Posts filed under Sports statistics (1649)

August 7, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 24

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Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.50 12.99 0.50
Storm 6.81 11.21 -4.40
Broncos 4.17 -5.92 10.10
Cowboys 4.05 6.23 -2.20
Rabbitohs 3.20 9.35 -6.20
Warriors 2.15 -11.12 13.30
Eels 1.89 6.78 -4.90
Sharks 1.85 4.50 -2.70
Knights -0.68 -9.53 8.80
Roosters -1.72 7.64 -9.40
Raiders -2.18 1.98 -4.20
Sea Eagles -3.60 -5.26 1.70
Titans -5.10 -6.32 1.20
Dragons -6.57 -2.73 -3.80
Dolphins -6.90 -10.00 3.10
Wests Tigers -10.86 -13.52 2.70
Bulldogs -11.99 -8.29 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 172 matches played, 104 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Aug 03 26 – 16 4.00 TRUE
2 Titans vs. Warriors Aug 04 18 – 28 0.20 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Storm Aug 04 26 – 6 8.10 TRUE
4 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 05 14 – 30 5.40 FALSE
5 Dolphins vs. Knights Aug 05 28 – 30 -3.60 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Aug 05 16 – 26 6.40 FALSE
7 Eels vs. Dragons Aug 06 26 – 20 12.40 TRUE
8 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Aug 06 22 – 18 13.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Aug 10 Panthers -14.10
2 Sharks vs. Titans Aug 11 Sharks 9.90
3 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 11 Broncos 5.30
4 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Aug 12 Rabbitohs 12.80
5 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Aug 12 Warriors -7.00
6 Roosters vs. Dolphins Aug 12 Roosters 8.20
7 Storm vs. Raiders Aug 13 Storm 12.00
8 Knights vs. Bulldogs Aug 13 Knights 14.30

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 10.94 9.44 1.50
Wellington 8.29 8.72 -0.40
North Harbour 7.57 7.75 -0.20
Hawke’s Bay 5.30 5.12 0.20
Bay of Plenty 3.74 4.55 -0.80
Waikato 3.16 3.71 -0.60
Tasman 3.02 2.20 0.80
Auckland 2.97 2.15 0.80
Otago -0.19 0.62 -0.80
Taranaki -2.92 -2.98 0.10
Northland -5.42 -3.92 -1.50
Counties Manukau -7.50 -7.44 -0.10
Southland -11.72 -12.27 0.60
Manawatu -13.75 -14.18 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Tasman vs. Otago Aug 04 27 – 15 4.60 TRUE
2 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Aug 04 37 – 29 7.50 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Aug 05 23 – 21 0.40 TRUE
4 Manawatu vs. Wellington Aug 05 6 – 22 -19.90 TRUE
5 Northland vs. Canterbury Aug 05 11 – 43 -10.40 TRUE
6 Bay of Plenty vs. Auckland Aug 06 30 – 32 5.40 FALSE
7 Southland vs. Waikato Aug 06 21 – 29 -13.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northland vs. Taranaki Aug 09 Northland 0.50

 

August 1, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 23

By

Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.70 12.99 -0.30
Storm 7.61 11.21 -3.60
Cowboys 5.33 6.23 -0.90
Rabbitohs 4.23 9.35 -5.10
Broncos 2.90 -5.92 8.80
Eels 2.38 6.78 -4.40
Warriors 1.45 -11.12 12.60
Sharks 0.81 4.50 -3.70
Knights -0.50 -9.53 9.00
Raiders -1.54 1.98 -3.50
Roosters -2.18 7.64 -9.80
Sea Eagles -3.14 -5.26 2.10
Titans -4.40 -6.32 1.90
Dragons -7.06 -2.73 -4.30
Dolphins -7.08 -10.00 2.90
Wests Tigers -11.50 -13.52 2.00
Bulldogs -11.99 -8.29 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 164 matches played, 99 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Roosters Jul 27 32 – 10 6.10 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 28 18 – 32 -16.20 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Eels Jul 28 46 – 16 5.40 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Knights Jul 29 6 – 28 5.00 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Jul 29 18 – 24 0.00 FALSE
6 Panthers vs. Sharks Jul 29 28 – 0 13.00 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Dolphins Jul 30 23 – 22 -6.00 FALSE
8 Titans vs. Cowboys Jul 30 22 – 13 -8.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Aug 03 Roosters 4.00
2 Titans vs. Warriors Aug 04 Titans 0.20
3 Panthers vs. Storm Aug 04 Panthers 8.10
4 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 05 Cowboys 5.40
5 Dolphins vs. Knights Aug 05 Knights -3.60
6 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Aug 05 Rabbitohs 6.40
7 Eels vs. Dragons Aug 06 Eels 12.40
8 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Aug 06 Raiders 13.00

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 1

By

Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 9.44 9.44 0.00
Wellington 8.72 8.72 0.00
North Harbour 7.75 7.75 -0.00
Hawke’s Bay 5.12 5.12 0.00
Bay of Plenty 4.55 4.55 -0.00
Waikato 3.71 3.71 -0.00
Tasman 2.20 2.20 -0.00
Auckland 2.15 2.15 -0.00
Otago 0.62 0.62 -0.00
Taranaki -2.98 -2.98 -0.00
Northland -3.92 -3.92 0.00
Counties Manukau -7.44 -7.44 0.00
Southland -12.27 -12.27 0.00
Manawatu -14.18 -14.18 0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Tasman vs. Otago Aug 04 Tasman 4.60
2 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Aug 04 Taranaki 7.50
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Aug 05 Hawke’s Bay 0.40
4 Manawatu vs. Wellington Aug 05 Wellington -19.90
5 Northland vs. Canterbury Aug 05 Canterbury -10.40
6 Bay of Plenty vs. Auckland Aug 06 Bay of Plenty 5.40
7 Southland vs. Waikato Aug 06 Waikato -13.00
8 Northland vs. Taranaki Aug 09 Northland 2.10

 

July 25, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 22

By

Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 11.74 12.99 -1.30
Cowboys 6.44 6.23 0.20
Storm 6.18 11.21 -5.00
Rabbitohs 4.47 9.35 -4.90
Eels 3.81 6.78 -3.00
Broncos 1.89 -5.92 7.80
Sharks 1.78 4.50 -2.70
Warriors 1.45 -11.12 12.60
Raiders -0.00 1.98 -2.00
Roosters -1.18 7.64 -8.80
Knights -2.04 -9.53 7.50
Sea Eagles -3.60 -5.26 1.70
Titans -5.50 -6.32 0.80
Dolphins -6.56 -10.00 3.40
Dragons -6.60 -2.73 -3.90
Wests Tigers -11.74 -13.52 1.80
Bulldogs -12.51 -8.29 -4.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 156 matches played, 95 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Jul 20 18 – 14 9.30 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Raiders Jul 21 21 – 20 8.60 TRUE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Jul 21 20 – 36 8.40 FALSE
4 Titans vs. Roosters Jul 22 18 – 36 1.00 FALSE
5 Knights vs. Storm Jul 22 26 – 18 -7.20 FALSE
6 Cowboys vs. Eels Jul 22 24 – 16 5.00 TRUE
7 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Jul 23 44 – 18 27.60 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Jul 23 26 – 30 10.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Roosters Jul 27 Broncos 6.10
2 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 28 Rabbitohs -16.20
3 Storm vs. Eels Jul 28 Storm 5.40
4 Raiders vs. Knights Jul 29 Raiders 5.00
5 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Jul 29 Dragons 0.00
6 Panthers vs. Sharks Jul 29 Panthers 13.00
7 Bulldogs vs. Dolphins Jul 30 Dolphins -6.00
8 Titans vs. Cowboys Jul 30 Cowboys -8.90

 

July 18, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 21

By

Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 11.91 12.99 -1.10
Storm 7.15 11.21 -4.10
Cowboys 6.10 6.23 -0.10
Rabbitohs 5.89 9.35 -3.50
Eels 4.14 6.78 -2.60
Sharks 2.70 4.50 -1.80
Warriors 2.00 -11.12 13.10
Broncos 0.47 -5.92 6.40
Raiders -0.56 1.98 -2.50
Roosters -2.34 7.64 -10.00
Knights -3.01 -9.53 6.50
Titans -4.34 -6.32 2.00
Sea Eagles -4.52 -5.26 0.70
Dragons -6.02 -2.73 -3.30
Dolphins -6.56 -10.00 3.40
Wests Tigers -12.33 -13.52 1.20
Bulldogs -12.68 -8.29 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 148 matches played, 91 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Jul 14 34 – 18 11.30 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Jul 15 24 – 44 -8.60 TRUE
3 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Jul 15 8 – 19 -6.70 TRUE
4 Roosters vs. Storm Jul 15 16 – 30 -5.20 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Sharks Jul 16 44 – 12 2.00 TRUE
6 Dolphins vs. Panthers Jul 16 14 – 24 -16.40 TRUE
7 Eels vs. Titans Jul 16 25 – 24 13.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Jul 20 Dragons 9.30
2 Warriors vs. Raiders Jul 21 Warriors 8.60
3 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Jul 21 Rabbitohs 8.40
4 Titans vs. Roosters Jul 22 Titans 1.00
5 Knights vs. Storm Jul 22 Storm -7.20
6 Cowboys vs. Eels Jul 22 Cowboys 5.00
7 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Jul 23 Panthers 27.60
8 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Jul 23 Sharks 10.20

 

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July 11, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 20

By

Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.40 12.99 -0.60
Storm 6.52 11.21 -4.70
Rabbitohs 5.89 9.35 -3.50
Cowboys 5.63 6.23 -0.60
Eels 4.95 6.78 -1.80
Sharks 4.37 4.50 -0.10
Warriors 0.33 -11.12 11.50
Broncos -0.30 -5.92 5.60
Raiders -0.56 1.98 -2.50
Roosters -1.71 7.64 -9.40
Knights -3.53 -9.53 6.00
Sea Eagles -4.05 -5.26 1.20
Titans -5.15 -6.32 1.20
Dragons -6.02 -2.73 -3.30
Dolphins -7.05 -10.00 3.00
Wests Tigers -11.81 -13.52 1.70
Bulldogs -11.91 -8.29 -3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 141 matches played, 84 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Jul 06 12 – 36 -11.50 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Raiders Jul 07 26 – 36 -1.20 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Warriors Jul 08 10 – 46 15.80 FALSE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Jul 08 32 – 36 24.00 FALSE
5 Titans vs. Dolphins Jul 09 21 – 23 6.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Jul 14 Knights 11.30
2 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Jul 15 Broncos -8.60
3 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Jul 15 Cowboys -6.70
4 Roosters vs. Storm Jul 15 Storm -5.20
5 Warriors vs. Sharks Jul 16 Warriors 2.00
6 Dolphins vs. Panthers Jul 16 Panthers -16.40
7 Eels vs. Titans Jul 16 Eels 13.10

 

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July 4, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.40 12.99 -0.60
Eels 7.54 6.78 0.80
Rabbitohs 7.47 9.35 -1.90
Storm 6.52 11.21 -4.70
Cowboys 5.63 6.23 -0.60
Sharks 3.54 4.50 -1.00
Broncos -0.30 -5.92 5.60
Raiders -1.18 1.98 -3.20
Roosters -1.71 7.64 -9.40
Warriors -2.26 -11.12 8.90
Knights -3.53 -9.53 6.00
Sea Eagles -4.05 -5.26 1.20
Titans -4.57 -6.32 1.70
Dragons -5.39 -2.73 -2.70
Dolphins -7.63 -10.00 2.40
Wests Tigers -10.98 -13.52 2.50
Bulldogs -13.50 -8.29 -5.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 82 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Dragons Jun 29 52 – 16 8.80 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Rabbitohs Jun 30 6 – 28 -1.20 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Panthers Jun 30 16 – 34 -0.70 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Titans Jul 01 26 – 22 7.10 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers Jul 01 74 – 0 13.80 TRUE
6 Broncos vs. Dolphins Jul 01 24 – 16 11.00 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Knights Jul 02 0 – 66 -0.70 TRUE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Jul 02 18 – 16 0.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Jul 06 Sharks -11.50
2 Dragons vs. Raiders Jul 07 Raiders -1.20
3 Eels vs. Warriors Jul 08 Eels 15.80
4 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Jul 08 Rabbitohs 24.00
5 Titans vs. Dolphins Jul 09 Titans 6.10

 

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June 27, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 18

By

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 11.33 12.99 -1.70
Storm 7.60 11.21 -3.60
Eels 7.54 6.78 0.80
Rabbitohs 6.23 9.35 -3.10
Cowboys 2.71 6.23 -3.50
Sharks 2.00 4.50 -2.50
Broncos 0.03 -5.92 6.00
Raiders -0.85 1.98 -2.80
Warriors -1.02 -11.12 10.10
Roosters -1.52 7.64 -9.20
Dragons -3.85 -2.73 -1.10
Sea Eagles -4.23 -5.26 1.00
Titans -4.90 -6.32 1.40
Knights -6.64 -9.53 2.90
Dolphins -7.96 -10.00 2.00
Wests Tigers -8.06 -13.52 5.50
Bulldogs -10.38 -8.29 -2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 74 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Warriors Jun 23 18 – 48 7.10 FALSE
2 Dolphins vs. Eels Jun 24 20 – 48 -10.30 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Knights Jun 24 20 – 12 22.90 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Jun 24 24 – 6 13.90 TRUE
5 Broncos vs. Titans Jun 25 12 – 18 10.00 FALSE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Jun 25 6 – 31 10.30 FALSE
7 Roosters vs. Raiders Jun 25 18 – 20 3.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Dragons Jun 29 Sharks 8.80
2 Warriors vs. Rabbitohs Jun 30 Rabbitohs -1.20
3 Storm vs. Panthers Jun 30 Panthers -0.70
4 Raiders vs. Titans Jul 01 Raiders 7.10
5 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers Jul 01 Cowboys 13.80
6 Broncos vs. Dolphins Jul 01 Broncos 11.00
7 Bulldogs vs. Knights Jul 02 Knights -0.70
8 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Jul 02 Sea Eagles 0.30

 

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June 20, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 17

By

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.28 12.99 -0.70
Rabbitohs 8.13 9.35 -1.20
Storm 7.15 11.21 -4.10
Eels 6.44 6.78 -0.30
Sharks 2.00 4.50 -2.50
Broncos 1.04 -5.92 7.00
Cowboys 0.80 6.23 -5.40
Roosters -0.91 7.64 -8.60
Raiders -1.46 1.98 -3.40
Dragons -1.87 -2.73 0.90
Warriors -3.00 -11.12 8.10
Sea Eagles -3.79 -5.26 1.50
Titans -5.91 -6.32 0.40
Dolphins -6.87 -10.00 3.10
Knights -7.60 -9.53 1.90
Wests Tigers -8.06 -13.52 5.50
Bulldogs -10.38 -8.29 -2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 121 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Panthers Jun 16 27 – 23 -10.30 FALSE
2 Knights vs. Roosters Jun 17 16 – 18 -4.20 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Jun 17 34 – 4 10.90 TRUE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Jun 17 6 – 28 -10.70 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Jun 18 48 – 10 12.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Warriors Jun 23 Dragons 7.10
2 Dolphins vs. Eels Jun 24 Eels -10.30
3 Panthers vs. Knights Jun 24 Panthers 22.90
4 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Jun 24 Storm 13.90
5 Broncos vs. Titans Jun 25 Broncos 10.00
6 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Jun 25 Rabbitohs 10.30
7 Roosters vs. Raiders Jun 25 Roosters 3.50

 

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