Posts filed under Sports statistics (1684)

January 29, 2026

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 9.85 10.30 -0.40
Saracens 8.47 5.03 3.40
Northampton Saints 7.08 -1.47 8.50
Leicester Tigers 6.53 5.55 1.00
Bristol 4.92 3.66 1.30
Exeter Chiefs 3.68 -4.58 8.30
Sale Sharks 2.99 6.70 -3.70
Gloucester -4.03 4.13 -8.20
Harlequins -10.03 -3.02 -7.00
Newcastle Red Bulls -21.61 -18.45 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 50 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Jan 25 3 – 8 7.70 FALSE
2 Gloucester vs. Bath Jan 25 26 – 30 -7.60 TRUE
3 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 25 7 – 36 -6.20 TRUE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Jan 25 29 – 43 5.90 FALSE
5 Saracens vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Jan 25 73 – 14 33.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Saracens Mar 21 Bath 8.40
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Mar 22 Exeter Chiefs 7.70
3 Harlequins vs. Gloucester Mar 22 Harlequins 1.00
4 Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Mar 22 Northampton Saints 35.70
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Mar 23 Leicester Tigers 8.60

 

January 20, 2026

NFL Predictions for the Conference Final

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Team Ratings for the Conference Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Seahawks 11.84 1.60 10.20
Patriots 10.06 -6.88 16.90
Rams 6.30 3.32 3.00
Lions 5.54 9.26 -3.70
Texans 5.51 0.65 4.90
Bills 5.10 8.28 -3.20
Jaguars 4.42 -6.28 10.70
Broncos 3.72 3.65 0.10
Vikings 3.09 2.67 0.40
Ravens 2.84 11.27 -8.40
Packers 2.06 5.92 -3.90
Bears 1.41 -3.03 4.40
Chargers 0.96 2.67 -1.70
Eagles 0.79 12.46 -11.70
49ers 0.61 -3.05 3.70
Bengals 0.48 3.45 -3.00
Steelers -0.75 -0.33 -0.40
Colts -1.15 -5.52 4.40
Falcons -1.19 -3.22 2.00
Chiefs -1.92 3.00 -4.90
Browns -2.14 -9.54 7.40
Giants -2.18 -7.54 5.40
Saints -2.73 -5.63 2.90
Cowboys -4.12 -3.23 -0.90
Dolphins -4.39 0.72 -5.10
Buccaneers -4.55 3.86 -8.40
Panthers -4.81 -7.28 2.50
Commanders -5.09 2.74 -7.80
Raiders -6.18 -5.45 -0.70
Cardinals -7.86 0.58 -8.40
Titans -9.33 -9.40 0.10
Jets -10.49 -3.87 -6.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 282 matches played, 170 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Bills Jan 18 33 – 30 -1.70 FALSE
2 Seahawks vs. 49ers Jan 18 41 – 6 7.60 TRUE
3 Bears vs. Rams Jan 19 17 – 20 -4.20 TRUE
4 Patriots vs. Texans Jan 19 28 – 16 3.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Conference Finals

Here are the predictions for the Conference Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Patriots Jan 19 Patriots -5.30
2 Seahawks vs. Rams Jan 19 Seahawks 6.50

 

January 13, 2026

NFL Predictions for the Divisional Finals

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Team Ratings for the Divisional Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Seahawks 9.51 1.60 7.90
Patriots 8.80 -6.88 15.70
Texans 6.76 0.65 6.10
Rams 6.47 3.32 3.20
Bills 5.76 8.28 -2.50
Lions 5.54 9.26 -3.70
Jaguars 4.42 -6.28 10.70
Vikings 3.09 2.67 0.40
Broncos 3.07 3.65 -0.60
49ers 2.95 -3.05 6.00
Ravens 2.84 11.27 -8.40
Packers 2.06 5.92 -3.90
Bears 1.24 -3.03 4.30
Chargers 0.96 2.67 -1.70
Eagles 0.79 12.46 -11.70
Bengals 0.48 3.45 -3.00
Steelers -0.75 -0.33 -0.40
Colts -1.15 -5.52 4.40
Falcons -1.19 -3.22 2.00
Chiefs -1.92 3.00 -4.90
Browns -2.14 -9.54 7.40
Giants -2.18 -7.54 5.40
Saints -2.73 -5.63 2.90
Cowboys -4.12 -3.23 -0.90
Dolphins -4.39 0.72 -5.10
Buccaneers -4.55 3.86 -8.40
Panthers -4.81 -7.28 2.50
Commanders -5.09 2.74 -7.80
Raiders -6.18 -5.45 -0.70
Cardinals -7.86 0.58 -8.40
Titans -9.33 -9.40 0.10
Jets -10.49 -3.87 -6.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 278 matches played, 167 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Rams Jan 11 31 – 34 -13.10 TRUE
2 Bears vs. Packers Jan 11 31 – 27 -1.30 FALSE
3 Jaguars vs. Bills Jan 12 24 – 27 0.70 FALSE
4 Eagles vs. 49ers Jan 12 19 – 23 -0.10 TRUE
5 Patriots vs. Chargers Jan 12 16 – 3 7.20 TRUE
6 Steelers vs. Texans Jan 13 6 – 30 -2.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Divisional Finals

Here are the predictions for the Divisional Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Bills Jan 18 Bills -1.70
2 Seahawks vs. 49ers Jan 18 Seahawks 7.60
3 Bears vs. Rams Jan 19 Rams -4.20
4 Patriots vs. Texans Jan 19 Patriots 3.00

 

January 6, 2026

NFL Predictions for the Wild Card Games

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Team Ratings for the Wild Card Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Seahawks 9.51 1.60 7.90
Patriots 8.00 -6.88 14.90
Rams 7.89 3.32 4.60
Lions 5.54 9.26 -3.70
Bills 5.24 8.28 -3.00
Jaguars 4.94 -6.28 11.20
Texans 4.88 0.65 4.20
Vikings 3.09 2.67 0.40
Broncos 3.07 3.65 -0.60
Ravens 2.84 11.27 -8.40
Packers 2.80 5.92 -3.10
49ers 2.40 -3.05 5.40
Chargers 1.77 2.67 -0.90
Eagles 1.34 12.46 -11.10
Steelers 1.13 -0.33 1.50
Bears 0.49 -3.03 3.50
Bengals 0.48 3.45 -3.00
Colts -1.15 -5.52 4.40
Falcons -1.19 -3.22 2.00
Chiefs -1.92 3.00 -4.90
Browns -2.14 -9.54 7.40
Giants -2.18 -7.54 5.40
Saints -2.73 -5.63 2.90
Cowboys -4.12 -3.23 -0.90
Dolphins -4.39 0.72 -5.10
Buccaneers -4.55 3.86 -8.40
Commanders -5.09 2.74 -7.80
Raiders -6.18 -5.45 -0.70
Panthers -6.23 -7.28 1.10
Cardinals -7.86 0.58 -8.40
Titans -9.33 -9.40 0.10
Jets -10.49 -3.87 -6.60

Performance So Far

So far there have been 272 matches played, 163 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 49ers vs. Seahawks Jan 04 3 – 13 -4.60 TRUE
2 Buccaneers vs. Panthers Jan 04 16 – 14 2.90 TRUE
3 Falcons vs. Saints Jan 05 19 – 17 2.80 TRUE
4 Bills vs. Jets Jan 05 35 – 8 14.30 TRUE
5 Bears vs. Lions Jan 05 16 – 19 -4.50 TRUE
6 Bengals vs. Browns Jan 05 18 – 20 5.80 FALSE
7 Broncos vs. Chargers Jan 05 19 – 3 -0.80 FALSE
8 Texans vs. Colts Jan 05 38 – 30 6.70 TRUE
9 Jaguars vs. Titans Jan 05 41 – 7 11.30 TRUE
10 Rams vs. Cardinals Jan 05 37 – 20 16.60 TRUE
11 Raiders vs. Chiefs Jan 05 14 – 12 -5.30 FALSE
12 Vikings vs. Packers Jan 05 16 – 3 -1.40 FALSE
13 Patriots vs. Dolphins Jan 05 38 – 10 10.10 TRUE
14 Giants vs. Cowboys Jan 05 34 – 17 -0.20 FALSE
15 Eagles vs. Commanders Jan 05 17 – 24 10.60 FALSE
16 Steelers vs. Ravens Jan 05 26 – 24 -1.80 FALSE

Predictions for the Wild Card Games

Here are the predictions for the Wild Card Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Rams Jan 11 Rams -13.10
2 Bears vs. Packers Jan 11 Packers -1.30
3 Jaguars vs. Bills Jan 12 Jaguars 0.70
4 Eagles vs. 49ers Jan 12 49ers -0.10
5 Patriots vs. Chargers Jan 12 Patriots 7.20
6 Steelers vs. Texans Jan 13 Texans -2.70

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 10

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Team Ratings for Week 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 10.39 13.41 -3.00
Glasgow 9.28 6.18 3.10
Stormers 8.85 4.17 4.70
Bulls 5.47 8.86 -3.40
Munster 2.90 3.65 -0.80
Ulster 2.08 -3.24 5.30
Edinburgh 2.02 2.67 -0.70
Lions -0.02 -1.19 1.20
Sharks -1.48 1.29 -2.80
Ospreys -2.05 -2.15 0.10
Connacht -2.48 -1.39 -1.10
Cardiff Rugby -3.37 -2.74 -0.60
Scarlets -3.54 -0.54 -3.00
Benetton -4.51 -2.32 -2.20
Dragons -11.13 -15.66 4.50
Zebre -12.44 -11.02 -1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 68 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Scarlets Jan 02 28 – 5 -8.50 FALSE
2 Ospreys vs. Cardiff Rugby Jan 02 33 – 22 2.20 TRUE
3 Ulster vs. Munster Jan 03 28 – 3 -1.40 FALSE
4 Sharks vs. Lions Jan 04 22 – 23 1.00 FALSE
5 Stormers vs. Bulls Jan 04 13 – 8 5.50 TRUE
6 Benetton vs. Edinburgh Jan 04 14 – 15 0.90 FALSE
7 Leinster vs. Connacht Jan 04 52 – 17 12.60 TRUE
8 Glasgow vs. Zebre Jan 04 47 – 10 27.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Edinburgh vs. Bulls Jan 24 Edinburgh 3.60
2 Munster vs. Dragons Jan 24 Munster 21.00
3 Ospreys vs. Lions Jan 24 Ospreys 5.00
4 Scarlets vs. Ulster Jan 25 Scarlets 1.40
5 Connacht vs. Leinster Jan 25 Leinster -10.90
6 Stormers vs. Sharks Jan 25 Stormers 12.30
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Benetton Jan 25 Cardiff Rugby 8.10
8 Zebre vs. Glasgow Jan 25 Glasgow -14.70

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 13.78 11.56 2.20
Bordeaux Begles 5.72 4.78 0.90
Section Paloise 3.82 2.21 1.60
Stade Rochelais 3.62 1.22 2.40
Clermont 3.04 1.88 1.20
Montpellier 2.52 -0.21 2.70
Stade Francais 1.79 -2.17 4.00
Toulon 1.54 3.49 -2.00
Racing 92 1.50 1.88 -0.40
Castres Olympique -0.18 0.59 -0.80
Bayonne -1.25 1.48 -2.70
Lyon -1.48 -0.45 -1.00
USA Perpignan -6.10 -3.37 -2.70
Montauban -15.43 -10.00 -5.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 98 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 Jan 04 62 – 20 8.70 TRUE
2 Lyon vs. Section Paloise Jan 04 22 – 17 0.70 TRUE
3 Montauban vs. Clermont Jan 04 19 – 34 -11.60 TRUE
4 Montpellier vs. Bayonne Jan 04 62 – 22 8.40 TRUE
5 Stade Francais vs. Castres Olympique Jan 04 33 – 15 7.70 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 04 30 – 27 -14.60 FALSE
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Toulon Jan 05 66 – 0 5.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Castres Olympique Jan 25 Bayonne 5.40
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Francais Jan 25 Bordeaux Begles 10.40
3 Racing 92 vs. Lyon Jan 25 Racing 92 9.50
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise Jan 25 Stade Toulousain 16.50
5 Toulon vs. Montpellier Jan 25 Toulon 5.50
6 USA Perpignan vs. Montauban Jan 25 USA Perpignan 15.80
7 Clermont vs. Stade Rochelais Jan 26 Clermont 5.90

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 10.21 10.30 -0.10
Saracens 6.62 5.03 1.60
Northampton Saints 5.60 -1.47 7.10
Leicester Tigers 4.86 5.55 -0.70
Exeter Chiefs 4.67 -4.58 9.30
Sale Sharks 4.46 6.70 -2.20
Bristol 3.93 3.66 0.30
Gloucester -4.39 4.13 -8.50
Harlequins -8.37 -3.02 -5.40
Newcastle Red Bulls -19.75 -18.45 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 45 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks Jan 03 19 – 17 7.60 TRUE
2 Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Gloucester Jan 03 25 – 19 -10.90 FALSE
3 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 04 33 – 26 13.90 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Jan 04 66 – 21 16.90 TRUE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Jan 05 36 – 28 4.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Jan 25 Exeter Chiefs 7.70
2 Gloucester vs. Bath Jan 25 Bath -7.60
3 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 25 Leicester Tigers -6.20
4 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Jan 25 Sale Sharks 5.90
5 Saracens vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Jan 25 Saracens 33.40

 

December 30, 2025

NFL Predictions for Week 18

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Team Ratings for Week 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Seahawks 8.75 1.60 7.20
Rams 7.84 3.32 4.50
Patriots 6.37 -6.88 13.30
Lions 5.74 9.26 -3.50
Texans 4.69 0.65 4.00
Packers 4.15 5.92 -1.80
Bills 4.03 8.28 -4.30
Ravens 3.36 11.27 -7.90
Chargers 3.31 2.67 0.60
49ers 3.15 -3.05 6.20
Eagles 2.95 12.46 -9.50
Jaguars 2.95 -6.28 9.20
Vikings 1.74 2.67 -0.90
Bengals 1.57 3.45 -1.90
Broncos 1.53 3.65 -2.10
Steelers 0.60 -0.33 0.90
Bears 0.29 -3.03 3.30
Chiefs -0.90 3.00 -3.90
Colts -0.96 -5.52 4.60
Falcons -1.08 -3.22 2.10
Cowboys -2.55 -3.23 0.70
Dolphins -2.76 0.72 -3.50
Saints -2.84 -5.63 2.80
Browns -3.23 -9.54 6.30
Giants -3.75 -7.54 3.80
Buccaneers -4.42 3.86 -8.30
Panthers -6.36 -7.28 0.90
Commanders -6.70 2.74 -9.40
Raiders -7.20 -5.45 -1.70
Titans -7.34 -9.40 2.10
Cardinals -7.81 0.58 -8.40
Jets -9.27 -3.87 -5.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 256 matches played, 154 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Commanders vs. Cowboys Dec 25 23 – 30 -1.70 TRUE
2 Vikings vs. Lions Dec 25 23 – 10 -6.50 FALSE
3 Chiefs vs. Broncos Dec 25 13 – 20 0.70 FALSE
4 Browns vs. Steelers Dec 28 13 – 6 -5.20 FALSE
5 Colts vs. Jaguars Dec 28 17 – 23 -1.70 TRUE
6 Dolphins vs. Buccaneers Dec 28 20 – 17 2.50 TRUE
7 Jets vs. Patriots Dec 28 10 – 42 -10.90 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Saints Dec 28 26 – 34 -1.80 TRUE
9 Bills vs. Eagles Dec 28 12 – 13 3.30 FALSE
10 49ers vs. Bears Dec 28 42 – 38 3.80 TRUE
11 Packers vs. Ravens Dec 28 24 – 41 5.80 FALSE
12 Chargers vs. Texans Dec 28 16 – 20 1.00 FALSE
13 Falcons vs. Rams Dec 29 27 – 24 -10.50 FALSE
14 Panthers vs. Seahawks Dec 29 10 – 27 -13.00 TRUE
15 Bengals vs. Cardinals Dec 29 37 – 14 7.50 TRUE
16 Raiders vs. Giants Dec 29 10 – 34 2.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 18

Here are the predictions for Week 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Falcons vs. Saints Jan 05 Falcons 2.80
2 Bills vs. Jets Jan 05 Bills 14.30
3 Bears vs. Lions Jan 05 Lions -4.50
4 Bengals vs. Browns Jan 05 Bengals 5.80
5 Broncos vs. Chargers Jan 05 Chargers -0.80
6 Texans vs. Colts Jan 05 Texans 6.70
7 Jaguars vs. Titans Jan 05 Jaguars 11.30
8 Rams vs. Cardinals Jan 05 Rams 16.60
9 Raiders vs. Chiefs Jan 05 Chiefs -5.30
10 Vikings vs. Packers Jan 05 Packers -1.40
11 Patriots vs. Dolphins Jan 05 Patriots 10.10
12 Giants vs. Cowboys Jan 05 Cowboys -0.20
13 Eagles vs. Commanders Jan 05 Eagles 10.60
14 Steelers vs. Ravens Jan 05 Ravens -1.80
15 49ers vs. Seahawks Jan 05 Seahawks -4.60
16 Buccaneers vs. Panthers Jan 05 Buccaneers 2.90

 

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United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 9

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Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 9.26 13.41 -4.10
Stormers 8.90 4.17 4.70
Glasgow 8.69 6.18 2.50
Bulls 5.42 8.86 -3.40
Munster 4.18 3.65 0.50
Edinburgh 1.81 2.67 -0.90
Ulster 0.80 -3.24 4.00
Lions -0.23 -1.19 1.00
Sharks -1.26 1.29 -2.50
Connacht -1.34 -1.39 0.00
Scarlets -2.07 -0.54 -1.50
Ospreys -2.62 -2.15 -0.50
Cardiff Rugby -2.81 -2.74 -0.10
Benetton -4.30 -2.32 -2.00
Zebre -11.84 -11.02 -0.80
Dragons -12.59 -15.66 3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Dragons Dec 27 22 – 19 13.00 TRUE
2 Scarlets vs. Ospreys Dec 27 19 – 26 3.90 FALSE
3 Zebre vs. Benetton Dec 28 23 – 37 -4.30 TRUE
4 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Dec 28 3 – 21 -3.20 TRUE
5 Connacht vs. Ulster Dec 28 24 – 29 1.20 FALSE
6 Munster vs. Leinster Dec 28 8 – 13 -2.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Scarlets Jan 02 Scarlets -8.50
2 Ospreys vs. Cardiff Rugby Jan 02 Ospreys 2.20
3 Ulster vs. Munster Jan 03 Munster -1.40
4 Sharks vs. Lions Jan 04 Sharks 1.00
5 Stormers vs. Bulls Jan 04 Stormers 5.50
6 Benetton vs. Edinburgh Jan 04 Benetton 0.90
7 Leinster vs. Connacht Jan 04 Leinster 12.60
8 Glasgow vs. Zebre Jan 04 Glasgow 27.50

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 14

By

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 14.37 11.56 2.80
Bordeaux Begles 4.73 4.78 -0.10
Section Paloise 4.08 2.21 1.90
Toulon 3.14 3.49 -0.40
Clermont 2.83 1.88 0.90
Racing 92 2.49 1.88 0.60
Stade Rochelais 2.02 1.22 0.80
Montpellier 1.57 -0.21 1.80
Stade Francais 1.40 -2.17 3.60
Castres Olympique 0.21 0.59 -0.40
Bayonne -0.29 1.48 -1.80
Lyon -1.74 -0.45 -1.30
USA Perpignan -6.70 -3.37 -3.30
Montauban -15.23 -10.00 -5.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 91 matches played, 74 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Stade Francais Dec 28 35 – 34 5.30 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Lyon Dec 28 36 – 22 7.70 TRUE
3 Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles Dec 28 34 – 19 3.80 TRUE
4 Racing 92 vs. Montauban Dec 28 61 – 16 22.80 TRUE
5 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier Dec 29 35 – 33 10.00 TRUE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Rochelais Dec 29 60 – 14 17.10 TRUE
7 Toulon vs. USA Perpignan Dec 29 31 – 16 16.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 Jan 04 Bordeaux Begles 8.70
2 Lyon vs. Section Paloise Jan 04 Lyon 0.70
3 Montauban vs. Clermont Jan 04 Clermont -11.60
4 Montpellier vs. Bayonne Jan 04 Montpellier 8.40
5 Stade Francais vs. Castres Olympique Jan 04 Stade Francais 7.70
6 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 04 Stade Toulousain -14.60
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Toulon Jan 05 Stade Rochelais 5.40

 

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