Posts filed under Sports statistics (1772)

August 24, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 6.83 6.83 0.00
La Rochelle 6.78 6.78 -0.00
Racing-Metro 92 6.13 6.13 -0.00
Bordeaux-Begles 5.42 5.42 0.00
Clermont Auvergne 5.09 5.09 -0.00
Lyon Rugby 4.15 4.15 -0.00
RC Toulonnais 1.82 1.82 0.00
Stade Francais Paris 1.20 1.20 -0.00
Castres Olympique 0.94 0.94 -0.00
Montpellier -0.01 -0.01 -0.00
Section Paloise -2.25 -2.25 -0.00
Biarritz -2.78 -2.78 -0.00
USA Perpignan -2.78 -2.78 -0.00
Brive -3.19 -3.19 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Biarritz vs. Bordeaux-Begles Sep 04 Bordeaux-Begles -1.70
2 Brive vs. USA Perpignan Sep 05 Brive 6.10
3 Castres Olympique vs. Section Paloise Sep 05 Castres Olympique 9.70
4 Stade Francais Paris vs. Racing-Metro 92 Sep 05 Stade Francais Paris 1.60
5 RC Toulonnais vs. Montpellier Sep 05 RC Toulonnais 8.30
6 Lyon Rugby vs. Clermont Auvergne Sep 06 Lyon Rugby 5.60
7 La Rochelle vs. Stade Toulousain Sep 06 La Rochelle 6.50

 

NRL Predictions for Round 24

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Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 21.58 14.53 7.00
Rabbitohs 13.37 7.73 5.60
Panthers 12.38 8.88 3.50
Sea Eagles 11.80 -4.77 16.60
Roosters 5.93 10.25 -4.30
Eels 1.43 1.68 -0.30
Raiders 0.46 6.98 -6.50
Sharks -1.90 -0.76 -1.10
Titans -1.97 -7.22 5.30
Warriors -5.29 -1.84 -3.40
Knights -5.70 -2.61 -3.10
Wests Tigers -7.50 -3.07 -4.40
Dragons -8.75 -4.95 -3.80
Broncos -9.91 -11.16 1.20
Cowboys -12.91 -8.05 -4.90
Bulldogs -15.01 -7.62 -7.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 176 matches played, 129 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Titans vs. Storm Aug 19 20 – 34 -22.00 TRUE
2 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Aug 20 18 – 19 -13.60 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Aug 20 25 – 12 -3.90 FALSE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Aug 21 20 – 50 -0.60 TRUE
5 Bulldogs vs. Knights Aug 21 16 – 22 -10.10 TRUE
6 Eels vs. Cowboys Aug 21 32 – 16 13.90 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Roosters Aug 22 22 – 40 -13.90 TRUE
8 Broncos vs. Warriors Aug 22 24 – 22 -2.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Knights vs. Titans Aug 26 Titans -3.70
2 Warriors vs. Raiders Aug 27 Raiders -5.70
3 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Aug 27 Rabbitohs -7.40
4 Dragons vs. Cowboys Aug 28 Dragons 4.20
5 Sharks vs. Broncos Aug 28 Sharks 5.00
6 Storm vs. Eels Aug 28 Storm 20.10
7 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Aug 29 Sea Eagles 26.80
8 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Aug 29 Panthers 19.90

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 6.26 5.14 1.10
Sharks 6.26 5.19 1.10
Western Province 1.17 3.28 -2.10
Lions -1.88 3.74 -5.60
Cheetahs -3.13 -2.17 -1.00
Pumas -3.41 -5.67 2.30
Griquas -5.26 -9.50 4.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Western Province Aug 21 46 – 25 -5.20 FALSE
2 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Aug 21 28 – 19 2.00 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Sharks Aug 22 14 – 56 -2.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Pumas Aug 28 Griquas 1.20
2 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Aug 29 Bulls 12.40
3 Sharks vs. Western Province Aug 29 Sharks 8.10

 

August 19, 2021

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 6.26 5.14 1.10
Sharks 5.08 5.19 -0.10
Western Province 2.05 3.28 -1.20
Lions -0.71 3.74 -4.50
Cheetahs -2.78 -2.17 -0.60
Pumas -3.76 -5.67 1.90
Griquas -6.15 -9.50 3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 29 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Bulls Aug 18 26 – 33 -7.00 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Aug 18 33 – 32 7.00 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Lions Aug 19 35 – 13 4.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Western Province Aug 21 Western Province -5.20
2 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Aug 21 Pumas 2.00
3 Lions vs. Sharks Aug 22 Sharks -2.80

 

August 17, 2021

NRL Predictions for Round 23

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Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 22.30 14.53 7.80
Rabbitohs 14.84 7.73 7.10
Sea Eagles 12.90 -4.77 17.70
Panthers 10.91 8.88 2.00
Roosters 5.55 10.25 -4.70
Eels 1.22 1.68 -0.50
Raiders -0.65 6.98 -7.60
Titans -2.69 -7.22 4.50
Sharks -4.38 -0.76 -3.60
Warriors -4.87 -1.84 -3.00
Wests Tigers -5.02 -3.07 -2.00
Knights -5.32 -2.61 -2.70
Dragons -8.37 -4.95 -3.40
Broncos -10.32 -11.16 0.80
Cowboys -12.71 -8.05 -4.70
Bulldogs -15.39 -7.62 -7.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 123 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Raiders Aug 12 26 – 16 25.70 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Panthers Aug 13 16 – 34 -19.60 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Roosters Aug 13 20 – 21 -15.40 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Aug 14 36 – 6 11.30 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers Aug 14 16 – 24 -7.60 TRUE
6 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Aug 14 56 – 10 4.80 TRUE
7 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Aug 15 24 – 10 9.70 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Knights Aug 15 14 – 16 1.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Titans vs. Storm Aug 19 Storm -22.00
2 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Aug 20 Sea Eagles -13.60
3 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Aug 20 Rabbitohs -3.90
4 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Aug 21 Sharks -0.60
5 Bulldogs vs. Knights Aug 21 Knights -10.10
6 Eels vs. Cowboys Aug 21 Eels 13.90
7 Dragons vs. Roosters Aug 22 Roosters -13.90
8 Broncos vs. Warriors Aug 22 Warriors -2.40

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 11.35 10.71 0.60
Auckland 8.62 7.95 0.70
Wellington 7.15 5.62 1.50
Bay of Plenty 5.07 5.20 -0.10
Canterbury 4.57 6.44 -1.90
Waikato 4.41 2.52 1.90
North Harbour 4.04 5.75 -1.70
Hawke’s Bay 3.75 4.07 -0.30
Taranaki -1.10 -4.52 3.40
Otago -4.74 -3.47 -1.30
Northland -9.00 -4.75 -4.20
Southland -10.73 -10.39 -0.30
Counties Manukau -11.10 -10.22 -0.90
Manawatu -12.13 -14.72 2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. North Harbour Aug 13 6 – 14 -12.40 TRUE
2 Tasman vs. Auckland Aug 14 16 – 11 6.50 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Aug 14 34 – 10 10.10 TRUE
4 Canterbury vs. Manawatu Aug 14 25 – 22 22.80 TRUE
5 Southland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 15 11 – 31 -11.00 TRUE
6 Waikato vs. Wellington Aug 15 43 – 37 -0.40 FALSE
7 Northland vs. Taranaki Aug 15 14 – 48 -0.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Southland Aug 20 North Harbour 18.30
2 Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 21 Canterbury 4.30
3 Waikato vs. Taranaki Aug 21 Waikato 9.00
4 Auckland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 21 Auckland 7.10
5 Northland vs. Otago Aug 22 Otago -0.80
6 Tasman vs. Counties Manukau Aug 22 Tasman 25.90
7 Manawatu vs. Wellington Aug 22 Wellington -15.80

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

I missed predicting Round 11 last week, because of two games being played in the week. Same again this week it seems so I will give predictions for Round 13 after the completion of the Round 12 games.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 6.26 5.14 1.10
Sharks 5.08 5.19 -0.10
Western Province 1.38 3.28 -1.90
Lions -0.04 3.74 -3.80
Cheetahs -2.46 -2.17 -0.30
Pumas -3.76 -5.67 1.90
Griquas -6.46 -9.50 3.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 26 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Province vs. Pumas Aug 14 40 – 40 9.00 FALSE
2 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Aug 14 38 – 31 11.00 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Bulls Aug 15 21 – 48 -1.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Bulls Aug 18 Bulls -7.00
2 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Aug 18 Cheetahs 7.00
3 Western Province vs. Lions Aug 19 Western Province 4.40

 

August 10, 2021

NRL Predictions for Round 22

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Team Ratings for Round 22

These predictions are preliminary only, because game locations are mainly listed as TBA. The only games on the NRL site with an actual location are the home games for the Broncos and Cowboys. Yesterday the NRL even had the Warriors playing at home in Auckland, so uncertainty abounds. I have treated all the TBA listed games as being played on neutral grounds, except the Rabbitohs versus Titans which I have predicted as if it were a home game for the Titans.

I will update later in the week if things change.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 23.66 14.53 9.10
Rabbitohs 13.22 7.73 5.50
Panthers 11.07 8.88 2.20
Sea Eagles 9.49 -4.77 14.30
Roosters 6.81 10.25 -3.40
Eels 4.64 1.68 3.00
Titans -1.07 -7.22 6.20
Raiders -2.02 6.98 -9.00
Sharks -4.05 -0.76 -3.30
Wests Tigers -5.06 -3.07 -2.00
Warriors -5.27 -1.84 -3.40
Knights -5.66 -2.61 -3.10
Dragons -8.53 -4.95 -3.60
Broncos -11.58 -11.16 -0.40
Cowboys -12.67 -8.05 -4.60
Bulldogs -14.99 -7.62 -7.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 160 matches played, 116 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Broncos Aug 05 28 – 20 5.40 TRUE
2 Raiders vs. Dragons Aug 06 20 – 12 6.10 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Aug 06 12 – 40 -4.60 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Sharks Aug 07 18 – 16 -2.00 FALSE
5 Roosters vs. Panthers Aug 07 14 – 20 -3.80 TRUE
6 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Aug 07 18 – 28 -15.10 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Aug 08 16 – 28 -9.40 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Cowboys Aug 08 36 – 14 13.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Raiders Aug 12 Storm 25.70
2 Dragons vs. Panthers Aug 13 Panthers -19.60
3 Broncos vs. Roosters Aug 13 Roosters -15.40
4 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Aug 14 Rabbitohs 11.30
5 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers Aug 14 Wests Tigers -7.60
6 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Aug 14 Sea Eagles 4.80
7 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Aug 15 Warriors 9.70
8 Sharks vs. Knights Aug 15 Sharks 1.60

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 11.49 10.71 0.80
Auckland 8.49 7.95 0.50
Wellington 7.72 5.62 2.10
Canterbury 5.90 6.44 -0.50
North Harbour 4.43 5.75 -1.30
Bay of Plenty 4.42 5.20 -0.80
Waikato 3.84 2.52 1.30
Hawke’s Bay 2.79 4.07 -1.30
Taranaki -3.24 -4.52 1.30
Otago -3.77 -3.47 -0.30
Northland -6.85 -4.75 -2.10
Southland -10.08 -10.39 0.30
Counties Manukau -11.50 -10.22 -1.30
Manawatu -13.45 -14.72 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Manawatu vs. Counties Manukau Aug 06 39 – 21 -1.00 FALSE
2 Taranaki vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 07 33 – 19 -5.10 FALSE
3 Wellington vs. Northland Aug 07 54 – 7 13.90 TRUE
4 Otago vs. Southland Aug 07 26 – 19 10.40 TRUE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Tasman Aug 08 14 – 27 -2.00 TRUE
6 North Harbour vs. Waikato Aug 08 15 – 28 6.70 FALSE
7 Auckland vs. Canterbury Aug 08 35 – 24 5.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Counties Manukau vs. North Harbour Aug 13 North Harbour -12.40
2 Tasman vs. Auckland Aug 14 Tasman 6.50
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Aug 14 Hawke’s Bay 10.10
4 Canterbury vs. Manawatu Aug 14 Canterbury 22.80
5 Southland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 15 Bay of Plenty -11.00
6 Waikato vs. Wellington Aug 15 Wellington -0.40
7 Northland vs. Taranaki Aug 15 Taranaki -0.10

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

I got caught again this week with the Sharks versus Bulls game, which was originally listed to be a home game for the Bulls, but in fact was played in Durban. I think it was thus the Round 6 game. I have changed the prediction to reflect the reality of where the game was played so that my ratings are properly updated for future predictions.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.32 5.19 0.10
Bulls 4.98 5.14 -0.20
Western Province 1.80 3.28 -1.50
Lions 0.88 3.74 -2.90
Cheetahs -2.76 -2.17 -0.60
Pumas -4.18 -5.67 1.50
Griquas -6.04 -9.50 3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Lions Aug 06 42 – 45 -4.10 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Bulls Aug 07 35 – 28 2.90 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Aug 07 40 – 39 8.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Sharks Aug 11 Sharks -6.50
2 Bulls vs. Griquas Aug 11 Bulls 14.00
3 Cheetahs vs. Lions Aug 12 Lions -0.60

 

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