AFL Predictions for the Grand Final
Team Ratings for the Grand Final
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 25.18 | 26.20 | -1.00 |
| Geelong Cats | 24.17 | 26.75 | -2.60 |
| Sydney Swans | 24.04 | 0.56 | 23.50 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 22.14 | 6.56 | 15.60 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 18.94 | 22.83 | -3.90 |
| Adelaide Crows | 12.34 | 15.32 | -3.00 |
| Melbourne Demons | 9.05 | 1.64 | 7.40 |
| Carlton Blues | 6.99 | -4.77 | 11.80 |
| Western Bulldogs | 4.93 | 26.06 | -21.10 |
| Collingwood | 3.06 | 11.76 | -8.70 |
| GWS Giants | -0.48 | 9.54 | -10.00 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -1.87 | 10.24 | -12.10 |
| St Kilda Saints | -3.24 | -7.63 | 4.40 |
| North Melbourne | -10.83 | -21.71 | 10.90 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -18.07 | -14.65 | -3.40 |
| West Coast Eagles | -33.36 | -39.36 | 6.00 |
| Richmond Tigers | -33.74 | -29.44 | -4.30 |
| Essendon Bombers | -37.26 | -27.89 | -9.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 217 matches played, 153 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sydney Swans vs. Fremantle Dockers | Sept 18 | 71 – 83 | 17.40 | FALSE |
| 2 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Brisbane Lions | Sept 19 | 122 – 131 | 7.30 | FALSE |
Predictions for the Grand Final
Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Brisbane Lions | Sept 26 | Brisbane Lions | -3.00 |