Posts filed under Sports statistics (1803)

April 25, 2023

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 24

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Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 6.71 7.93 -1.20
Sale Sharks 5.18 4.14 1.00
Northampton Saints 2.85 3.99 -1.10
London Irish 2.77 -1.65 4.40
Saracens 2.42 -5.00 7.40
Harlequins 0.55 3.92 -3.40
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Bristol -0.21 -2.43 2.20
Gloucester -1.26 5.92 -7.20
Exeter Chiefs -1.79 3.67 -5.50
Bath -3.79 -9.15 5.40
Newcastle Falcons -10.49 -8.76 -1.70
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 112 matches played, 77 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Apr 23 22 – 21 3.30 TRUE
2 Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks Apr 23 22 – 25 -1.70 TRUE
3 Harlequins vs. Bath Apr 23 35 – 45 11.00 FALSE
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints Apr 23 5 – 66 -3.90 TRUE
5 Saracens vs. London Irish Apr 23 45 – 21 1.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Saracens May 07 Saracens -1.70
2 Bristol vs. Gloucester May 07 Bristol 5.60
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins May 07 Leicester Tigers 10.70
4 London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs May 07 London Irish 9.10
5 Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons May 07 Sale Sharks 20.20

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Pumas 9.11 2.84 6.30
Cheetahs 6.66 4.67 2.00
Bulls 0.27 3.43 -3.20
Sharks 0.07 -1.30 1.40
Griquas -1.15 1.39 -2.50
Western Province -1.88 -3.24 1.40
Lions -8.45 -7.79 -0.70
Griffons -14.64 -10.00 -4.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Apr 21 17 – 24 13.30 FALSE
2 Pumas vs. Western Province Apr 22 25 – 24 17.20 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Lions Apr 23 30 – 19 13.10 TRUE
4 Griquas vs. Griffons Apr 23 42 – 27 18.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Pumas Apr 29 Pumas -13.60
2 Cheetahs vs. Griffons Apr 29 Cheetahs 25.30
3 Sharks vs. Griquas Apr 30 Sharks 5.20
4 Western Province vs. Bulls Apr 30 Western Province 1.80

 

April 18, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.62 12.99 0.60
Rabbitohs 9.94 9.35 0.60
Storm 7.58 11.21 -3.60
Roosters 4.37 7.64 -3.30
Eels 4.33 6.78 -2.40
Raiders 2.23 1.98 0.30
Sharks 2.07 4.50 -2.40
Cowboys 1.21 6.23 -5.00
Broncos -0.65 -5.92 5.30
Dragons -1.06 -2.73 1.70
Sea Eagles -3.18 -5.26 2.10
Dolphins -6.75 -10.00 3.20
Titans -7.06 -6.32 -0.70
Warriors -7.14 -11.12 4.00
Bulldogs -8.89 -8.29 -0.60
Knights -9.85 -9.53 -0.30
Wests Tigers -12.76 -13.52 0.80

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 53.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dolphins vs. Rabbitohs Apr 13 14 – 36 -12.30 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Roosters Apr 14 22 – 12 -0.80 FALSE
3 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Apr 14 18 – 8 -10.20 FALSE
4 Warriors vs. Cowboys Apr 15 22 – 14 -3.90 FALSE
5 Knights vs. Panthers Apr 15 15 – 16 -23.10 TRUE
6 Titans vs. Broncos Apr 15 26 – 43 -1.40 TRUE
7 Raiders vs. Dragons Apr 16 20 – 14 6.40 TRUE
8 Eels vs. Bulldogs Apr 16 30 – 4 14.70 TRUE

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Apr 20 Panthers -0.70
2 Eels vs. Broncos Apr 21 Eels 8.00
3 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Apr 22 Sharks -8.00
4 Cowboys vs. Knights Apr 22 Cowboys 14.10
5 Dolphins vs. Titans Apr 23 Dolphins 3.30
6 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Apr 23 Sea Eagles -6.60
7 Roosters vs. Dragons Apr 25 Roosters 8.40
8 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 Storm 20.70
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United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 18

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Team Ratings for Week 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.78 16.79 -1.00
Munster 10.04 9.78 0.30
Ulster 9.65 9.27 0.40
Stormers 8.35 7.14 1.20
Bulls 6.59 7.84 -1.20
Glasgow 4.65 -0.00 4.70
Sharks 4.37 6.95 -2.60
Connacht 2.81 -1.60 4.40
Edinburgh 0.41 3.58 -3.20
Scarlets -1.01 -1.23 0.20
Lions -2.81 -1.74 -1.10
Benetton -3.66 -3.68 0.00
Ospreys -3.78 -0.83 -3.00
Cardiff Rugby -6.44 -7.42 1.00
Dragons -9.92 -11.81 1.90
Zebre -18.99 -16.99 -2.00

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 98 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Benetton Apr 15 43 – 33 13.20 TRUE
2 Glasgow vs. Scarlets Apr 15 12 – 9 11.00 TRUE
3 Ulster vs. Dragons Apr 15 40 – 19 24.80 TRUE
4 Lions vs. Leinster Apr 15 36 – 39 -15.20 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Zebre Apr 16 78 – 12 27.50 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Munster Apr 16 24 – 26 4.00 FALSE
7 Connacht vs. Cardiff Rugby Apr 16 38 – 19 12.40 TRUE
8 Edinburgh vs. Ospreys Apr 16 45 – 21 7.20 TRUE

Predictions for Week 18

Here are the predictions for Week 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stormers vs. Benetton Apr 22 Stormers 16.50
2 Ulster vs. Edinburgh Apr 22 Ulster 13.70
3 Lions vs. Zebre Apr 22 Lions 20.70
4 Dragons vs. Scarlets Apr 23 Scarlets -4.90
5 Bulls vs. Leinster Apr 23 Leinster -4.70
6 Ospreys vs. Cardiff Rugby Apr 23 Ospreys 6.70
7 Sharks vs. Munster Apr 23 Munster -1.20
8 Glasgow vs. Connacht Apr 23 Glasgow 6.30

Top 14 Predictions for Round 23

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Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 8.29 6.88 1.40
Stade Toulousain 7.16 6.34 0.80
Toulon 5.38 4.09 1.30
Bordeaux Begles 4.72 5.27 -0.50
Stade Francais 3.43 -1.05 4.50
Lyon 3.27 3.10 0.20
Montpellier 3.21 4.18 -1.00
Racing 92 2.99 4.86 -1.90
Clermont 1.69 4.05 -2.40
Castres Olympique 0.69 2.87 -2.20
Aviron Bayonnais -0.64 -4.26 3.60
Section Paloise -1.61 -2.12 0.50
USA Perpignan -4.64 -2.75 -1.90
Brive -6.66 -4.20 -2.50

Performance So Far

So far there have been 154 matches played, 110 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brive vs. Stade Francais Apr 15 22 – 27 -3.40 TRUE
2 La Rochelle vs. Aviron Bayonnais Apr 15 26 – 6 14.90 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique Apr 15 19 – 28 10.30 FALSE
4 Racing 92 vs. Bordeaux Begles Apr 15 31 – 28 5.00 TRUE
5 Section Paloise vs. Clermont Apr 15 23 – 18 3.00 TRUE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon Apr 15 36 – 31 11.00 TRUE
7 Toulon vs. USA Perpignan Apr 15 37 – 15 15.90 TRUE

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Montpellier Apr 22 Aviron Bayonnais 2.70
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Lyon Apr 22 Bordeaux Begles 8.00
3 Brive vs. Section Paloise Apr 22 Brive 1.40
4 Castres Olympique vs. Toulon Apr 22 Castres Olympique 1.80
5 La Rochelle vs. Clermont Apr 22 La Rochelle 13.10
6 Stade Francais vs. Stade Toulousain Apr 22 Stade Francais 2.80
7 USA Perpignan vs. Racing 92 Apr 22 Racing 92 -1.10

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 9

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Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.83 17.95 -1.10
Blues 13.21 12.34 0.90
Chiefs 11.63 8.81 2.80
Hurricanes 10.42 9.59 0.80
Brumbies 7.32 6.64 0.70
Highlanders 2.99 5.04 -2.10
Reds 0.60 1.89 -1.30
Waratahs -1.27 -2.50 1.20
Western Force -5.98 -5.54 -0.40
Rebels -6.51 -6.19 -0.30
Fijian Drua -9.33 -10.50 1.20
Moana Pasifika -11.27 -8.91 -2.40

Performance So Far

So far there have been 44 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Reds Apr 14 28 – 40 -5.80 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Fijian Drua Apr 14 43 – 28 20.70 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 15 17 – 33 3.80 FALSE
4 Waratahs vs. Western Force Apr 15 36 – 16 7.10 TRUE

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Fijian Drua Apr 21 Chiefs 26.50
2 Rebels vs. Crusaders Apr 21 Crusaders -17.80
3 Blues vs. Waratahs Apr 22 Blues 20.00
4 Western Force vs. Highlanders Apr 22 Highlanders -3.50

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 23

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Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 6.71 7.93 -1.20
Sale Sharks 5.08 4.14 0.90
London Irish 3.88 -1.65 5.50
Harlequins 1.61 3.92 -2.30
Saracens 1.31 -5.00 6.30
Northampton Saints 0.36 3.99 -3.60
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Bristol -0.39 -2.43 2.00
Gloucester -1.16 5.92 -7.10
Exeter Chiefs -1.61 3.67 -5.30
Bath -4.85 -9.15 4.30
Newcastle Falcons -8.00 -8.76 0.80
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

Performance So Far

So far there have been 107 matches played, 73 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks Apr 16 20 – 36 0.80 FALSE
2 Gloucester vs. Bath Apr 16 24 – 33 10.20 FALSE
3 Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 16 48 – 20 12.50 TRUE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 16 62 – 19 9.70 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens Apr 16 38 – 29 2.80 TRUE

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Apr 23 Exeter Chiefs 3.30
2 Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks Apr 23 Sale Sharks -1.70
3 Harlequins vs. Bath Apr 23 Harlequins 11.00
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints Apr 23 Northampton Saints -3.90
5 Saracens vs. London Irish Apr 23 Saracens 1.90

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Pumas 10.22 2.84 7.40
Cheetahs 8.01 4.67 3.30
Bulls 0.45 3.43 -3.00
Griquas -0.91 1.39 -2.30
Sharks -1.28 -1.30 0.00
Western Province -2.99 -3.24 0.30
Lions -8.62 -7.79 -0.80
Griffons -14.87 -10.00 -4.90

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Bulls Apr 15 20 – 24 3.40 FALSE
2 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Apr 16 17 – 26 -6.60 TRUE
3 Griffons vs. Pumas Apr 16 6 – 64 -15.90 TRUE
4 Lions vs. Griquas Apr 17 18 – 25 -3.10 TRUE

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Apr 21 Cheetahs 13.30
2 Pumas vs. Western Province Apr 22 Pumas 17.20
3 Bulls vs. Lions Apr 23 Bulls 13.10
4 Griquas vs. Griffons Apr 23 Griquas 18.00
April 11, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 14.92 12.99 1.90
Rabbitohs 9.27 9.35 -0.10
Storm 8.80 11.21 -2.40
Roosters 5.11 7.64 -2.50
Eels 3.56 6.78 -3.20
Raiders 2.27 1.98 0.30
Cowboys 2.01 6.23 -4.20
Sharks 1.33 4.50 -3.20
Dragons -1.11 -2.73 1.60
Broncos -1.64 -5.92 4.30
Sea Eagles -4.39 -5.26 0.90
Titans -6.07 -6.32 0.20
Dolphins -6.08 -10.00 3.90
Warriors -7.94 -11.12 3.20
Bulldogs -8.12 -8.29 0.20
Knights -11.15 -9.53 -1.60
Wests Tigers -12.76 -13.52 0.80

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 52.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Roosters Apr 06 28 – 8 4.70 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Apr 07 16 – 50 -11.80 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Dolphins Apr 07 22 – 32 13.90 FALSE
4 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Apr 08 44 – 12 20.80 TRUE
5 Broncos vs. Raiders Apr 08 14 – 20 0.00 FALSE
6 Titans vs. Dragons Apr 09 20 – 18 -3.10 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Warriors Apr 09 34 – 24 1.60 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Apr 10 22 – 28 -14.50 TRUE

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dolphins vs. Rabbitohs Apr 13 Rabbitohs -12.30
2 Sharks vs. Roosters Apr 14 Roosters -0.80
3 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Apr 14 Storm -10.20
4 Warriors vs. Cowboys Apr 15 Cowboys -3.90
5 Knights vs. Panthers Apr 15 Panthers -23.10
6 Titans vs. Broncos Apr 15 Broncos -1.40
7 Raiders vs. Dragons Apr 16 Raiders 6.40
8 Eels vs. Bulldogs Apr 16 Eels 14.70

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 8

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Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.83 17.95 -1.10
Blues 13.21 12.34 0.90
Hurricanes 11.18 9.59 1.60
Chiefs 10.87 8.81 2.10
Brumbies 7.60 6.64 1.00
Highlanders 2.99 5.04 -2.10
Reds 0.29 1.89 -1.60
Waratahs -1.81 -2.50 0.70
Western Force -5.44 -5.54 0.10
Rebels -6.51 -6.19 -0.30
Fijian Drua -9.62 -10.50 0.90
Moana Pasifika -10.97 -8.91 -2.10

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 07 38 – 21 32.60 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 07 24 – 52 -1.90 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Apr 08 14 – 29 -3.70 TRUE
4 Rebels vs. Blues Apr 08 17 – 54 -12.40 TRUE

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Reds Apr 14 Reds -5.80
2 Brumbies vs. Fijian Drua Apr 14 Brumbies 20.70
3 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 15 Hurricanes 3.80
4 Waratahs vs. Western Force Apr 15 Waratahs 7.10
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