sharks 5.94 5.10 0.80
Sea Eagles 3.13 2.97 0.20
Cowboys 1.91 4.11 -2.20
Bulldogs 0.81 0.07 0.70
Knights 0.10 -0.05 0.10
Broncos -0.53 -1.82 1.30
Warriors -1.70 -1.68 -0.00
Raiders -2.11 -3.61 1.50
Dolphins -2.55 -1.96 -0.60
Rabbitohs -3.97 -4.35 0.40
Dragons -5.17 -4.55 -0.60
Eels -5.39 -3.02 -2.40
Titans -5.88 -5.50 -0.40
Wests Tigers -9.24 -10.97 1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Dolphins Mar 13 26 – 12 4.70 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Mar 14 36 – 16 -3.30 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Roosters Mar 14 32 – 38 6.00 FALSE
4 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Mar 15 24 – 25 2.30 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Sharks Mar 15 12 – 36 1.10 FALSE
6 Raiders vs. Broncos Mar 15 32 – 22 0.40 TRUE
7 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Mar 16 6 – 32 9.60 FALSE
8 Bulldogs vs. Titans Mar 16 40 – 24 8.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Panthers Mar 20 Storm 5.10
2 Warriors vs. Roosters Mar 21 Roosters -4.40
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 21 Broncos 0.60
4 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Mar 22 Sharks 12.90
5 Dolphins vs. Wests Tigers Mar 22 Dolphins 9.70
6 Titans vs. Knights Mar 22 Knights -3.00
7 Eels vs. Bulldogs Mar 23 Bulldogs -3.20
8 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Mar 23 Sea Eagles 8.20

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawthorn Hawks 26.00 21.95 4.00
Brisbane Lions 22.59 22.65 -0.10
Geelong Cats 18.82 15.04 3.80
Western Bulldogs 15.48 18.20 -2.70
Collingwood 11.79 5.39 6.40
GWS Giants 8.43 9.08 -0.70
Sydney Swans 7.23 12.60 -5.40
Adelaide Crows 6.04 2.69 3.30
Port Adelaide Power 2.61 7.63 -5.00
Fremantle Dockers 2.21 5.99 -3.80
Carlton Blues 1.73 5.01 -3.30
Melbourne Demons -0.94 -0.21 -0.70
Gold Coast Suns -1.98 -6.41 4.40
St Kilda Saints -2.46 0.89 -3.30
Essendon Bombers -8.76 -10.15 1.40
Richmond Tigers -27.72 -31.00 3.30
North Melbourne -34.37 -37.08 2.70
West Coast Eagles -39.10 -34.67 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 11 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Mar 13 82 – 69 -36.00 FALSE
2 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Mar 14 111 – 85 37.50 TRUE
3 Geelong Cats vs. Fremantle Dockers Mar 15 147 – 69 20.00 TRUE
4 Sydney Swans vs. Brisbane Lions Mar 15 82 – 86 -4.50 TRUE
5 Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide Power Mar 15 136 – 45 10.10 TRUE
6 Western Bulldogs vs. North Melbourne Mar 15 113 – 97 55.30 TRUE
7 Adelaide Crows vs. St Kilda Saints Mar 16 135 – 72 12.80 TRUE
8 Melbourne Demons vs. GWS Giants Mar 16 74 – 77 3.10 FALSE
9 West Coast Eagles vs. Gold Coast Suns Mar 16 49 – 136 -17.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks Mar 20 Hawthorn Hawks -24.30
2 Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood Mar 21 Western Bulldogs 3.70
3 Essendon Bombers vs. Adelaide Crows Mar 22 Adelaide Crows -3.80
4 Port Adelaide Power vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 22 Port Adelaide Power 41.30
5 St Kilda Saints vs. Geelong Cats Mar 22 Geelong Cats -10.30
6 Brisbane Lions vs. West Coast Eagles Mar 23 Brisbane Lions 72.70
7 North Melbourne vs. Melbourne Demons Mar 23 Melbourne Demons -33.40
8 Fremantle Dockers vs. Sydney Swans Mar 23 Fremantle Dockers 6.00

 

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March 11, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 13

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Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.75 12.09 1.70
Glasgow 8.10 9.39 -1.30
Bulls 7.44 8.83 -1.40
Munster 4.39 9.28 -4.90
Lions 4.35 6.73 -2.40
Stormers 4.23 6.75 -2.50
Sharks 1.78 -2.94 4.70
Edinburgh 1.54 0.09 1.50
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Ospreys -0.01 -2.51 2.50
Ulster -0.55 2.52 -3.10
Connacht -1.62 -0.76 -0.90
Scarlets -3.42 -10.65 7.20
Benetton -3.62 1.02 -4.60
Cardiff Rugby -5.70 -2.55 -3.10
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Zebre -9.65 -16.17 6.50
Dragons -15.29 -15.41 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 96 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Lions Mar 09 25 – 22 -0.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Lions Mar 22 Lions -4.60
2 Glasgow vs. Munster Mar 22 Glasgow 9.20
3 Sharks vs. Zebre Mar 22 Sharks 16.90
4 Benetton vs. Edinburgh Mar 23 Benetton 0.30
5 Bulls vs. Leinster Mar 23 Leinster -0.80
6 Dragons vs. Ulster Mar 23 Ulster -9.20
7 Ospreys vs. Connacht Mar 23 Ospreys 7.10
8 Scarlets vs. Stormers Mar 23 Stormers -2.20

 

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